Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/19/17

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to a weird one-off Wednesday baseball chat

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Back to normal scheduling next week. I’ve just wound up with two straight Fridays out of the house and off the grid

9:06
Carson Cistulli: Jeff Sullivan, making his weekly Friday appearance, On a Wednesday….? This commenter is intimidated – Dare I say – Threatened, yes threatened by change!

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: I should also note that Dave will be taking the Friday chat again. Next week, he’s back to Wednesday, and I’m back to Friday

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Normalcy resumes, to whatever extent it ever can

9:07
Justin: What are the Pirates going to do at the Deadline? They seem in limbo

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Pirates certainly understand how, good recent play aside, they’re still up against it. They’re not as good as the Cubs, and they’re well out of the wild-card race

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: It might be difficult for them to move McCutchen — there’s only so much demand. But he should be in play. Trading a guy like Watson, meanwhile, is automatic

9:09
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Am I wrong to think that the returns teams are getting on the deadline trade market seem a little light this year? Besides the Quintana deal (and Q will help the Cubs for years to come), no one’s really done all that much damage to the farm yet.

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Yesterday’s Yankees trade wasn’t cheap. Frazier has extremely limited value, and Robertson is simultaneously good and expensive. Kahnle is the big get but he remains some measure of unknown

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: The J.D. Martinez trade package was light, sure, but he’s a rental, and he’s a horrible defender

9:11
John: Given Yanks and Sox (soon) upgrades, O’s should sell. Does the recent Nats and Yanks bullpen upgrade diminish the return of elite RP’s compared to the returns the Yanks got last year for Miller and Chapman? What return we looking at for Britton and Brach now?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: As good as, say, Kahnle, Robertson, and Doolittle have been, they’re not going to be valued as high as a healthy Zach Britton. Britton’s got more of the recent track record of dominance. So if Britton can look like his old self sometime very soon, then he could fetch an awfully high price. Brach, less so, and Britton still doesn’t look 100%, but if he gets things clicking, that’s valuable for any and every club in contention

9:13
PG-13: Do you play OOTP? It’s real good

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t. I would, probably, if this were a part-time job, but at this point, I don’t need to fill my non-baseball time with more baseball

9:13
Jeb: With where the Pirates currently are, would you still trade McCutchen before the Deadline?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I’d try, but if the demand isn’t there, and with Meadows not performing so well in the minors, I see a reason for hanging on until the winter again

9:14
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: When you hike, how heavy is your pack generally?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Just hiking, it’s light. Day pack. When backpacking, probably 30-35lbs. When mountaineering, 45-50

9:15
Attila the Hunplugged: What do you think of Berrios as of late? Seems like he’s reverting to his old nibbling ways a bit. Time to worry? Sell high?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not worried very much yet. He’s really just had the one truly bad start, and that was his most recent game against Houston. I can’t hold it against any pitcher if he struggles against Houston, which appears to have entered a team-wide cheat code

9:16
Blackurn: % Chances Cutch gets traded at the trade deadline?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Right now I’ll put it at a truly unsatisfying 50%

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a rental, but the market for OF bats is still limited

9:17
Alisa Bosconovitch: Hey man how was the hiking trip?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Climb Middle Sister

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: It is breathtaking

9:17
Ned Yost: Astros are running a 130 wRC+ 100 games into the season. Still seems like a misprint every time I see it.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: For me, the greatest disappointment about the Correa injury is that makes it that much more unlikely we’ll get to evaluate this offense as truly one of the best ever. When healthy, it is, but now the numbers are going to go down with Correa out for two months 🙁

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: He, and the Astros, will be fine

9:19
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Has anyone actually laid eyes on Tito Polo? I refuse to believe he’s a real person.

9:19
Jack: Will the Dodgers ever lose again?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Once or twice a week

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Remember when the 2013 Dodgers went from 30-42 to 83-55? That’s 53-13 over 66 games! Over the remainder, they went 9-15

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: These Dodgers, granted, are better than they were

9:21
Attila the Hunplugged: Can we expect Derek Fisher up in the next month?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: I would think so, but they could always make a trade. They might’ve been leaning that way already anyway

9:21
Neal Huntington: Who am I going to deal at the deadline?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Watson at the absolute very least, and probably for a guy who might be able to help as soon as 2018

9:22
2-D: Nice timing on the Kahnle article.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I was thinking about scheduling it to post this morning, instead of yesterday afternoon, but I had a hunch, because this time of year always makes me worried about scheduling ahead. Got lucky

9:23
Neal Huntington: Is there any chance I trade Cutch or Cole at the deadline?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Cutch yes, Cole probably no

9:23
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Who made the better trade yesterday–the Diamondbacks, the Tigers, the Yankees, or the White Sox? Ooh, or the Rays (Chaz Roe for cash considerations)?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Diamondbacks did well. You wouldn’t believe how close I came to writing a Chaz Roe post, though. I think he’s going to help more than people think

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: That is, if he’s healthy now. The Rays know how good his slider is

9:24
Zane: Do you think that how the White Sox fare in the next 5-ish years is going to seriously affect how prospects are valued in trades? If they do really well, not much would change, but if their rebuild doesn’t go well, will prospects be valued lower in trades than they are now?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: You’d need to have a whole bunch of prospects disappointing, across the board. The White Sox aren’t the first team to try to rebuild. It’s worked for the Astros. It’s worked for the Cubs. It’s working for the Brewers, and one could argue it’s working for the Braves

9:26
John: Rosenthal’s most recent column suggested the idea of the Yankees trading Betances for a starter, you think theres any chance of that?  I feel like the Dodgers have enough young starters in AAA to make something work

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know what the appetite is right now for a power reliever who can’t throw a strike. Betances is great but he’s stuck in a worrisome slump. Timing doesn’t feel right

9:26
Attila the Hunplugged: What do you make of Black’s comments on Dahl? If he keeps hitting like he is, I don’t see how they keep him down. Parra can’t keep this up, and Dahl’s just better, no?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: It’s already a crowded outfield, and Dahl needs to play a bunch. Performance and health will dictate how this goes. Dahl still needs some weeks to get up to speed

9:27
The Average Sports Fan: How would you grade the sales job of the White Sox?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: It’s been going extremely well, but then, they’ve had an unusually valuable crop of assets to move.

9:28
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What is the worst take you ever saw on a trade? (Inspired by someone in the media opining that NY had to deal Blake Rutherford to make room for Harper in the 2019 Harper/Frazier/Judge OF.)

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: That is a bad take

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: But I’ll go retroactive and point to everyone who said the Mariners got screwed when they traded Griffey Jr.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, it was kind of understandable at the time, but, wow

9:29
vimarkings: Why are the Blue Jays still a playoff possibility.

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Because they are not bad

9:29
MN Bartolo: Do you foresee the Twins making any moves before the deadline? Maybe bullpen help?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: I think they do some very boring stuff. They’re not going to make any splashes. Would’ve liked to see them get Roe instead but that’s pretty damn minor

9:30
next year feels amazing: Cubs have interest in Phelps but I can’t help but feel they could have expanded the Eloy package to get Kahnle. Something like Candelario and De La Cruz or Justin Steele. Thoughts?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure Kahnle’s name came up. Maybe they just don’t like him as much as the Yankees do. Maybe they’d prefer a reliever who can go more than one inning at a time

9:30
MAS: What is your take on the Yankkkes/White Sox trade? Big upgrade for Yankes bullpen but Frazier as a 1B? Meh. And Rutherford is a pretty valuable chip.

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think this locks Frazier in at 1B. And now it seems like the Yankees have an unbelievable bullpen. Going to write about that when this chat is over

9:31
Roberto: With the relative lack of return on the JD Mart deal, how can we expect other teams, both buyers and sellers,  to adjust moving forward?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Pitching will remain expensive. Bats, on the other hand, seldom get big return packages around now. Probably related to how you can increase a pitcher’s relative playing time in the playoffs, but you can’t do that for a hitter

9:33
Jack: Evan Longoria’s career:

VS RHP: .266/.334/.475

VS LHP: .283/.365/.521

Evan Longoria’s 2017:

VS RHP: .292/.329/.477

VS LHP: .202/.301/.375

My question is: What the hell?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: .216 BABIP!

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: But also way, way more grounders against lefties than ever. Small enough sample it might not be anything, but he wasn’t great against lefties last season, either. Something has been changing here

9:34
Evan: Jeff, it seems like teams are moving quickly this year before the deadline. Four major moves by July 19th seems like a lot. Any thoughts as to why? And will we still get a flurry of activity on July 31?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how much activity there will actually be on July 31, because there are still so many teams seemingly caught in the middle. That’s going to depend on the standings. But as for the recent big moves — it seems like teams trading for players should want to have them for as long as possible. So they’re incentivized to try to get things done earlier on. Trades now might be easier to negotiate than ever, since every team has similar evaluation tools, so it’s possible there’s just less value in hanging onto an asset until the last possible hour

9:36
ledwards: Does it even make sense for the Dodgers to make a deal? I could see adding a LH-RP at a reasonable price… don’t quite see a reason to move Verdugo, Buehler, or Alvarez for a marginal upgrade.

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: They could probably stand to make an improvement in the bullpen, but, yeah, they’re not desperate for anything. If they have a problem, it’s a problem of having too many talented young players. Might just make sense eventually to consolidate

9:37
Luke: Zach Britton, what kind of package does he bring? A top 50 guy?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Depends how quickly he can get back to being dominant. Clock is ticking

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: If scouts tomorrow see him and say he looks like himself, yeah, he’ll get a haul

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to be quite expensive next year for a closer, but he’s better than, say, David Robertson

9:40
Dave: As a Tigers fan looking for some good news, Castellanos’ results are starting to match his batted ball profile: over 1.000 OPS in June and July. His batted ball profile almost identically mirrors Corey Seager. Has Castellanos finally arrived?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s arrived as an MVP or anything, but this is a guy who has power and who almost never pops up. Seems to me to be a very good developing hitter

9:42
Charlie Morton: If a team replaced their weakest position player with a Mike Trout type talent how much would a team improve their WS odds?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Depends how good the team was already — wouldn’t do much of anything for, say, the White Sox. But if you have a team firmly in the race, then we’re probably talking at least 10 percentage points

9:43
Mac: With Salazar supposed to make his return in the next few days, do you see the Indians waiting to see how that goes before they make any trades especially for a potential SP?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I can still see them sniffing around for SP improvements, but if Salazar looks good right away, that’ll reduce the need, of course. You wonder where they stand on Bauer’s awful results vs. his half-decent peripherals

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Indians probably feel less urgency than the standings would suggest

9:45
Ross: Playoff teams at the moment: Astros, Red Sox, Indians, Rays, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rockies. Which of those teams will still be there at the end of the season?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Only team I’d be comfortable swapping right now is the Brewers

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: I think the D-Backs and Rockies still have enough clearance, although I could see the Brewers knocking the Rockies out of a wild-card spot, I guess

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: they really need to get better starting pitching fast, however

9:48
seth: Is the only way the Reds find a taker for Cozart a significant injury to a contender SS? Chances guys like Schebler, Duvall, or Suarez are moved?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously Cozart isn’t an easy guy to move. It wouldn’t be a total shock to me if the Rays jumped in and ditched Hechavarria. I also wonder if there might be a slight chance now the Astros jump, with the understanding that someone will have to move when Correa returns

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s all that likely, but you could, say, have Correa and Cozart playing SS/3B, with Bregman playing more in left field

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Astros could operate with confidence that Cozart could keep hitting for power in their home ballpark

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Just might not be worth it to them for a minor rental upgrade when the division is already locked in

9:51
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Thanks Jeff, now I need to explain to my boss why my productivity dropped on a Wednesday instead of a Friday. And I don’t have my usual weekend excuse.  Odds Dozier can repeat his insane second half from last year?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: 10%!

9:51
J: Great trades for the Yanks and Dbacks yesterday right?  Yanks pen is ridiculous again.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Love the Yankees bullpen. Projects now as the best bullpen in baseball. Still kind of weird to see Chapman and Betances with performance declines

9:52
ThickTanPretzel: Let’s say a pitcher and a hitter in the same division have already faced each other a dozen times in a season. In a vacuum, would you bet on the hitter or the pitcher having the advantage in the next at-bat? In other words, which side benefits more from familiarity with the opponent, in your opinion? Any research on this?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, the pitcher would still have the statistical advantage, but I think the hitter has more to gain from familiarity. Pitchers can instantly know, from the numbers, where a hitter’s weaknesses are. Hitters learn more about pitchers, and what they look like, as they face them

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: You can learn a hitter through his statistics. You can’t learn what a pitch looks like in the same way

9:56
Tim: Lots of people are clamoring for the Blue Jays to be sellers, but their pending free agents — Bautista, Estrada, Liriano, Smith, Howell, Montero — all have little-to-no trade value. So unless they’re going to trade the kind of guys whose losses will hurt their chances to win next year and potentially beyond that as well — and I’m not sure they should already be giving up on next year — there’s really not much point in selling. They’re also not in a position where they should be giving up any kind of decent prospects to acquire short-term help. What’s the best course of action for them here? Is it to mostly stand still at the deadline and just hope they play better the rest of the season?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s going to be a pretty boring deadline, for the reasons you mention. Obvious to move Joe Smith, and his numbers are good. You can get something, there. But you don’t want to give up on 2018. You can trade, say, Happ, because starters are always in demand, but JA Happ isn’t fetching a blockbuster. I don’t think we’re on the verge of an organizational overhaul

9:57
Outside Animals: Is there a more impressive defensive inning for a player than Jean Segura’s trifecta of game saving plays against the Astros?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: The second one was pretty ordinary, but, yeah, the first and third were spectacular. I wish we had better numbers for stuff like that

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: I like how people were giving credit to Yovani Gallardo for buckling down in the inning. He tried to blow it! A whole bunch of times! His shortstop wouldn’t let him

9:58
Attila the Hunplugged: Any word of an innings cap for J Montgomery or Berrios?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Berrios threw about 170 innings in each of the last two seasons, so he should be in the clear

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Montgomery last year got to 140, so expect to see him closely monitored in September

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Doubt the Yankees are firmly set on some specific innings limit

10:00
Moltar: Seeing that a relatively smart team like the Red Sox are interested in Flores and TJ Rivera, am I wrong to be paranoid that the second they leave the Mets they’ll go Turner/Murphy and become star-level hitters?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s more a statement about just how terrible the Red Sox have been at third base

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox project for 0.0 3B WAR the rest of the way, dead last in baseball

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Their .607 OPS from third base is second-last in baseball, one point ahead of the Giants

10:02
My name is Judge…: now that JD has moved what other OF will be on the move?  which contending teams need OF help?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Unless McCutchen goes somewhere, my sense is it’s going to be all kinds of underwhelming

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Anyone want Jay Bruce?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Anyone?

10:04
Owen: Why have so many big trades happened more than a week before the July 31 deadline? Are teams simply trying to get an extra start (in Quintana’s case) or an extra 10 games out of the player(s) that they trade for?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not totally unheard of — last year’s Pomeranz trade happened on July 14

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: It feels like a little more early activity than normal, but there’s so much yet to be determined about the market that some teams probably just wanted to forego that uncertainty and do something before other teams got involved

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Like, from Oakland or Chicago’s perspective, this way they could get out in front of a potentially enormous bullpen market

10:06
Josh: Who does Boston trade for now?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Jed Lowrie feels super obvious

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Might as well target, say, Lowrie and Hendriks or something

10:07
John: How do you like the trade for the Yankees? Hate to lose Rutherford, but nice to fill a few holes, especially with some control remaining over the relievers, and still have a deep system

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: I like the pivot. Trouble improving a damaged rotation? Assemble the deepest bullpen in the world

10:08
Al Avila: Was I fleeced by the Diamondbacks? Should I have employed a “stand pat” strategy this month?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what else you were supposed to do. Just the wrong time to have a guy like J.D. Martinez

10:10
Roberto: do you personally believe the Dbacks have a fighting chance vs the Dodgers? What does the trade mean for Tomas/Peralta? Can their pitching sustain their success? Does Goldy finally make the playoffs!

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Goldschmidt has made the playoffs! In 2011. He went 7-for-16. The Diamondbacks lost

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: There’s nothing the Diamondbacks could do to become favorites in the NL. Teams like the Dodgers, Nationals, and probably the Cubs are just too good. But that doesn’t mean there’s no point in making an upgrade, especially when it comes at such a low cost. The playoffs aren’t truly random, but the Diamondbacks are good enough to push any team around to the brink

10:12
jjp: Odds Jim Johnson is pitching in Atlanta in September?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: 10-20%? No good reason for that to happen, but he might not be good enough to make a trade worth it

10:12
Roberto: the white sox haul for their stars is making my phillies heart hurt

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Not many teams have assets like Sale, Quintana, and Eaton

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: The White Sox were starting from a hell of a strong position

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Their problem was never stars. It was depth. Dealing stars makes it easier to launch a rebuild

10:15
Matt: I’m quite concerned with Sonny Gray’s diminished velocity as well as track record of injuries. So I don’t think he’s worth a price anywhere near Quintana. That said, I ebt he gets that return. With that in mind, are there any realistic SP upgrades available for Cashman to target? I’m not talking warm bodies like Garcia or Lynn, but actual targets as upgrades.

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: With the bullpen so deep now, the Yankees have less of a need. They don’t need their starters to go 6+ innings; they hardly even need them to go 5

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: With the youth in the rotation, it would make sense to find some innings insurance. But they don’t need to bid at the top of the market

10:16
sgt: re: the JD Martinez trade, and Robertson/Kahnle/Frazier, the returns seem pretty mediocre. Why pull the trigger so far out from the trade deadline if you’re the Tigers/White Sox? Even if the market seemed dead now, there’s 12 days left.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Rutherford is good

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: BA just had him as a midseason top-40 prospect

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think the White Sox were going to do much better than that. And I don’t think J.D. Martinez was going to find a larger market a week and a half from now

10:19
DB: Is Justin Upton going to opt out of his remaining 4yr/$89M at the end of this season? And does the Tigers impending rebuild have anything to do with his decision?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: If Upton has a huge second half, I could see that, but otherwise, I don’t think he’d find close to that same amount of money in free agency in November

10:20
someone: thoughts on the Zach Britton-Cubs trade rumors?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: There will be Zach Britton-everyone trade rumors if and when Britton shows that he’s good again

10:22
Weston A: is Blevins+Reed+Duda/Cabrera/Flores a comparable package to what WSox gave up?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Comparable but worse. Blevins is a LOOGY, and neither he nor Reed has Kahnle’s potential long-term value

10:22
Big Tuna: Rosenthal is reporting the Red Sox are now looking at Wilmer Flores and TJ Rivera. That’s better than Devers?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Probably wouldn’t come with a prohibitive acquisition cost

10:23
Mike M: Shouldn’t more teams do what the Yankees did yesterday, and fix a thin rotation by buying lockdown relievers on the cheap and going to the pen early and often? I’m looking at you, Houston.

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Houston is probably already going to do that

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: It’s how they’re built, and they don’t have starters known for their durability

10:23
Big Tuna: Who closes in Chicago?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Who cares?

10:24
Carl: Was Todd Frazier basically a throw in in this trade?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Slightly better than a throw-in. He does have value; he just has less value than the other two players included

10:24
OC: Think schoop’s year is a breakout/new baseline looking forward, or more of a peak year?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Right now I think it’s more of a peak year than a breakout year. I still don’t trust his discipline, and he continues to pop up too often

10:25
Eric: Dodgers gonna do anything or nah? If so, will it be the usual low-key thing that just annoys everyone?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I like how it could be considered annoying that the Dodgers might not do anything, even though they haven’t lost in like a month and a half

10:25
2-D: Assuming Frazier plays 1B for the Yankees, who matches up best for Alonso now?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Frazier is automatically going to be the regular 1B

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: By which I mean, don’t close the door on Alonso just yet

10:26
Xolo: Is Britton really that much better than Brad Hand?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: But Hand is good too, and will be valued as such

10:27
Trades!: With a small market for bats, was JD the only significant name that will be traded? Guys like Bruce and Melky, will have get moved?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Feels like August stuff more than late-July stuff

10:27
tom steele: is baseball the best or the worst? i can never decide

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Everything you love is both

10:27
HeeHaw: When was the last time a team has been as active as the White Sox when selling? Everything not named Southpaw appears to be in the clearance bin.

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Other teams have been active like this before. They just had an easier starting position

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: You don’t really need to go out of your way to market the players they’ve had to deal

10:28
Attila the Hunplugged: Worried about Aroldis at all?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Not worried, but curious

10:28
Ray: Odds Dombrowski panics and trades Devers for a 3B with ML experience now that Yankees moved?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t expect Dave Dombrowski to be much of a panicker

10:31
Carl: It does  seem hard to believe the Indians could not offer any better than the D-backs did for JD.  Are they trying to go even cheaper for an impact bat? Jay Bruce?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t look at the Indians and see a true need, with Brantley/Zimmer/Chisenhall/Guyer

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not the sexiest outfield in the world, but it’s good enough to work

10:32
Nickels: Is Kanhle the most valuable player coming back to the Yanks in the deal?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: I think so

10:32
seth: Does this mean Alonso stays in OAK and gets a QO after the season? not much demand out there right now…Or do Yankees come back to get him and move Headley to the bench/Frazier to 3rd?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: To add on to what was above, I do think there’s a real possibility Alonso re-signs where he is

10:32
Dan: I read Dave’s piece but still think the JD return package is light.

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s possible for a return to be simultaneously light and about the best you can do. In theory, they could’ve held on and gone the QO route, but the compensation won’t be that valuable either

10:33
Marcus Banks: If Kahnle is as good as you say he is then I think he was worth Babe Rutherford.

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Important to note that Kahnle is probably more of a risk than other guys, just because of the lack of a track record, and his adjustments have been subtle. He didn’t add a new pitch and suddenly dominate. He made little tweaks and became dominant. He *has* been truly elite. Still unclear how much of that sticks, but all signs are positive

10:35
Slick Rick Hahn: Will anyone give me something decent for Avisail Garcia? Or should I hold on to him?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Did you see the J.D. Martinez deal?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Garcia wouldn’t fetch very much

10:36
Chaps: First Trout, now Correa, is the headfirst slide the new trampoline?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: And Trout *immediately* came back and stole a base with a headfirst slide

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: There’s showmanship everywhere

10:36
Mark: Who is the next big name to get dealt?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know where the “big name” cutoff is, but Sonny Gray is going to go

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: He’s supposed to start in a couple hours

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I wonder what the chances are that he’s suddenly scratched

10:39
Geoff: Willson Contreras is 10th in MLB (1st among Catchers) in WAR for the trailing 30 days and has a 161 wRC+. YTD he trails only Buster Posey in WAR. How much longer until this guy becomes a household name?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: His challenge is standing out among the deep crop of star players in Chicago. Anthony Rendon still isn’t a household name. It’s not his fault. It’s Bryce Harper’s fault

10:40
Tarik: How do you assess Sonny Gray’s value? Can he return 2 top-50 prospects?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the top-50 prospects. He can return two in the 26-50 range, but he’s less valuable than Quintana, who brought back two guys in the top 100

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Gray can’t get two top-50 types if one of them is about as good as Eloy Jimenez

10:41
Chris: If the Indians were at least in discussions about JD Martinez, is it safe to assume they’ve inquired about Cutch, too?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: That would be a safe assumption

10:41
mike: with their mew found depth what could the yankees get if they decided to trade betantces

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Less now than a few months ago

10:42
vimarkings: Why does Fangraphs think the Blue Jays still a playoff possible? They need to play 667 just to reach 89 wins!

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Our current odds don’t think making the playoffs will require 89 wins

10:43
Dan: FYI: Brewers, losers of 3 straight; Cubs, winners of 5 straight

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Would anyone be surprised if the magic were ending?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, you don’t want to overreact, just because it conforms to expectations; the Brewers do still have a multi-game lead

10:44
RK: Perhaps a better question for Dave, but I’ll ask you anyway: if you had a comprehensive database of contract situations (with buyouts, options, etc) and used Zips or some other projection system, what would be the biggest obstacle to creating a continuously updating productionalized/simple version of the trade value list for every player ranked in terms of excess win value over contract?  Is that something that has been considered?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: In theory, something like this is doable. In fact, I know of companies out there that offer information much like the above. They basically track full organizational surplus value. It’s something that could be built, even here, but it would probably be too complicated, and it would require near-constant attention. You’d have to build in ways of estimating future earnings, that change along with the projections, and…well, look, I don’t know what it’s like to code stuff like this, but I can see why Dave just puts this together once or twice a year

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: We’d all probably love to have a feature like that, but it’s overwhelming to think about building it

10:47
Kirk: The Red Sox have played 58 innings in 4 days. How much do you think something like this affects a team, both in the short-term and the long-term?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: And they don’t get a day off for more than another week. Long-term, I don’t think it really matters, but short-term, you’ll probably need some roster shuffling because the pitchers will get exhausted

10:48
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Rumors about that Swanson may be demoted.  Is there any logic to this?  Why play Camargo instead?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Because Camargo has somehow been good, and Swanson has been bad

10:48
Jeff: Can you say something nice about the Blue Jays?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I like their home run goal horn

10:49
Amy: Billy Beane said that the A’s are entering a full rebuild in advance of the new stadium. How would you go about the rebuild if you were running the A’s?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: A lot like this, plus a Sonny Gray trade

10:50
klof: Do the Cubs consider trading away Arrieta while trading for a more cost controlled starter? Has something like that occurred before? What AL teams would be a fit for Arrieta?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think it makes sense. His value is too far down, and the Cubs could still use him

10:50
FGFan: Which was the last team as good as these Dodgers?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: The 2016 Chicago Cubs

10:50
Alec Asher Wojciechowski: What do the Astros do when Keuchel is back? 6 man rotation? Or whi of Peacock/Fiers/Morton goes to the pen?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: You’ll probably see some shuffling to give different starters days off, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Peacock went into a swingman role

10:51
A person: Is J.D. Martinez’s defense so bad that the Dodgers just simply weren’t interested in upgrading their bat in LF of

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Probably

10:51
jon: Would the Pirates trade Felipe Rivero so soon? What kind of return would he get if he’s traded?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’d much rather move Watson for another guy kind of like Rivero

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Would’ve loved to see Ray Searage get a shot at Blake Treinen

10:52
Guest: Think there would be anything wrong with the Astros just standing pat at the deadline? I’d like to see us add at least one of Brad Hand/Justin Wilson, but if it’s going to cost us Kyle Tucker…is that really worth it? I could see either one imploding down the stretch for us just as easily as being a big difference maker

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to see them add someone like Hand, or, at the very least, an effective LOOGY like Blevins, since that’s something they don’t have. But the Astros definitely don’t need to urgently do anything

10:54
Matt : On my way to lunch so I’m curious, if you go to subway what do you order?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Every day at home I have a turkey sandwich that is better and cheaper than any sandwich I could get at Subway

10:54
David: With the Yankees trade and the Rays still playing strong, should the Mariners be looking to sell? I don’t see them being able to catch either of those two teams for a Wild Card slot. Seems like they are in a difficult spot right now.

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: They are in a difficult spot, but I don’t think they’re going to sell unless they lose just about every game between now and the deadline. They could desperately use a half-decent starting pitcher. They don’t need to aim very high

10:55
squints: what a terrible return for JD – right?  This makes up for the shelby miller trade?  Wouldn’t it be better for the tigers just to have made a QO to Jd?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: To be clear, this absolutely in no way makes up for the Shelby Miller trade

10:56
David: Any chance Miguel Cabrera gets moved?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Nope

10:56
Evan: Should the Mets regret the Cespy/Fulmer trade at all? Or is this one of those trades that’s ended up well for both sides

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think the Mets at all would regret getting Cespedes. He’s been a big part of their recent identity

10:57
Will: What’s the eventual cost for Wilson, Neshek – the tier beneath Britton

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Wilson will get more than Neshek. Wilson might get a prospect around the bottom of the top 100. Neshek is more scraping the bottom of a team’s own top 10 or 15

10:59
Kimball: Given how volatile RP is, do you think even some “buying” GMs shop their better RPs at the deadline to see what they might get?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Highly doubt it. Teams in the hunt want more relief pitching, not less

10:59
Sam: Did yanks overpay? Feels like they could have given a similar package for sonny gray

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: They could not have

11:01
Robby: What would a return for Jacob deGrom look like?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Kind of similar to the Quintana package. Smaller, I think, because deGrom has a worse health history, and a worse contract situation. But he’s a top-of-the-rotation starter, for sure

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Both guys are, in theory, under team control through 2020. But Quintana has his contract locked in, while deGrom is a Super Two in arb-year 1

11:02
Jafo: So is Cargo cooked? He can’t have much value as a free agent can he?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a future pillow contract if I’ve ever seen one

11:03
Kimball: Does Leonys Martin have any trade value?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: No

11:05
Bravos: Acuna’s speed seems to not be playing as well in the upper minors yet he’s stealing almost every opportunity he gets. Is this a learning exercise while he’s in the minors? Why’s he running like he’s Dee Gordon when he’s consistently getting caught?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: So much of good baserunning is about experience and situational awareness. Not just raw speed. There’s little harm in getting Acuna thrown out a bunch in the minors, where winning isn’t the priority. The hope is that he’s learning something from his various successes and failures

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: He wouldn’t be the first fast guy to just not be real good at stealing. But in his first full year, Billy Hamilton was thrown out 23 times. *Since* then, he’s been thrown out 21 times. His failures made him better

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next Friday at the normal time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/19/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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vimarkings
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vimarkings

Why are the Blue Jays still a playoff possible? They need to play 667 just to reach 89 wins!