Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/8/16

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05
Bork: Hello, friend!

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to a baseball chat that feels kind of weird to conduct

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: But we will conduct it nevertheless!

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: For it is required of me!

9:06
Brett: Ok, Rich Hill was great last night. Do the A’s get a top 75 prospect for him?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Top 50, I should think. Now, there’s a lot of variation within said top 50, so, you know. But Hill comes with tremendous upside and with every passing start he’s reducing the perception of his risk. He’s pretty clearly for real; the only question is how long he can last

9:08
Minty: Now Bregman is back to playing SS. When do you think the SS/3B situation gets solved?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Well the easy answer is, in the majors, where Correa is entrenched

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: But I wouldn’t be surprised if this were just about Fresno already having Matt Duffy at third. The Astros want Bregman staying versatile anyway, so it’s not a bad thing

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Easier for Bregman to occupy the spot of Nolan Fontana and Danny Worth, instead of Matt Duffy and Colin Moran

9:11
Kevin: I was going to pester you to write about Aledmys Diaz but you beat me to it. Good on you.

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I know I just wrote about him at length but this has been an almost miraculous season. Aledmys Diaz, 143 wRC+? What on earth happened last July? This is one of those things we have trouble understanding due to limited media fluency in Spanish

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Granted, Diaz has pretty good command of English so maybe that’s the wrong point to make. But in any case, bizarre and incredible and sudden turnaround

9:15
Nathan: Is Matt Holliday just slumping or is this his big decline?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I know this is probably hard to believe but over the past month or month and a half, Holliday is damn near the big-league leader in average exit velocity. He continues to hit the crap out of the ball. He just hasn’t hit the ball to the right place. I think he’s okay and still obnoxiously consistent

9:16
Bork: Who should the Jays target? Starting pitching or relievers?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Some of this depends on how well they think Sanchez will hold up, but they should definitely be in the market for a reliever or two. I don’t think they need to bother with an ace — if they want a starter, they could settle for a filler type

9:17
Mike T.: Jeff, if we put all seriousness aside for now, how many Josh Donaldson Upper Deck rookie cards, plus Ryan Goins, would it take for the Jays to get Sonny Gray?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: More than there are in circulation

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: So they’d have to start printing their own counterfeits

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Thereby depressing the market…

9:18
PSM2f: Cubs have been struggling in all three phases the past few weeks. With hitting and defense, the talent says they should rebound. I think the real concern come October is the Bullpen and SP beyond Lester and Arietta. Do they move to bolster their Pitching staff? Is ATL a possible match? What do you think CHI would be willing to trade for a package of Teheran, Vizcaino ect..?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Funny thing about Vizcaino is he’s presenting tanking his own trade value. More walks than strikeouts over the past month+. Doubt the Cubs would be real interested

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: By and large, the Cubs are okay — they’re still the most complete team in either league. And the best team, too. But they’ll still be vigilant. I’d expect them to add a pretty good reliever, at least. And they’ll monitor the starting-pitcher market, even though I remain unconvinced they need the help

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of teams will check the starter market. As we all know, few quality starters will actually be out there

9:20
Owen: Rich Hill, Josh Reddick, and Sean Doolittle to the Red Sox would need a package headlined by ______________? At that cost, would the Sox do it?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Well Doolittle is on the DL with shoulder discomfort, so that kind of works a kink into the plans

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say it would begin with Kopech, but it wouldn’t come close to stopping there

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe — maybe — Devers

9:23
Deeds: Thoughts on Tulowitzki’s recent surge? Any faith he keeps this going?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Plenty of faith, based on the track record. Lately he’s cut his strikeouts in half from where they were earlier. I’d like to be given a good explanation for what happened last year, because we can’t just ignore it, but Tulowitzki has been so good over his career he deserves the benefit of the doubt

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: He remains a really good offensive shortstop. His defense is still there. The Jays are starting to see the best of him, finally

9:25
Blurp: Is it just me, or does the cost for getting two years of Andrew Miller at the going market rate seem too high?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: It’s unfair how good Miller is. Over the past three years, he’s allowed a .470 OPS. No signs of slowing down. He is just a reliever, but after what the Royals have done, the market will put a premium price tag on this kind of shutdown closer

9:27
James: Let’s say Rizzo offers Joe Ross and Trea Turner for Wil Myers. Does Preller take them back? Should he?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, you take that

9:28
Nick: Hi Jeff. Did you see that Cistuilli again included ol’ Max Schrock on his Fringe Five article today? He’s coming hard after your inflation-adjusted hundo-stack.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: He can pry it from my cold dead hands

9:29
Scott: Which NL Central team, not named the Cubs, next wins a World Series?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Cardinals, I guess, after they turn a couple 40th-round draft picks into MVPs

9:29
Guest: should the yankees just keep chapman and make a QO?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not in this market. Especially if they elect to hang on to Miller. Chapman would be the best around

9:30
Greg: What does a Teheran to Boston trade look like?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Devers+, but only if the Braves decide they do want to trade Teheran, which they confusingly might not

9:30
PL: Rich Hill hype train at full bore

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Legitimate and honest sentence written in 2016

9:31
greg: No question, just wanted to let you know I really enjoy your signoff at the end of these each week. Signifies to me that the weekend is upon us.

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t tell you how much I love having the Friday chat. I love you, Friday chat!

9:31
Hmm: Let’s get the Bregman questions out of the way. Home run #5 last night…in only 8 games. How long before he’s up?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Not too long, but what complicates things is that Luis Valbuena is hitting the shit out of the ball. I mean, at the end of the day, he’s still Luis Valbuena, but you’re not sitting Correa and you’re not sitting Altuve. Perhaps it’ll come down to A.J. Reed not seizing his current opportunity

9:33
mtsw: Two previously non-selling teams appear to have knocked themselves out of contention in the last couple weeks in the Rockies and Diamondbacks. Do they have any pieces that it would make sense for them to move right now?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Greinke would be the fascinating one, the landscape-altering one, but that would probably be too bold and too complicated to pull off in July

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: The Rockies could and should pitch Carlos Gonzalez as this year’s Yoenis Cespedes. The Diamondbacks should sell off a chunk of the bullpen. It’s unfortunate for the Rockies that Jake McGee isn’t as sellable as he should’ve been

9:38
Josh: What is your take on Boras blasting Stearns for sending down Davies? The move was purely strategic, but the lost salary isn’t nothing.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Boras, of course, represents Davies, so that explains that. It’s not like the Brewers are saving money — the money they would’ve paid Davies, they’ll now just pay Andy Wilkins. And Boras doesn’t represent Andy Wilkins! But I do kind of get where he’s coming from — Davies *has* been good, and let’s face it, the Brewers aren’t really playing for anything. Wilkins isn’t a prospect. They’re 10 games under .500. How important is that extra bench bat, really?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: If the Brewers knew this was going to happen, perhaps they would’ve reconsidered. But also, I’d say this is more of a minor annoyance than a long-term complication. Boras has turned it into a headline but the story will blow over if it hasn’t already. Davies will be back, and he’s going to make some millions of dollars. He won’t lose too much sleep over a lost $20,000 or whatever it is

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Remember when the Angels renewed Mike Trout’s contract for just barely over the league minimum? That didn’t stop Trout from agreeing to a sweet long-term deal with the organization shortly thereafter

9:43
Ronnie: Is consistently taking advantage of mistake pitches the number one factor which drives most batters’ ultimate success or failure?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if it’s number one, but yeah, it’s way up there. When the pitcher executes how he wants to execute, then most of the time, even the best hitters are shit out of luck. A quality breaking ball or something just below the zone is going to get cut on and missed, or weakly hit. So a lot really does come down to being prepared to take advantage of location lapses

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers miss, most of the time. If they didn’t, there wouldn’t be any runs. Sometimes you hear a guy described as a mistake hitter. Almost all of them are mistake hitters

9:45
Guest: After you die, would you rather be completely forgotten or hatefully remembered?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine caring, on account of I’m dead and it’s not my problem

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: But the latter presumably comes with a life of being hatefully considered, so, I’d like to not have that. Who wants to be hated?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: For that matter, who hates?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: How does somebody hate?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: It’s such a foreign concept to me.

9:47
BJOGC: Jeff, how absurd is it that the NFL has teams that are perpetually awful? They have so many checks and balances. They have a salary cap, a draft system that rewards bad teams with players that can literally turn a franchise around overnight, basically no international signings of any consequence, it’s insanely easy to keep your own players and not lose them to FA, plus they don’t really have to scout high school because the college system is so competitive that all the really bad players are weeded out already. How can teams like the Lions or Jaguars continue to be bad?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: I know next to nothing about football but my assumption is that there continue to be a few organizations run by absolute idiots. It’s not a sport that calls out for progressiveness or open-mindedness. It’s like a whole sport of the absolute worst of regressive baseball coaching. Not every team would be like that, but some would be, and then if you fail to, say, identify and develop a quarterback, welp, good luck winning six games

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Stubbornness leads to failure. But in football, stubbornness might be considered a virtue. Oh no!

9:49
Seattilite: Will the M’s make the playoffs before 2020? Or are they going to set a new franchise record for playoff drought? Of course the first drought started with an expansion team and this one started with a 116 win team.

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Think of it this way: if the Mariners fall short in 2016, that’ll be 15 consecutive seasons without making the playoffs

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates went 20

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: The Royals went 28

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: The Blue Jays went 21

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: It can be so much worse.

9:53
Hmm: Josh Bell got the call, what cam we realistically expect from him? Hit tool looks solid but will the power be there?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Looks to me like he’s hit for better power than ever this season. A lot of that could be wrapped up in improvements in his right-handed swing. Even last year, he was pretty dominant from the left side

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Even if he’s underpowered, hey, it’s John Jaso! But with more upside than John Jaso.

9:57
Paul: Enjoyed yours and Dave’s articles on the Blue Jays this week Jeff, Thank you. What would a Donaldson extension look like and should the Jays lock him down now especially considering the possible departures of Bautista and Encarnacion.

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard, because Donaldson is an unusual case, and he’s still 2.5 years away from free agency. And, you know, he’s 30 years old. But this looks like it’ll make consecutive MVP-caliber seasons. At that point, you’re not offering him the Miguel Cabrera contract, but maybe 75-80% of the Cabrera contract. It’s up to you to decide whether that’s something you’d be comfortable with

9:59
Tom Steele, in Dallas: The world can be a terrible and heartbreaking place. Thank you for being a source of joy.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I know it’s not true but this week feels worse than ever. It’s probably just an overall additive effect but it’s been a while since I’ve been left feeling this empty

10:01
Josh: How did the Brewers do in the Hill trade? Does Willerson intrigue you at all?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Let me be very honest with you: After this, right now, I will probably never again think about this most recent Aaron Hill trade.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: The Brewers obviously aren’t averse to giving chances to pitchers with non-traditional backgrounds. That’s where Wilkerson comes in. He throws strikes — good for him. Has more long-term promise than Hill does. But he seems like a guy who gets one brief cup of coffee

10:05
Akfishsticks: When should I start to worry about the Cubs?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: If this keeps up for another two weeks

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Even with this slump, though, they still have the best run differential in baseball by 51

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Even the 1998 Yankees at one point had a stretch where they went 12-16

10:10
Adam: How is Luis Perdomo progressing for a guy who hadn’t pitched above High-A before this season?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Do you have any idea how confusing it is that this is the Padres’ second Luis Perdomo in seven years

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: What I like is that he has three pitches and the safety of a groundball inclination. So already he’s going to limit homers, but even from the start he was above-average at getting swings out of the zone. And, he avoids contact!

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t given a great deal of thought to Luis Perdomo, of course. But as I examine him, I see that he could be a real No. 4 or a swingman or something. Decent asset

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Just another success in the Rule 5 draft!

10:13
Adam: Is it time to stop doubting Drew Pomeranz and hop on the bandwagon?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: You’re already late

10:14
Q-Ball: Jeff, you say the Cubs shouldn’t panic, but shouldn’t they panic? Since the 25-6 start, they are now a sub .500 club, over 54 games, which isn’t a small sample. Thoughts?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: In every month but July, they’ve posted a winning record while dramatically outscoring the opposition. In July, they’ve played seven games

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Or to look at it a different way, when’s the last time panicking led to a positive solution to a problem?

10:15
Adam: A scout apparently said the Rangers had 16 legitimate prospects in their farm system. How uncommon is that?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I think this came up last week. It’s one of those statements that doesn’t really mean anything. What’s legitimate? Legitimate in whose eyes? What’s the context? What’s suggested is that the Rangers’ system has depth, but that’s not new information.

10:17
Daniel: So is this Max Kepler getting comfortable and breaking out or just a blip?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to see him homer against an actual good pitcher

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry about that, Internet dropped

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: And for Kepler, also, since coming back up, he’s swung at balls 37% of the time while going after strikes just 58% of the time. That doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence — that’s Kevin Pillar-esque

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: But, you know, anything good going on with the Twins should be celebrated. It’s not like Kepler is a bust

10:20
Adam: Should stolen bases be included in slugging percentage?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: no

10:21
Mike: What are the Dodgers going to do with all of their excess starting pitching? I count between 14-16 guys potentially competing for the 4 slots in the rotation behind Kershaw.

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Well, as you might have noticed, they have this thing were like half those guys are hurt at any given time

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: So they’ll never all be healthy. Also, they’re not all good, and many can shift to the bullpen, where the Dodgers need reinforcements. Come the offseason, there’ll be some roster shuffling

10:22
Young Jeezy: Thoughts on Adrian Gonzalez? BA is there but no power? A bad first half? A lost season? Or the beginning of the end (all it terms of power that is)?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Bad back. It’s pretty clearly affected him. Even if it doesn’t hurt anymore, which he claims, it’s not hard to see how that would change one’s swing mechanics

10:22
Guest: has anyone thought of the nickname “K-PAX” for James Paxton yet?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:24
Adam: Why don’t the Rays get more grief for trading Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Steven Souza?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Back then Ross didn’t seem like much of a prospect, and the Rays also got Rene Rivera, Jake Bauers, etc

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: But now, in hindsight, yeah, whoops

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: The Rays can’t really afford to screw up like that very much

10:25
Andrew: What the hell is wrong with the Mariners?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: All the pitchers got hurt

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Starters got hurt or couldn’t go deep, which taxed and ultimately exposed the bullpen

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: The offense has stayed good but the rotation has been something of a disaster for a couple of months

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Leonys Martin, also, hasn’t been himself since getting hurt

10:27
otakon: who’s the first big name to get moved in your opinion?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Now that I think about it I could see Rich Hill going at any minute

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: The A’s swung that Samardzija trade on July 5. They’re 37-49.

10:29
mike sixel: Yes, it does seem weird. Everything seems off today….hiking Hamilton Mountain tomorrow…tell me it isn’t too hard! On the baseball side, if the Twins field a basically different lineup the rest of the way, and do well…are they still a 90+ loss team that can’t make the playoffs, or are they a different team, if you know what I mean?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton’s not hard. Some steep bits and I don’t know what the views will be like with the weather, but about halfway up there are some beautiful cliffs, and about a fifth of the way up there’s a spectacular hidden waterfall

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: As for the baseball side, I don’t know what you mean!

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: The Twins are bad!

10:30
Adam: Pomeranz is a younger, cheaper version of Rich Hill with more years of control. Why isn’t there more buzz around him?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: General distrust, but it’s going away

10:31
Steve: Hey Jeff – hope all is well, why is there not a defensive leverage stat to measure a fielders performance in high leverage situations, and do you see any use in this statistic to measure a fielders worth?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: In a perfect world it would be fun to have, but even our general defensive numbers these days leave us all wanting.

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: And we should assume, based on everything else we know, that there aren’t clutch or un-clutch defenders

10:32
Patrick: Rangers look like their peripherals are catching up to them. What can they do to fix it? Trade? Internal roster changes? PANIC AND START OVER?!

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: They need to not have Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez in the starting rotation. Yu Darvish is almost back, again, and that should be big. And they’ll look for another starter

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Even with the slump, they’re up 6.5 games. Strong position

10:34
j6takish: Jeff I went on my first hike over the holiday weekend. Pictured Rocks national lakeshore. It was great. What are some underrated items I should bring with me next time?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I always like having a pair of binoculars and a detailed area topographical map

10:35
Matt: Should the Cubs be willing to give up Schwarber for Andrew Miller?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say *probably* not, but it’s close enough that I could be convinced

10:35
Spooks: Is the all-star break arbitrary when looking at season splits, or have there been strong enough correlations with pre and post?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: It’s mostly arbitrary but a decent starting point for any investigation

10:36
Logan: Which of the contenders need to go out and get a good SP?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Most of them

10:36
Drew: Reddick, Hill, Valencia, potentially Gray, Crisp and Madson all seem like prime trade chips. Who goes and who stays?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Hill’s as good as gone. Reddick is 50/50 — lots of outfielders out there on the table.

10:37
Sammy Meatballs is dilusional: What do you make of Didi G? Product of his ballpark? He was never projected to hit this well.

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: His contact skills have improved, which is legitimate, but the power, yeah, a lot of that is the home environment

10:38
Chris: I know his BABIP is going to regress, but Tyler Naquin is hitting for more power than any projection system expected. Time to start believing in him as an above average hitter?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I can see him as a 110-120 wRC+ type. He’s very obviously overachieving but for him to suddenly develop this kind of power — that’s real progress

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Indians’ need in the outfield is overstated

10:40
Drew: Jeff, Why does Bruce have so much more trade value than Upton Jr? Could the Padres trade Melvin without having to eat any of his contract?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Bruce costs less, and his 2017 salary is optional, and he’s a better hitter, and some people believe his defense is better than the numbers say

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: But Upton is back on the radar. The Padres would probably still need to eat something, but not everything. He’s got value again

10:41
NYTT: It’s going to make me incredibly sad when the Braves don’t sell high on Teheran, he regresses to a #3 next year and the Braves are then trying to find/ wait for more bats and top of the rotation starters. Is this what is most likely to happen?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: I just have to think they come to their senses and move Teheran in the coming weeks. I don’t get the argument for keeping him

10:42
Wardo: Chris Sale is running a career-low BABIP and a career-low K rate. All of the projections have his Ks coming back up. What if this is the new Chris Sale… is his 3.58 xFIP a little more indicative of what to expect going forward?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Sale hasn’t lost his old ability level. He’s doing this on purpose, to try to be more efficient with a better defense behind him. I suspect that, if he starts to wobble, he’ll just go back to being overwhelming

10:43
Inquiring Minds Want to Know: Who under 20 is the next Trout??

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Nobody

10:43
Mark: Is there a more depressing team in all of pro sports than the Seattle Mariners?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:44
Erik: When (in terms of playoff odds) would you say a team should go from buyers to sellers at the deadline?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on individual circumstances, but if you’re below 10-15%, you shouldn’t fool yourself

10:44
Frowny McSadface: It’s July 8th, and Bud Norris (whose not even on the team anymore) still ranks 4th among Braves hitters with a 104 wRC+ and 8th with 0.3 batting WAR. No question, just depressed.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: On the plus side, Erick Aybar isn’t playing like literally you anymore

10:45
FireDrayton: Re: Bregman at SS in Fresno, Luhnow said a couple days ago it was so that he could get comfortable at the plate at a new level without having to worry about a new position at the same time. Luhnow acknowledged that now that Bregman is clearly OK at the plate, they’ll start moving him around.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: There we go. Everything checks out. Bregman rocks

10:45
Trea Turner: Any chance I get back to the show this year before September Call-ups?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Today!

10:46
Rick C: With Vizcaino’s recent struggles, is his trade value down enough that it might make more sense for the Braves to keep him at this point?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Well, they shouldn’t trade him today. But they still have a few weeks and he misses enough bats that it shouldn’t be too hard for him to rebuild value fast

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: I was looking at him yesterday. Didn’t write anything, but I couldn’t find a glaring problem. Obviously, he hasn’t thrown strikes, but his delivery looks the same. The stuff is the same. Hitters have laid off more would-be balls but I think that’s more of a blip than a concern

10:48
Erik: Will Mike Trout ever agitate for a trade, or is he just too nice? Hard to remember any play this good on a team this hopeless for this long in any sport, ever.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I think players start getting deeply frustrated around 30-31. That’s when they realize they don’t have all that much time left. Trout has time left

10:49
Baltimoron: People around these parts seem to think trading Trumbo can fetch a #3-4 starter. That seems crazy. What kind of value (if any) does Trumbo actually have as a one-dimensional bat rental?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Not much. He’s still Mark Trumbo. And the Orioles are in first place!

10:51
Malcolm: Pitch me a Danny Valencia trade you like for both sides.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Valencia and Hill to the Mets for Conforto and the required dump of Jose Reyes

10:52
Guest: My biggest fear is growing old. What’s yours?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: deterioration of mental acuity

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: and spiders that jump

10:53
James: The Matt Carpenter injury is an enormous blow to the Cardinals… if they become sellers, what kind of return could they get for guys like Jaime Garcia, Matt Adams, Jhonny Peralta, and Brandon Moss (assuming health for the latter two)?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t accept the premise that the Cardinals would ever sell

10:54
Sean P: Do you think Javy Baez might end up being a better player than Addison Russell?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: I’d put the odds at maybe 30%. I much prefer Russell’s plate approach and shortstop defense

10:55
Alex: Hey Jeff. So Paxton has 2 strikeouts in each of his last two outings… any cause for concern? Is he going back to being the old Paxton, a guy with tantalizing talent, but no results?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: He’s still throwing strikes and he’s still throwing with crazy velocity, so he’s neat. Not a shock he struggled to get strikeouts against the Royals. He still is searching for reliable secondary stuff

10:56
Erik: Do GMs and other executives have strong enough tendencies that it should affect our prediction of what they’ll do at the deadline? Or do they all act more or less similarly and “rationally”? Would we ever say, for example, “The Cubs should do x, but they have Theo Epstein, who always does y, so they’ll do y”?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: I think you can have general senses. Dombrowski has a style. The A’s have a style. The Indians have a style. But mostly, executives will act on the information they have to try to make the best moves possible

10:58
A. Reitz: As a Cardinals fan, everyone know about A. Diaz 4 years ago when he signed (understandable if some bloggers didn’t). When he came over, he hadn’t played in almost 18 months, it took him some time to adjust. Something clicked after he was DFA’d and he absolutely raked from that point on and hasn’t stopped. To say, it makes no sense, means you haven’t tracked his career. Sure, he can’t be THIS good, but he’s a damn fine player and anyone that says it might be luck…well.

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Overnight, Diaz went from bad hitter to good hitter. It’s legitimately stunning. His very organization DFAd him in favor of Dan Johnson.

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: That “something” you refer to — that’s exactly the miracle

10:59
Guest: Some people view morality as something made up by inferior people to hold back superior people. Is there anything to this?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: We’re born with an innate sense of morality. The explicit rules are made up, and they vary, but the idea itself is natural

11:00
Dan: Given your recent article on how the ever amazing Mike Trout continues to be amazing, do you have any insight into who could be potentially passing him from a 5 year forceast standpoint that Dave Cameron teased earlier this week?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: My best guess is Corey Seager, since he’s 22 and age is hugely important for these things

11:01
Tom: Could Swihart or Vasquez be a major chip in a trade for Rich Hill?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not Vasquez

11:02
A. Reitz: If Sanchez (Easily their best SP) is going to the pen, why would the Jays need 2 bullpen arms and not 2 SP? Sanchez and Osuna is one of the best 8/9 combo’s in baseball. Sanchez could easily go 2 innings too.

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not clear yet what they’ll do with Sanchez, and it’s also not clear yet whether they trust Brett Cecil as the lefty again

11:03
Dog: I get a strange feeling that the Rangers are going to trade Gallo. If they did, who would some be some players they would look to get back? Gray? Chapman AND Miller? Teheran?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: All those guys would be in play. Gallo would be a hell of a trade piece

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Lately in Triple-A, the strikeouts have come back, so the early progress seemingly hasn’t stuck, but he still has the 80-grade skill, in the most important category

11:05
Erik: Is half a year of Jeremy Hellickson worth about an organization’s 20th best prospect?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: 15th!

11:05
Don: “Scott Boras tells ESPN that Matt Harvey will undergo surgery in St. Louis with Dr. Thompson” from @AdamRubinESPN

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Mets really showing off the peaks and valleys of building around ace starting pitchers, the last couple years

11:06
Lunch: So the Cubs and braves did the whole empty the dugouts thing last night, largely cause the braves hit three Cubs batters. The thing is, it seemed pretty obvious that the braves hit the Cubs cause they are bad at pitching. Like, it wasn’t intentional, just crappy command. Can you get out of a fight by saying “sorry bro, turns out we just suck at this?”

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: It helps you de-escalate, but people still will initially respond poorly to getting hit by things

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: If someone sideswipes you on the road, you’re going to be pissed off at first, even assuming it’s just an accident.

11:07
Gest: What’s your outlook on shoemaker continuing to be a good pitcher the rest of 2016?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: I like him to get strikeouts and limit walks, but I feel like he’ll still be unusually homer-prone

11:08
Guest: Is andrew miller a good fit for the Giants?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, although I doubt they pay what it would take

11:08
Jay Bruce: How did you vote on your poll about my defense?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: That was August

11:08
Dan: Thoughts on Jose Reyes?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Different from what they probably would’ve been five years ago. I get that he’s been punished. I get that he deserves a chance again. But a standing ovation? It’s gross. My opinion is it’s gross.

11:11
uruguayan: Did his performance in the 2013 postseason make Sonny Gray the most overrated pitcher in baseball?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: It might’ve been James Shields, at least until a few weeks ago

11:11
Yanksfan : Andrew Miller for Joey Gallo. Who wins that trade? Does it happen? Who says no?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: The Yankees would be thrilled

11:12
Alex: What is your next move if you’re Coppy?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Trade Teheran tomorrow

11:12
greg: I saw Dave answer a question about a 7 game series the other day and refer to it as a “short series.” Is there a long series? I’ve always wondered where this term came from.

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: It’s more that all series are short, but if you just say series, the “short” part might not be sufficiently implied

11:13
Paul: Do you think that TV analysts should bring more advance statistics into their broadcasts. The argument has always been that it wouldn’t interest casual fans but the BBC’s tennis coverage (which is about as conservative as you can get!) has been using more statistics than ever and is watched by far more casual fans that would watch a local baseball broadcast.

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t need to be dramatic. Viewers just want to see the action and hear the occasional story

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: But I love that the Diamondbacks have featured win expectancy. That one’s great. And I like seeing broadcasts that talk about pitcher repertoires

11:14
Maud: how do handle talking baseball with harold reynolds types who think OPS is the end all be all in baseball stats?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: We have more in common than we don’t. I don’t try to get into arguments

11:14
Brett: Sonny Gray to the Red Sox for Benintendi/Espinoza/Raudes. Who says no?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Probably the Red Sox

11:14
Joe: If the Yankees don’t sell Miller who do the Cubs trade for?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Will Smith if he looks healthy

11:17
Mark: Why does spicy food only come from countries that have hot climates? Shouldn’t people in colder countries want hot food?

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: Spicy foods cause a variety of physical reactions, including sweat, which helps cool your body down

11:17
Greg: Harvey needs surgery. Where do you think the Mets go to replace his innings? I personally do not like Verrett

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: Suddenly the Mets will turn to the market. Rich Hill makes sense

11:17
Erik: Best prospect to be dealt this deadline?

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Devers?

11:18
Cheeseball: It seems to me that a lot more analysis is put into trying to understand breakouts and improvements than trying to understand slumps and declines. Is that because slumps and declines are generally easy to understand, of just because they’re a bummer to think about? Also, Tulo4ever.

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: Some of it is about the negativity. Breakouts are “happier”, and we’re drawn to that

11:19
Nayvadius Wilburn: Are there any teams which are within 2-3 moves of matching the Cubs for completeness of roster?

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: Well, 2-3 moves is a lot of moves. The Giants could get there with 2-3 moves. Dodgers and Nationals and Blue Jays, too

11:20
Chopper Dave: Can the Orioles reasonably acquire anything better than a 3/4 pitcher that doesn’t really help them?

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, but a 3/4 pitcher would help them

11:20
Erik: If you knew, with absolute magical confidence, that a pitcher would be a perfectly typical 5th starter for the entirety of his years of team control, never better, never worse, and never injured, where would you draft him?

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: Fourth or fifth round

11:21
Dancing Dan Mcgrewww: if you had to have a player with a .900 OPS and a .250 average, how would you split up the OBP and SlUG? the two extremes would be 250/250/650 and 250/650/250

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: The latter would actually be the most valuable

11:21
Dr Johnny Fever: Any chance the Phils move Hellickson before the deadline

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: Extremely high chance

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: Like it’s over 100%

11:21
Jim Lonborg: You’re right about pitching mistakes, but there are some guys who can hit good curveballs. The best I ever saw was Manny.

11:22
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the absolute best are able to somewhat consistently punish good pitches. Trout does it all the time. But it’s a rare skill

11:22
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:23
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/8/16 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

newest oldest most voted
tz
Member

Friday Fun Fact:

If you treat the batters who have faced Chris Young thus far in 2016 as a single batter, that batter would lead the majors in slugging (.657) and OPS (1.016) and be tied for the lead in HR (26).

And with 26 HR in just 242 AB, that batter would have on track to be the first hitter with more than one HR per 10 AB since Barry Bonds in 2004. For that matter, no pitcher with at least 30 IP had ever allowed more than one HR per 10 AB until Young this year (60 IP so far).

cornflake5000
Member
cornflake5000

So he must be facing some great hitting… or he’s bad.

Mark Davidson
Member

Bravo on this one!