Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/19/17

July 19, 2017

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to a weird one-off Wednesday baseball chat

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Back to normal scheduling next week. I’ve just wound up with two straight Fridays out of the house and off the grid

9:06	Carson Cistulli: Jeff Sullivan, making his weekly Friday appearance, On a Wednesday….? This commenter is intimidated – Dare I say – Threatened, yes threatened by change!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I should also note that Dave will be taking the Friday chat again. Next week, he’s back to Wednesday, and I’m back to Friday

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Normalcy resumes, to whatever extent it ever can

9:07	Justin: What are the Pirates going to do at the Deadline? They seem in limbo

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Pirates certainly understand how, good recent play aside, they’re still up against it. They’re not as good as the Cubs, and they’re well out of the wild-card race

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: It might be difficult for them to move McCutchen — there’s only so much demand. But he should be in play. Trading a guy like Watson, meanwhile, is automatic

9:09	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Am I wrong to think that the returns teams are getting on the deadline trade market seem a little light this year? Besides the Quintana deal (and Q will help the Cubs for years to come), no one’s really done all that much damage to the farm yet.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Yesterday’s Yankees trade wasn’t cheap. Frazier has extremely limited value, and Robertson is simultaneously good and expensive. Kahnle is the big get but he remains some measure of unknown

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: The J.D. Martinez trade package was light, sure, but he’s a rental, and he’s a horrible defender

9:11	John: Given Yanks and Sox (soon) upgrades, O’s should sell. Does the recent Nats and Yanks bullpen upgrade diminish the return of elite RP’s compared to the returns the Yanks got last year for Miller and Chapman? What return we looking at for Britton and Brach now?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: As good as, say, Kahnle, Robertson, and Doolittle have been, they’re not going to be valued as high as a healthy Zach Britton. Britton’s got more of the recent track record of dominance. So if Britton can look like his old self sometime very soon, then he could fetch an awfully high price. Brach, less so, and Britton still doesn’t look 100%, but if he gets things clicking, that’s valuable for any and every club in contention

9:13	PG-13: Do you play OOTP? It’s real good

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t. I would, probably, if this were a part-time job, but at this point, I don’t need to fill my non-baseball time with more baseball

9:13	Jeb: With where the Pirates currently are, would you still trade McCutchen before the Deadline?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I’d try, but if the demand isn’t there, and with Meadows not performing so well in the minors, I see a reason for hanging on until the winter again

9:14	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: When you hike, how heavy is your pack generally?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Just hiking, it’s light. Day pack. When backpacking, probably 30-35lbs. When mountaineering, 45-50

9:15	Attila the Hunplugged: What do you think of Berrios as of late? Seems like he’s reverting to his old nibbling ways a bit. Time to worry? Sell high?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not worried very much yet. He’s really just had the one truly bad start, and that was his most recent game against Houston. I can’t hold it against any pitcher if he struggles against Houston, which appears to have entered a team-wide cheat code

9:16	Blackurn: % Chances Cutch gets traded at the trade deadline?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I’ll put it at a truly unsatisfying 50%

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a rental, but the market for OF bats is still limited

9:17	Alisa Bosconovitch: Hey man how was the hiking trip?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Climb Middle Sister

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: It is breathtaking

9:17	Ned Yost: Astros are running a 130 wRC+ 100 games into the season. Still seems like a misprint every time I see it.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: For me, the greatest disappointment about the Correa injury is that makes it that much more unlikely we’ll get to evaluate this offense as truly one of the best ever. When healthy, it is, but now the numbers are going to go down with Correa out for two months 🙁

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: He, and the Astros, will be fine

9:19	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Has anyone actually laid eyes on Tito Polo? I refuse to believe he’s a real person.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/73955164/v1234973483

9:19	Jack: Will the Dodgers ever lose again?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Once or twice a week

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Remember when the 2013 Dodgers went from 30-42 to 83-55? That’s 53-13 over 66 games! Over the remainder, they went 9-15

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: These Dodgers, granted, are better than they were

9:21	Attila the Hunplugged: Can we expect Derek Fisher up in the next month?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I would think so, but they could always make a trade. They might’ve been leaning that way already anyway

9:21	Neal Huntington: Who am I going to deal at the deadline?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Watson at the absolute very least, and probably for a guy who might be able to help as soon as 2018

9:22	2-D: Nice timing on the Kahnle article.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I was thinking about scheduling it to post this morning, instead of yesterday afternoon, but I had a hunch, because this time of year always makes me worried about scheduling ahead. Got lucky

9:23	Neal Huntington: Is there any chance I trade Cutch or Cole at the deadline?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Cutch yes, Cole probably no

9:23	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Who made the better trade yesterday–the Diamondbacks, the Tigers, the Yankees, or the White Sox? Ooh, or the Rays (Chaz Roe for cash considerations)?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Diamondbacks did well. You wouldn’t believe how close I came to writing a Chaz Roe post, though. I think he’s going to help more than people think

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: That is, if he’s healthy now. The Rays know how good his slider is

9:24	Zane: Do you think that how the White Sox fare in the next 5-ish years is going to seriously affect how prospects are valued in trades? If they do really well, not much would change, but if their rebuild doesn’t go well, will prospects be valued lower in trades than they are now?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: You’d need to have a whole bunch of prospects disappointing, across the board. The White Sox aren’t the first team to try to rebuild. It’s worked for the Astros. It’s worked for the Cubs. It’s working for the Brewers, and one could argue it’s working for the Braves

9:26	John: Rosenthal’s most recent column suggested the idea of the Yankees trading Betances for a starter, you think theres any chance of that? I feel like the Dodgers have enough young starters in AAA to make something work

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know what the appetite is right now for a power reliever who can’t throw a strike. Betances is great but he’s stuck in a worrisome slump. Timing doesn’t feel right

9:26	Attila the Hunplugged: What do you make of Black’s comments on Dahl? If he keeps hitting like he is, I don’t see how they keep him down. Parra can’t keep this up, and Dahl’s just better, no?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It’s already a crowded outfield, and Dahl needs to play a bunch. Performance and health will dictate how this goes. Dahl still needs some weeks to get up to speed

9:27	The Average Sports Fan: How would you grade the sales job of the White Sox?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: It’s been going extremely well, but then, they’ve had an unusually valuable crop of assets to move.

9:28	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What is the worst take you ever saw on a trade? (Inspired by someone in the media opining that NY had to deal Blake Rutherford to make room for Harper in the 2019 Harper/Frazier/Judge OF.)

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: That is a bad take

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: But I’ll go retroactive and point to everyone who said the Mariners got screwed when they traded Griffey Jr.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, it was kind of understandable at the time, but, wow

9:29	vimarkings: Why are the Blue Jays still a playoff possibility.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Because they are not bad

9:29	MN Bartolo: Do you foresee the Twins making any moves before the deadline? Maybe bullpen help?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I think they do some very boring stuff. They’re not going to make any splashes. Would’ve liked to see them get Roe instead but that’s pretty damn minor

9:30	next year feels amazing: Cubs have interest in Phelps but I can’t help but feel they could have expanded the Eloy package to get Kahnle. Something like Candelario and De La Cruz or Justin Steele. Thoughts?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure Kahnle’s name came up. Maybe they just don’t like him as much as the Yankees do. Maybe they’d prefer a reliever who can go more than one inning at a time

9:30	MAS: What is your take on the Yankkkes/White Sox trade? Big upgrade for Yankes bullpen but Frazier as a 1B? Meh. And Rutherford is a pretty valuable chip.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this locks Frazier in at 1B. And now it seems like the Yankees have an unbelievable bullpen. Going to write about that when this chat is over

9:31	Roberto: With the relative lack of return on the JD Mart deal, how can we expect other teams, both buyers and sellers, to adjust moving forward?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Pitching will remain expensive. Bats, on the other hand, seldom get big return packages around now. Probably related to how you can increase a pitcher’s relative playing time in the playoffs, but you can’t do that for a hitter

9:33	Jack: Evan Longoria’s career: VS RHP: .266/.334/.475 VS LHP: .283/.365/.521 Evan Longoria’s 2017: VS RHP: .292/.329/.477 VS LHP: .202/.301/.375 My question is: What the hell?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: .216 BABIP!

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: But also way, way more grounders against lefties than ever. Small enough sample it might not be anything, but he wasn’t great against lefties last season, either. Something has been changing here

9:34	Evan: Jeff, it seems like teams are moving quickly this year before the deadline. Four major moves by July 19th seems like a lot. Any thoughts as to why? And will we still get a flurry of activity on July 31?

9:36

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how much activity there will actually be on July 31, because there are still so many teams seemingly caught in the middle. That’s going to depend on the standings. But as for the recent big moves — it seems like teams trading for players should want to have them for as long as possible. So they’re incentivized to try to get things done earlier on. Trades now might be easier to negotiate than ever, since every team has similar evaluation tools, so it’s possible there’s just less value in hanging onto an asset until the last possible hour

9:36	ledwards: Does it even make sense for the Dodgers to make a deal? I could see adding a LH-RP at a reasonable price… don’t quite see a reason to move Verdugo, Buehler, or Alvarez for a marginal upgrade.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: They could probably stand to make an improvement in the bullpen, but, yeah, they’re not desperate for anything. If they have a problem, it’s a problem of having too many talented young players. Might just make sense eventually to consolidate

9:37	Luke: Zach Britton, what kind of package does he bring? A top 50 guy?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Depends how quickly he can get back to being dominant. Clock is ticking

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: If scouts tomorrow see him and say he looks like himself, yeah, he’ll get a haul

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to be quite expensive next year for a closer, but he’s better than, say, David Robertson

9:40	Dave: As a Tigers fan looking for some good news, Castellanos’ results are starting to match his batted ball profile: over 1.000 OPS in June and July. His batted ball profile almost identically mirrors Corey Seager. Has Castellanos finally arrived?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s arrived as an MVP or anything, but this is a guy who has power and who almost never pops up. Seems to me to be a very good developing hitter

9:42	Charlie Morton: If a team replaced their weakest position player with a Mike Trout type talent how much would a team improve their WS odds?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Depends how good the team was already — wouldn’t do much of anything for, say, the White Sox. But if you have a team firmly in the race, then we’re probably talking at least 10 percentage points

9:43	Mac: With Salazar supposed to make his return in the next few days, do you see the Indians waiting to see how that goes before they make any trades especially for a potential SP?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I can still see them sniffing around for SP improvements, but if Salazar looks good right away, that’ll reduce the need, of course. You wonder where they stand on Bauer’s awful results vs. his half-decent peripherals

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Indians probably feel less urgency than the standings would suggest

9:45	Ross: Playoff teams at the moment: Astros, Red Sox, Indians, Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rockies. Which of those teams will still be there at the end of the season?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Only team I’d be comfortable swapping right now is the Brewers

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I think the D-Backs and Rockies still have enough clearance, although I could see the Brewers knocking the Rockies out of a wild-card spot, I guess

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: they really need to get better starting pitching fast, however

9:48	seth: Is the only way the Reds find a taker for Cozart a significant injury to a contender SS? Chances guys like Schebler, Duvall, or Suarez are moved?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously Cozart isn’t an easy guy to move. It wouldn’t be a total shock to me if the Rays jumped in and ditched Hechavarria. I also wonder if there might be a slight chance now the Astros jump, with the understanding that someone will have to move when Correa returns

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s all that likely, but you could, say, have Correa and Cozart playing SS/3B, with Bregman playing more in left field

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Astros could operate with confidence that Cozart could keep hitting for power in their home ballpark

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Just might not be worth it to them for a minor rental upgrade when the division is already locked in

9:51	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Thanks Jeff, now I need to explain to my boss why my productivity dropped on a Wednesday instead of a Friday. And I don’t have my usual weekend excuse. Odds Dozier can repeat his insane second half from last year?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: 10%!

9:51	J: Great trades for the Yanks and Dbacks yesterday right? Yanks pen is ridiculous again.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Love the Yankees bullpen. Projects now as the best bullpen in baseball. Still kind of weird to see Chapman and Betances with performance declines

9:52

ThickTanPretzel: Let’s say a pitcher and a hitter in the same division have already faced each other a dozen times in a season. In a vacuum, would you bet on the hitter or the pitcher having the advantage in the next at-bat? In other words, which side benefits more from familiarity with the opponent, in your opinion? Any research on this?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, the pitcher would still have the statistical advantage, but I think the hitter has more to gain from familiarity. Pitchers can instantly know, from the numbers, where a hitter’s weaknesses are. Hitters learn more about pitchers, and what they look like, as they face them

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: You can learn a hitter through his statistics. You can’t learn what a pitch looks like in the same way

9:56

Tim: Lots of people are clamoring for the Blue Jays to be sellers, but their pending free agents — Bautista, Estrada, Liriano, Smith, Howell, Montero — all have little-to-no trade value. So unless they’re going to trade the kind of guys whose losses will hurt their chances to win next year and potentially beyond that as well — and I’m not sure they should already be giving up on next year — there’s really not much point in selling. They’re also not in a position where they should be giving up any kind of decent prospects to acquire short-term help. What’s the best course of action for them here? Is it to mostly stand still at the deadline and just hope they play better the rest of the season?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s going to be a pretty boring deadline, for the reasons you mention. Obvious to move Joe Smith, and his numbers are good. You can get something, there. But you don’t want to give up on 2018. You can trade, say, Happ, because starters are always in demand, but JA Happ isn’t fetching a blockbuster. I don’t think we’re on the verge of an organizational overhaul

9:57	Outside Animals: Is there a more impressive defensive inning for a player than Jean Segura’s trifecta of game saving plays against the Astros?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: The second one was pretty ordinary, but, yeah, the first and third were spectacular. I wish we had better numbers for stuff like that

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I like how people were giving credit to Yovani Gallardo for buckling down in the inning. He tried to blow it! A whole bunch of times! His shortstop wouldn’t let him

9:58	Attila the Hunplugged: Any word of an innings cap for J Montgomery or Berrios?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Berrios threw about 170 innings in each of the last two seasons, so he should be in the clear

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Montgomery last year got to 140, so expect to see him closely monitored in September