Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/10/17

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05
Bork: Hello, friend! Apologies for missing last week, Bork Jr can be distracting.

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: I always forgive my friends

9:05
Dave: Do you enjoy going to minor league games? What is your favorite stadium?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t gone to that many minor-league games, truth be told, because I’ve been close enough to a big-league stadium. I do like going to Hillsboro Hops games, since they’re closest to me, but minor-league games have gotten increasingly expensive

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Which, hey, I get it. But a big part of the fun used to be how affordable it was to watch non-big-leaguers. As that goes away you start to question what you’re doing

9:06
JT: jeff, I just bombed an interview. However it’s almost lunch time, what is your favorite “shame meal?”

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: I WOULDN’T KNOW

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

9:06
BTR: would you rather have Dahl or Pederson for the next 4-5 years?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Pederson

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: He’s already proven himself to be an above-average regular

9:07
E: What are the odds Matt Carpenter makes the Hall of Fame?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Like 2%. It’s almost impossible to get there when you don’t break out until you’re 27

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Carpenter is entering his age-31 season, and he’s been worth 21 WAR

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Same reason Jose Bautista won’t make the Hall of Fame

9:09
The Average Sports Fan: People seem very concerned about Conforto not getting enough PT or hurting his development. Where do you stand?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I think people exaggerate the importance of playing every day. You can learn and develop as a semi-regular or spot starter. However, clearly, the Mets kind of got themselves into a mess when they kept Bruce. This is far from ideal

9:11
CamdenWarehouse: I’m starting to think that March is a worse baseball month than August. We get teased with baseball that isn’t really baseball and have to wait a month.

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Plus pretty much any and all significant news is bad

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: A guy is on a hot streak? Doesn’t matter. A guy gets hurt? Boy does that ever matter

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Embrace the WBC. It’s good. At least relatively speaking, it’s good.

9:13
John Jaso: What type of contract will Carlos Santana land next year? Guesses on where he lands? Stays with Cleveland?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a guess on destination yet since that’s still a year away, but I’d look for something kind of in between the Kendrys Morales contract and the Edwin Encarnacion contract. The market clearly isn’t in love with the unathletic sluggers at the moment, but Santana will sign medium-term

9:14
Fake Bork: Welcome to “Trampolines: The Silent KIllers” with Jeff Sullivan!

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing silent about them

9:15
JRuby: Jeff, yesterday the MLB announced that the Pirates and Cardinals will play their August 20 game in a Single-A ballpark in Williamsport, PA, during the Little League World Series, with attendance limited to LLWS players and families. Do you like this idea?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I nothing this idea

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Totally open to being convinced in either direction. Hard for me to imagine caring about one game on a crowded schedule.

9:16
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: How confident are you that Trea Turner can sustain the success he last last year? Will his switch to SS have any affect on his hitting?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: I think that future Turner — and it will be a good Turner — won’t look too similar to what he just did. He’s going to draw a lot more walks, and there’s no way in hell he stays close to a .388 BABIP. His discipline will find an equilibrium, and although he’s not a 147 wRC+ type, he’s going to be a good all-around player, starting, or resuming, in a month

9:18
Bebop: article idea…the crazy similar batting lines of Bryrizzo in 2016? have you seen anything like that before? Bryant was actually hit 2 MORE times than Rizzo despite Rizzos rep of plate crowding, nearly identical amount of walks, etc. idk you’re the writer, just thought it could merit an interesting article

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Along similar lines, I fell in love with how Chris Davis and Khris Davis were basically identical hitters there for a while

9:19
Tyson in Oklahoma: Do you ever hear the name Albert Pujols and chuckle because you remember that his last name is Poo-holes?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: It’s compelling evidence of how we get used to everything. You know how we got used to Mike Trout and now we take him for granted? Well, we got used to the fact that one of the best players in baseball for a while had a last name of Pujols

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: There’s no way we’re collectively mature enough to do that because we wanted to

9:20
saditude: Good friday morning! Is this the right room for the multivariate analysis lecture?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Yes it is

9:20
Gentry: How’s Jose Berrios’ command? Coming into last year it had been written that he was at least average in command, but now it is said to be his main drawback?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: One is pretty much not allowed to be positive after what happened to Berrios as a rookie

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t mean he can’t excel, but based on the most recent evidence, he’s got a lot of kinks to work out

9:21
Bebop: what is the likelihood that Trevor Bauer has a better 2017 than Salazar and Corrasco?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Both? Maybe 10%

9:22
Bork: Why did you have to provide optimism on Justin Smoak. I need Rowdy Tellez in my MLB life.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Good news: people have been optimistic about Justin Smoak before. Fun lot of good it did them

9:24
Gest: Where do you stand on Ryan Schimpf? Is a rougie odor comp out of the question? Are his 2016 slugging rates 90% sustainable?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Odor is a very different sort of player. The full truth is that I don’t know what to make of Schimpf because I’ve never really seen a profile like his before. He’s *so* extreme that I can’t speak to the sustainability. I do find him fascinating, and I’m open to the idea that he’s mostly legit. It’s like part Brian Dozier and part Chris Carter. Bizarre

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: He is a major leaguer in the right era for his profile. 20 years ago I’m not sure he ever gets a shot

9:26
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Talk to me about Brian Dozier. Do you think he can come close to replicating last years power?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Depends what you mean by “close.” He hit for power in 2015, too. 30 home runs is easily within his reach

9:26
Ryan: Is it still a secret where August went?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: It is!

9:27
Lunch angle: Do you expect Jake Lamb’s 2017 to look more like his 2016 first half or second half?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: That’s easy. In between! He’s not 151 wRC+ good, or 68 wRC+ bad. His early power, to me, was overachieving, but I can buy him around 115 – 120

9:28
Fan: Who do you have winning the WBC?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: DR? I’m definitely not in the prediction business

9:29
Jaack: You are given the ability to re-assign Billy Hamilton’s offensive speed and baserunning to any other player. It will not affect their defense in any way.

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Billy Butler, just to see it

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: What a world that would be

9:32
Snow Day: Pitches and pitch locations are all well and good, but what of release angles? Will pitching on a downward plane still be a thing? Is drop and drive back? Does height even matter? Consider Tanaka v. Donaldson.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say we’re looking at two pitches at the knees, roughly 1.5 feet off the ground

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: One pitcher releases the ball 5.5 feet off the ground, and another pitcher releases the ball 6.5 feet off the ground. Both releases come 55 feet from the front of the plate

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: The difference in angles is one degree. Now, I don’t know what that means, but it doesn’t seem large at all. It would be more or less imperceptible

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: So I don’t think it matters much. Height is good for extension, and anecdotally for speed. But look at Darren O’Day — his release angle is low, but his fastball is still dominant

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: When people talk about flat fastballs or whatever, they’re really talking about pitch movement

9:36
The Ghost of Sam Miller: Since pitching high in the zone is most challenging for swings with an uppercut, and hitters get the most value for swings that are fly balls, what value would you place in the hypothesis that similar to K’s being good for both hitters and pitchers, pitching high will nevertheless not cause players to level out there swings?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: It would require a broader revolution. As is, hitters would be content to wait pitchers out, because attempted high fastballs can miss, and just about every non-fastball is supposed to be low

9:37
KJ: How much do extreme splits really matter for a LHH? Say a guy has a career 140 wRC+ vs RHP and a 70 vs LHP. He averages around 3.5 WAR per year. Is this player somehow worth less than the average 3.5 WAR player? Or should we be happy that he gives us monster value against righties and not worry about the fact that he’s basically unplayable for 1/3rd of the season?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I think you worry about late-inning exploitability — that player might not be so useful if you have to remove him in high-leverage situations because the other manager brings in a lefty

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Like, maybe it’s not a coincidence that Josh Reddick has been super un-clutch

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: But this is all unproven

9:38
Nelson: Where does Tim Tebow play this year? AA? AAA? In my dreams?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: A-ball somewhere

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: If he wants to have a career he needs to be fast-tracked, but they won’t put him in Double-A until or unless he shows he’s ready, I assume

9:40
Moltar: What is the best way to share at-bats between Conforto, Bruce and Duda? Am I wrong to think Duda should be the one to sit with Bruce at 1B?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: That’s up to Duda’s health. But mostly there is no good way

9:40
Schmegs: How much more do launch angles have to rise before we see a change in infielder alignment?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Infielders are already changing pretty often based on hitter identity

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: To think, this is what analysis had to rely on 10 years ago, in the days before PITCHf/x

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: That’s crazy!

9:42
Matt: Why did nobody claim Byung Ho Park? Is there really any difference between him and Eric Thames other that the sequencing of their career path?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Well, the sequencing is relevant, because Thames had a good 2016 and Park did not

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: But I do feel like Park’s skills have been undersold

9:44
Jacob: What’s with the low projections for Addison Reed this season? Last season had him at a 1.97 FIP, the same as his ERA. However, all 3 of Steamer, Depth Charts and ZiPS have him at over 3 ERA.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Reed did everything the same as he did in 2014, when his FIP was 4.03

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not saying he’s actually mediocre, because last season was great, but Reed has looked like that guy before, and he still allowed homers

9:45
David: I watch a couple of innings that Shea Spitzbarth has thrown this spring. Is this a name we should pay attention to?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: This is the first I’ve ever heard of him

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Surprising, given that surname

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Last year in A-ball: 28.1 innings, 7 walks, 43 strikeouts

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: This is the full extent of my knowledge

9:47
Toshi: Jeff, a long time reader here (since Lenore for Third). My question: do you think Mariners are doomed in a couple of years, as many think? Or do you think DiPoto will have enough money, farm and trading energy to avoid disaster? Thanks!

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I think people exaggerate the certainty with which we can predict the more distant future. We can see certain elements — the Mariners’ system isn’t great, and they have some big contracts already on the books. Felix definitely looks like a declining asset. Lots of players due for FA in the next couple years. The Mariners aren’t in a good situation, but we don’t know for sure there’s a cliff, just like we don’t know for the Tigers, either

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: What if the Tigers get Norris, Fulmer, and Boyd all going? Hey, look, a good young rotation!

9:49
Baseball GM: How many hours a weeks do my operations analysts work?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Too

9:50
TP: What do you think Daniel Norris is capable of this season?

9:51
Jake Odorizzi: Will I ever get right-handed hitters out? And if I did, what would u think of me?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Get a better slider

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Your slider is bad

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Or cutter, or whatever it is

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: You’re like the one right-handed pitcher in baseball whose slider doesn’t work

9:53
mtsw: Everyone’s excited about Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman and other “good” pitchers, but what about Ubaldo Jimenez? Can he build on a great stretch run (playoff notwithstanding) and be an above-replacement level 4th-5th starter for the O’s?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: I think people are tired of being teased

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Jimenez actually had two good months last season — April and September. He followed April with a terrible May

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: In 2015, he had a first-half 2.81 ERA, and a second-half 5.63 ERA

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: No one expects consistency out of Jimenez anymore. He’s serviceable as a No. 5/6, but that’s about it

9:55
Erik: Is it good for the tournament that “Israel” and “Italy” are making waves? Or does it make the WBC lose some credibility, since both teams are really just Americans?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: There are natives on each team, and upsets are upsets. They’ll be good stories back home, which will, in turn, inspire more young people to give baseball a shot

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: The Italian baseball culture in particular is surprisingly well developed

9:56
bosoxforlife: Is Jacob deGrom the most underrated pitcher in baseball?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: No

9:56
Katie: isn’t Dahl’s upside higher than Joc’s, though?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not convinced we ever really know all that much about upside. And Joc is good right now

9:57
saditude: How nutty did Carlos Martinez look?! Easy 101. Next inning, 94 mph sinker. Someone call him from the Cardinals and tell him to dial it down a bit I guess?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: And he was throwing changeups in the low 90s. Super amped. Maybe dangerous! But that was top-tier stuff. That was Carlos Martinez as an ace

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Something I’ll point out since I just noticed: Martinez lowered his arm slot. Was getting more run on his pitches than he used to. Worth monitoring

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Continuation of a trend from last season http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=593372&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=z0&s_type=16&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=03/10/2017

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a bad link!

10:00
mtsw: I get that Brett Lawrie is a little intense but is there more to the “bad makeup” talk than that? Like is he just sort of obnoxious to be around or is there something more serious going on?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know Brett Lawrie personally, but based on the way people talk about him, he’s just generally unlikable.

10:00
The Ghost of Sam Miller: How do you feel about people calling you Sully?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: No one’s done it since high school

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: And that teacher was Irish so it hardly counted. I think he called everyone Sully

10:01
Javi: What young player do you like better in the 2nd round, correa or turner?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: This is a fantasy question so I don’t know how to answer it but I like Correa better in real life

10:02
Tanner: Would Curt Schilling be a hall of famer if he was as good a person as Roberto Clemente?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: His initial voting results weren’t spectacular and he wasn’t yet this level of asshole. His results would be a lot better but maybe not 75% yet. The bar for pitchers is simply too high these days

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Even ones with souls

10:02
George: Happy Friday Jeff! I bet if Kershaw did somehow harness the power of throwing even an average knuckleball he could become even better then he already is. It doesn’t have to be the best but it could take the place of his non existent changeup.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Yep. Give him five or ten knuckleballs a game and it’s just unfair

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Even if his knuckleball delivery tipped the pitch, it’s still just one more thing you have to look out for

10:03
Kevin: Are the pitch-types emphasized by the Mets ruining their pitchers?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not

10:04
fgjghhj: Carson Fulmer seems like kind of a forgotten man in Chicago with all of the additions, but he’s had control this spring and apparently the stuff looks good. Any chance he takes a rotation spot?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he takes a spot right out of camp, but there’s so much potential volatility and uncertainty in there that it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him make double-digit starts in the majors

10:05
MrBobDobalina: Can you give me some hope that Raul Mondesi could become at least a serviceable hitter?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Last year he was 20 years old. It was amazing he was in the majors at all. He is a very much unfinished product

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: (Was that good enough?)

10:06
Joe: How dare you talk ish about Jose Bautista!!?? He will be 2-3 WAR player for 5 more years.

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: And that still won’t be good enough to get him into the Hall of Fame

10:06
jake: Do you expect anything from Andrew Cashner this year? IT looked like a waste of 10M at the time, and now he’s hurt.

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Even when he’s healthy he’s bad

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Okay, that’s an overstatement. But he’s long been underwhelming. I didn’t even get why the Marlins wanted him last summer

10:09
Bip: Ross Stripling threw 44% fastballs last year, with below average velo and worth -5.3 runs. All his secondaries had positive value, enough to make his pitches positive overall. Do you think even 44% fastball rate is too high for him?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I like the idea of his fastball. I like the way it moves. Obviously, it wasn’t as good as anyone would’ve liked last year, but I’d try again with similar rates and see what happens

10:10
b.smith: It’s Sunday, April 2nd. How many hours of baseball does Jeff Sullivan watch?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I joined a local mountaineering club that has an outing scheduled for that weekend, so, not very much

10:11
Cistulli’s Moustache: When can we expect moustaches to out number beards in MLB?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: 1986

10:11
Ben: I did not believe that Friday was a thing that could be improved upon, but Sullivan chats have convinced me that I was mistaken.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: I feel the same way!

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Chatting on Fridays is so much better than writing on Fridays

10:11
Javi : Thoughts on Cargo staying in Colorado? I know they’ve been trying to move him for a while

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure they’ve been trying seriously — not based on rumors of their ask.

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: They very clearly think more of him than anyone else

10:12
Daniel Carroll: What sample size do you like to have before you start evaluating relievers?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t take much to get my attention. It takes more before I feel more certainty, of course, but a guy like Grant Dayton had me right away

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Ditto Edwin Diaz. Or pre-injury Tony Zych

10:13
CaptainPeanutbutter: Why are certain people such homers? I understand liking your team and what not, but at some point it gets really hard to argue against stats. Is this just one of those human factors that doesn’t follow logic?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: A large number of people enjoy sports specifically because they feel like they don’t have to think too hard about them

10:14
Joel: If Felix goes 12-10 and strikes out 170 people as ZiPS projects , does Seattle make the playoffs?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: If the Mariners are the kind of team that gives Felix a 12-10 record with a mid-3s ERA, then I don’t think that’s a playoff club

10:15
The Ghost of Sam Miller: When you get an idea you’re excited to write about how much to you fluctuate between blissful excitement and the feeling this isn’t really a good idea?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: The benefit of having to write as much as I do is that it doesn’t give me much time to second-guess myself

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: It’s when I’m on my like last piece of the week that I think myself in circles

10:17
Z: I know it was only 53 pitches (in 4 innings) in the WBC, but damn, Carlos Martinez looked really good. He was dialed up to 98 on his fastball with a hard slider. But, the most encouraging stat was that he didn’t issue a BB. Do you think he can reduce his BB/9 rate and become a frontline starter?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: That’s what’s left, right? And just generally, his strike rate and contact rate should support a lesser number of walks. I think if Martinez consistently throws changeups like the ones he was throwing last night, that’s it. He’s a No. 1.

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Needs to get more out-of-zone swings to reach that level

10:19
Daniel Carroll: I have to share an office tonight with three other people, two of them hate the WBC. What should I say to them?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Why hate?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Why feel hate?

10:20
Adam: Does Tim Beckham finally break out this year?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:21
Terrible Ted: Are you excited about the prospect of baseball on Mars? 62% of Earth’s gravity plus Olympus Mons in the background.

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: We need fewer Coors Field environments, not more

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Classic NASA move. Get people on Mars just so they can play unwatchable baseball

10:22
mtsw: Should MLB try to discourage migration of youth talent in America into year-round travel leagues that most kids can’t afford to participate in? Seems like its not ideal for developing talent or for growing the sports’ popularity

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like the better move would be trying to make participation more affordable

10:23
Z: Saying nothing about what kind of person he is, but do you expect a bounce back season from Jose Reyes? He played pretty well in limited time last season.

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s very good anymore

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I think the .443 SLG was a mirage

10:24
Guest: Is there any way we could see who suffers from fouling the ball off in 0-0 counts for example? I know we’ve looked at players who seem to have the skill to foul the ball off in X-2 counts, but has anyone looked into batters who might have inflated K-rates because they foul the ball off and end up in unfavorable counts? Kinda poor sequencing in a way.

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Sounds like something you could investigate using Baseball Savant!

10:24
Vito: among my three breakout pitchers for 2017 (manaea, paxton, gray) who are you digging the most?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Paxton

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: I am all in on James Paxton 2017

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: You could argue he already broke out

10:25
bosoxforlife: Is Ellsbury’s contract is probably the worst in the game now. Who are close behind andand where do you put Chris Davis on that list?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Albert Pujols is still under contract

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury is under contract for four years and about $90 million. Pujols is under contract for five years and about $140 million. Ellsbury projects this year for 1.6 WAR. Pujols projects for 1.1

10:28
Jamie Griffith: Any concerns for Arrieta in 2017 given his struggles in the second half of 16′ with giving up HR’s and a poor slider?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, some real concerns. In my head I no longer think of Jake Arrieta as elite

10:28
Evil Goatee Jeff: What’s your favorite MLB nickname?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Country Breakfast

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: although he might not be in MLB anymore

10:29
Jacob: Top prospect most likely to flop?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Any pitcher

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Giolito still count?

10:31
The Tone: I feel like the Nationals’ lack of pitching depth is not being mentioned nearly enough in the general blogosphere. Everyone, fairly, focuses on the question marks surrounding the Mets’ pitching health (though they definitely have better depth than the Nats), but it’s not like the Nats don’t have their own health questions with Strasburg, Ross, and (to a degree) Scherzer and his injured knuckle. The Nats seem screwed to me if they have even moderate injury issues in the rotation this year, do you agree?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I think AJ Cole works okay as a sixth starter and I can see the modest upside in Austin Voth. The Nationals clearly don’t have the deepest rotation, and there are major questions at least about Ross. But their situation isn’t desperate.

10:33
Hannah Hochevar: I have a lot of trouble remembering which is McHugh and which McCullers. Can I get a mnemonic from you? The best I can think of is if Carson likes McCullers better for some reason, then that would be a literary deal…

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: McCullers is the one whose curveball is almost as fast as McHugh’s cutter

10:34
Heathcliff Slocumb: What are we to make of Sonny Gray’s latest injury? Damaged goods at this point?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a different injury but it’s not good. Strained lats have ruined full seasons

10:35
mtsw: Will the Orioles regret not trading Zach Britton this offseason? Even if they’re trying to maximize their 2-year window, there are certainly plenty of other holes in the roster he could’ve helped fill and their bullpen is very deep.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: They could trade him in July for basically just as much if they really wanted to

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: So in that sense they didn’t miss much of an opportunity

10:35
Terrible Ted: What do you expect from Felix this season? Sitting 91-92 in his last start.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: My cautious optimism points me toward a season similar to his 2015

10:35
Bur: Do you think the astros are shooting themselves in the foot for signing Correa for the minimum? Short sighted or non-issue?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: The Angels did this with Trout. Didn’t matter.

10:36
Scraunch Haunch: Who’s gonna sign Byung Ho Park?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: He’s still with the Twins

10:38
Z: Is this the season that Giancarlo Stanton finally breaks the 40HR plateau?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I just can’t trust him to play often enough

10:39
Gest: Have you heard anything on Jameson Taillon’s new look changeup?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t sought it out yet or anything, I just know he’s trying to have it mirror his two-seamer instead of his four-seamer. I’m a bigger fan of the two-seam changeup grip, and I think it should allow Taillon to more consistently keep the pitch down

10:40
bosoxforlife: Familia was touching 100 last night. Any thought on what his suspension might look like?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Chapman is the baseline

10:42
John: What’s your take on Alex Bregman’s offensive potential in light of Tony Blengino’s 2016 Hitter Contact Quality Report?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Think there are still a lot of the elements of a good player in there, but after the 2016 numbers it would be easy to overrate his actual power. He’s not that much of a power hitter, and even his peak exit velocities in the majors were mediocre

10:43
Nat: In two recent articles, you referred to “sinkers and two seamers” as if they’re different kinds of pitches. Aren’t they two names for the same thing? Or am I wrong? I could be wrong. In the same vein, if you’re looking for article ideas, I would love to see you and and/or Eno break down the basic pitch types using all the new research that’s come out on spin and release point. I’ve always wanted a numbers-oriented reference for each pitch – how it moves, what the grip is, what count it’s used in, etc.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Sinkers and two-seamers are basically the same, but the general PITCHf/x pitch classifications split them apart for some reason

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: If you look at Brooks Baseball, pitchers just have either four-seamers or two-seamers

10:44
CamdenWarehouse: Did you fight Eno and lose over who got to write about Broxton and Santana?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have anything more to say until after the season starts. It was Eno’s turn

10:45
baseman: Let’s say Domingo Santana breaks out, but Brinson is good and the Brewers want to keep Braun. Wouldn’t Santana get a bigger package in trade than Braun anyway? Young, team controlled versus old, $20m/yr

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Of course, the Brewers want young and team-controlled

10:46
Cody: Do you think James Paxton’s diminished velocity this spring is an issue?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: What diminished velocity? He was throwing 95 on March 4

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Best velocity he’s ever had in a spring-training game, and we’re still almost a month from the start of the year

10:47
Tim: Is Cistulli writing your headlines now? Your one today is a real doozy.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: When I get to my last article of the week I’m basically out of brain function

10:49
Will: Is Freddie Freeman the best player (non-pitcher) in the NL East?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Oy. I guess…it would be safe to say yes, but he’ll be pushed by Yelich, Harper, Cespedes, and Rendon

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: So it’s not at all clear

10:50
5 Run Homer: So I was reading the BP Annual and the top PECOTA comps for Gary Sanchez are Ryan Lavarnway, Devin Mesoraco and Travis d’Arnaud. That’s… not good, right?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: The comps are not good, no, but the comps are also just for fun. Sanchez is his own player

10:50
Mike: I was listening to an old conversation of yours and Carson’s about eating out maybe being a bad choice. For me, an underrated perk is not having to be in your own house.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: This is the real benefit. Forget the quality of the food. Going out is just a break from sitting in your own miserable living room for a couple of hours

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling a few minutes earlier than usual

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/10/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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NickinATL
Member
NickinATL

So according to this extreme liberal blogger, conservatives who voice truths, albeit provocative, do not have souls – gotta love the tolerance of the left. Hopefully this blogger will stop displaying his admitted ignorant political views.