The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

Week: 1 / 2.

Over the last couple years, the author has published a periodic statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.

What follows represents such a report for the 2017 college campaign, following roughly three weeks of play.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The three conferences I’ve chosen here represent those most typically responsible for producing good major-league players. Later editions of this same report will contain more conferences.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current through Wednesday’s games.

ACC
Top Batter
Sam Fragale, 1B, Virginia Tech (RS-Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Sam Fragale, 1B, Virginia Tech (RS-Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech (So)

Top Pitcher
Tyler Holton, LHP, Florida State (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, North Carolina (Jr)

Top Starter
Tyler Holton, LHP, Florida State (So)

Leaderboards

Notes
Projecting college catchers is a difficult proposition. Consider: if a college shortstop lacks the physical tools to play that same position as a professional, he can simply move over to second or third base. He’s still likely to provide positive defensive value in that case. The penalty for lacking the requisite tools for catcher, on the other hand, is much greater. Because catcher types generally lack mobility, they don’t slide gently to the next stop on the defensive spectrum; they tumble painfully to the bottom of it.

All of which is to say, the author has experienced some trepidation in designating catcher Joey Bart, a sophomore at Georgia Tech, as the “top defensive-type batter” in the ACC. Nevertheless, indications about his physical tools are promising: as a prep prospect, Bart placed in the 95th percentile or better among his peers according both to catcher arm speed and pop time during his appearances at Perfect Game showcases.

***Pac-12
Top Batter
Lars Nootbaar, CF/1B, USC (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Jared Oliva, CF, Arizona (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Lars Nootbaar, CF/1B, USC (So)

Top Pitcher
Kris Bubic, LHP, Stanford (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA (Jr)

Top Starter
Kris Bubic, LHP, Stanford (So)

Leaderboards

Notes
The numbers here don’t include games from yesterday, so Stanford left-hander Kris Bubic’s start against Rice last night isn’t included. Bubic conceded five runs over 6.0 innings versus the Owls, but he also recorded a 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while facing 26 batters. In terms of predictive value, the latter figure is more important than the former.

In any case, Bubic has been a fixture at or near the top of the Pac-12 pitching leaderboard thus far. As for his arm speed, it’s not overwhelming — the fastball sits in the high 80s, according to D1 Baseball’s Kendall Rogers — but the entire repertoire seems to work well in concert.

***SEC
Top Batter
Grant Koch, C, Arkansas (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Evan White, 1B, Kentucky (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Grant Koch, C, Arkansas (So)

Top Pitcher
Will Ethridge, RHP, Mississippi (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Brigham Hill, RHP, Texas A&M (Jr)

Top Starter
Will Ethridge, RHP, Mississippi (Fr)

Leaderboards

Notes
Ole Miss, currently ranked 16th by D1 Baseball, features two of the most impressive underclass pitchers in the SEC. Sophomore right-hander Dallas Woolfolk throws 94-96 mph, typically in multi-inning appearances out of the bullpen. Freshman right-hander Will Ethridge, meanwhile, has recorded the SEC’s top numbers while working in a swing role.

The starts have been particularly impressive. In 12.2 innings of work in that capacity, Ethridge has recorded a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 20:2 against 45 batters. He appears to possess slightly less fastball velocity than Woolfolk, sitting in the low 90s, but complements it with a breaking ball that he seems adept at locating on the fringes of the strike zone, as suggested by the video below from his most recent start.