Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/4/16

March 4, 2016

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat! There’s baseball happening!

9:06	Daniel: Your thoughts on the Jays this year? Seems like their PECOTA projections were a little conservative…84 wins seemed low even if it would give them a WC.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: PECOTA puts them at 86-76 and Steamer/ZiPS puts them at 84-78. I like them more around 88-74; I don’t think they’re a particularly deep team, but they’re a strong team, and in a weird way I kind of like their underwhelming starting rotation

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I obviously love Stroman, I’m on board with Happ, and I should hope they don’t give many starting opportunities to Sanchez because I think he’s a dynamite relieer

9:07	daneyko: do you like Ian Kennedy with the Royals. Better ERA in 2016 ?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Better ERA for sure but I don’t think of him as anything more than a No. 3

9:08	j6takish: Jeff, which prospect/player who did not pan out surprised you the most? Who is the biggest “should have been” you can think of and using hindsight, why do you think they didn’t work out?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t my real answer but, Ryan Anderson. He struck out like 12 batters per nine innings and was starting pretty well in Triple-A at 20 years old. He was supposed to be legitimately unhittable, but then the shoulder started barking. He doesn’t count because pitchers get hurt and that’s not an unusual thing, but just based on talent alone, Anderson could’ve been a Hall of Famer instead of a professional chef

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I think your prompt basically eliminates pitchers because pitchers can have strange career paths. Elbows and shoulders and whatnot. So let me rack my brain for a hot second about busted position players

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: aw the hell with it, there’s too much to remember and I can’t see past my own biases

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: So I’ll volunteer Chris Snelling!

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Tore up the minors when he was younger, showing all the skills you could want to see. Excellent control of the strike zone. He was undone in a hurry by injury problems. Just constant. He’s not the best answer to this question, but he’s my answer to this question

9:15

Allen: What would the Braves haul for Miller have gotten Dave Stewart on Jonah Keri’s trade list (if you’ve read it, and Dave Cameron’s from last year if you haven’t)? By that I mean, around which caliber player would be the tipping point for what teams would have accepted for that package if they knew Stewart was offering it?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Let me pull up Jonah’s list real quick

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if the specific team circumstances would’ve worked out, but in a vacuum I could see that package getting three years of Matt Harvey instead of three years of Shelby Miller

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: Now, the Mets might not have been in the mood to sell an ace for another glove-first center fielder and two good prospects. But if Harvey were on, say, the Braves instead, then you probably have a fit. There’s a reason why after the trade happened, we all figured the package was more appropriate for someone like Jose Fernandez

9:18	Bill: Do you think the Mariners have a rotation set and are just not telling the team/media in case someone gets hurt, or if someone blows away the fickle spring training competition they could win the job?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: There are six candidates, but really, Felix is in, and Iwakuma is in, and Walker is in, and Miley is in. So it’s all about Paxton vs. Karns — I’m ignoring whoever else — and though the Mariners might be leaning 60/40 in one direction, I’m sure they just want to see how both pitchers perform. I don’t at all think they’ve made up their minds

9:20	berezin: Do you take Iglesias or McCullers in 2016 ?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: McCullers is better

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if that’s a good answer from a fantasy perspective but it’s a good answer from a reality perspective

9:23

Corey: “From an analytics point of view,” Servais conceded, “they say you should hit your best hitter second. (Pause) I think Robby Cano should hit third. ” – Does this mean that Servais doesn’t think Cano is the best hitter on the team, or he’s acknowledging that he understands that Cano should theoretically hit second but will still be in the three spot?

9:24

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mariners just don’t want to move Cano up and potentially make him change his approach to suit his lineup position. The difference between having him second and third is pretty damn small, over a full season, and maybe they prefer someone with Marte or Aoki’s bat control in front. Cano did bat second 10 times last year; expect the lineup to move around as the season wears on

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: For whatever it’s worth, Cruz is arguably the best hitter on the team, and he’s definitely not batting second

9:26	Zonk: Pedro Alvarez…where do you think he fits? Boras says the reason he was bad at defense last year was the Pirates positioned him away from the bag alot. Is anyone buying that? Or is Pedro a pure DH now?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anyone’s buying that although I also don’t think anyone believes Alvarez is the worst defensive first baseman ever. He’s mostly a DH. There would be an immediate fit in Colorado and maybe the Rockies consider that as they save money from the suspended Jose Reyes. But they also might just not be interested in a veteran — they weren’t interested in Desmond. The White Sox would fit if they just bit the bullet and dumped LaRoche

9:28	Pretty Tony: I think Anthony Gose would have more success if he went by Tony.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I unreasonably love this

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Tony Gose

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Tony Gose Tony Gose Tony Gose

9:29

Moranall: Jeff, thank you for your work on the recent poll and for providing me with the total votes for each team. The reason I asked was because I was trying to compare results that might be between fans and non-fans. For example, as a Diamondbacks fan, I found it odd that we had the 7th most votes in the NL even though we’re definitely not the 7th most popular team. I compared this with the voting results – the poll suggests fans think we’re an 82 win team – yet most fans I know (in person and various online groups) seem to believe we’re more in the 85+ wins group. My theory is that with the Diamondbacks being a popular narrative, that they drew more non-fans to vote. Do you have any thoughts or desires on analyzing this?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: It’s a tricky thing to analyze but I definitely think that you’re on to something. The Diamondbacks are one example of a team that drew more votes than the FG demographics would predict. The Royals are an even more obvious example. They drew a ton of votes because there’s been so much talk about just what these teams are, compared to what the numbers say they are. So people formed opinions a while ago, and this was an opportunity to express them. I doubt anyone was in much of a hurry to come and offer their opinion on the damn Rockies

9:32	TF Fredrik: Top speed guys, Burns, Hamilton, & Gordon, and anyone of their class, what is ideal batted ball profile they can have to still succeed with such weak contact? Seems like running a 50%+ groundball rate, and using a lot of the opposite field would be a start.

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: I think the reality is that, while people think about speed guys succeeding on grounders, they *really* succeed on liners and bloopers beyond the infield. Grounders are still mostly outs, even if you’re Delino DeShields. It’s just that those flares tend to correlate better with grounder rate than fly ball rate

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: You definitely look for an ability to spray the ball and I think when a speed hitter makes it to the majors, that process is selective for spraying because weak pull hitters don’t make it anywhere

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: As a soft rule of thumb, I think you want a GB% at least very close to 50%

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: And you’ll hope for some ability to walk

9:38	Pale Hose: Let’s say you have a reliever with 70 command that specializes in a reverse Dickey effect. How slow would he have to throw to completely throw off a major leaguer’s timing, albeit for one PA?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe we’re talking about going from like Kelvin Herrera to a theoretical Barry Zito who throws strikes

9:39

Jon: I remember Dave Cameron – or maybe someone else at FG – cautioning people against being too excited about Mike Zunino’s robust spring training numbers because of the nature of the pitch type and weather down there (I think). What kind of performances from spring training can/cannot be read into with any predictive significance?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty obviously, velocity changes are important. Those are pretty hard to fake so that’s something to keep an eye on

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: You also want to watch for changes in pitcher repertoire. Lots of guys go out there trying new pitches but only some of those new pitches last the whole spring and remain in the arsenal

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: From a hitter perspective, it would require some digging but I think you can read into changes in pull/opposite success. A few years ago I remember noticing that suddenly Michael Saunders was driving the ball the other way. It was just Arizona, but it seemed meaningful since he hadn’t done that in the past, and sure enough it carried into the summer

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: For me the real fun of spring training is trying to dig through everything to find something, anything of substance

9:41	Larry: Do you like volcanoes more than Eno likes beer?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t visit three volcanoes every day after work

9:43	Raindog: Each of the last two years Austin Jackson has been a better hitter, fielder, and baserunner than Jay Bruce. Bruce will be paid more this year and comes with an acquisition cost that Jackson does not. Why do the Orioles apparently prefer to trade for Bruce than sign Jackson?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume this is true. The Orioles might prefer the right fielder with a history of playing right field. Also, more importantly, they could believe that Jackson is trending down, while Bruce is due to rebound. It seems like there’s a greater likelihood of Bruce getting back to his previous upside. The Orioles love their power, and Bruce could conceivably hit well again with his legs underneath him

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It does seem like Jackson is being somewhat underrated by the market but I think the perception is that he’s mostly finished as a regular

9:46	2-D: If you had free rein to completely redesign Coors’ outfield fences what would they look like?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: They’d look the same but they’d randomly flash a sequence of neon lights to mess up the hitter’s vision

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: (The fences aren’t an issue. No sense in doing much with the fences.)

9:47	Jim: What Tweet of yours do you think has gotten the most retweets?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Never checked. Probably some stupid gif

9:48	Q-Ball: What unfinished business do you think is out there? For one, I think the White Sox must be looking for quality defensive OF. Anything else?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Corner OF for the Orioles, corner OF for the Angels, 1B for the Rockies, maybe some bullpen help for the Marlins with Capps unfortunately hurt

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The White Sox could definitely use an outfielder as well

9:49	Kim: What/who is a comp for Boog Powell’s ceiling?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Brett Gardner

9:49	Pretty Tony: With Maybin out with a bum wrist, does Tony Gose play everyday and is this an advisable thing for a baseball team striving for success?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: That’s never advisable, but Maybin should only be out for about a month at most. So they can weather this provided Gose bats like eighth or ninth

9:50	Zonk: Cubs current division odds are currently 85% per Fangraphs, with Pirates and Cardinals in high single digits. Do you buy that? Does your model account for curses?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: No, I don’t buy that. I agree that the Cubs are the heavy favorites, but I like the Cardinals and Pirates more than the projections do

9:51	Jake: hi jeff! i wanted to ask you about your experiences at Lookout Landing. i currently write about the yankees, and was wondering if you had any tips for people who have to focus on a single ball-club. how did you generate ideas for writing when your scope was limited to one team?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: The disadvantage is you have only one team to write about. The advantage is that you can go super in depth on stuff that wouldn’t play on a national level, because the people reading are big big fans who just want to read as much as they can about the team in question. So you can write about, like, a player’s true platoon splits or something, whereas if I tried to do that on FanGraphs it might be met with yawns and dismissal

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s also important to mix in plenty of articles that aren’t just analytical. Have some fun with it, if that’s something you’re comfortable with. No better idea generator in the world than just watching or listening to a baseball game

9:55

klof: Could teams save money and give themselves a real home field advantage by moving their fences to 430+ to prevent most home runs, then filling their OF with three true centerfielders with good range, limited power, and high contact skills (and whose skills tend to cost less than corner sluggers), and stocking their pitching staff with fly-ball pitchers who would be giving up outs instead of HRs? Thinking specifically about COL and their wall changes but any small market team might benefit from this. The home field advantage of this might be cancelled out by having no true power hitters for road games. Thoughts?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: There’s a theory out there that the more distinctive and unique a ballpark, the stronger the home-field advantage. The home team can customize itself for the stadium, and the road team won’t be able to do that, and that could be worth a win or three

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: But leaving aside how the league would never go or this — you’d still have a bunch of home runs, just of the inside-the-park variety. And so many doubles and triples. It’s not like fences are the only thing keeping home runs from being catchable. Those balls are struck very well and they seldom hang up enough for outfielders to get to them. Would-be homers would just sail over the outfielders’ heads, and then those guys would have to run a bunch to recover the ball before the hitter made it to home anyway

9:57	Marc : Will pedro ever sign with a team? Is overseas a realistic option?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Nah, he’ll get a chance

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: And given that he’s one of the more extreme fastball hitters in the league, Japan might be murder on his statistics

9:59	TF Fredrik: How do balance finding topics to research/write about that go against the grain & those that fall in with the established beliefs currently out there in analytics/sabermetrics? Put it another way, Do you like trying to find something new, or continuing/bettering what we have already?