Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/15/16

July 15, 2016

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that delay, had an actual work phone call!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I got to say words out loud! In the morning!

9:12	somedude: How much value will Tyson Ross hold when he comes off the DL?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Very very little

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: First of all, he’s still not particularly close. And then other teams need to see him pitching effectively. That’s impossible for him to do before this year’s deadline

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: With a hot finish, provided he gets back, he can be an offseason move, but I see this one stretching to next July when Ross can be offered as a rental No. 2

9:14	Mike: Better player in five years, Swanson or Albies?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll take Albies

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Good thing they have them both!

9:15	Section 118: How much does the Pomeranz trade inform us about the haul Rich Hill will bring back for Oakland?

9:15

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it sheds that much light — pretty different circumstances. And Boston might’ve paid the most for Hill, and now they’re effectively out of the picture. But Hill is going to cost a pretty good prospect or two, even though how much he has left this season is an open question

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: This is the big issue with Hill and Pomeranz, both — they’re obviously effective starters, but they’re getting into high-innings territory without throwing many innings last year or the year before. So it’s hard to see how much they could help in the playoffs

9:16	A-A-Ron: Hey Jeff – It was announced that Dylan Bundy is getting the start for the Orioles @ Tampa this Sunday. Do you think the O’s give him a shot in the rotation for the second half or is this just a spot to see how things go?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: It starts as a spot. If he shows promise, there’ll be more opportunities. They have to be careful with him, on account of his workload and whatnot, but the Orioles are not in position to turn down giving more innings to an electric arm in the rotation

9:17

JTT: Jeff, nobody saw Pomeranz breakout coming but this does not look good for Beane. Identifying these types of players is what he has built his entire career around. 2014-2016 have not been banner years for him. Also, what the hell is Carson saying at the beginning of all his podcasts? It sounds like “Spittoon made of brass this is carson cistulli”

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: “That’s Herb Alpert and the Tijuana Brass…”

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: You’re right, obviously, about the A’s. Even in the best evaluation, Yonder Alonso wasn’t an exciting acquisition. Not a lot of upside there. The A’s went for perceived safety and gave away Pomeranz’s ceiling. Now, to them, Pomeranz was a reliever. To a lot of teams, he was a reliever. And there was talk he was going to be non-tendered. But if there’s a lesson in there, it’s that you should prefer the certainty of *good* hitters, but you shouldn’t bother with the certainty of mediocre ones

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: As Mets vs. Cubs conversations demonstrate, you prefer to have good young bats over good young arms. But if you have a boring bat and an arm with upside, maybe don’t sell that upside

9:22	JR: Hello, friend. Today I just learned Michael Fulmer and Carson Fulmer are not, in fact, the same person. What a country!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Who’s ready for another live-armed White Sox pitching prospect who doesn’t throw enough strikes?

9:24	Frankie Fast Hands: What are the chances Dbacks keep Shelby Miller down long enough to get an extra year of control?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see if we can walk through this one

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Miller has already pitched in the minors this year, but that was a rehab assignment, so that still counts as big-league service

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Coming into the year, he had three years and 30 days of service. A service year is, what, 172 days? So Miller would need to finish this year short of 142

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: That works out to something like a month and a half in the minors. That would be pushing it, I think. If Miller really struggles down there, then maybe. But he was good in the minors in his rehab. I think he’s back in a few weeks

9:29	Dude: Thoughts on Hosmer & Boras “asking” for $200M. It may have just been typical agent talk, but what do you see Hosmer getting once he hits the market?

9:30

Jeff Sullivan: Working to Hosmer’s advantage is that he’ll hit the market going into his age-28 season. So there’ll be some prime left. But he’s not a superstar player, and the market might have learned a little something about big commitments to first basemen. Brandon Belt just had his FA years valued at $16 million or so, a couple years out. Does Hosmer really deserve more?

9:32	A-A-Ron: Are you buying a second-half rebound from Sonny Gray? He looks healthy finally, but God those numbers…

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: He’s been better since coming off the DL, and I don’t think he’s broken, so he should pitch pretty well. But I don’t think he’s going to get traded in the next two weeks. I don’t think he can answer the lingering questions that fast

9:32	ken: will aroldis chapman ever start?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:34	mtsw: Dylan Bundy is starting on Sunday. Have the Orioles found a new and exciting way to convert a valuable future asset into a mediocre present one?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Gotta see if he can start sometime. Might as well do it when your pitching sucks and you’re in first place

9:34	Mike: With the Red Sox being out, do the Braves actually hold on to Teheran? The Red Sox were the best match, right?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: The Red Sox were the best match, but not the only match. Teheran’s cost-controlled nature really helps him out here. I can’t imagine the Braves hold on to him unless they’re being silly

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: When Pomeranz got traded yesterday I was in the process of writing a post about how the Braves shouldn’t keep Teheran. I had to stop that and pivot, but maybe I’ll get back to it Monday

9:35	Josh: Any major disagreements with Dave on trade value?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Dave opened up his list to FanGraphs feedback before anything was published so we all got to weigh in before the list went up. So the big disagreements were hammered out

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: And I think it’s important to note that Dave talks to a lot of people actually in the game. That’s what the list is really about. I can have my own opinions on various players, but I’m not in position to make a trade, so my perception is functionally irrelevant

9:39	JV: How concerned are you about Brett Phillips rising K rate? Do you see him as a solid regular for the Crew?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: It’s legitimately troubling. Prospects like this can’t afford to run strikeout rates around 30%. That’s way too high unless you’re Joey Gallo

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: But for one thing, Phillips just turned 22, so there’s a lot of time for him

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: And a big part of the increase has been an uptick in called strikeouts, as opposed to swinging strikeouts. Phillips has also been walking more, so this might just be an early symptom of the Brewers trying to give him a more disciplined approach

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Revisit in a year. Still a hell of a talent

9:41	A-A-Ron: Has Jake Arrieta become allergic to the 6th inning?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, the sixth inning is arguably the most boring inning

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that’s the fifth inning. One of those two. That’s when you want to take a quick little catnap

9:42	Mike: Would you rather have an MLB or NHL team relocate/expand to Portland?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: NHL. An MLB team might cut into the Mariners’ market and I want only the best for them

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: And hockey is better live

9:43	Seth: does the price set for pomeranz change the trade market for pitching? are guys like desclafani or odorizzi now more available for bigger prices?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Those guys aren’t doing what Pomeranz was doing

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Pomeranz was going to cost something like this. I don’t think what happened yesterday was too surprising

9:45	Joe W: Why do you think there isn’t much talk concerning Jesse Chavez replacing Aaron Sanchez in the rotation instead of Drew Hutchison. Wouldn’t that seem to be the smarter move?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Hutchison is more exciting, and has more of a future with Toronto. Chavez isn’t stretched out

9:45	Chris: Everyone is going to ask it, but what is your opinion of the Pomeranz/Espinoza deal? And how does it impact the trade market for starters?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I wrote it up yesterday, and I wasn’t telling any lies. I believe in Pomeranz, although I’m uncertain how well he’s going to finish in this particular season

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Espinoza is obviously a great prospect but, personally, I get pretty skeptical of low-level pitchers with a long way to go. There’s a lot that can go wrong. Odds are probably against Espinoza ever being as good as Pomeranz is today

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: If you believe in Espinoza more, you like the trade more for San Diego. That’s just how it is. And they did well here. But I’m a low-level prospect skeptic

9:48	Gest: Which outfielder do you think will have the better second half: Puig or justin upton?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Upton offensively, Puig in terms of WAR

9:51	Steve: How different are Zack Cozart and Tulowitzki ROS? Are you buying Cozart’s power surge?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I buy that Cozart is fundamentally better than he used to be. He’s hitting most of his homers in hitter-friendly environments, so in isolation I like Tulowitzki as the better player

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: But it’s not like Cozart is about to leave those environments. So his power can play up, even though he’s not a powerful hitter

9:52	Houzer : better shot at a second half turnaround to there norm … sonny gray or nola?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I like them both

9:52	Grant: Of the NL SP vets with a great 1st half (kershaw, cueto, bumgarner, arrieta, stras), who’s most likely to fall off pace?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Hasn’t Arrieta already?

9:54	Burts_beads: What do you think of Correa’s projections as seen in the Trade Value series? They seem kind of insane, not really what I was expecting.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Projections put a LOT of weight on a player’s age, and Correa still isn’t even 22. So that mostly explains that. The projections seem to figure Correa is going to go all Manny Machado before long

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like he’s really missing much, perhaps aside from elite SS defense. I’d bet the under on the projections but I still think he’ll be a star and a top-5 asset

9:56	Erik: If I told you a team was 6 games out of both wild card spots and had its top three prospects looking ready to help out at the MLB level, you wouldn’t call them crazy to think about buying at the deadline, would you? What if I told you that team was the Phillies?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies would be crazy to buy at the deadline

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies suck. Things are looking up! But they still suck.

9:57	Mike: Whose record is more likely to be broken: DiMaggio’s hit streak or Williams’s .406 season?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Williams

9:57	James: In this market will Rich Hill net more than Drew Pomeranz? Should he?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Heavens no

9:57	SS: Most underrated superstar in the league? Most overrated player?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Lindor, perhaps, and then…I don’t know, is Jay Bruce overrated? Does anyone care?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Carlos Gonzalez feels a little overrated-y

9:59	Seth: least likely to be traded: lucroy, bruce, reddick–or are they all packing bags?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I guess Lucroy might be the least likely, but I’d still say he’s likely