Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/18/16

March 18, 2016

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: This one isn’t going to go as long as usual because of other work stuff. Apologies in advance

9:05	Brian: Kyle Seager looks like he has to practice high-fives

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I have to imagine he wakes up every single day flabbergasted that he somehow managed to survive the Mariners’ player-development system

9:05	florida man: Jeff, which do you think is the most accurate projection system out there? Zips? Steamer? other?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Honestly I think they’re all basically the same. They use much of the same information to generate much of the same result, and while of course they’re not identical, all the differences are at the margins. If System A is 1% more accurate than System B, that’s cool, but it’s not enough to say that System A is awesome and System B is useless

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I’m happy with our Steamer/ZiPS blend. I don’t think we’re going to have anything better any time soon. In all the years of trying to forecast baseball players, it’s not like we’ve gotten all that much better at it

9:08	Gest : How much does the Alvarez signing effect trumbos playing time? I noticed his depth chart numbers took a big hit.

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Shouldn’t be a huge effect. Definitely a little bit of a reduction, just because the DH slot isn’t a black hole anymore, but Trumbo will still be a regular

9:09	dmo: Has Jesus Montero lost the platoon job yet considering Lee’s and Romero’s performances? And does Montero have any trade value if the Mariners want to get something out of him rather than putting him through waivers? Also, still a chance M’s bullpen is better than last year?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: Montero does not have any trade value. And the bullpen should be better than last year, when it was one of the five or so worst in the majors. I don’t think it’s going to be a strength, especially if Cishek doesn’t rebound all the way, but there’s enough depth in there when Scribner is healthy again

9:10	carl: What do you make of Juan Nicasio? It’s ST and he’s pitched 10 innings… but boy is it hard to ignore what he’s done…

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I like him as a multi-inning reliever. I don’t think he’d be a great starting option, but we know he can dominate righties, without any improvement

9:12	daneyko: the small sample of Jon Gray in 2015 was not very good. Do you expect a decent season ? 160 IP, 155 K, 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP ?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: To Gray’s credit, even though his ERA was bad, he did have an 87 FIP- and a 99 xFIP-. He’s a big-league starter, and I don’t think your numbers are unrealistic. Maybe 4.10 is too difficult in Colorado, but I like him enough and he can handle lefties

9:13	cargo: the stats of (Ben Paulsen and Mark Reynolds) could be the same with Lucas Duda ?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: No part of me is counting on that

9:15	JDogg: Kevin Pillar … what are the chances he gets to lead off? And if he does, how do you think he finishes the year?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like it’s a virtual lock he at least opens as the leadoff guy. He might not stay there depending on whether Saunders stays healthy and hits, but Pillar will get the first crack. He’s not a great hitter, so I expect he finishes the year as not a great hitter

9:16	Ronnie: “Born to Love Volcanos” by the Dead Milkmen or “Eruption” by Van Halen?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano_Choir

9:17	Daniel Carroll: Given that he’s a year older, should M’s fans be worried at all about Nelson Cruz not yet hitting a HR in spring?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: He didn’t homer in spring training 2014, either. Then he slugged .525

9:20	Bob: Arenado and LeMahieu for Giolito, Ross and Turner. Who says no?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Nationals. Way too much value to give up

9:23	JDogg: who says no .. Tigers trade Castellanos and Moya for Longoria

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I spent maybe too long thinking about this

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: And I didn’t even get anywhere great, but my sense is the Rays would still say no. As much as Longoria is a player in decline, there’s too much risk in the return, and Longoria’s future salaries are not outlandish

9:24	Ronnie: Do you think Jose Altuve can dunk?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: No, but I bet he can get closer to me, and I’m 6’5

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: than me. than me.

9:25	William: With the potential expansion issue coming up, what do you think the likelihood of Montreal getting back a team is?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’ll happen eventually

9:25	Guest: whats your prediction for how many wins the mariners get this year?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: 84

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Wanted to type 83 but I guess I’m an optimist

9:25	Ray Nicholas: Boxberger down? Who next? Colome? Farquhar? Some crazy move?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s a crazy move happening at this point in the spring

9:27	Guest: Is there something BP is seeing that everyone else isn’t with the Rays projection?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: As I eyeball things, they seem just a little bit higher on almost every position player. They really like Hank Conger. I would easily bet the under on the Rays’ projection, but at the very least, it is a reasonable reminder that the Rays should be competitive again and that the AL East is volatile

9:29	Brian: Is Franklin Gutierriez the easiest player in baseball to root for?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, he’s easy to root for, but the easiest? I don’t know. Lots of players have overcome adversity. Players like Rizzo and Lester have beaten cancer for pete’s sake

9:30	Erik: Does this Phillies wealth combined with their small payroll give them a legitimate shot at the wild card in 2017? Or is that too soon?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not something to plan on, because they need a LOT of help, and the upcoming FA market isn’t very strong. So it might not be easy to distribute all the resources. But let’s say Franco cements himself, and let’s say Crawford does the same. You’ve got Nola, and you’ve got Herrera, and…well you’d have Crawford and Franco. You can build around a Crawford and Franco

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: If I had to try to project out, I’d say the Phillies could win 75-78 games in a year, and THEN they could be competitive in 2018

9:33	Mike: Jeff – I have trying to think of a good way to introduce ice to the game of baseball. How about ice foul ground and 2 skaters to chase the balls down? Do you have any ideas?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: If a pitcher takes longer than 15 seconds to deliver his next pitch, the umpire gets to go out and drop ice down the back of his shirt

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Go to hell, slow pitchers

9:34	pirates hurdles: With the StatCast data presented at SABR, what is the future of FIP, seems like pitcher control of batted ball is much larger than thought by DIPS?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: At first, there was the thought pitchers were in total control. Then came the revolutionary thought pitchers had basically zero control. Since then we’ve moved toward the middle. Even now, the distribution between the best and the worst isn’t enormous, so FIP will continue to have value for a while. I’d say we might sooner re-think xFIP

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It’s pretty clear some pitchers are better than others at limiting contact quality but I think that’s more stuff at the margins than something fundamentally huge

9:36	Guest: We’re the Mariners unlucky or a poor dev system?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Probably both. The communication and consistency sucked. That much, we know

9:37	Jim: Who’s competitive first, Phillies or braves?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say Braves might reach .500 first, but Phillies will look like a champion contender first

9:38	Guest: do the brewers, braves, or phillies finish with the worst record in baseball?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Phillies

9:41	Buff: Nice piece on Nicasio. Any reason to worry about Tony Watson? Lots of innings last 3 years, slight drop in velo and k/9 last year. Will he be able to take over as Bucs’ closer when Melancon leaves?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Alert level…yellow? Don’t like seeing that second-half velocity decline from him, and he hasn’t yet really put it together in spring training. I still think he’ll be all right, but there’s a hint of uncertainty there. Watson isn’t the only future closing option in case something happens

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, you don’t have to squint very much to see Caminero with high-leverage potential

9:43	pirates hurdles: Seems like many here like to average Steamer and ZiPS. Has there been any study to show that this is a good or bad idea?

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: That’s how we run our projections as displayed — it starts as just Steamer, but then when we get full ZiPS information, we blend the two 50/50. Research in the past has indicated that blended systems perform a little better than individual systems. I like it because at least in my head, Steamer is more conservative and ZiPS is more aggressive

9:45	JJB: Hey Jeff, could you clarify what skills age the best? Most prominently, we’ve seen power deteriorate for many (Howard, Hamilton, Pujols etc.), but what skills age better?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: You’re looking for more all-around athleticism. Those bodies hold up longer, so then they’re able to remain successful longer. Big beefy slugger types don’t need to slip much to no longer be useful

9:47	lunch: the rotographs guys are into full on 10 bold predictions time. you feel like making some bold predictions for the season? they don’t all have to be based around joey votto popups. though they can be, i guess.

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles bullpen ends up better than the Yankees bullpen

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The Giants win the NL West?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The A’s make the playoffs?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Am I supposed to be held accountable for these?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Christian Yelich hits 20 homers and Votto hits one pop-up, which comes in the middle of August

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Votto will privately dispute whether the pop-up should qualify as such

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s not very bold

9:49	Guest: If the mariners fail this yr when would you tear down for a full rebuild?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of depends how they fail. Which players fail? If, like, Felix, Cano, and Cruz all struggle, it’s not like you can do much with those contracts

9:51	Outta my way, Gyorkass: I’ve asked some of the other chatters this, but of the upper level contenders in the NL, which team stands the highest chance of utter collapse? How about in the AL?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: So much has to do with injuries, but I could see the Nationals having problems given their limited amount of depth behind the stars

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like Strasburg and Harper have been the models of durability

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: In the AL, I don’t even know who the upper-level contenders are. But while I’m sure I’ll get shit for this, I’d be in no way surprised if the Royals win 76 games, and then at the end we’re all like “well, okay, yeah”

9:54	Outta my way, Gyorkass: Who do you like better as a long term shortstop, Crawford or Arcia?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Crawford

9:54	Erik: What would count as proof that certain teams (such as the Cardinals) have figured out things about player development that others have not? Do we know it’s a skill yet, or could it be luck?

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: We don’t *know* much of anything because it’s so difficult to study. But in theory, you could run a bunch of math to calculate “expected” system output based on drafting positions and scouting reports. And then you’d just have to calculate the difference between actual output and expected output. My guess is the Cardinals would show a strongly positive difference. Matt Carpenter is a great example of why

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: These narratives end up being driven by the fates of small numbers of players, and that’s an issue. But I really do feel good about the Cardinals on this subject

9:56	Jaack: Thoughts on Barry Bonds beating Giancarlo Stanton in a home run contest? On the one hand its probably spring training fluff. On the other hand, I’d like to believe that Barry could step in and hit 20 dingers this year.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I think Stanton came out and disputed that the next day but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t love the original story

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Definitely got me wondering about Bonds yesterday afternoon. I wonder what a realistic aging curve would look like. How would Bonds hit at his current age, given how rested he probably is, health-wise, since the last time he played?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Is it stupid to think Bonds could at least be a functional pinch-hitter? Is it not stupid? I have genuinely no idea

9:58	Jake: Is Brandon Crawford reaching 20 HR again this year out of the realm of possibility?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: No. I like him a lot

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: People talk about Correa as the best shortstop in baseball right now but on a single-season basis, for 2016, Crawford has to be pretty close, to me

9:59	Outta my way, Gyorkass: Who will be the worst defender in the major leagues this year among “everyday” position players?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Matt Kemp or Mark Trumbo