Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/17/15

April 17, 2015

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to ordinary late-starting Friday baseball chat

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Late because I was reading baseball articles, for the sake of improving this baseball chat!

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Some of you are going to ask me fantasy baseball questions. I strongly advise against this

9:11	Comment From Northsider Huge call up for the Chicago Cubs this week!!! What are your thoughts on Zac Rosscup?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Not a lot of player names with “cup” in it

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Rosscup has 30% big-league strikeouts. Almost allows you to overlook the 6+ ERA!

9:12	Comment From Timber Hi Jeff. Hope you had a great week. Assuming Josh Hamilton is healthy and ready to play in a few weeks, what happens?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I have to assume he returns to the Angels. He’s already getting paid his money for this year, and I don’t think any sort of settlement could be figured out between now and then. People would get rightly pissed off if the Angels were deliberately not using a healthy player

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: But then you run into the problem with establishing grounds for the future — how could the Angels try to terminate Hamilton’s contract, based on what he did last offseason, if they made use of him after the fact? It’s complicated, further still by the fact that he’s untradeable. Sooooooo

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I think several months from now, the Angels and Hamilton come together and try to reach an agreement where Hamilton gets most of but not all of his money. If they want him out, and if he wants out, a compromise can be reached

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: In the meantime, if healthy Hamilton knocks 25 dingers, maybe the Angels will think twice

9:14	Comment From Bruce Whats your HOTTAKE: For or against the cardinals wearing a patch for Oscar Taveras all year?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I cannot imagine having a hot take on this. If the Cardinals want to honor their teammate, that’s up to them

9:15	Comment From L. Scott Hey Jeff!! Is this possibly the longest we have ever gone into a season without a CG?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: As I’m sure you know, complete games are on the decline. Just 118 of them a year ago, half as many as there were in 2000

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: And this early in the year, I think you’d see even fewer complete games than average, since pitchers are still building up arm strength and no one wants to push a guy too far with a healthy and rested bullpen.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s check the data…

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Last year, April had the fewest complete games of any month

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: But it still had 15! As opposed to this year’s 0. So this is a bit unusual, even with the trend

9:18	Comment From Bret Devon Travis – is he for real? I mean, not like the numbers he’s putting up so far, but does he look like a league average hitter this year?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I like him! If he’s not league-average, he’s close enough so as to make it just splitting hairs

9:19	Comment From Where are my Sox? If the Red Sox pitching falters in the coming weeks, does that make them any more likely to make a stronger push for Hamels again?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: First Hamels also needs to stop faltering

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely, as you increase the Red Sox’s probability of struggling, you increase their chances of making a play for Hamels. But, obviously, Betts is way off the table, even more than ever. And Swihart could be up soon. So you end up in the same place, and there will be other options on the market. It’s an obvious fit that just refuses to fit

9:21	Comment From _David_ How fixable is Taijian Walker? How long would you wait to bring up Elias (who hasn’t been sharp in AAA)?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Another 2-3 starts for Walker. If he’s still a mess, he goes away.

9:22	Comment From BrisKryant Jeff, can you talk more about something you said in last week’s chat, with regard to a subtle pro-team bias in analytics? (I might be paraphrasing.) There was an article on the community blog earlier in the week that touched on similar topics that I found very interesting

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: The article kind of hit on it — we generally approach things from a team-first perspective, because people follow teams, so we try to figure out how teams can maximize their chances of success. We talk about contracts being team-friendly or team-unfriendly. We explain away things like the Kris Bryant demotion. Seldom do we approach writing from a player-first perspective, acting instead like players are replaceable and the overpaid ones are problematic

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: It’s complicated and I feel like I”m not wording this very well on the fly, but I think you know what I mean. Analytics doesn’t talk about player job security, or the personal side of the business. It’s all about efficiently shuffling pieces until a team is as good as it can be with its payroll. I don’t think there’s anything sinister about it, but it is what it is. And, as it happens, players are getting a lower share of revenue than ever…

9:26	Comment From Curtis How long before we see advanced stat discussion on the Little league World Series broadcast?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: can you imagine the route efficiency of those little shits

9:26	Comment From Awake in Seattle Is Rodney the next closer to lose his job? Who takes over if he does?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: As Patrick Dubuque tweeted yesterday or the day before, I think, Fernando Rodney still has the lowest blown-save rate in Mariners franchise history

9:28	Comment From _David_ Dustin Ackley confidence meter?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty helpful to not have to face lefties

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: I like that he’s elevated some baseballs, and he’s had a pretty aggressive approach, maybe trying to show that he can punish bad strikes. He doesn’t look like Dustin Ackley: major-league rookie. This is a different guy. But he’s so different that I think it’s best to wait several more weeks to see what ‘s going on

9:30	Comment From Guest If trees were pink all year round would we be excited for green blossoms

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: hell yes we would

9:31	Comment From mtsw I keep reading that hitters with a high GB% perform better against fly-ball pitchers and hitters with a low GB% perform better vs ground-ball pitchers. Is there any good data on the magnitude of this split and a good explanation for why this is?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: This is all in The Book — that’s the first I ever heard of it

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t find a good link online real quickly, but I bet you can!

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: My suspicion is it mostly has to do with swing planes. GB hitters swing differently than FB hitters. GB pitchers work lower than FB pitchers. FB hitters swing up, and they’re able to get underneath a sinking fastball, whereas a high fastball might get blown right by them.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: This is an oversimplification, but swing planes can explain a lot

9:33	Comment From Mike Jeff – Over/under – number of teams Arencibia signs a contract with during his career. I have 7.5.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. Where is he now?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Looks like he’s up to…4?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: He’s 29 and bad. He’s only made about $3 million. Without knowing anything about Arencibia personally, I’m going to take the over. Four or five more years of bouncing around

9:36

Comment From Jack
What do you think of Choo? From Eno’s article it looks like he feels like he should play hurt if he can get out there. I know it’s early but he’s already got 7 K’s & they haven’t started him in 3 games & took him out early in 3 others. He’s obviously still recovering form various ailments. Is ’15 going to be a repeat of ’14?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: (Sorry about that, knock at the door)

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t recovery from last year’s problems — Choo has been dealing with some back discomfort and you want to take it easy on those this early in the season

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s pretty clear he got off to a promising start a year ago before all the injuries really took their toll, so it’s not right to say he’s completely toast, but I think you run into the question — how often is he really playing at 100%? 100% Choo is still a good hitter, but if he’s usually dealing with something wrong, then that’s just a part of his reality

9:41	Comment From Martha Are you as bearish on Carlos Martinez as your colleague, Dave Cameron?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Big fastball, two trusted secondary pitches, changeup with a similar release point as the heater. I like him more than Dave does

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I think Dave has some additional concerns about Martinez’s frame, but I’m not going to pretend like I know how to predict pitcher durability

9:42	Comment From ITS BRYANT TIME What do think Bryant’s debut batting line will be? (e.g. 1-4, K, 2B or whatever)

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: James Shields and the Padres bullpen?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say Shields leaves a changeup hanging, and Bryant slugs it for extra bases. Otherwise he’ll go hitless in the other three at-bats, with two strikeouts and a routine fly

9:44	Comment From _David_ Is it worth trying to pursue an upgrade to LoMo? Seeing as 1b is an offensive position, those extra wins will be expensive, and DJ Peterson might be ready at some point (at least next year)

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Morrison should not have very much job security, but it might work to just eventually pair him with Kivlehan

9:45

Comment From L. Scott
Did you see the call reversal at Citifield involving Ichiro? It appears d”arnaud tagged his helmet and that’s why he was called out initially. If the umpire heard the glove hit his helmet and therefore called him out, do the replay officials take that information into consideration, or is it strictly based on the umpires back in NY viewing the videos? I would think input from the home plate umpire would help.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to level with you — I didn’t see this. However! I can still try to give an answer

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: If the glove struck the helmet with sufficient force as to be audible, you’d assume you could see that on the video. It’s the video that should be fully conclusive — sounds can be deceptive, and though video replay isn’t perfect, you ought to be able to tell what happened even with the sound off. I’d assume it’s based on the video. The home-plate umpire might say what he heard, but the people on the other end will just look at the footage

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Real quick, I’m going to take a look at this play. Sorry!

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Ok, watched it. I don’t know how you could really hear the glove hitting the helmet on that play

9:50	Comment From Guest Wait do you even have spring in the grey and tepid year-round nw

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Our weather is glorious. We have the best summers in the country!

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: But, stay away. Don’t move here.

9:51	Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry You are condemned to a life of one band on repeat the rest of your life. Spice Girls or Ace of Base?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: It seems like Ace of Base had five albums, while the Spice Girls had three. So in the interest of variety, I’d go with Ace of Base, and then I would swiftly and calmly kill myself

9:52	Comment From Guest Kevin Pillar v. Kevin Millar FITE

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: This reminds me of something unrelated

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Aaron Hill is available. Trevor Cahill has been available. My dream is to see one team with A. Hill, Cahill, and Scahill

9:54	Comment From mtsw How many innings do you think Ubaldo makes it tonight at Fenway?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: almost five!

9:54	Comment From Totally Not A Phillies Fan What are you expecting from Salazar on his return? Do you think he’ll start getting regular starts?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this is his big opportunity. Carlos Carrasco avoided catastrophe and McAllister is too interesting for the Indians to bump out of the rotation so soon. Salazar will float around as the sixth starter, but his work won’t be consistent. A lot like his command

9:56	Comment From _David_ Franklin Gutierrez is off to a nice start at AAA, and I assume he could get a chance if Ruggiano and/or Weeks craters. Do you have any idea what his defense is at this point? I’m optimistic in that his skills are based more on good reads and routes than athleticism.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: His condition is too unpredictable to make a move without knowing how he’ll hold up. They have to see what Gutierrez is doing in Tacoma playing back-to-back games over the course of months. Maybe he shows that he’s an option in the second half, but I wouldn’t hold my breath

9:57	Comment From Bungle Do you buy Jed Lowrie’s park move and early start?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Fly-ball hitter back in a park that rewards fly-ball hitters. He made a good choice

9:58	Comment From Jason So, the Rays seem a lot better than they should be. Is a division title out of the question? Wild Card?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: No one should’ve written them off — all the projections had them as at least a .500 team. I think it’ll be tough for them to keep up with Boston’s top-end talent and bottom-end depth, but there’s no reason why Tampa can’t hang around for a wild-card position

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: They don’t even need Matt Moore to throw strikes!

9:59	Comment From JC Should I bench Tulo vs Kershaw and start Jed Lowrie instead?