Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/28/17

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:03	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:03	Sock Therapy: Is Aaron Judge the messiah

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Some people are made in something superior to God’s image

9:04	Rick: I was expecting an article on Jared Weaver popping out the side against the Marlins.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I would’ve, too, if I knew that that happened. Alas, sometimes there’s too much good stuff 🙁

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Side note: five starts, 10 homers for Jered Weaver. Records will be broken!

9:06	John: What’s up with Daniel Norris?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: If I could put an optimistic spin on things, his stuff seems fine, and so many of the rates are similar. Same zone rate, same contact rate, same swing rates, almost. He’s not sharp, and I notice that Norris’ pace has slowed down by more than four seconds — that’s weird. But I think he can get settled into a groove before long

9:07	Relsh: Hey Jeff, both Lynn and Wacha seem to rely heavily on their fastball usage, is the coincidence or a result of the type of game Yadi likes to call?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Lynn has been fastball-first for forever. That’s just his thing

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Wacha…doesn’t have a high fastball rate. Lots of cutters and changeups.

9:09	Darwin (No, not the dolphin): How long do you think it will be before pitcher wins are no longer regularly discussed during a baseball game broadcast?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I think by now everyone knows they’re silly. Within five years they’ll seldom be mentioned

9:09	Tanner: Biggest non-Thames surprise/story of April?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: For me this was going to be a huge year for determining what Bryce Harper is, and he seems to have decided to be amazing again

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: But you’ve also got the surprising slumps of the Giants/Mets/Blue Jays, which has shaken things up

9:11	captainpeanutbutter: Do you get less questions about why you are so low on Gsellman?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny, his name hasn’t come up

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: That being said, he’s nowhere close to as bad as his current ERA. I figured he was something like a No. 4. We’ll see where his numbers end up when he stops just facing the Marlins, Phillies, and Braves

9:12	caesarsolid: Arrieta’s velocity is still down from last year, but his k% is at a career high and bb% at a career low – what do you make of him going forward?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: In his most recent start, his velocity ticked up. So that’s something. And perhaps his location has improved a little bit while not throwing at 100%. I still don’t trust his command all that much but the movement he generates is sufficient to avoid hard contact

9:14	Oddball Herrera: Aaron Hicks – guy who deserves a spot as a regular or mediocre bench bat who’s just had string of good games?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not prepared to say that Hicks should be playing every day, but right now he’s on pace for almost 400 plate appearances. I think that sounds about right.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be very interesting to look at him in a month and see if he’s still swinging at basically zero pitches out of the zone

9:16	Carl: What do you make or early season success from Conforto- you buying? Also, check out his batted ball profile- prettt interesting!

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: You get my attention when you take Max Scherzer deep

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: The batted-ball quality is there. Simply a matter of making enough contact. Apparently the Mets won’t trust Conforto to hit lefties, but for now he’s a super useful mostly-regular

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: He was never going to stay as bad as he looked last season

9:19

JTT: Jeff, is Kenny Lofton the least fortunate player of recent memory? He has been on the wrong end of most of the most epic postseason collapses of his era. The 2002 World Series, the 2003 NLCS, the 2004 ALCS and the 2007 ALCS. Not to mention losing the 1995 WS as well. John Smoltz lost 4 world series but he did at least get 1 win.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Not gonna lie to you, I had zero recollection of Kenny Lofton on the 2004 Yankees

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: There’s also Lofton not getting a job in 2008 even though in 2007 he was a 3-win player

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: And don’t forget his immediately falling off the HoF ballot despite 62 career WAR

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Lofton, at least, got to play for two decades, and he got plenty of playoff experience. Plus, you know, he earned 61 million dollars. But still, ouch

9:22	Jack: Concern level for Encarnacion? He’s striking out a whole lot, which is something he didn’t do a lot of for a power hitter in the past.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really have a scale, but…4 out of 10

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: You don’t like to see all the swings and misses, but he’s had a handful of recent 20-game stretches with 27% strikeouts or so. If he’s still doing this in a month, then that’s bad

9:24	S: Which team will still be in a playoff race in September: Rockies, Dbacks, or neither?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I think I’m buying the Rockies more. It seems like a big blow to Arizona to lose Shelby Miller. But then, my two NL wild-card teams were the Mets and Giants. They’re several games behind both of these teams. So now they’re each positioned to be playing meaningful baseball for a while

9:26	Maxamuz: What’s your take on David Peralta? Hitting 2nd in the DBacks linup (agianst RHP \| 7th v LHP) and seems to be producing near his 2015 numbers. Smoke and mirrors or do you think he’ll be a valuable source for the Dbacks throughout the year?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I like his game a lot and he spent almost all of last season fighting a…was it a back problem? I think it was a back problem. Some kind of discomfort, anyway

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Solid, all-around hitter. Except for the platoon part. But he’s good

9:27	Evil Goatee Jeff: What are you doing with all of the time you’ve saved this year on the new no-pitch intentional walk rule?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Eating one cracker

9:28	ryan: is the axe bat going to make any actual difference in the game?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe fewer busted hamates?

9:28	CK: So what’s it feel like to be almost a month into the post-Cubs-World-Series era? Do you think baseball is a bit weird now that there aren’t the Lovable Losers(tm) to kick around?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: This would be a better question for somebody else. I never really thought of the Cubs in that way, so I don’t think of them any differently now

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Even before the World Series, I looked at the Cubs as a team in far better position than nearly every other team. That remains true

9:29	striker: If the Brewers are in the race at the trade deadline, does Quintana make sense for them? They have the blue chips to make it happen and they have enough depth that it wouldn’t sting as much. White Sox could add a bullpen arm or a Holland/Gonzalez to sweeten the deal.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I get where you’re coming from but no matter the circumstances I have trouble seeing a team like the Brewers unloading for Quintana in July

9:30	NewFaces: What big name prospect gets the call first? What callup makes the biggest impact this year?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I think the answer was already Cody Bellinger

9:32	S: Would a pitcher be charged with murder if a HBP caused the death of a player and was determined intentional?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think…murder would be the charge

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: A handful of hockey players have been charged with assault when they’ve done great harm to another player on the ice

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe voluntary manslaughter would stick?

9:34	Bear Hands: Ian Happ, Ian Happ. What do you do with Ian Happ? A grand slam yesterday. Walking a lot. How long do you keep him with the Iowa Cubs and not the Chicago Cubs?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Ian Happ now has 20 games of being good above A-ball. What’s the rush?

9:35	Charlie Sheep: I was surprised to see the Yankees lead MLB in run differential despite having some things go wrong during their good start. Noise, right? Not evidence that they may be the class of the AL?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees aren’t one of the league’s elites, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t underrated coming in. The bullpen has depth beyond Betances/Chapman and the emerge of Severino has made a big impact on the rotation

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Legitimate contending team. They haven’t even had Sanchez yet

9:36	Ruben Quevedo: Will Berrios be at least a passable starter this year when he gets called up?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Passable, sure

9:37	PF: What’s wrong with Osuna?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Results

9:38	John: How should we expect Starling Marte’s stolen base numbers to age? He’s 29.5 next year… do you expect him to be a 40+ SB threat going forward?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t!

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: But I do expect him to still contribute positive baserunning value

9:39

Mork ate Mindy: So what’s your take on Motter? I mean, he’s not going to continue with 75% of his hits going for extra bases, so that ISO is going to go down, but he sure does hit the ball pretty hard. He’s also pretty versatile and can play ok defense at a fair few positions. Flash in the pan, or do you see signs that he can be a useful player for the M’s?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Wrote a little about him on Monday. I don’t think Motter is going to be the best hitter on the team or anything, but I really can see him as kind of a Dozier-lite. The pull-heavy approach is clearly exploitable, but pitchers just aren’t actually that good at control

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: For me, a month ago, Motter was nothing. Now I buy him as a long-term big-leaguer

9:41	Ben: Are you most surprised that the White Sox, Phillies, or Brewers are above .500 so far? Which one has the best chance of staying that way?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Of the three I think I’d be most surprised by the White Sox. I’d give the Brewers the best chance

9:42	JamesKrause: Should the Royals trade Duffy at the fire sale? Dave said it would be really bad business because it seems like he took a hometown discount but what are your thoughts

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I really can’t see them doing that

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good way to make sure you never get the benefit of the doubt from a player again

9:43	caesarsolid: Could someone effectively manage an MLB team if they had never played professional ball themselves? Has any non-player ever even managed?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: You’d need to have spent several years around ballplayers, as some sort of coach, first. If you just inserted a guy with zero experience, he’d never, ever command clubhouse respect

9:45	A Guy: Why can’t the Red Sox hit baseballs anymore? Is Ortiz not being in the lineup really that detrimental?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It’s really just been one bad week. I don’t care about one bad week

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a very good lineup, and the end-of-season numbers are going to reflect that

9:47	Pearced: Any idea what happened to the Jays?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Lost Encarnacion to another team, lost Donaldson to injury, lost Bautista to age. They’re better than this, but there’ve been some brutal blows to the very core of the roster

9:49	Oddball Herrera: Count me among those totally baffled about what to make of Hernan Perez – suddenly last season he’s contributing in power and SBs, and now he’s walking too?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: His chase rate is still as bad as ever. I think he’s mostly just been facing bad pitching

9:49	bosoxforlife: Are the Mets worse than the Yankees are good?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t understand a good way to approach this question

9:50	Crimpton: It’s April. But still, is there something to this Red Sox slump? Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ramirez and Bradley are all slugging .150 (!) less than last year on average. Can that offense survive without power?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No, but thankfully, it will hit for power

9:50	botchatheny: would you enjoy the game more if molten lava was in foul territory?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: People would die

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No I would not enjoy the game more

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Just because I like baseball and volcanoes does not mean I would like having the two blended together

9:51	CF: What do you think of Harvey so far? His very low K rate is pretty concerning…

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I’m willing to forgive what he did yesterday since I don’t think he was expecting to start in that game, but even before then, he was hittable. I think he’s becoming a strike-thrower as opposed to a bat-misser

9:52	J.J. Hoover: Will I be sucking up the saves in Arizona after Fernando Rodney finds his quiver empty?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Feels like Archie Bradley’s thing

9:55

Vlad’s Dad: Sorry if this has already been discussed but has the new CBA rules regarding draft pick compensation negatively affected trade values? For instance someone like Josh Donaldson could be traded in July and play 1.5 years for his new team and then sign elsewhere for minimal compensation whereas previously they would essentially be trading for Josh Donaldson and a 1st round pick. Seems like it would seriously impact values…

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/210035584/mlb-cba-affects-draft-internat…

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Donaldson would’ve meant a pick at the end of the first round. Now he probably means a pick at the end of the first or the second round

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: There’s an effect, but it’s not an enormous one. The end-of-first-round picks are already worth so much less than the top 5

9:56	ChiSox2020: Wow I knew Kahnle looked good but your article opened my eyes. Big trade piece? He throws 100…

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: You naturally have to think about any of these guys as trade pieces but I think it’s less fun to focus on that aspect

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: If Kahnle is still throwing strikes and dealing in July, boom, you have a right-handed Chapman to move

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, I know it’s an embarrassingly small sample of data, but Kahnle’s stuff is obvious and I like the mechanical correction he made. I’m speculating that he’s gotten much better

9:57	2-D: Hey I think the Nationals like hitting at Coors.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Surely a trait that is unique to them

9:58	Jake: If the Mariners find themselves out of contention before the deadline, which of their veterans could they trade and get positive value from? How much of Cano’s contract would they have to eat to find a taker?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much no way Cano would be a midseason deal

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I know there’s the Tulowitzki counter-example but it’s almost impossible to execute

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: It’s…not a good ballclub to try to sell from

9:58	Jacob: Do you think Haniger’s unfortunate injury guarantees that Motter continues to play pretty much everyday for the time being?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’s not getting benched any time soon. Haniger leaves one void, and the other corner is occupied by Guillermo Heredia

9:59	Hannah Hochevar: How quick does IFFB% stabilize? Specifically worried about Manny Machado, who has an elevated one and decimated batting line to match. Thanks!