Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/5/16

February 5, 2016

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s baseball chat until we stop

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: or drop

9:10	Alex: If both careers ended right now, whose would you rather have, Tim Lincecum or Buster Posey? 2x Cy Young,2 other top 10 finishes, and 3x WS winner, vs RoY, 1x Comeback, 1x Hank Aaron, 2x Silver Slugger, 1x MVP, and 3x WS winner?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I think I’d rather have Posey’s, for a variety of reasons, including how his career in this example would’ve ended abruptly whereas Lincecum has trailed off

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Posey hasn’t shown signs of weakness or decline, while we’ve watched Lincecum disappear into almost nothing. Granted! I’m very interested to see what Lincecum is in 2016, since there’s some chance his hip surgery will restore his stuff. Stay tuned!

9:12	Kylo Ren: Jeff I’d like to know who you read on a regular basis for baseball. I get such enjoyment from FG that if you have other excellent writers or websites, please share!

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: I of course read a lot of FG and a good amount of BP. The guys I’ve always pointed to are Grant Brisbee, Sam Miller, and Ben Lindbergh, not that they’re by any means the only good writers. Twitter is helpful because I feel like I don’t miss that much because people I like will bring to my attention pieces from other people or other places I might not frequent

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: I feel like most of what I do is read. It’s hard to keep track of because while I have my regular destinations, other places and people just pop up if I see a link or run a certain search query. There’s so much good and/or interesting writing and analysis that it’s freaking hard to carve out time to write for yourself

9:16	Guest: If we had the data, who do you think would have the highest statcast Effective Velocity of all time, and what would it be? My guess is Randy Johnson, pushing 107-8ish.

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: Aroldis Chapman probably throws harder than anyone ever, and he was beaten out this year by Carter Capps in terms of perceived velocity. It’s plainly obvious how Capps gets his boost and Randy Johnson has just five inches on Capps’ height. Is that balanced out by Capps’ jump forward in his delivery?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: So the answer could very well be Capps, today (or, last year). Maybe that’s uninteresting. There’s some chance it’s Randy Johnson, but even if it were, I imagine he’d be around 102, not 107-108

9:19	The Dude of NY: I have a really bad sinus infection: would it be wise for me to hook up an aquarium pump to my sinuses?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the answer to this but I do know something interesting I recently learned! Sinus infections can routinely cause upper toothaches. Tooth nerves run through the sinus cavity such that when your sinuses are acting up, you can get a sort of “jostling discomfort” in your teeth when you’re, say, jogging

9:20	Johnny5Alive: thoughts on super bowl

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: no question in my mind, it will be a football game

9:21	The Dude of NY: I forget: do you think the Mets or Nationals have the upper hand in 2016?\

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mets have a slight edge, but I think the two teams are closer than they’re perceived to be

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I like the Mets’ depth at the moment, but then I also think the Nationals are more likely to go out and get better, like, say, behind the plate

9:23

j6takish: What are the white sox doing? They had huge holes in the outfield and at shortstop, they had a protected first round pick, they have LaRoche and gavin Floyd coming off the books next year and fowler, desmond and upton were all unsigned until mid January. Plus they don’t have any big arb raises to worry about because all their good players are signed to below market deals. This has to be a catastrophic failure right?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: (I assume you mean John Danks, not Gavin Floyd)

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: From one perspective the White Sox wound up in a difficult position because they were simultaneously thin in the majors and thin on the farm. They’ve done a little bit this offseason to address the lack of depth, but considering where we are now, remember that Desmond and Fowler are still out there. Plus a guy like Desmond Jennings. The offseason is almost over, but it’s not completely over, and the Sox still have maybe the most obvious fits for the two best remaining position players

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Desmond has been linked to Tampa Bay, but if that was going to happen I feel like it might’ve happened by now. I don’t know where else Fowler might go. The Sox can get better if they sign either of these guys. Maybe they should sign both

9:28	Guest: The Angels went 35-17 in one run games. That is incredible! Why is no one talking about that? If they are even .500 in one run games this year, that team could feasibly be picking in the top 5 with Mike freaking Trout on it, couldnt it?

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: The Angels definitely have a certain amount of crater potential. Specifically because of Trout, it’s hard to see them completely bottoming out, but it’s insane how much of a difference Trout makes for that whole organization. If it weren’t for him, they could be a complete wreck. He makes them competitive almost on his own

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Now that’s not really a shot at the Angels — they HAVE Trout, and that’s their big advantage. But to this point they’ve done a bad job of surrounding him

9:30	Raindog: Jeff, since when did you have illustration skills? More, please.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: 30 years from now I’ll still be working in MS Paint while everyone else is building holograms

9:31	Radermecher: Jeff,why does Dee Gordon get less respect than Rodney?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Little dude, doesn’t hit the ball hard. He doesn’t look like he should be good, so people make that assumption

9:32	Alex: 3 years ago, people were legitimately debating the best franchise starter between Trout, Harper, and Machado. After Harper’s and Machados injuries, the debate subsided. Is it now a valid discussion again?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Harper definitely helped himself a lot — he’s won people back over to his side. Machado’s emergence was quieter. For me, it’s now Trout by a little over Harper, who’s a little over Machado. Machado gets the least respect of the three

9:33	The Dude of NY: Do you prefer using K% or K/9, and why?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: K%. K/9 can be skewed by efficiency or inefficiency

9:34	Ryan : It seems like Carson’s existence is indicative of something. Is he the next step in human evolution or the beginning of the end?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I think Carson is a visitor from another world who found out he can’t go home, so he’s had to try to blend in with a most unfamiliar species

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: He’s gotten so close, but that’s precisely what makes him stand out. Uncanny valley sort of thing

9:36

TF Fredrik: To me defining ace would mean they have the stats, stuff, & health over ‘X’ amount of innings or time. So Ace = > 25%K, < 6%BB & 2.5%HR, >500 innings over last 3 years. With that you get Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, Felix, Kluber, Strasburg, & Bumgarner. Only argument I could see is maybe against Stras (health, maybe stats argument), no?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know about the strikeout cutoff — Roy Halladay, for example, got his strikeouts, but he wasn’t a strikeout pitcher, and he was obviously an ace. I do feel like you need to have a proven track record; I don’t know if a “pop-up” pitcher can count as an ace yet. (Say, Keuchel.) But to be totally honest, I haven’t yet thought about this in depth. I don’t know my own true feelings and this is why I’m very interested to examine the community polling results

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Strasburg suffers from a perception problem. Don’t know how fair that is but I don’t think people within the industry see him as an ace. Plenty of fans certainly don’t

9:41	AKA22: Who do you think opens the season in the Braves rotation? Will they give a lot of the young guys a chance, or will we get the joy of watching Norris, Chacin, and Kendrick day in and day out?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: The Braves *want* to see a lot of the young guys. The veterans they have would be pretty easy to displace. They’ve just had to assemble some measure of depth because they want to avoid what last year’s pitching staff became. Don’t worry too much about the opening rotation — worry more about the rotation on, say, June 1

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: If a young pitcher is being frozen out of the rotation by Kyle Kendrick, it’s 99% because the young pitcher hasn’t yet been good enough

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: In which case you wouldn’t want to see him

9:43

Brett W: I want to clarify my off-season narrative notes. The Zimmerman and Upton contracts were largely seen as reasonable, and the Davis contract was seen as a team mistake. But Mike Ilitch is the one who is mortgaging the team’s future because he is old, but the slightly older Peter Angelos isn’t. Sound right?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: The issue with the Tigers’ future is bigger than just Zimmermann and Upton. And the Orioles don’t have a lot of future committed money other than Davis. The simplistic interpretation is that Ilitch has been much more free with his money than Angelos has. So now people view the Tigers through that lens.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: As always, reality is less extreme than narrative. The Tigers aren’t quite as screwed as people say. And the Davis contract is problematic, even if for now that money is in part coming from a separate budget

9:47	Josh: Do you think something could work out trade wise between the Dodgers and White Sox?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Report from yesterday is, no

9:47	The Dude of NY: Which team has a better 6 year window: the Astros or the Cubs?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Cubs. More resources

9:48	lunch: your illustration depicting the horror of minute maid park was deeply powerful. have you considered a second career depicting volcanoes in ms paint? it’s a quickly growing field, i hear.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: If that were a job I’d start it tomorrow

9:48	TF Fredrik: What do you think are the most useful pitch f/x metrics to look at? You give me velos, horizontal/vertical movement, & pitch usages and I feel pretty good about having an idea of a pitcher’s arsenal.

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: That definitely gives you just about everything. Beyond that, though, you want to know where the pitches usually go. And there’s value in seeing how the pitches relate to one another — like, I think it’s more important to look at a changeup versus the fastball, as opposed to looking at the changeup in isolation

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I might be wrong on that, though. Hard to demonstrate

9:49	Guest: How short will Montero’s leash be considering their depth options, will be Montero ever put it together as a platoon guy?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Jesus Montero? I think the job is Lee’s. Montero is out of options, so I figure he’ll float elsewhere. Doubt he’s ever worth more than 1 WAR, and my assumption is he’s something like replacement level

9:51	Richard: Hi: Your thoughts concerning the health of Wacha & C. Martinez after last September. Thanks

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: With Wacha, I think the problem was mechanics. Maybe brought on by fatigue, but I feel pretty good about him for 2016. Martinez I feel mostly good about. Shoulders are just mysterious enough, though, that I’ll want some early encouraging velocity readings

9:53	jtt: Why do teams keep giving mike morse money? He has been good literally one time. At least ruben sierra played in an era before sabremetrics were widespread

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He’s extremely strong, and when he wants to be he’s a really good teammate. He’s had some of his numbers hurt due to injury and he’s still a pretty good hitter at 100%. Problem is, everything else

9:54	William: Jays over/under 93 wins (2015 total)? Some have made the case that their starting is actually a touch better than last year, even minus Price…

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I expect them under 93 but they’d be one of the least surprising teams if they eclipsed 93. 93 is just a really high bar

9:55	Guest: Any chance Harper gets in the 40/40 club, trouts too fat and slow now

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Harper has 37 steals in four years

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: (That’s a no)

9:58	Mikey: Glasnow seems like he might have the best milk on the farm, even over Giolito. Do you agree? Do you see Glasnow becoming one of the top pitchers in baseball?