Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/24/18

July 24, 2018

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Tuesday baseball chat

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: This is a temporary arrangement — I’ll be out of town this Friday and next, so I’ve swapped days so as to not miss a chat

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Swapped places with Meg this week, and it looks like the odds are I’ll do the same next week. Then back to normal!

9:05	botchatheny: when you look into poncedeleon what do you see?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Swing-and-miss fastball he’s become increasingly comfortable using up in the zone. Secondary pitches are behind and control isn’t perfect, but when you have a good heater as a primary pitch, you can be successful for several innings at a time

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Not entirely convinced he’s a long-term starter, but he deserves the opportunity

9:08	adam: Does the loss of Suter increase or decrease the Brewers pursuit of a high end starter ala DeGrom?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Increases the odds the Brewers land some kind of starter, but it’s almost impossible for me to imagine the Mets trading deGrom this week with their front-office arrangement

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: You have to be so careful and thorough when trading a player like that. The Mets are in no position to execute that sufficiently well

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: (One might argue that’s been true for years)

9:10	Rockies Dude: What do the Rockies do at the deadline? I’m guessing just a BP arm, maybe a UTIL bench player as well.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I think your instincts are correct. They’re too good to leave things as they are, but they’re not good enough to make a major push. Extremely unlikely to catch the Dodgers, and there’s a lot of wild-card competition. Even the Pirates are back in the mix

9:13	Bo: Very SSS alert, but Ronald Acuna is crushing it batting leadoff. Is there reason to believe he is better fit hitting first than lower in the order?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: July Acuna is basically May Acuna with a way higher BABIP. He’s batted just 17 times at leadoff, almost all over the past three days. Some guys do respond differently to different spots in the order, and it’s not like Acuna is going to hurt the Braves up there, but I think the expectation should always be that it won’t make a difference, until or unless proven otherwise

9:15	Anthony: Would Zach Britton lose trade value if he didn’t pitch for a week or so? With the Orioles buried and moving toward a trade, why play him at all and risk him blowing something out in the interim?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Teams all want to see evidence that Britton is back. Can’t show evidence if he’s not pitching. That would only increase concern

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: This is a time when small samples become important samples, rightly or not. It doesn’t help the Orioles that Britton has issued a walk in each of his last three appearances

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: 15.2 innings, 10 walks, 13 strikeouts. Britton can survive a little wildness, but the Orioles would really love to see him strike out the side or something

9:18	Dave: Which team is more likely to torpedo a deGrom-to-the-Yankees deal: The Mets, and their reluctance to help their crosstown rivals? Or the Yankees, who have picked a weird time to become a team that hoards prospects?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Based on some of the information becoming public, I don’t think the Mets would even so much as entertain the idea of trading deGrom to the Yankees

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Mets more likely to torpedo it from the start; Yankees more likely to torpedo it if it moved forward

9:20	2-D: To ever near a sense of completion on a manager’s rating would you find it essential to see how they operate in the playoffs?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. Most of what you need to do in the playoffs can be taught. It’s not that difficult — lean on your best players. I think you could assume playoff performance based on regular-season performance, as managers go

9:21	Johnny Coconuts: Do the Red Sox have what it takes to acquire someone like Asdrubal Cabrera or Ian Kinsler? And what are the odds it happens?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Neither player would be very expensive. The Red Sox could definitely afford one or the other

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Not at all clear it’s necessary. Might as well just beef up the bullpen even more instead

9:23	Rivervillian: will justin smoak be on the move this season or will toronto extend him into the foreseeable future?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: No market out there for him right now. Plus he has a cheap club option for 2019. He’ll stay put, almost certainly

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners would make some sense, I guess, but they’ll be playing Cano at first down the stretch, and Vogelbach deserves a look if and when they give up on Healy

9:24

Isaac: Jeff, the Mets world is up in arms about DeGrom not receiving enough run support, time and time again, to qualify for a win. Does this really matter? The Mets aren’t competing for anything. Wins shouldn’t be that important for a pitcher’s resume, but does this have anything to do with DeGrom’s future earnings potential?

9:25

Jeff Sullivan: Not really. Everybody understands that deGrom is great. Meaningful negotiations no longer come down to wins and losses. deGrom will get paid what he’s worth, and for now, this is just something to talk about because it’s representative of how frustrating the Mets have become, that they can’t win games where their best starter pitches his ass off

9:27	Tom: Hi Jeff- thanks for the chat. It’s starting to feel more and more like the Cardinals should sell. Who do you see being on the market for them- Norris? Others? Anybody who you can see fetching a decent return?

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think there’s a lot for them to do. They’re still on the periphery of the hunt right now, and they’d project to be in a similar position next year. They could move a reliever or two but it’s already a crowded market so a huge return would be unlikely. Jose Martinez could get dealt, but he also has major limitations. The other Martinez hasn’t done his stock any favors lately

9:29	AKA22: Will the AL second wildcard have the lowest odds to make the world series in MLB playoff history? Either way, should that impact their willingness to spend to win that 5th seed?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. Right now, the Mariners and A’s combine for a 4.5% chance of reaching the World Series

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Last season, at the end, we gave the Twins a 2.9% chance of reaching the World Series

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: That team was similarly screwed. So it will be again. Which, on the plus side, comes with significant Cinderella potential!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are driven by a desperate need to just play a damn playoff game. The A’s won’t overspend for anyone but they already got a good reliever for cheap

9:33	Chipper: Matt Carpenter is now the NL leader in wRC+ and is leading all NL hitters in WAR. On May 1st, Matt Carpenter was hitting .155/.305/.274

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Carpenter in April: .265 wOBA Carpenter since: .457

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Carpenter in April: .404 expected wOBA Carpenter since: .445

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: It’s clear that expected wOBA doesn’t accurately capture every single thing we would like it to. But when you see something like Carpenter’s April, in terms of both of those numbers, the xwOBA really helps to take the edge off. Carpenter was likely always going to be fine

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Regardless of whether he had any salsa

9:35	CamdenWarehouse: I thoroughly enjoyed the Hardball Times moment on last week’s EW. Has Meg had words with you yet?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: She very courteously has not

9:36	adam: Would the Dodgers be willing to include Beuhler in a trade for DeGrom?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine them getting to that point, assuming the Mets ask for Buehler+

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: That’s one of those additions and subtractions. Hate those

9:37	Bo: Latest reports are that the Braves are looking for controllable talent… But is there really anyone who fits the bill that’s available at the deadline?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Not very much. This deadline sucks. But they could target, say, Adam Conley! I think I might write about him after the chat. He looks pretty good

9:38	Tyler: This year Jake Ordorizzi is ranked first among A.L. pitcher in Def. He also ranks 101st overall in M.L. for pitcher Def. There is no way that the N.L. has the 100 best Def pitchers in baseball is there?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Def for pitchers is a function of playing time as a hitter. AL pitchers, obviously, seldom get to hit

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: You’d be better off looking at pitcher DRS, if you just want to know about defensive performance instead of positional adjustment for offensive WAR

9:41	Anthony: Any reason to believe that Archer’s run prevention won’t positively regress? I keep waiting for his ERA to match his FIP, but it’s not happening.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Archer has a pretty long history of allowing slightly harder contact than average

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: It might come from the fact that he’s so good at getting whiffs out of the zone that a lot of the contact he allows is in the zone

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Still, this is a guy whose career ERA- is only five points worse than his FIP-. And he’s been pitching in the AL East, where he’s had to face tougher opposing lineups than most everyone else for a while

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Archer might be a true-talent .310 BABIP guy or something. But I still like him a lot as a No. 2 who can look like a No. 1

9:46

Warren: As a padres fan, there’s obviously lots of exciting young talent on the farm, but with the Hosmer contract appearing worse by the day and Hedges/Margot not taking any promising steps forward, is there anyone on the current roster who will be part of the Next Good Padres Team? Should that be concerning?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Lucchesi is pretty talented

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: And Hosmer will be there, whether he deserves to be or not!

9:47	Kev: Jeff, thanks for making our Tuesdays much better. We appreciate all the time and effort into answering all of our questions!

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes the effort is minimal!

9:47	Billy Beane: Jeff, if you are chatting today does that mean I don’t have to work tomorrow?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see why it wouldn’t

9:48	Curtis: Why are the A’s so successful this season?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Deep lineup, improved defense, dominant back of the bullpen

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Matt Chapman is becoming a legitimate star, and Blake Treinen is everything he was always supposed to be

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: By record, the A’s are somewhat overachieving, but relative to the Mariners it’s nothing

9:50	Brett: What would an A’s trade with the Royals look like for Duffy?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard for me to see the Royals going there now, with Duffy’s stock low. Very difficult for the Royals and A’s to agree on what, exactly, Duffy is right now

9:53	Mac Gwire: Every Britton stat seems like it’s going in the wrong direction, but all the smart teams want him. What do they know that we don’t?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: What they’re offering

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: Britton is still getting whiffs, and he’s still throwing hard. It’s obvious the sinker is still in there somewhere. But it’s one thing to find a pitcher interesting and it’s quite another to get him in exchange for a couple quality prospects. I doubt the Orioles are looking at a blockbuster here

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: It’s always weird to answer these questions during a chat when I don’t know if a trade has happened without me noticing

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: So far, nope!

9:56	CrashedDavis: 1) Getting chats with only a 1 work day gap is amazing, though we miss Meg and 2) i’ve seen Trumbo to Seattle rumors. is there any reason the Mariners want to do this? and do the Os get a return? and how much do they have to pay down?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners already have Mark Trumbo. His name is Ryon Healy

9:57	Trev: Fill in the blank: _______number of PA’s Dan Vogelbach gets with the 2018 Mariners, _______ number of PA’s Dan Vogelbach gets with the 2019 Mariners

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with 150 and 0

9:58	adam: Is Cueto still broken. so many homers

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Cueto definitely doesn’t seem right

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: His injury already made me nervous and I’m afraid we haven’t seen the last of it