Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/28/17

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for the hiccup — had to amend some behind-the-scenes team depth charts

9:10
Owen: Should the Nats trade for a SP like Gray/Darvish, or focus on the bullpen?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Bullpen, for me. Just build that thing out. They have enough starters and if you feel like Roark or Gonzalez might not be so reliable in October, just limit them to five or so innings

9:11
Jack: Thoughts on Ramirez for Cishek? Seems like a pointless trade. Was Jerry just scratching his trade itch here? Did the Rays just feel they had to do something, anything about the bullpen after yet another failure last night?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: The Rays are quietly overhauling their bullpen and they’ve been picking up a *lot* of sliders. It’s becoming a bullpen full of specialists, which is an interesting approach. Going to be an awful lot of mound visits

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: As far as the Mariners are concerned, I’m sure they like Ramirez’s cost control and flexibility. Their pitching depth has been tested and there’s not very much in the upper levels, as rotation insurance goes. So this somewhat weakens their present-day bullpen but Ramirez is a useful No. 5 for a few more years

9:13
Jack: Doesn’t it seem weird that someone as strong as Khris Davis would have such a weak throwing arm? I know there’s a lot more than arm strength when it comes to hitting home runs, but one would still think most guys that have the strength to hit the ball hard would also have the strength to throw the ball hard, or am I off base here?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I think the understanding is that Davis sustained some kind of shoulder injury, in college I believe. Arm hasn’t recovered. The problem might be mechanical, or he might just have a weaker right shoulder, but my guess is that for a righty hitter, a lot of the power comes from the left shoulder and the lower body

9:14
Pie: How long would you say you typically spend on the titles of your articles? I very much enjoy them

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I usually go with the first thing that comes to mind. Never more than a few minutes. Headlines have been a historical problem of mine ūüôĀ

9:15
Brandon M: I have one day left in Portland before I catch a flight tomorrow home. Any good hikes/restaurants/activities worth doing?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Go hike somewhere on Mt Hood — Cooper Spur trail if you’re feeling ambitious. Have dinner and beer at Breakside (northeast) or Great Notion

9:16
Matt: If the price for Gray proves too high, who would the Yanks be best to move onto? Any of Darvish, Lynn, or Straily a good fit?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not strongly of the opinion the Yankees even need a starter right now. In a way you can kind of think of them having “added” a starter by the Red Sox losing David Price to the DL

9:18
DMoney: Derek Fisher, will be remain an everyday starter in the future?  How does the future OF picture look with Springer as a mainstay, Marwin excelling, Reddick not too far behind, and Kyle Tucker in the mix?  Assume Aoki is gone.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t forget the weirdly extreme Jake Marisnick!

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: The Astros don’t have too many long-term problems at the moment. The outfield is definitely among their non-problems. It does feel a little weird to see them still having Aoki, but that won’t go on much longer than it needs to if Fisher takes off

9:20
LAA: Who’s going to win the AL MVP?¬†¬†(Regardless of who “should.”)

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I bet Sale has a great chance if the Red Sox manage to make it into the playoffs

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Altuve will be deserving but he might lose votes because of how easy it’s been for the Astros to get way ahead

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Sale will face the pitcher bias. Altuve will face the way-too-good-of-a-team bias. Judge has a chance if he finishes well and the Yankees make the postseason

9:21
Jared: As high of a return as the A’s are said to have for Gray (ie Frazier, Brinson). Who do you think folds first Beane or a contending team?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: The A’s will ultimately settle for a less-shiny centerpiece

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Rumors are always outrageous before a trade is agreed to. It’s why a trade hasn’t been agreed to

9:24
TJ: Can Tanaka finish the year with his stats like this and still opt out? What would a FA contract look like?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Tanaka would opt out if he were coming off such an insane home-run rate. Granted, I don’t expect that to keep up. Tanaka should be pretty good between now and the end of the season, and if he’s good enough, he could do better than 3y/$67m. A fourth year could be out there somewhere

9:26
sadtrombone: Jeff: I was thinking of the MVP races this morning, and everyone seems to be thinking about Altuve or Judge in the AL. Why not Chris Sale? He’s having one of the most incredible pitching seasons of the last 20 years and is substantially higher in WAR than anyone else. Can I persuade you to take up the case?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I would barely need persuading. He’s incredible

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: One of the problems is the nature of our leaderboards. You have to do a little work to see hitters and pitchers on the same page

9:28
Owen: How many runs per year are lost by the nationals batting Goodwin/Difo/Drew/Raburn 1-2 in the lineup, and batting the 4 best hitters 3-4-5-6?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: A few. Not very many. It’s not optimal, but in fairness, Goodwin has been pretty good

9:29
e.o.g.: could jerry dipoto possibly get any more jerry dipoto than jerry dipoto has been at this deadline?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see if he trades a couple teenagers for, like, Kirby Yates

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Presently at 8 or 9 out of 10 Dipoto level

9:30
Coner: I like the idea of the Jays selling off pending FAs for whatever they can get and trying to retool for next year, but is the core strong enough to have one last run in the AL East next year?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the Jays are still good enough to give it a go next season. The problem with selling the pending free agents is that they have been bad

9:31
Erik: Who finishes with more career WAR, Yoan Moncada or Rafael Devers?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Moncada, but they’ll both be really good

9:32
Zee: Does the Price injury make the Red Sox more of a player in the Sonny Gray or Yu Darvish sweepstakes?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t expect them to get in on Gray. I do expect them to phone around on rentals. I’ll guess they’ll stop short of paying the Darvish price, but they could get someone more boring like a Lance Lynn

9:35
J: What do you think of Didi’s bat?¬†¬†123 wRC+ but the underlying indicators don’t look great.

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Feels like a mirage to me, but he’s still an average-hitting everyday shortstop, which is a valuable asset

9:36
DMoney: Does Cody Bellinger cut down on strikeouts enough to become an elite batter for years to come?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: He’s actually had his strikeouts under control for the last couple months or so. I still think he’ll have swing-and-miss issues and the comp I arrived at not too long ago was Chris Davis. Feels Davis-y. Good hitter with the occasional elite full season

9:37
Ronnie: His framing decline has been well explored, but what has happened to Jonathan Lucroy at the plate? Career low liner & fly ball rates as the result of an insane GB% of 56 (against a career average of only 42.5!!). He’s almost gotta be hurt, right? And, how does this impact his market this winter? Does he get/accept a qualifying offer?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Something almost has to be seriously wrong. At this point I don’t think he gets a QO, and he’s killing his market

9:38
Bo: Is the Dansby Swanson ordeal the result of skewed outcomes between manager playing for his job and front office playing for long term?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Swanson looked like he was ready. Starting him was the right call. Then it turned out he wasn’t ready after all. So now it’s time for a confidence-builder. I don’t think there’s anything too extraordinary here; just a player whose path hasn’t been totally smooth

9:41
LegallyEagle: How does Verdugo rate in your book/mind? Is he such an elite prospect worth comparing to ones the Dodgers refused to trade before (like Seager and Bellinger)?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Really like him. He’s a 21-year-old with more walks than strikeouts in Triple-A. Feels vaguely Benintendi-ish. I think he’ll be special, and I’d be shocked if the Dodgers sent him elsewhere

9:43
Batflips for BB: Do you think we’ve seen the end of the historically laughable trades (e.g. Andersen for Bagwell, Sandberg for Bowa) given how analytical organizations have become? I could still see something like this happening involving injury, but I’m more referring to rental for HOF kind of trades.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I think we’re basically done with trades that look laughable even at the time. The Shelby Miller trade might’ve been the death rattle. Of course there will forever be trades that look horrible in retrospect — just look at, say, Chris Taylor for Zach Lee. But just about every front office these days is on the same page

9:45
Ted: So what do you think the White Sox will do with their bullpen real estate now that they don’t need it to hold any actual baseball players?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Grow some plants

9:46
Mecha-Syzmborski: What’s wrong with Kyle Seager? Just a down year? M’s really needed him to be pretty good again this year.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anything’s seriously wrong. He’s essentially the same player as ever. A little worse luck with his outcomes. He’s fine

9:46
Lars: Seems like Dipoto is destined to make a splash for a SP, but he tends to make slightly unexpected deals. Who besides Gray could he target? Cole? Degrom?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I think Gray would count as an extremely unexpected deal for the Mariners to make

9:47
Mike Milligan: So Darvish has been less than stellar this year and frankly I don’t see Verlander or Gray as significant upgrades over Maeda. Assuming Kershaw returns should the Dodgers stand pat on starting pitchers ?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I believe so, yes

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I wonder how much of all this talk about the Dodgers looking for starters is coming from sources who aren’t with the Dodgers

9:48
Ham Bone: What punishment should an ump have to face for tossing Beltre? It should definitely be humiliating and very public

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Those umpires already have to exist as themselves every single day upon waking up

9:50
Jason: A ton of names are being floated around at the deadline, but give me a name who could be a surprise move?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t count on it, but it would be really, really, really interesting if the Twins decided to sell Byron Buxton

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine where that market value is

9:51
matt: is jake arrieta fixed, as much as a post-2015 jake arrieta can be fixed?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: I’m still not seeing enough strikes and the velocity hasn’t returned. He is a worse version of himself

9:53
Evan: Rhys Hoskins vs Dom Smith. Who makes a bigger impact?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Hoskins, because he is better

9:54
Rafi: With Lance McCullers’ recent struggles and the fact that he only pitched 81 innings last year, do you see the Astros moving him to the bullpen later this year?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: No, but I can see them skipping a few starts and limiting his playoff innings each game

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: With the depth of that bullpen, McCullers really won’t need to ever reach the sixth

9:56
Owen: Has a MLB level player been acquired in season and then traded without appearing in a game, as is possible w Jaime Garcia?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I’m having a lot of trouble thinking of any precedent

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: The 2002 Expos got Cliff Floyd on July 11, and then traded him on July 30, after falling further out of the race. But even there, Floyd played something like 15 games with Montreal

9:58
TJ: Beane and Cashman don’t usually telegraph trades like this in public – could it really get done w/o Adams/Sheffield?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: There are probably like 500 different possible packages of Yankees players that could work in a Sonny Gray exchange

9:58
Joe: Thoughts on Danny Salazar’s second half?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t see any reason to believe he’ll stop being kind of annoying

9:59
Erik: Will the Phillies be able to get anything for Howie Kendrick? He’s running a 126 wRC+ this year and is worth a bench spot on a contender, if not more. Who out there needs a solid veteran bat who can fill in anywhere?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Throwaway prospect or two. Maybe a couple low-level teenagers. Nothing of impact coming back

9:59
John: Assuming both are fully rested, the Mariners probably go with Paxton over Felix in a WC game right? Although it feels brutal to not go with the “ace”

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, you go with the ace

10:00
Jake: Is Zack Godley a legit #2 now?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: That’s my present belief. His curveball is really something

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Few starters more improved this season than Zack Godley

10:01
TJ: How long can the Angels pencil Pujols in the lineup for? He looks 100% cooked

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: They have nowhere else to turn. But this is only going to get more and more ugly

10:03
GK: What do you make of Cano’s season? Improved walk and K rates over last season, but the overall results aren’t there (at least by Cano standards).

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: He’s back to hitting grounders again, which is weird. But he’s better than a 116 wRC+ and that BABIP is going to find its level

10:04
Cary: Dave said in a chat that there’s no way the Mariners offer Dyson a QO. Why would that be a no brainer, if they thought he’ll be worth ~2.5 wins next year? The same thought applies to anyone with that value. Isn’t a one year deal at roughly market value either A) worth it on its own, or B) worth the upside of getting a pick?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Dyson doesn’t have the skillset that the market actually values at 2.5 or 3.5 wins or whatever. As a defense and baserunning player, he’s still a guy whose market value is suppressed, relative to a stronger bat

10:05
TJ: What does a Pineda FA contract look like? The Eovaldi deal?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Feels like an appropriate comp. Someone will pay for his 2018 rehab to get him for 2019

10:09
Reginald Denton III: Did you see what happened in the 9th in the Yankees/Rays game last night?¬†¬†When the game should’ve ended but didn’t?¬†¬†Have you ever seen anything like that before?

10:09
10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Have to think it comes down to a lack of playing experience with Hechavarria and Beckham. Just miscommunication at a horrible time. Can’t recall seeing something exactly like that in exactly that situation

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Really painful misplay, given the playoff stakes

10:11
Snakes: It’s only been 90 innings, but Godley is ticking all the boxes: 3 pitches, swing and miss stuff, weak contact, tons of ground balls, no injury history. Am I wrong to be excited about him turning into a front-rotation type?

10:12
Jack: What is love? What is this longing in our hearts for togetherness?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: All we are is our community

10:12
Ned: Does Andrew Moore go back to AAA with Erasmo headed back to the Mariners? Was Moore called up too early, is this his true talent, or somewhere in between?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Moore is not and will not be very good. I bet the Mariners will keep looking for another starter, somehow

10:13
Ross: There is a rumor among Boston people on Twitter that David Price is faking his elbow hurting again so he doesn’t have to pitch at Fenway tonight because he was apparently going to be booed for the Eckersley thing, and I would like your thoughts on this funny rumor.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I love Boston, but Boston sucks

10:14
DTH: it feels like the Rays have done a really nice job gaining marginal upgrades to “go for it” without sacrificing any of their top prospects. is this the best way to try to contend in a small market, or would you support the Oakland 2014 model more, getting more significant upgrades while sacrificing more of the future?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: A team like the Rays can never really afford to “go for it” in the classic sense. The margins are so narrow they can’t give up major long-term value for a short-term upgrade. So this is their compromise — when they have a chance to do something, they pay nothing for a Lucas Duda. It means other teams will upgrade by more, but anything more dramatic than this would be painfully short-sighted

10:15
Jack: Braves. When will they be a playoff team?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: In the hunt in 2019

10:17
Genghis Cohen: During the Cardinals game last night, a commentator gave a mind boggling stat that I think everyone deserves to hear. Greg Maddux faced 20,421 batters in his career. He pitched in only 312 3-0 counts. 177 of those were Intentional walks. Howaitwhat?! The fangraphs world deserves whatever exactly this is.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I’m afraid this isn’t exactly correct

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Maddux had 312 plate appearances end with the 3-and-0 pitch, but he had 644 plate appearances advance to and through a 3-and-0 count

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: 153 of those were intentional walks, and it’s still a crazy number, but it was underreported

10:19
Jason: Will Milwaukee do enough at the deadline to hold off the NL Central?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Good heavens no

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, they’ve already lost the Cubs. They’re not getting that back

10:19
Ryan Minor: Where do you stand on Jay-Z’ s claim that he “made the Yankee hat more famous then the Yankee game”

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Preposterous

10:20
Max: I saw a headline saying “Rangers WILL trade Darvish by Monday.” Does this mean they already have an acceptable offer on the table and are using it as leverage for a better deal, or is it something else?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to guess that was a headline written to twist the words of existing reports, which say the Rangers strongly believe they’ll make a trade

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Doubt that article offered any new information of its own.

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: But the Rangers will find an offer that’s better than any compensation they would otherwise stand to receive

10:21
GK: Clint Frazier has walked twice in 77 PAs. He always had pretty good walk rates in the minors, so is this probably a small sample size issue? Or is it a sign of something that might eventually come back to bite him?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: The samples are small but his actual discipline metrics are terrific. He hasn’t been chasing. His walks will look more normal eventually

10:22
PTBNL: As a Red Sox fan, I’m sad ūüôĀ 6-12 in our last 18, nobody is hitting, and now Price is back on the shelf. Starting to feel like NYY might take the division.

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll point out that, by BaseRuns, the Yankees have been the better team already by an awful lot

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: The Red Sox have a 72 wRC+ in July, worst in baseball

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: (The Astros are at a hilarious 157)

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: (That’s more than twice as high)

10:23
Dylan: Lucas Duda is going to carry the Rays to the World Series

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: That would be neat!

10:24
mtsw: Did we underestimate how changes to the QO would make the divide between buyers and sellers more stark? Seems like teams standing pat makes a lot less sense on the borderline-seller side now.

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Well, there’s less compensation to be gained, but that also means there’s less value to be gained through a trade. Trading teams no longer have to try to offer more value than a high comp pick. They’re still negotiating against one another, of course

10:27
J: Gray has the same amount of years of control as Miller had when he was dealt, but shouldn’t Gray be worth more since he’s a SP?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, and Gray will go for more

10:27
Yung Gamel : Do you think Jerry deals for Gray? Whether or not he should, does he like Kyle Lewis too much and believe in the longevity of his core too much to pull the trigger?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: My understanding is the Mariners are prepared to pay what they can to get Gray. It’s an aggressive pursuit. It’ll come down to whether another team plays some prospect trump card that the Mariners don’t have

10:30
TJ: Is Travis Shaw this good? If he this is legit, did he change anything in his approach? I’m a little confused by his success.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s a slightly better version of the hitter he already was in 2015. Going to the worse league and a much worse division probably helped

10:31
Mike: Do you buyers with good systems have their prospect quality held against them by sellers? It seems insane for the A’s to be demanding Torres or Frazier from the Yankees when they’re not going to get guys of that quality from other orgs that don’t have that type of prospect. Or is it just a negotiating tactic?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: It’s all a negotiating tactic. GMs will try to convince other GMs with deep farm systems that they can afford to trade from a position of depth, but said other GMs aren’t stupid. They all understand the value of a highly-ranked prospect

10:33
AJ: Where does Darvish end up? If anywhere?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I feel like the Astros would make a lot of sense if the two sides could get over any intra-Texas awkwardness

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: And I suppose the Red Sox do now count as a stronger fit than before

10:35
CaptainPeanutbutter: Have the redsox ever disclosed what the actual injury that price has been dealing with?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: There’s almost no way he’s not dealing with an at least partially torn UCL

10:36
John: Would getting Darvish help in landing Otani for Yankees? Is Mateo + Tate back to Texas enough?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Getting Darvish for 2017 won’t mean anything regarding Otani in 2018

10:37
hoju: Would a Jaime Garcia trade be the saddest and quickest white flag in memory?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: It’s objectively sad and hilarious that the Twins are in this position, but in reality, their odds *have* gotten dramatically worse in the last few days. So it makes sense that their trading position would have changed

10:37
mtsw: At what point do we have to look at the ENORMOUS (~1.50 points of ERA) split between Caleb Joseph and Welington Castillo’s catcher ERA as a cause of the Orioles’ pitching struggles?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I think everyone has at least some understanding that Caleb Joseph is a good defensive catcher, while Welington Castillo is a terrible one

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: And it just so happens that Joseph has been the better hitter this season, too!

10:39
Big Joey: I know it’s nearly impossible to accurately project a prospect, but what do you think Moncada’s peak season will look like? I’ve been seeing a lot of Melvin Upton comparisons…. 265¬†¬†20HR 30SB is not what I thought Moncada’s hype was all about.

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: The hype is because he’s laden with outstanding tools. So that means his ceiling is super high if he finds more consistent contact. Upton is a reasonable comp, and it looks a lot better if you think of that as sort of a 50th-percentile projection.

10:41
Collin: Do you think Chacin will be moved?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: I cannot imagine having an opinion on this

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: How many contenders would he improve? The Twins? The Twins apparently aren’t contenders anymore.

10:41
CamdenWarehouse: The Rays have already made 3 moderately sized trades and 2 small ones.  Is this the most active of a deadline in Tampa Bay history?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Certainly the most active one where they’re buying

10:42
Steeb: cheapest starter to acquire — lynn, straily, or darvish?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Lynn, easily

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Darvish is way better, and Straily has way more team control

10:42
PTBNL: Are you thinking that the low correlation between 2016 and 2017 hitters is a result of the potential change in the ball? Or just random noise at this point?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it would be about the ball. I think it would be either randomness, or some kind of response to the availability of information

10:43
Bryan: If you’re Nationals how concerned are you at the catcher position?¬†¬†When the lineup is all healthy, there’s no issue stashing Wieters¬†¬†in the 8 spot.¬†¬†But with Turner, Eaton and Werth all out, it’s a glaring weakness.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: They’d be an interesting fit for Alex Avila

10:43
larry: odds that sonny gray stays put in oakland until the offseason?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: 2%

10:43
PTBNL: Do the Cubs have the assets to make a move for Gray? I’m sure they’d like to get a piece that they can control for a few more seasons with Arrieta on the way out.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:44
Erik: If you were a GM and made your deadline buy/sell decision based purely on FanGraphs’ playoff odds, where would you draw the line between buying and selling?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: There are degrees. There’s, say, buying Sonny Gray, and there’s buying Lucas Duda

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: It’s a much lower line when you’re talking about buying Lucas Duda

10:45
PTBNL: Do you think Duquette will come to his senses and start selling before the deadline? Or is he content to put O’s fans through a brutal post-Machado rebuild?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Well, partly, it’s about Angelos, not Duquette. But also, the most marketable player right now would be Zach Britton, and he doesn’t look 100%. I don’t know what you do with that

10:45
Jack: Thoughts on the value of “tanking”? Is the top overall pick really that much more valuable than the 10th pick?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:46
LegallyEagle: What is Addison Reed going to fetch? Top 100 prospect?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good prospect; non-elite prospect. Bottom of the top 100 would be in play

10:46
Ben: Andrelton Simmons is 5th in MLB in WAR. How sick is that?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Tired of people calling the Angels a one-player team

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, tired of it in the way where I don’t actually deeply care at all

10:47
Bo: By sending Swanson to AAA, aren’t the Braves basically giving his major league ABs to Brandon Phillips? Wouldn’t they be better served trading BP and letting Dansby work through at the major league level?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: That’s really more of an internal evaluation. I haven’t been around Swanson a bunch so I don’t know what he needs. If he seems like he needs a mental break, that’s what Triple-A is for

10:47
Pie: Don’t beat yourself up on those titles. ‘Lucas Duda is on the Rays now” was pure gold

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: It’s virtually impossible to sex up a short article about the Rays getting Lucas Duda

10:48
Micah: Twins trading for Jaime Garcia and then immediately putting him back on the market: Crazy? Or potentially crazy smart? Why?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: See above. Their circumstances have legitimately changed in the time since. It’s unfortunate, but it’s their reality

10:48
Babe Lincoln: Will the Mets have enough for a better-than-mediocre reload next year?¬†¬†So many question marks….

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: You figure they should have at least a little better injury luck. Still a good team in there. The Phillies will be bad, the Marlins will be mediocre, the Braves will be mediocre — 2018 Mets have a real shot

10:50
Kristen: Should the Rangers be dangling Hamels in addition to Darvish right now?¬†¬†With Darvish certain to be moved and TEX’s farm system barren, TEX might as well go into full rebuild mode and load up on as many prospects as they can at the deadline.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: No one would be buying Hamels right now with his numbers in the tank. I think the Rangers are focused on a 2018 regroup of sorts, so it makes sense to only deal rentals

10:51
PTBNL: Which bullpen guy on the market makes the most sense for Red Sox? Addison Reed? Kintzler?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I could see them as a player for Hand if they want an alternative to SP sweepstakes

10:51
Jack: Could any teams be interested in the White Sox’ starters like Holland, Gonzalez, or Shields?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:52
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Re: Khris Davis – I had a third degree A/C joint separation in my throwing arm and even in my company softball league have turned into something of a right-handed Johnny Damon out there. I can swing the bat without any issues with gap power, but throwing the ball puts a lot of stress on the scar tissue that has replaced two tendons in my shoulder. Not saying that is the same injury, but just a possible explanation.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you Ray Liotta!

10:52
Ben: The Yankees are one of eight teams to whom Jeff Samardzija cannot block a trade. A Belt/Shark package makes sense as a Gray/Alonso alternative, no? Esp. if the Giants take on some of their salaries.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, but they’d still prefer Gray/Alonso pretty strongly

10:53
GERB: Considering Kershaw’s injusry, if you have to pick 1 starter to have on your team ROS, who would you pick? Klub, Sale, Sherz, Other?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Sale is the second-best pitcher in baseball

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Current No. 1 by default

10:53
Travis: Jeff, what would you do if you were Brewers management?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Minor improvements. Stuff like the Swarzak get. I’d be less about Gray than I would’ve been a couple weeks ago. Rays-style deadline management

10:54
CubFan: Do you think Treinen will stick as Oakland’s new closer?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: for about a week and a half

10:54
Drew: What are your thoughts on Dipoto’s seemingly obsessive prioritization of control/depth/floor > upside?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: In theory, I support the idea that upside is overrated and quite difficult to project

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone is out there searching for upside. Unranked prospect Jose Altuve leads all AL position players in WAR

10:55
Charlie: Yonder Alonso-Danny Valencia platoon of A’s castoffs makes a whole lot of sense for the Mariners right?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Alonso makes way more sense for the Yankees

10:56
Connor : What do you think will be the WS matchup this year?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Hell with it, right now I’ll say Yankees/Dodgers

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: But now I’ll immediately contradict myself and say Indians/Dodgers

10:56
CubFan: Is Price’s new elbow problems more of a yellow or red flag?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Dark, dark red

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: I guess the kind of red probably doesn’t matter

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: So, ordinary red

10:57
David: At what point will the sample size allow us to say Chris Taylor has reinvented himself ala Justin Turner?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see what’s happening when his BABIP isn’t .427

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Taylor is better, but he’s not an MVP

10:58
RyanLewis: Trout still may win the MVP too!  Never count him out

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I will go ahead and count him out

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: He missed too much time to end up with a massive WAR advantage, and the Angels aren’t good again

10:58
PTBNL: The White Sox have acquired 6 top-60 prospects (Moncada, Jimenez, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito, Rutherford) in just under a year. Have we ever seen a team acquire this much young, high-ceiling talent that quickly?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t recall anyone doing it, but I also can’t recall anyone shopping three pieces as valuable as Sale, Quintana, and Eaton

10:59
Jay: Will the Padres get the Andrew Miller package they’re hoping for, or will they have to back off? Would you prefer that kind of package for Hand or a package of 2 top-10 (but non top-5) prospects for Justin Wilson?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: The Padres won’t get a Miller package for Hand, because Hand is worse, but they could and should get a haul nevertheless

10:59
PTBNL: Who’s your favorite pitcher to watch right now? I love Sale and Scherzer for the combination of nasty stuff and bulldog demeanor.

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Paxton, because bias

11:00
Johnny5alive: Did sandy slow play a little too much? Most of the teams mets players were linked to made other deals, and I imagine he he’s running low on options to move the likes of Cabrera, etc

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: The only guy who’d be in real demand is Reed

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll move Reed

11:00
GOMS: Do you think the Mariners should trade for Gray?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Not really

11:01
Jack: Does Haniger have appreciably higher trade value than Gamel? If so, why?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Theoretically better power and discipline. But things have been weird since Haniger got hurt

11:01
Matt: Do the Dodgers need a Darvish or Gray?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: No

11:01
Porcho Villa: Re: SEA-TB trade: what are the implications for TB’s rotation? Are they banking on replacing Ramirez with someone like DeLeon or Honeywell (which could potentially be an upgrade)?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

11:02
CubFan: If your Theo why the interest in Verlander who is owed a king’s ransom for the next few years and is past his prime? Seems like moneybetter spent on someone like Gray or Straily.

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Verlander would cost less to get, the Tigers would probably pay him down somewhat, and the stuff is still there, suggesting Verlander could figure it out at any moment

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: He’s been good his last two starts, throwing a lot of strikes

11:03
Tom: Is Scooter a 35HR guy now?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: In this environment Jose Peraza could probably hit 35 home runs

11:03
peter: why do the fangraph depth chart war numbers look so low?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Rest-of-season projections. Not much season left

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, I believe, and until then, be well and have great days

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Next week I imagine I’ll see some of you in Boston. Hooray!

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/28/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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White Jar
Member
White Jar

Re: Travis Shaw’s success. You mention that moving to a worse league may have helped. Can you explain your reasoning for calling the NL a worse league?

Your response got me to thinking (never a good thing) and I came up with what I’m sure is a stupid way to decide which league is better. Total WAR! I know, stupid for a million different reasons. But for what it’s worth…

NL: 315.7
AL: 310.6

AL is worse. Sorry.

Psychic... Powerless...
Member
Psychic... Powerless...

Looking at interleague winning percentages tells a much different story.

John Autin
Member
Member
John Autin

AL has won interleague for 13 straight years. Combined W% since 2005 is .548, which equates to a season of 89-73. If one team finished 16 games ahead of another, year after year, would you doubt which was better?

The NL’s .452 interleague mark since 2005 is significantly worse than any team’s overall W% in that span. Every NL team except the Mets(?) is under .500 in interleague play in that span.

Really, the evidence is just overwhelming, if you want to see it.