Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/7/13

May 7, 2013

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Okay! Let’s start late like usual.

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Ordinary caveats:

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: (1) I am not a fantasy baseball expert (2) I am not a baseball expert (3) There are a lot of questions that go in the queue

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: One-time caveat: (4) I’ve been out of town due to a wedding and I just got back late last night so I’m not at all caught up on what’s going on in baseball. Six-day blind spot!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: So know ahead of time that this is going to be the least satisfying live chat in FanGraphs history. At least, in my FanGraphs history. I apologize and next week will be normal. You may see yourselves out.

9:05	Comment From Delusional Braves Fan SIMMONS! Suck it haters

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody hates Andrelton Simmons but people do hate people who think other people are haters

9:05	Comment From Guest Eno is being awesome again with his last piece on A.J. Ellis.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: If the future of baseball writing is expertly blending analysis with player info/feedback then Eno is ahead of the curve, which might also explain the way that he looks. Eno is here from the future

9:06	Comment From Kevin When will a team truly appreciate Brendan Ryan?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: When he’s actually a good overall player

9:06	Comment From Timothy Dave Cameron said you were on vacation last week. So fill us curious fangraphs readers in. Where did you go? What did you do? Whom did you go with?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Cape Cod wedding, and Oregon is prettier

9:07	Comment From Keyser Soze Jose Fernadez’s fastball doesn’t move very much. How much of that is that he came from High-A and how much of that is pure “stuff”?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Give me one moment to confirm…

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: By the numbers, it doesn’t seem problematic or unusual to me. Looks like he throws a four-seamer and a two-seamer. The four-seamer has less horizontal movement and it’s thrown kind of over the top, so I don’t see any cause for alarm

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: To more directly answer your question, I don’t think a hasty promotion would reduce the movement on a guy’s pitches. If a guy were moved too fast, the pitches would be the same but the location could be poor

9:10	Comment From zack The Yankees have been getting excellent production from Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner and last year they got freak years from Ichiro and Chaves. Is it possible that many teams are undervaluing older, injury prone veterans and that the Yankees are exploiting a market inefficiency?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: It’s possible that the pendulum has swung a little too far in favor of youth and cost control, leaving the old and infirm slightly undervalued, but I don’t think this is a major market inefficiency. It could just be a minor market inefficiency

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: #KennyLofton

9:12	Comment From Guest Royals, I mean the Royals, like the Royals are, Royals? What to make of them?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: The Royals are 17-11. Last August the Royals went 17-11. Last July they went 7-19, and last September they went 12-17. Just give them time, a lot more time. They are an interesting team but just because it’s May now doesn’t mean it isn’t still frighteningly early

9:13	Comment From Guest Do you see the Senators pulling off this series against the ‘Habs?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Yes!

9:13	Comment From Brian Rick Ankiel has a much higher 2013 wRC+ than Josh Hamilton

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Josh Hamilton has been completely terrible

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, what if it doesn’t get better?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Slugging .296!

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: But, same note as with the Royals. It’s May 7.

9:15	Comment From Keyser Soze Posey and Bumgarner really spent an outrageous amount of time whining about the zone last night. Thoughts? http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=5&day=6&year=2013&game=gid_2013_05_06_phimlb_sfnmlb_1%2F&prevDate=56

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see much to complain about

9:16	Comment From Paul Which team has impressed you the most a month into the season?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know whether to say the Cardinals or the Rockies

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: one of those teams, is the answer, to me

9:17	Comment From GoGoMrPoPo Jeff, thoughts on the turmoil roiling ‘neath the elms of your dear old Trinity?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a clue what you’re talking about

9:18	Comment From Mike Is Middlebrooks overmatched? What’s your thought on his future?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: I think when players don’t walk, pitchers will make adjustments to exploit that, and then it’s on the hitters to re-adjust back. Middlebrooks, presumably, is in the midst of that process, and I think in the future he will be an adequate regular player who is far from being a superstar

9:20	Comment From Dan Excited for potential World Series preview tonight? Nats/Tigers

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball isn’t going to truly excite me until the NHL playoffs are over. There’s still a whole lot of baseball to go.

9:22	Comment From Kris Is Gattis’ bat worth having him play in Left Field…?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: It’s worth trying in the meantime. We don’t really know what Gattis’ bat is yet, and Heyward’s health has given the Braves a golden opportunity to experiment. Basically, we don’t yet know enough to answer this question

9:23

Comment From mr. anonymous
Paul Konerko.. His contact rates are all close to normal, except o-contact%, which is down drastically. His k% is up 5%. since contact rates should be fairly stable by now, what does this mean? is this who he is now? his babip is down roughly .050 so i expect his avg to climb a little, but with the o-contact being down has he permanently gained some strikeouts?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: This, to me, seems like a matter of sample sizes.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: It’s easy to look at plate-discipline rates and think they should have more or less stabilized by now.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: But what is O-Contact%? It’s contact rate based on O-Swing%, and players don’t rack up O-Swings all that fast. So even though it’s been a month of the season, Konerko’s working with a small denominator in this category.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: If my calculations are correct, then based on Konerko’s player page, he’s attempted 47 swings at pitches out of the zone. That’s way too small a sample to conclude anything. So in short: I wouldn’t worry right now.

9:26

Comment From Jaack
Fun Barry Bonds fact of the day: Barry Bonds ranks sixth among all players in Fangraphs fielding runs, after only Brooks Robinson, Andruw Jones, Mark Belanger, Ozzie Smith, and Roberto Clemente. Obviously older fielding numbers probably aren’t the most accurate, but still. Barry Bonds.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: There could be an entire FanGraphs blog devoted solely to publishing new Barry Bonds fun facts every day.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It could even run on weekends

9:28	Comment From zack What are the odds that Mark Trumbo finishes the year as the Angels most productive offensive player?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Not high, but higher than the Angels would probably like.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Monkey’s paw: “Mark Trumbo, in 2013, will out-produce Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Mike Trout.” Angels execs: “Well that sounds terrific! Thank you, monkey’s paw!”

9:31	Comment From zack Have Ubaldo’s past couple starts given you any reason for optimism about him? The velocity seems better.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Going to be a while before I’m particularly interested

9:31	Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety) If you are NOT a baseball expert….who is?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Dave is a baseball expert. I’m a guy who finds things to write about baseball, sometimes in excruciating detail

9:32	Comment From Dgood What do you think of Edwin Jackson as a buy low candidate? Or is the contract length too much for that?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I don’t think it’s buying low to add a pitcher getting paid $52 million over the next four years. Jackson’s interesting, but he’s not about to be a bargain

9:33	Comment From Life Expert Do you consider yourself a life expert though.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Getting there

9:33	Comment From Trey BJ Upton is hitting an unsustainable amount of IFFB with a lower LD% than his career average. Is this a result of adjusting to NL pitching or will he hit fewer LD because of his approach?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: B.J. Upton has 10 line drives. At his career rate, he’d have 12 line drives. So far he’s hit all of eight infield fly balls. Don’t worry about these things so early. The sample sizes are miniscule.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously Upton is struggling but it’s way too early to say he’s going to hit infield flies all the time now

9:35	Comment From Izzy Why don’t the ZIPS ROS baserunning projections add up?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. I’ll ask in our staff meeting this afternoon! Thank you, Izzy!

9:35	Comment From Prich Your #1 pick in a fantasy breakfast draft?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Fried chicken and sweet potato waffle from the Screen Door here in Portland

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: http://fatkidblog.com/server/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/chickenwaffe1.jpg

9:37	Comment From Larry David What do you make of Reddick? 32HR last year…on pace for 5 this year.

9:38

Jeff Sullivan: In a way this is a continuation of the way Reddick trailed off last year down the stretch. Which isnt’ in any way reassuring, but this isn’t the first we’ve seen of these struggles. I’m somewhat worried, and glad on Oakland’s behalf that when healthy they have outfield depth. I think Reddick will mostly work it out over time, though. He should be okay

9:38	Comment From Guest Are the white sox the most boring non-astros/marlins team in the majors?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Subjectively, they’re in the running. The Twins have an entirely uninteresting pitching staff

9:39	Comment From Well-Beered Englishman I have first pick in a fantasy volcano league. What volcano should I draft?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Olympus Mons

9:39	Comment From Chris where is the article on rates when they stabilize?

9:40

Jeff Sullivan: As much as that article was helpful, it seems to have led people to believe that there’s a magic point at which certain statistics start to make sense. Things don’t work that way. There are better ways of conveying these ideas than pointing out when correlation factors or whatever hit 0.5

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: If it’s May 7, assume that the statistic you’re looking at hasn’t stabilized.

9:41	Comment From Three Fingers Stump Do you expect a major eruption from Mount Cleveland or small minor ones and a nuisance for air travel?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/05/small-explosive-eruption-at-cleveland-in-alaska/

9:42	Comment From Questions (of the Clown Variety) last 6 days: Hanley’s hammy goes pop, Doc’s shoulder goes poof, and Yu Darvish is still absurd

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: And Bryce Harper got ejected for no reason. Thank you for the assistance!

9:42	Comment From @dcholcomb Weird that they didn’t have the internet wherever the wedding was.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t want to be on the internet. It’s important to get off of the internet.

9:42	Comment From Yes Wei Chen Yankees and Red Sox exceeding expectations, Rays and Jays disappointing, and the Orioles quietly looking pretty good: After a month of evidence, how are you thinking the AL East plays out the rest of the way?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Red Sox win it, the Orioles and Yankees battle for second, the Rays hang around as a decent team that isn’t quite a good team, and the Blue Jays spend a lot of time looking in the mirror making faces. The Jays’ hole is just too deep for my likings

9:44	Comment From BostonPat How much would Boston actually suffer from starting David Ross full time? He has some pop, is probably better than Salty defensively, and probably won’t share the same maddeningly low patience and high K%.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s a matter of Boston. I think it’s a matter of whether Ross can handle it, and he’s a 36 year old who hasn’t surpassed 200 plate appearances since 2007

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Ross seems like one of those guys who’s a quality backup who’s over-exposed and over-stretched as a regular

9:46	Comment From Mike While you were gone the Tigers outscored the Astros 37-7

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: That actually did not escape my attention

9:46	Comment From Jaack How many games does a combined Marlins/Astros squad win over the course of a season?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to go with a sad-looking 70

9:48	Comment From Yes Wei Chen Ryan Zimmerman with another very slow start, think he’ll have a resurgence like he did in the second half of ’12?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: If I were betting, I would bet against it. But I am not betting

9:49	Comment From Bound Marte and Harper were about even in WAR last week–Marte is now blowing him away. Is this going to be this year’s Trout/Cabrera MVP decision?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t at all trust Marte to keep this up, so, no, I doubt it. Harper is amazing; Marte could be amazing. There’s probably not going to be another Trout/Cabrera for some time

9:50	Comment From CMR What, if anything, can be done to heal Pujols?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: Seems like regular or extended time off, but the Angels are in an awkward position where they don’t have any depth or much time to sacrifice. If Pujols says he’s played through this before, then fine, you let him mostly handle himself. But if I’m the Angels then I’m extremely uncomfortable

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of like Pujols

9:52	Comment From Bruce Is “changed his approach” the regular equivalent to “best shape of his life” or do some players really change their approach with positive results mid-season?

9:53

Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes it happens. The example that immediately comes to mind for me is Cameron Maybin — he made a swing adjustment early last July that paid immediate dividends. But usually a guy changing his approach and improving is simple regression, with the changed approach being a response to worse-than-usual results

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: There’s more substance to a guy making a change to the way he plays, but a changed approach isn’t automatically interesting

9:54	Comment From Too Many Joes Mike Zunino’s hitting .195. Is he struggling or just preparing to fit in with the Mariners? Because if it’s the latter, he’s ready for a callup!

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Unfinished products! Sometimes they slump!

9:54	Comment From Josh The Mariners got Hisashi Iwakuma for two years with a 2015 option. He can’t keep this up but what a deal that was.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Iwakuma is well on the way toward being quietly fantastic. As long as he’s healthy, he’s got all the ingredients to make a FanGraphs reader love him

9:55	Comment From Zach Oregon is prettier than Cape Cod? Them’s fighting words. If you include the Vineyard with the Cape, that changes things, right? Also: trade Jake Peavy for Chris Davis in a keeper, right?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Oregon is much prettier than Cape Cod. And more literally awesome. We have elevation changes!

9:56	Comment From Ted Is there any sense to the argument that Matt Harvey lives off of high heat, and when his velo slows down he will be more hittable?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: There could be, yes. If a guy’s trick is his fastball, then as his fastball loses oomph, it becomes more hittable and the guy gets worse. But thankfully for Harvey, his fastball isn’t his only trick

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Fastball velocity decreases over the course of a pitcher’s career. So the later into a career a pitcher gets, the more important it is for him to have secondary stuff, it seems to me

9:58

Comment From Brett
How soon will it be before we have an article outlining how frequently people homer in their next PA after getting HBP? I’m thinking it would be an excuse for some awesome gifs of Mark Reynolds smashing a ball into the stratosphere accompanied by his bat flip/stare-down last night.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: This would be a lot of fun! Difficult to code/research, but fun to play with and write up

9:59	Comment From Kyle What do you think of Brett Anderson this year?

9:59	Comment From Kyle Brett Anderson or Josh Johnson ROS