Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/15/16

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that delay, had an actual work phone call!

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I got to say words out loud! In the morning!

9:12
somedude: How much value will Tyson Ross hold when he comes off the DL?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Very very little

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: First of all, he’s still not particularly close. And then other teams need to see him pitching effectively. That’s impossible for him to do before this year’s deadline

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: With a hot finish, provided he gets back, he can be an offseason move, but I see this one stretching to next July when Ross can be offered as a rental No. 2

9:14
Mike: Better player in five years, Swanson or Albies?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take Albies

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Good thing they have them both!

9:15
Section 118: How much does the Pomeranz trade inform us about the haul Rich Hill will bring back for Oakland?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it sheds that much light — pretty different circumstances. And Boston might’ve paid the most for Hill, and now they’re effectively out of the picture. But Hill is going to cost a pretty good prospect or two, even though how much he has left this season is an open question

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: This is the big issue with Hill and Pomeranz, both — they’re obviously effective starters, but they’re getting into high-innings territory without throwing many innings last year or the year before. So it’s hard to see how much they could help in the playoffs

9:16
A-A-Ron: Hey Jeff – It was announced that Dylan Bundy is getting the start for the Orioles @ Tampa this Sunday. Do you think the O’s give him a shot in the rotation for the second half or is this just a spot to see how things go?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: It starts as a spot. If he shows promise, there’ll be more opportunities. They have to be careful with him, on account of his workload and whatnot, but the Orioles are not in position to turn down giving more innings to an electric arm in the rotation

9:17
JTT: Jeff, nobody saw Pomeranz breakout coming but this does not look good for Beane. Identifying these types of players is what he has built his entire career around. 2014-2016 have not been banner years for him. Also, what the hell is Carson saying at the beginning of all his podcasts? It sounds like “Spittoon made of brass this is carson cistulli”

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: “That’s Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass…”

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: You’re right, obviously, about the A’s. Even in the best evaluation, Yonder Alonso wasn’t an exciting acquisition. Not a lot of upside there. The A’s went for perceived safety and gave away Pomeranz’s ceiling. Now, to them, Pomeranz was a reliever. To a lot of teams, he was a reliever. And there was talk he was going to be non-tendered. But if there’s a lesson in there, it’s that you should prefer the certainty of *good* hitters, but you shouldn’t bother with the certainty of mediocre ones

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: As Mets vs. Cubs conversations demonstrate, you prefer to have good young bats over good young arms. But if you have a boring bat and an arm with upside, maybe don’t sell that upside

9:22
JR: Hello, friend. Today I just learned Michael Fulmer and Carson Fulmer are not, in fact, the same person. What a country!

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Who’s ready for another live-armed White Sox pitching prospect who doesn’t throw enough strikes?

9:24
Frankie Fast Hands: What are the chances Dbacks keep Shelby Miller down long enough to get an extra year of control?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see if we can walk through this one

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Miller has already pitched in the minors this year, but that was a rehab assignment, so that still counts as big-league service

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Coming into the year, he had three years and 30 days of service. A service year is, what, 172 days? So Miller would need to finish this year short of 142

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: That works out to something like a month and a half in the minors. That would be pushing it, I think. If Miller *really* struggles down there, then maybe. But he was good in the minors in his rehab. I think he’s back in a few weeks

9:29
Dude: Thoughts on Hosmer & Boras “asking” for $200M. It may have just been typical agent talk, but what do you see Hosmer getting once he hits the market?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Working to Hosmer’s advantage is that he’ll hit the market going into his age-28 season. So there’ll be some prime left. But he’s not a superstar player, and the market might have learned a little something about big commitments to first basemen. Brandon Belt just had his FA years valued at $16 million or so, a couple years out. Does Hosmer really deserve more?

9:32
A-A-Ron: Are you buying a second-half rebound from Sonny Gray? He looks healthy finally, but God those numbers…

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: He’s been better since coming off the DL, and I don’t think he’s broken, so he should pitch pretty well. But I don’t think he’s going to get traded in the next two weeks. I don’t think he can answer the lingering questions that fast

9:32
ken: will aroldis chapman ever start?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:34
mtsw: Dylan Bundy is starting on Sunday. Have the Orioles found a new and exciting way to convert a valuable future asset into a mediocre present one?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Gotta see if he can start sometime. Might as well do it when your pitching sucks and you’re in first place

9:34
Mike: With the Red Sox being out, do the Braves actually hold on to Teheran? The Red Sox were the best match, right?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: The Red Sox were the best match, but not the only match. Teheran’s cost-controlled nature really helps him out here. I can’t imagine the Braves hold on to him unless they’re being silly

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: When Pomeranz got traded yesterday I was in the process of writing a post about how the Braves shouldn’t keep Teheran. I had to stop that and pivot, but maybe I’ll get back to it Monday

9:35
Josh: Any major disagreements with Dave on trade value?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Dave opened up his list to FanGraphs feedback before anything was published so we all got to weigh in before the list went up. So the big disagreements were hammered out

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: And I think it’s important to note that Dave talks to a lot of people actually in the game. That’s what the list is really about. I can have my own opinions on various players, but I’m not in position to make a trade, so my perception is functionally irrelevant

9:39
JV: How concerned are you about Brett Phillips rising K rate? Do you see him as a solid regular for the Crew?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: It’s legitimately troubling. Prospects like this can’t afford to run strikeout rates around 30%. That’s way too high unless you’re Joey Gallo

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: But for one thing, Phillips just turned 22, so there’s a lot of time for him

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: And a big part of the increase has been an uptick in called strikeouts, as opposed to swinging strikeouts. Phillips has also been walking more, so this might just be an early symptom of the Brewers trying to give him a more disciplined approach

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Revisit in a year. Still a hell of a talent

9:41
A-A-Ron: Has Jake Arrieta become allergic to the 6th inning?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, the sixth inning is arguably the most boring inning

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s the fifth inning. One of those two. That’s when you want to take a quick little catnap

9:42
Mike: Would you rather have an MLB or NHL team relocate/expand to Portland?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: NHL. An MLB team might cut into the Mariners’ market and I want only the best for them

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: And hockey is better live

9:43
Seth: does the price set for pomeranz change the trade market for pitching? are guys like desclafani or odorizzi now more available for bigger prices?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Those guys aren’t doing what Pomeranz was doing

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Pomeranz was going to cost something like this. I don’t think what happened yesterday was too surprising

9:45
Joe W: Why do you think there isn’t much talk concerning Jesse Chavez replacing Aaron Sanchez in the rotation instead of Drew Hutchison. Wouldn’t that seem to be the smarter move?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Hutchison is more exciting, and has more of a future with Toronto. Chavez isn’t stretched out

9:45
Chris: Everyone is going to ask it, but what is your opinion of the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal? And how does it impact the trade market for starters?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Well, I wrote it up yesterday, and I wasn’t telling any lies. I believe in Pomeranz, although I’m uncertain how well he’s going to finish in this particular season

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Espinoza is obviously a great prospect but, personally, I get pretty skeptical of low-level pitchers with a long way to go. There’s a lot that can go wrong. Odds are probably against Espinoza ever being as good as Pomeranz is today

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: If you believe in Espinoza more, you like the trade more for San Diego. That’s just how it is. And they did well here. But I’m a low-level prospect skeptic

9:48
Gest: Which outfielder do you think will have the better second half: Puig or justin upton?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Upton offensively, Puig in terms of WAR

9:51
Steve: How different are Zack Cozart and Tulowitzki ROS? Are you buying Cozart’s power surge?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I buy that Cozart is fundamentally better than he used to be. He’s hitting most of his homers in hitter-friendly environments, so in isolation I like Tulowitzki as the better player

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: But it’s not like Cozart is about to leave those environments. So his power can play up, even though he’s not a powerful hitter

9:52
Houzer : better shot at a second half turnaround to there norm … sonny gray or nola?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: I like them both

9:52
Grant: Of the NL SP vets with a great 1st half (kershaw, cueto, bumgarner, arrieta, stras), who’s most likely to fall off pace?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Hasn’t Arrieta already?

9:54
Burts_beads: What do you think of Correa’s projections as seen in the Trade Value series? They seem kind of insane, not really what I was expecting.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Projections put a LOT of weight on a player’s age, and Correa still isn’t even 22. So that mostly explains that. The projections seem to figure Correa is going to go all Manny Machado before long

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like he’s really missing much, perhaps aside from elite SS defense. I’d bet the under on the projections but I still think he’ll be a star and a top-5 asset

9:56
Erik: If I told you a team was 6 games out of both wild card spots and had its top three prospects looking ready to help out at the MLB level, you wouldn’t call them crazy to think about buying at the deadline, would you? What if I told you that team was the Phillies?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies would be crazy to buy at the deadline

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies suck. Things are looking up! But they still suck.

9:57
Mike: Whose record is more likely to be broken: DiMaggio’s hit streak or Williams’s .406 season?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Williams

9:57
James: In this market will Rich Hill net more than Drew Pomeranz? Should he?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Heavens no

9:57
SS: Most underrated superstar in the league? Most overrated player?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Lindor, perhaps, and then…I don’t know, is Jay Bruce overrated? Does anyone care?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Carlos Gonzalez feels a little overrated-y

9:59
Seth: least likely to be traded: lucroy, bruce, reddick–or are they all packing bags?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: I guess Lucroy might be the least likely, but I’d still say he’s likely

10:00
Reginald Denton III: The Ranger have a poor run differential, given their record. They’ve had some very lopsided losses. Couldn’t I make the argument that they’ve managed games differently when they’ve gotten down (in order to rest their better bullpen arms), and those big losses really aren’t an accurate reflection of their team?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: The biggest driver in the Rangers’ success has been clutch hitting. I don’t think that has anything to do with bullpen management

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Every team loses blowouts and every team manages blowouts differently. It would be hard to convince me that the Rangers are somehow something historically special

10:05
Jack: Does it make sense for the Phillies to hold on to Hellickson and give him a QO? They either end up with a comp pick or a year of an average-ish pitcher. Has to be better than what they would get in a trade, no?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Well that depends entirely on the market. I don’t know what teams would be offering for Hellickson. That would also provide insight into what his FA market would look like in a few months. As a rule of thumb, I don’t think you want to get too protective of a Hellickson type

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Hellickson against good teams: 4.70 ERA
Hellickson against worse teams: 2.03 ERA

10:07
Reginald Denton III: Will the Yankees wait a week or two before making any trades just to see where they’re sitting and if they have a realistic shot at the WC?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: That’s my guess. Their players aren’t going to get less valuable within a week or two

10:07
Maxamuz: Tell me good things about Julio Teheran

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: His slider is better and he’s more effective against lefties

10:09
Erik: I was arguing with a friend about where Koufax ranks in the best pitcher of all time conversation. I said he’d be fighting for a spot in the back of the top ten, due to his complete lack of longevity, but he said he’d be in contention for the top spot, due to his dominant peak. I know it’s ultimately subjective and pointless, but could you agree with me so I can screenshot your response and send it to him? (Or give an honest opinion, I guess.)

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Depends entirely on the question. By best career, no, Koufax isn’t in contention for the top spot. But if you’re just arguing the pitcher who’s at some point been the most talented? Then, sure.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Like, if the question is which peak pitcher do you want starting Game 7, I can see Koufax. The right answer is still Pedro Martinez, but

10:11
Mike: Hill for Dietrich, who says no

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Ooh, good question. Dietrich is a total Oakland type

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Marlins say no because they could use Dietrich next season

10:12
Mike: Does someone give up a Shelby Miller-type package for Gray? Or is Miller himself enough of a dissuasion now?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone in the industry already hated that trade

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: But Gray himself has turned away enough suitors

10:14
2-D: At the beginning of the year you compared Cody Anderson to Matt Harvey. So who starts to resemble pre-2016 Matt Harvey first, Harvey or Anderson?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Harvey gets the inside track on account of being Matt Harvey, but his surgery is a big deal. Really don’t know how well he’ll come back from that

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: And in fairness, Anderson got a lot better by K-BB%! And his velocity was up. But he has an issue with secondary pitches…

10:15
Ronnie: Is Kal Daniels the most unknown great hitter of recent vintage? His 140 career wRC+ is tied with the likes of Mike Piazza, Larry Walker, Josh Donaldson, Jason Giambi, Buster Posey & David Ortiz for the 30th best of the last 30 years.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: One point in support: I’ve never heard of him before

10:16
J: Looking at his career numbers, is Giancarlo the perfect example of a 50 hit 80 power guy? Even his walk rate seems to be more from zone% and fewer first pitch strikes than O-swing. Is it fair to say his power alone was worth so much it allowed him to have a 142 career wRC+?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like a fair assessment. No one in the majors has Stanton’s power. No one, not with that consistency. And that covers up almost all his other flaws

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: It also means his decline could be ugly. And he’d be particularly ravaged by a bad hip or oblique. But for now, good god, he’s something else

10:18
NYTT: Do you think the Braves might get better value for Vizcaino in the offseason? It’d be risky, but if he can hold up over a full season and gets back to his early season form his value would be higher I’d assume.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: If Vizcaino strings together a few dominant outings, you move him now. If he keeps struggling to throw strikes, then you wait

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: His stuff still looks good, though, so suitors shouldn’t need much convincing

10:19
J: Sustainably by how much would you say the limit is for over/under performing FIP? Estrada is really reaching a new level to me it seems.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Chris Young for his career has a gap of 72 points. That’s about as much as I’d bank on. Now, Estrada has the additional benefit of Kevin Pillar

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: And also, Young has had a way bigger stolen-base issue. So maybe the max would be around 80 or 90 points

10:22
Paul : Disappointed to see MLB not coming to London next year. Would it not have made more sense to go to Italy or Netherlands where baseball has more presence than in the UK? I’m not sure Wembley, or any soccer ground, has the right dimensions. The only place I can think of is the Oval cricket ground but the capacity is far too small.

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a significant MLB presence in Europe in the next few years. Italy, Germany, Netherlands, so on. It’s a Manfred priority

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: If they can play big-league baseball in Australia, they can play big-league baseball in a lot of places

10:23
Erik: Does the Pomeranz trade “set the market” in any meaningful way? Will teams justify their demands based on how good the pitcher they’re selling is compared to Pomeranz? Or is the only affect of this trade on other trades the fact that one more pitcher is now off the market?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: I think the market was already unofficially set. This is the sort of trade that was just going to happen. Everyone knew Boston would get an arm, and everyone basically knew it would take Espinoza or Devers

10:25
Jay: Nomar Mazara has to be the leading AL ROY contender, right?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Keep your eye on Michael Fulmer and Tyler Naquin. Mazara is still in the lead but he’s gotten worse with every passing month

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Hasn’t been good since, what, May?

10:26
person: So, of the 50 most highly valued assets in baseball, plus the honorable mentions, there’s not a Mariner even close. What a bummer.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: With big second halves, Walker and Paxton could make their cases. But this has been a known issue. Dipoto inherited a team without a long-term young core

10:27
kris: Who now makes the most sense for Teheran? Rangers? Could do a Teheran+Viz deal to them, as well

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Rangers are probably the answer

10:28
person: Star Trek or Star Wars?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t care about either

10:28
Buddy Holly Ben Hur Space Monkey: TB Staff 2016 (ERA-/FIP-) –>> Archer(113/101); Smyly(132/106); Odorizzi(108/104); Moore(108/109)

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Remember when the Rays were known for their defense? Now it’s basically all about Kiermaier, and Kiermaier’s been hurt

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: in Kiermaier’s last game, the Rays were 20-20. Since then, they’ve been the worst team in baseball

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Running some quick BABIP calculations…

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Rays pre-Kiermaier injury: .266

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Rays post-Kiermaier injury: .343

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Very obviously, it hasn’t been all Kiermaier. That would be insane. But talk about a difference-maker. The Mariners had a similar slump when they lost Leonys Martin

10:33
Buddy Holly Ben Hur Space Monkey: Thoughts on the Rays? What happened to their rotation this year? Where are they as an organization? Will they be sellers at the deadline?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to sell. They have a starter or two to move. Odorizzi or Moore could fetch something decent. I think the Rays still have the capacity to be a decent contender in 2017 but they need to be healthier

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I think their margin of error over time is diminishing. They’d probably agree with the assessment. They need a catcher

10:34
Kevin: How surprised were you by the return for Pomeranz? What kind of return were you expecting?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Not to repeat myself but I basically expected something a lot like this

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Now, in the bigger picture, to go from Alonso/Rzepczynski to Espinoza in a few months — that’s beautiful

10:35
egon: i was doing research and figured out that mike trout is a good player.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Come work for FanGraphs!

10:35
_David_: What would you estimate Brad Miller’s true talent defensive ability is?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: -10 as a shortstop

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Shortstops gotta be able to throw

10:36
Matt: Will we actually see the Yankees seel this season? Maybe just not buy?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I think they ultimately sell one reliever

10:36
mike: does the pom trade increase teherans value?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: nah

10:36
Kelly: Crazy to think Dylan Bundy will just keep pitching if they have no other chance to win?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: As long as Bundy looks good, Bundy will pitch

10:37
Junior: Would you rather have 1 elite prospect or 2-3 middle tier prospects in a trade like the Padres and Sox?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I’d generally take quantity over one really good low-level pitching prospect

10:38
person: Odds that the Mariners make it to 20 years without a playoff appearance?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: 15%?

10:39
Kyle: Hey, Jeff! Do you get the sense that the Mets have a systemic issue dealing with young arms, or is the daunting wave of health problems with their potential aces something that is more heavily linked to poor practices in youth baseball and abuse at the college level?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: It would be one thing if the Mets were the only team dealing with fragile young pitchers. But, obviously, this is a bigger issue, and I don’t think we have enough evidence to come down on the Mets by themselves

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Last year, the Mets were extremely fortunate. This year is the opposite. Risk/reward of how they’re built

10:41
mike sixel: Mount Hamilton was great! Plenty of views last week. Over under on Twins making 1.5 trades this deadline?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll make a couple moves, but you might not actually notice them

10:41
bpqa: What’s the Mike Trout of volcanoes?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Etna? Well known, frequently active, huge, beautiful, powerful, pretty much never endangers those in surrounding communities

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: It’s the perfect volcano

10:42
J: Odds Myers is moved?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Low

10:42
Mike: Keith Law said Mike Foltynewicz has ace upside if he can keep the home runs down, do you see it?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t want to mess around with labels I don’t understand but I do have an opportunity now to point something out:

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Foltynewicz is currently one of the league leaders in rate of pitches thrown when ahead in the count. Great sign!

10:44
Guesto: Shelby Miller’s failures and demotion to AAA is a reminder that being a Diamondbacks fan in this day and age is supporting eternal nothingness.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Paul Goldschmidt!

10:44
Guest: How much time does the average MLB trade take to make do you think? Like from the time a player is first discussed with a team until the time the paperwork is filed. A week?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: The “average” trade is pretty low-profile. Those can go quickly. The higher-profile deadline moves take longer, because of the build-up. Lots of teams circling back to previous conversations

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say a matter of days

10:46
FireDrayton: Why isn’t Bregman in the bigs yet? At this point it just feels like Luhnow & co are just being stubborn/hard-headed.

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Valbuena has been hitting, Reed hasn’t had much of a chance yet, and Bregman just got to Triple-A

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: That all being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up within two weeks

10:47
Rob: Think the Rangers hold on in the West?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, but only by a very narrow margin

10:48
JTT: Hill is 36, I assume whichever team trades for him is just going to run him into the ground and let somebody else worry about it next season

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Hill last year started a total of I think 11 games. He’s sort of already being run into the ground

10:49
Albert: Did you see 25-yr old Tyler Skaggs line yesterday in AAA? 7-IP, 1-H, 0-BB, 0-R, 14-K…woof!

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: At long last, some good news for the Angels

10:49
Stuafoo: To what extent are teams’ records in one run games predictable? Can they be tied to bullpen performance etc?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: It’s almost all noise. It’s not worth trying to think about sustainable exceptions

10:50
Jim Lonborg: Now that Espinoza is gone (ave atque vale), your thoughts on Kopech, both in terms of value this offseason and future potential if he stays?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: I’m definitely not a prospect expert, but by the offseason Kopech could easily be right around where Espinoza was

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Now, Kopech is of course two years older, but he won’t have the same questions about his long-term frame

10:51
Scott Spiezio: Why is there a thumbs-up/thumbs-down system in the comment section? If people disagree with a post, let them construct and type out an argument. I keep seeing certain people get relentlessly downvoted just because they might have made a single questionable/confrontational comment a while ago.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: We’ve talked about implementing a system where the ratings only show up beyond a certain threshold, like maybe 5 votes. I think that would be better

10:52
Luke: Any chance the Red Sox bring up Yoan Moncada in October like they did with Bogaerts in ’13?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: nah

10:52
_David_: If Ianetta really is below replacement when considering framing, should they start giving Zunino the majority of starts?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: That’ll be a conversation in the coming months, but they’ve tried really hard not to mess with Zunino’s long-term outlook

10:53
happs on the craps: Hi Jeff. Curious what you make of ‘pitch tipping’ as excuse. Thinking about e-rod in specific. Thanks!

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: I definitely believe it happens. I know teams look out for it. But it’s a difficult thing to investigate from here, because we don’t know what to look for and we get just the one camera angle

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: If someone is able to demonstrate a specific way in which a pitch is being tipped, I buy it. I definitely buy it. But it’s also used as an excuse to try to make a struggling pitcher feel better

10:54
Immanuel Kamment: What’s it going to take to get framing into WAR? What can I do to help?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: It’s super complicated. If you start giving credit to catchers, you have to take credit away from pitchers

10:56
Nick: Which prospects would the Dodgers have to trade to acquire Rich Hill?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Guessing here but the A’s might be happy with Austin Barnes or Trayce Thompson

10:58
Paul: Now that Pomeranz netted a top 20 prospect in All of Baseball, what should Atlanta be demanding in return for Teheran? Thanks Jeff!

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe you center something around Lewis Brinson

10:59
Timohthy: Thoughts on Brandon McCarthy’s first couple starts? What can we expect from him moving forward?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: There’ll be fits and starts, as is typical for players just back, but his stuff looks the same, which is great. Lots of curveballs

10:59
E: Of the teams currently leading their division, who among them will miss the playoffs?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Easiest answer by far is the Orioles

11:00
Elias Persi: just saying anyone not named “billy beane” who trades Donaldson, Pomeranz, Russell, Moss, etc. in the span of two seasons would be on the hot seat if not fired outright

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t forget signing Billy Butler!

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: But it hasn’t been all bad. Like, say, the Kazmir trade, or the other Samardzija trade, or the Zobrist trade

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Pomeranz is a shock. Moss was worthless last season. Russell has a lower WAR than Marcus Semien

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: But that Donaldson one is hard to excuse

11:03
Matt Damon: Will the Mariners see their luck turn around in the second half?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: some

11:03
Minty: The consensus seems to be that in the offseason Correa should switch to 3B. If they don’t do that, how much of a negative effect would there even be?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: nothing anyone would notice

11:05
Erik: From the Trade Value series today: “I’m not sure the Dodgers trade Seager for anyone else in baseball in a straight-up swap right now, not even the guy across town [Trout].” Do you agree with that? Would the Angels win a Seager-Trout trade?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Trout has another 4.5 years of control. Seager has 5.5. Trout’s going to cost about $130 million. Seager’s going to cost, what, $40 million? $50 million?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Because of the Dodgers’ resources I think they’d probably still go for Trout, but if they were any other team, then Seager might indeed be preferable

11:08
Theo!: My 4 year old doesn’t like baseball. What should I do?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t want to take parenting advice from other actual parents. And I’ll never be a parent

11:08
Theo!: Should Ubaldo throw more Eephus pitches?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: everyone should

11:09
Bill: What position and on what team is Jurickson Profar playing next year?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: I could’ve seen him in San Diego, before Pomeranz went elsewhere

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he’d hold appeal to Atlanta as a third baseman?

11:10
Donald: Do the Braves really need to pursue a Lucroy deal since they have no catcher prospects within 3 years of the big leagues?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: They’d have Lucroy through 2017. They’re going to suck in 2017. Doesn’t make sense

11:11
Preller: Does Melvin Upton have any trade value?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Padres would still need to cover a few million, but he is movable

11:11
_David_: Is there hope for Ketel Marte?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: 1 to 2 WAR shortstop

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: mostly 1

11:12
Michael: Do you think the Jays can win the AL East with their current pitching staff? If not, who should they reasonably target?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: I do, because they absolutely slaughter the baseball. But they could still use a modest pitching upgrade

11:12
Sonny: Tyler Naquin ROS? True asset or SSS mirage?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Decent player who’s way over his head

11:12
AJ: If the Red Sox really want to win, Price, Porcello and Pomeranz aren’t scaring anyone. Why stop here? Go get J-Fern.

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: You realize the Marlins are in the playoff picture?

11:13
Jones: Re: the Mariners farm system. There seems to be a fair amount of improvement from a couple guys who lost a lot of their shine last year like Peterson, Jackson and Zunino. How long does it take for a farm system to climb in terms of reputation/trade value? If the better results from minor league guys can sustain until the end of the season does it propel the farm system up the standings going into next season or does it take just more draft picks/quantity to jump from say #20 to #17 in some expert’s ranking?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: I think this was always the hope — that they could implement a better system such that some formerly high-profile talent would be salvageable. Long way to go but things are looking much better

11:13
some guy: Red Sox pretty much have to call up Benintendi this month, right?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, they don’t have to, but they probably will

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get out of here

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week I think, although not on Friday, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/15/16 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Fun Friday Fact of the Week:

Tyler Chatwood’s 3.63 career ERA as a Rockies starter is the best in franchise history (minimum 50 starts for Colorado):

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=250&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=19&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a