Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/5/17

May 5, 2017

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:05	Trader Joe: True or False?: Rockies would be better off trading LeMahieu for pitching and calling up Ryan McMahon to play 2B.

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: That seems very false

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: McMahon has one good month of playing at Double-A after a bad fall league and a mediocre full season

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: And although you weren’t specific I will note that nobody makes major-league trades in April or May

9:06	ryan: what are the odds Trout puts up consecutive 12 WAR seasons?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: He has yet to post a single 12-WAR season, or even an 11-WAR season

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: So something like 1% probably

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Way too much working against him

9:08	Something brewing: Do you think the Brewers should give Jesus Aguilar a chance to get a few more at bats to see what he can do?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Firstly, how would they do that? He’s a big boy. Plays first base, if anything. The Brewers already have Eric Thames

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Secondly, he hasn’t even hit all that well for a first baseman in the high minors. So I doubt there’s a whole lot in there at this point

9:09	Evil Goatee Jeff: Dylan Bundy isn’t down to Kyle Hendricks speeds yet…can he continue to get guys out?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Bundy had his best stuff in his first start. Since then, he’s got 10 walks, 17 strikeouts, and an xFIP over 5. Now, it doesn’t help any pitcher to have to face the Red Sox so often, so Bundy’s not a nightmare or anything, but that first start got people a little too excited

9:11	Don’t Panik: Do you think the Giants are underutilizing Joe Panik’s ability to steal bases?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s take a look!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: He’s just 9-for-11 in his big-league career

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Even in the minors he didn’t steal very much

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: So I’d say, no, I don’t think Panik has any particular ability to steal bases

9:14	Evil Goatee Jeff: Thoughts on Kendall Graveman’s recent stinker?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: The odd stinker is allowed, so it’s just one start. But Graveman has had a recent DL stint and, at the end of the day, I doubt his sinker is so good he can rely on it alone. I’d like to see him with a solid second pitch at some point

9:15	John: Is Chris Taylor just Daniel Murphy with 60 Fielding and 80 Eyebrows?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: There’s an important question in here. Are super thick eyebrows the same as perfect eyebrows?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. Taylor checks off the first box, at least

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll have to get in touch with a stylist

9:18	Zed: Is this season’s McCutchen looking like last season’s to you? Slightly improved BB and K rates, but better results just don’t seem to be coming.

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, nothing too good or too bad at this point. Just kind of…fine. McCutchen, so far in 2017, is putting up his lowest average exit velocity on record. He’s had super-hot streaks before that lift his numbers way up and one of those could be around the corner but so far, few signs of a major bounceback

9:20

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Tim Beckham’s swinging a hot bat to the tune of a 133 wRC+. Some of it’s luck, but there are a red flags, namely a 4.8 BB% to a 32.7 K%. The only guy who ever made those sorts of numbers (BB%<7, K%>30) work was 2012 Chris Davis. How do you see Tim’s offensive production this season knowing that he’s going to stop getting pitches to hit soon?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Beckham, for his career, has batted 550 times. Decent sample! 6% walks, 31% strikeouts. 102 wRC+. Somehow, for the equivalent of almost a full season, he’s made this work out

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Upside is so limited when you’re awful with the strike zone, but Beckham has demonstrated he can be an average hitter like this, because he does have power and speed. Given his defensive versatility, he’s not all that different from Javier Baez, I guess you could say

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Less highlight-y

9:22	ryan: do you think that, if the Giants enter a rebuild in the next 2 years, they could consider trading Posey?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: lol no

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Posey is there forever

9:23	DC cab: Would the Nationals be better off moving Turner to CF and letting Difo play regularly instead of Taylor?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Counterpoint: Difo is not good

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Taylor’s at least a good defender, and he doesn’t force Turner to switch on the fly

9:26	Jake: Keon Broxton is showing life! wRC+ over 80, K% under 39, fWAR over 0. You still comfortable projecting a league average bat and above average player?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I know this isn’t really how things work, but if you split Broxton’s brief 2017 in half, you have 46% K and a wRC+ of 9, and then you have 31% K and a wRC+ of 171

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like I can sit here and claim to be encouraged by how Broxton has begun, but his defense out there remains in the highest class, and I think his contact skills are better than his strikeout numbers. I’m still a fan

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: My comfort level, relative to a month ago, is only slightly reduced

9:29	Old timer: Matt Boyd. Better than I expected for sure. Sustainable or more smoke and mirrors?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: So, on the one hand, there’s nothing positively sustainable about a K-BB% of 5%. That’s bad! Based on that, he doesn’t deserve a sub-4 ERA

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, I like Boyd, and I don’t think his strikeouts and walks accurately reflect his ability to throw strikes and miss bats. He’s a useful mid-rotation starter, to me

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It looks to me like in the early going, Boyd has been screwed by a bad strike zone

9:31	Ned Yost: Bregman for Donaldson one for one. Who says no?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Astros would. I get why in theory you’d make that exchange, but they could lean on how much better they are than everyone else in the AL West. They don’t need to make a move like that

9:32	Joe and Paul: Is Arismendy Alcantara better than the Reds are giving him credit for?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Strikes out too often for someone who doesn’t walk or hit for power. Fourth outfielder type for the moment

9:34	Keith Hernandez: is there hope for Harvey going forward? Velo is there and all the same pitches, however, strikeouts are gone and he seems to be laboring through innings

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: Harvey looks better if you forgive him the one start he apparently didn’t expect to have to make. That doesn’t make the strikeouts suddenly reappear, but you’d be a fool not to bet on his repertoire in the longer-term. He probably needs to re-learn how to use what he has, maybe in a different way, but he’s in a blessed position, in general

9:36	The Average Sports Fan: Are the White Sox actually not terrible?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: They’ve mostly beat up on the Royals, who might actually be terrible

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The position players, collectively, haven’t been very good. The rotation, collectively, hasn’t been very good. The bullpen has been terrific! Which not many people expected. I’m all aboard the Kahnle train

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I can buy the White Sox as just being a little bad, instead of very bad. But we’re also all counting on them to deal Quintana, Robertson, Jones, etc. So in the second half, things could be ugly. And don’t look now but Giolito has been a wreck

9:39	Colinbaseball: Why has league-wide BABIP not dipped with the increase in shifts?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Always a fun thing to notice

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: A few possible reasons. Hits the other way seem to be making up for lost hits to the pull side. And you also have the possibility that hitters are just hitting the ball harder than before. So it could be that league-wide BABIP would have risen by now if it *weren’t* for the shift. We’re missing that counterfactual

9:41

BHAM: Hi Jeff. Thanks for chatting!

How long does it take for Plate Discipline stats to stabilize? In particular looking at Adam Duvall. O-Swing/Z-Swing are both down, and Contact% is up. Looks like power is up over ’16 as well. My question is … are we seeing a new Duvall that holds moving forward?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to figure it’s a Duvall thing when we’re seeing the same with Suarez, Cozart, etc. Just based on that I think you need to give the players more time

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: But I see the reduced swing rate and increased contact rate. Those are good. It’s been a promising first month

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: One thing I can’t recommend enough: play around with player graphs http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10950

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Duvall this year has played in 27 games. Check out his history for rolling 27-game stretches. See if he’s ever done what he’s currently doing. You’ll see that most players, historically speaking, have been fairly cyclical

9:44

Ben: So on Tuesday Edinson Volquez gave up 1 HR, walked 8, and struck out 9 in only 4.1 innings. Then last night Zach Eflin pitched 7 innings with 0 HR, 0 BB, and only 1 SO (which didn’t come until the 6th inning). Is that crazy or what? Also, is Eflin trying to single-handedly stem the tide of baseball’s 3 true outcome trend?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Graveman might be trying to help with the cause

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: And I think Wade Miley recently had a start that looked kind of similar to that Volquez line

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Miley’s last two starts: 12 innings, 4 runs, 11 walks, 14 strikeouts. Ugh

9:46	Leone for Third Eye Blind: What was the greatest moment in the history of bitter “natural” rivals Padres and Mariners?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: For some reason one thing comes to me in particular

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA200406270.shtml

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners dumped Jeff Cirillo on the Padres after a terrible and terribly disappointing two seasons. In Seattle, Cirillo went and got himself booed. Miserable time. When the Mariners faced Cirillo in San Diego in 2004, he hit an eventual game-winning three-run homer off Jamie Moyer

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Another fun part of the rivalry might’ve been how the two clubs exchanged like three hundred players and not a single one of them was ever any good

9:48	Stars & Scrubs Forever: The Cards seem to be contenders through the woes of the Mets, Giants and Pirates. However, what exactly could they “buy” with their balanced roster, unless they are willing to boot Waino?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The easy answer is Quintana. Long way to go before the Cards know if that’s something they want to pursue

9:49	Zed: See any reason to be concerned by Kyle Seager’s slow start? Making more hard contact lately, though still not much to show for it.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Technically he does still have a 100 wRC+

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: 124 since April 10

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: He’s fine. The homers will come

9:50	Jim-Bob: If Joey Votto is “THE GUY” and Jose Abreu is “a guy” and Tommy Joseph is “just some guy” at 1B, where do you see Josh Bell settling in over the next few years?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: another guy

9:50	Beep Boop: You buying into Yonder Alonso’s changes? He’s always had some raw power, and he seems to have made changes that are allowing him to access it in games. Viable everyday 1B?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: He’s showing all the hallmarks. Strikeouts up, ground balls down, power up. He’s always had a decent idea of the strike zone so I can see this being a real change for the better. He’s not this good but I can finally see him as being a relevant player

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Yonder Alonso figured out how to be good, and we’re still waiting on Eric Hosmer.

9:53	Blah: Bogaerts: 0hr. What’s going on with him? Did he change his approach? Time to worry, or too early?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Bogaerts, 2015: 109 wRC+. Bogaerts, 2016: 113 wRC+. Bogaerts, 2017: 113 wRC+

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: He’s back to spraying the ball and hitting the ball on the ground. He’s making more contact than ever, while swinging less than ever at pitches out of the zone. At some point, he’ll hit a homer, but this version is fine

9:56	ChiSox2020: Who’s hot start are you buying: Derek Holland or Miguel Gonzalez?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Neither

9:56	Freddie Freeman: Is Sportvision still there running PITCHf/x behind the scenes at MLB stadiums or did they stop once MLB went full Statcast for the 2017 season?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the actual answer to this, but I can guess — I don’t know why Sportvision would still be doing anything in the majors

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I think they had year-to-year agreements they’d renew, and now that Statcast has gone full, there’s no point

9:58	Daniel Castro : What should we expect from Amir Garrett going forward this season? The Brewers game seems like the outlier of a pretty solid start to his campaign.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a league-average-y starter. Will probably tire in September, but that won’t matter much

9:59	Hector: Hello – what is your opinion of Robbie Ray so far? Has he made any tweaks that make you think he can sustain a low to mid 3 ERA? The Ks seem to still be there.