Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/30/13

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys and welcome to this chat

9:03	Comment From JEB Gasp…are you actually, on time?!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: lol no

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s talk about baseball and the trade deadline!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s not talk about fantasy baseball

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: And if you ask me for a ROS projection, and I tell you to go to FanGraphs, it’s because they have better ROS projections than my human brain does

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Some of the time, I will disagree with the ROS projections. Most of the time, the numbers will be smarter than I am

9:04	Comment From Ryan Dylan Bundy for Jose Bautista–who hangs up?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Toronto.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Bundy isn’t even pitching!

9:04	Comment From Anon21 Do you expect Brandon Beachy to be an above-average starting pitcher this season?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: By a little bit

9:04	Comment From The Boss C’mon Jeff. Let’s go.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hey David

9:05	Comment From zack What was your reaction when you heard that the Mariners were considering being buyers at the trade deadline?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Half “yeah that sounds like them,” half “this is probably a bullshit report”

9:06

Comment From 2ndHS
I can be a bit of a homer sometimes, but I really don’t understand why I haven’t heard more trade rumors surrounding Kyle Lohse. I get that he’s 34 and signed through his age 36 season, but he’s been pretty darn good. Do you think it’s because the Brewers want too much for him, or is it more that teams just aren’t interested in what he brings to the game?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/22901849/lohse-more-popular-than-gallardo-but-is-he-available

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: I think the perception exists that Lohse isn’t a “difference-maker”. It was made pretty apparent over the winter how he’s perceived by the broader market, and even though now he’s succeeded without Yadier Molina, he’s still not a highly desirable piece, and teams probably don’t like the idea of being committed to him into his later 30s. I am sure there’s been talk but Lohse wasn’t in high demand a few months ago so he’s probably not in high demand now

9:08	Comment From Guest If Joe Mauer quit baseball, would he be a hall of famer?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, if he did it in six or seven years

9:08	Comment From Alex When asked RoS questions, you often point to the fangraphs projections. Has there been a notable instance where you vastly disagreed with those projections?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Usually I’ll consider disagreements if there have been fundamental changes to a player, like a hitter or a pitcher who changes his mechanics. Or maybe a pitcher adds a pitch or gains/loses velocity. Even in those circumstances, the ROS projections are probably still pretty smart

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I remember I wanted to disagree with the Michael Saunders and Franklin Gutierrez projections. Whoopsadoodle

9:10	Comment From Chris Whats going on with Gio all i heard is he took legal supplements will he be suspended?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t seem like it

9:10	Comment From zack If the Marlins offered Stanton 7 years/110 million would he take it?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine so. There must exist some point at which Stanton would consider sticking around, but he knows if he doesn’t sign with Miami he’s gone to a contender. All he needs to do is not get hurt or struggle, and he has more than enough confidence in his own talents.

9:12	Comment From Doug UGHHHHHH. Woke up today and realized I’m a Blue Jays fan! FML!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: You have your physical health

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: I assume that you have your physical health

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: People love you

9:12	Comment From JEB Do you think giving A Rod a lifetime ban would be a good idea or a bad idea? Do you think it may scare some players into using PED’s less?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: It kind of depends on all the evidence they have against him, and I’m only privy to the rumors and whispers. Realistically, a ban through 2014 would effectively be a lifetime ban, in that what would be left of Rodriguez afterwards would be awful, probably. I don’t think it would scare people into not using PEDs — it might scare people into not trying to interfere with a major MLB investigation. Word is Rodriguez has done a lot more than just put chemicals in his body

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: This is a unique situation that isn’t going to be like any other situations

9:15	Comment From Ryan If you were the Red Sox, what would you spend on Cliff Lee in terms of dollars/prospects?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I’d pay one steep price, but not two. I’d either take on all the money and pay fairly lightly otherwise, or I’d give up a lot of talent in exchange for not taking on so much of the money

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: But it won’t surprise you to learn I basically agree with Dave’s sentiments on the matter

9:17	Comment From Milhouse As a Mariner’s expert, can you inform me more on Stefan Romero? Is he a guy who will sneak up on the league?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=romero003ste

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=catric001vin

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Romero’s coming up on 25, he doesn’t have a set or great defensive position, and he doesn’t have a bat that’ll play anywhere. He’s looking like he’ll maybe be a bench player

9:18	Comment From GSon Is John Mozielak & the cardinals going to do anything ?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Probably something

9:19	Comment From Alex Who do you think will be in the mets rotation at the beginning of next season?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably going to look very familiar

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Wheeler’s status will probably be determined over the coming two months. So far he hasn’t thrown nearly enough strikes to be worth starting next year out of the gate

9:20	Comment From _David _ Would it be worth it for a team to use a roster spot on an Olympic sprinter who is solely a pinch runner and might be able to learn outfield and bunting at some point?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: You could probably construct your team in such a way that that kind of player would make sense, but I’d pass, and that’s without even acknowledging that Olympic sprinters don’t know anything about reading pitchers and situations

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: In the playoffs, it’d be more useful

9:21	Comment From Transient Gadfly I want one Oliver Perez. How much will it cost me?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Consider the Francisco Rodriguez/Jose Veras trade returns. Something in that neighborhood, and maybe a tiny bit higher

9:23	Comment From Izzy Who will lead the National League in WAR this year?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Actual WAR, David Wright. Real-life WAR, probably Yadier Molina

9:24	Comment From Dan Even though many consider some Central teams to be better, are the Braves the best bet for the NL pennant purely because they are almost guaranteed not to be in the play-in game?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: That seems sensible to me

9:25	Comment From Guest please tell me Amaro gets smart and trades Cliff Lee, as much as I love Lee this team needs prospect deberatly and are going nowhere

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Delmon Young has 263 plate appearances and he missed all of April

9:26	Comment From Alex Who is the biggest name (other than Peavy) who you think will be moving this trade deadline?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Alex Rios? The name value of this trade market sucks

9:27	Comment From Big Daddy Just how good is Wil Myers? Please put him in some comparative context with Trout, Harper, and Machado. Thanks!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: He is not as good as them but maybe close to Machado!

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Myers chooses power as his standout skill. Machado chooses unbelievable defense. Looking forward to seeing Myers’ performance over the final two months

9:28	Comment From JEB Lee getting dealt is now back on the table, what team do you think is silly enough to trade away 4 top prospects and take on his entire salary?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: 2002 Montreal Expos

9:29	Comment From Guest Rumors around Bundy being traded surfaced yesterday. If you ran the O’s, what would you trade Bundy for, if anyone?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Now is so not the time to try to make this happen.

9:30	Comment From DirtWoman Inquiring minds want to know: what is D. Bundy’s trade value right now?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Less than the Orioles would want. Teams, understandably, place a premium on guys who are performing and not rehabbing

9:30	Comment From zack What is your take on Jason Heywards season? Has it affected your longterm expectations?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Braves would be hard-pressed to have a more confusing outfield

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely, I think a little less of Heyward than I did several months ago

9:32	Comment From james what type of pkg would the jays get if the chose to deal rasmus?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: two pretty good prospects and a prospect you could talk yourself into believing might someday be pretty good

9:33	Comment From Guest Who will have the best career WAR between M’s rookies – Franklin, Miller or Zunino?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Zunino because of the position

9:34	Comment From zack If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it would MLB still blame AROD?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:34	Comment From NJQ Why did Mariners resign Felix and not trade him to improve their future?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Felix was and is a big part of the future. Even today, he’s 27

9:34	Comment From Kate What would it take to pry Stanton from Loria’s clutches?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: three more months

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: expect this to be the thing that dominates the winter meetings rumor mill

9:35	Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV What hurts the value of Nelson Cruz/Jhonny Peralta more in FA next year: Taking a suspension for the rest of the season and being labeled as “quitters”, or being suspended for the beginning of next season?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: The second one. The second one is a direct loss of value while under contract.

9:36	Comment From Dave The White Sox asked for Polanco or Taillon for Rios. Where would that rank on the all time bad trades list?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty bad. Also every team has asked for way too much in exchange for the players who haven’t been traded yet, which is why they haven’t been traded yet

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The trade deadline is the worst

9:36	Comment From GM, Manager, Player Participation Do you guys ever wonder if GMs, Managers and Players come on to your chats anonymously to get your input to help them make decisions or figure things out in terms of how they play, etc.?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I should certainly hope they don’t do that

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Do you know how little thought goes into an answer to a chat question? There are like hundreds of questions in the queue and we don’t have any time to think

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Many of them do read the FanGraphs front page

9:38	Comment From James Given that the Royals aren’t selling (as much as I want them to), who do you think they’ll get to play 2B and what do you think they’ll end up giving up?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Royals basically stand pat

9:38	Comment From Sonny Cheeba Now that the Mariners have all lefty everything, would they have been better off not moving the fence in?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Moving the fences in was long overdue, and that’s a permanent, long-term change. It’s about making the park more fair, making Seattle more appealing, and helping hitter psychology

9:39

Comment From Anon21
What do you think is the realistic single-season fWAR ceiling for Andrelton Simmons if he carried a 100 wRC+? (Assume perfect defensive measurement.) I saw Braves twitter last night suggesting he could be a legit MVP candidate which sounds nuts, but some analyses suggest he is cutting 20 points of BABIP off opponents basically singlehandedly.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Right now he has 150 career games, an 88 wRC+, and a 4.5 WAR. So bump that up a little bit. But his defense is only going to get worse over time, so there’s the unfortunate caveat

9:41	Comment From Alessandro Thoughts on Ken Rosenthal saying the Red Sox should give up Bogaerts for Cliff Lee?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Sufficiently controversial

9:41	Comment From zack Who would you rather keep longterm: Smoak or Montero?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Ugh probably Smoak. Neither is good but Montero is practically garbage

9:42	Comment From Ryan Should the Reds have serious concerns about their bullpen? Marshall and Broxton remain injured, and Chapman has been less dominant than in the past.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say serious concerns — their bullpen has been above average and Chapman is still striking out 40% of dudes. But I can see them adding a reliever, just like I can see any contender adding a reliever

9:44	Comment From fats the blue jays could realistically have three 5 WAR players. man their pitching is bad. this sucks

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers were terrible despite the outstanding Jean Segura, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, and Carlos Gomez. So

9:45	Comment From Zach Is a Mets 6-man rotation the best way to go about limiting Harvey and Wheeler’s innings?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if it’s the best way, but it’s a fine way. And it could also be temporary, depending on how things change and who gets hurt or struggles.

9:48	Comment From Trav Wilson to the Dodgers just seems… apropos

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: “What’s that? An available player with oodles of name value?”

9:48	Comment From peachesnnuts Walk off triple and the winning pitcher was on the team for like 3 hours beforehand, baseball is fun.

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome, Scott Downs. This isn’t what it’s usually like

9:50	Comment From Spencer Could the A’s potentially buy and sell? Perhaps sell Balfour so they can buy Gregerson and not skip a beat? Or are they actually honing in on this year’s window?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: If there are options out there, the A’s have thought about them. They certainly wouldn’t be afraid to both buy and sell, but I think they’re mostly looking to improve and take advantage of the 2013 window before going into the offseason and establishing a new and slightly different 2014 window

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not going to be a team who sacrifices long-term for short-term, but that won’t prevent them from exploring their opportunities

9:52	Comment From Guest are the Sox crazy for goin after Lee aren’t they still maybe a yr or 2 from the ws?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Why would they be a year or two from the World Series? Especially with Cliff Lee on them

9:52	Comment From Dave Pirates rebuilt from 2008-2012 by drafting well, developing well, and making smart trades. The Dodgers rebuild in 1 year by spending $300M, how is this fair exactly?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates are six games better than the Dodgers are

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: And we’ll see where the Dodgers are in a few years

9:53	Comment From Ryan With Jesse Crain getting traded, I was wondering– who has been the most successful player for his new team after a mid-season trade while on the DL?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of anyone else getting dealt while on the DL besides Jake Peavy. So, Jake Peavy

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure it’s happened, but Peavy’s the only one on the top of my head

9:53

Comment From Rear Naked Choke
Asked Enos this the other day and wanted your take. Why doesn’t baseball simply start some sort of service clock when a player signs a professional contract. Make the time period about what it is today(minor league years + arb years). Then teams could promote when they felt players could help them instead of someone like Will Myers spending half the season in minors. Seems like everyone would benefit, especially the fans.

9:55

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I have the time to completely and adequately think this through but I like the general concept. Obviously you’d probably need different service clocks for college picks and high-school picks, or maybe you wouldn’t and you’d just change the drafting equations. There have to be some unforeseen consequences here that I’m just not imagining but the concept, I support

9:56

Comment From Joe Nationals
Kevin Towers once was asked if there’s any GM in the league he refuses to make trades with. He said, “Only one. And I’ll name him. Jim Bowden. The guy’s an idiot. I won’t take his calls, and I don’t think many others do.” Do think it’s possible that GMs ice each other out like this? Do you think it was true with Towers and Bowden (point of fact, they did make one trade after this quote–Vinny Castilla for Brian Lawrence.)

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: I think some GMs definitely have complicated relationships that makes transactions more difficult/unlikely. This is one of the reasons why it’s important for an executive to have quality people skills. But ultimately what matters most is a guy’s roster, and if there’s something you really want from another team, you’ll suck it up and try to get it, no matter which GM is pulling the strings. I’d think of something like this as a hurdle

9:57	Comment From tylersnotes rank in order of how much you want to talk about these things: 1

9:57	Comment From peachesnnuts This report the Rangers inquired on McCann was strange to me. Offering RP help? I assume so but Atlanta would want much more than Joe Nathan.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: It’s an inquiry. Teams inquire about lots of guys. Everything that happens in the second half of July feels like news, but inquiries are inquiries and nothing happened there for a reason.

9:59	Comment From Tripp What are the odds Jesse Crain is closing out games for the Rays on Sept 1?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Super low. Rodney’s on a roll

9:59	Comment From JN What do you think of the Cubs’ plan to spend whatever they want on the international market even though it means they basically have to punt the next 2 years?