Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/19/14

August 19, 2014

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: This time wasn’t my fault! This time I couldn’t get the Cover It Live website to load!

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Which, actually, could’ve been my fault somehow. But it wasn’t a deliberate act of tardiness.

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: So let’s talk about real baseball and not fantasy baseball unless by fantasy baseball you mean the slim odds of a White Sox 2014 division title

9:12	Comment From Andy Lies

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: You’ll never know!

9:13	Comment From Guest There are almost 200 million people in Brazil, why is baseball underdeveloped there?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: There are more people in India. Why is baseball underdeveloped there?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Brazil is making progress. Obviously, they have Yan Gomes and Andre Rienzo now. Teams have been pushing the boundaries for years but the process can take a long time.

9:14	Comment From Bren Do you think there can be any downside to pitch framing? For instance Travis d’Arnaud is considered a strong pitch framer, but passed balls have been a big problem.

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s possible that emphasis on framing instruction can take away from emphasis on other instruction, but the better catchers know how to do both, and catchers have been knowing how to block for a long time, and ultimately the impacts of framing seem to be considerably more significant than the impacts of blocking anyhow

9:15	Comment From Harry Carays Ghost When will the Cubs call up Soler? Now-ish or wait until September?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: September. No real need to hurry and he’s hitting .230 in Triple-A

9:16	Comment From CuriousGeorge What are your thoughts on the Outfield comparison article on the Pirates and Marlins? I disagreed with the author, I would take the Marlins guys.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I prefer the Pirates guys but it’s close and it depends in large part on how you feel about Marcell Ozuna

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I”m becoming increasingly interested in Yelich and I might write about him soon but he’s not a developing superstar

9:16	Comment From Cubbie Blues Starlin Castro is 3 time All-Star, a top 5 shorstop by WAR this year, and he’s only 24. Is he secretly the Cubs best young player?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: No, because Anthony Rizzo is better

9:17	Comment From Guest Where is my Chinese baseball?!

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-referen…

9:18	Comment From Dr. Met Is JBJ just…. Bourjos in disguise?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Bourjos has a career 94 wRC+

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Bourjos is a guy worth starting when he’s healthy. Bradley isn’t good enough at the half of his game to offset the other half of his game

9:20	Comment From Guest Talk me off the xander cliff

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: The best thing you can cling to right now is the fact that he’s still 21 years old. Things have gone terribly, but the talent is obviously in there, and age is such a strong, strong factor when it comes to projecting future success

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Same reason I’m not totally worried about Javier Baez’s strike-zone control. It’s not good at the moment, but he’s 21, and historically young players have shown good improvement in this area if they get early big-league experience

9:22	Comment From Connor Will Adam Jones ever be thrown into an MVP debate?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He finished sixth in 2012 voting

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: He’ll get his weird support

9:25	Comment From CS What kind of upside do you see from A. Garcia? only 23 and some people expect decent things from him.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Well on the plus side I think people have stopped trying to compare him to Miguel Cabrera

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Real power, toolsy swing, doesn’t seem particularly gifted in the outfield. He’ll go as far as his power can take him, and I suspect he’ll have a career peak somewhere around the 3-WAR range

9:27	Comment From Theo Javier BAez’s production has been nice, but his 37% K-rate and .250 OB% have me concerned as a Cubs fan. What are your expectations, short term as well as long term? Will he learn to get on base?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: He’s not doing anything surprising right now. He wasn’t going to be a true impact player right away, not with his tendencies. I expect he’ll always be aggressive, and he’ll always be a heavy swinger, but as he ages his walks will go up and his strikeouts will go down and I think he’ll be a fine player who also happens to be streaky

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: He has the power to keep people from complaining too much about his strikeouts

9:29	Comment From scott I’m flying to Iceland at the beginning of September. Should I be worried about it with all this volcanic hullabaloo?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: https://theconversation.com…

9:29	Comment From Fowler Do you think Rusney Castillo signs before the August 31 deadline? How good do you think he will be?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: He’s signing within a matter of days. He probably will not be very good, but I’ll buy him as helpful if he figures out his best defensive position

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: As a not-great comparison point, Guerrero for the Dodgers has a sub-.900 OPS in Triple-A Albuquerque

9:31	Comment From Guest Hi Jeff. Are there any groups or classes of pitchers whose ERAs regularly outperform FIP?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Lefties, fly ball guys, knuckleballers

9:32	Comment From Cubbie Blues How can we make baseball games faster? I’ve got stuff to do.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Do a lot of the things the Atlantic League is doing. But this isn’t going to be an easy trend to reverse, and you probably have to get things started in the low minors or even short of professional leagues

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Players develop habits and they’re not going to be open to changing them when they’re already in the bigs

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: But, like, Carlos Pena? There’s no excuse for that crap between every pitch

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: A minor unspoken factor: mid-AB defensive shifts. Those cause little cumulative delays

9:34	Comment From Kirk Gibson I bet all you damn hippies are sad to hear that I’m not getting fired. You suckers wouldn’t know a real man’s baseball game if it wound up and plunked you in the ribs!

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Thankfully your baseball team is extremely easy to ignore

9:34	Comment From GSon Won’t framing statistics go away when MLB finally realizes the benefits to the K-Zone technology?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: When that’s actually on the horizon, we can talk about it

9:35	Comment From David Let’s say you’re Matt Williams … who starts game one of the NLDS and who’s not even on the roster?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: While it in part depends on the opponent, I’d be planning to start Zimmermann

9:36	Comment From Catoblepas Did you read Jon Bois’s short novel, and did you love it?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have time during the week, really, to read that as it ought to be read, but I already know I’m going to love it and hate it. Love it because it’s fantastic, hate it because he’s too talented

9:39	Comment From Tom As dominant as Herrera, Davis and Holland have been for Kansas City, they appear short on LHP relievers to mix and match with before the 7th inning. Who do you think would make sense for them?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: This appears to be a very minor issue and they already have Scott Downs, albeit on the disabled list

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t the reason they might fall apart

9:39	Comment From Guest When’s the last time a playoff contender had a platoon at shortstop?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: A playoff contender had Pete Kozma at shortstop

9:40	Comment From LA Doug The Angels offense has gone quiet for a while now. Do you expect Angels to pick up the offense w/ Kendrick in the 5 hole while Hamilton simmers?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: They still lead baseball in team wRC+. They lead baseball in team position-player WAR. I’m not really concerned about the Angels’ production and that’s even granting that Josh Hamilton is in one of his spells

9:40	Comment From Guest there are 4 players in Pittsburgh that have wRC+ greater than 130. Considering that ballpark it’s pretty amazing collection of talent

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: wRC+ adjusts for ballpark

9:41	Comment From JBizzy So, Bárðarbunga. Iceland going to shut down Europe again?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Highly unlikely!

9:41	Comment From Bret The Jays – what are we gonna do about those guys!?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: The sense I’m getting is complain a lot

9:41	Comment From Andy True or false: There’s more to being a good big league manager than just X’s and O’s.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Strategy is like the smallest part of it

9:42	Comment From Bob Barker Betts is going to play everyday this time, right?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: That’s the idea

9:42	Comment From Gus What do you make of Lloyd McClendon and Michael Saunders? It appears that Lloyd thinks playing Logan Morrisson in RF is superior to calling up Saunders. Is this due to Condor’s baby, or some failure to perceive the obvious by McClendon?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Saunders isn’t ready yet so in the meantime the team doesn’t have a corner outfielder worth a crap

9:43	Comment From Jim Joc Pederson is going to have the first 30/30 season in the modern era of the PCL. Congratulations?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: It’s fun to think about just why this is true

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Kemp, Crawford and Ethier are the reasons why this is true!

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: And Pederson. Pederson is the one doing it.

9:44	Comment From Dr. Met Will Scoop ever learn to take a walk? Hasn’t shown much plate discipline improvement over the year has he?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: He didn’t walk in Triple-A, either. Seems a lot like a guy who isn’t going to walk

9:45	Comment From Lutz Given his knee injuries (plural) do you think Machado will return to SS when Hardy leaves?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It’s the least likely that it has ever been

9:46	Comment From GSon Of the following.. who might be considered a “developing superstar”: Francisco Lindor, Addison Russell and Carlos Correa?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: yes

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: yes, all of them

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: in different ways, naturally, but they all have top-prospect superstar potential. They won’t all be superstars but their superstar probabilities aren’t meaningfully different, to me

9:48	Comment From ArlingtonOsFan Is Caleb Joseph actually a viable MLB starter going forward? Or is this unsustainable?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s a viable starter in that he wouldn’t be the worst starter in the league, but more reasonably he’s a viable backup who can handle the workload if your starter needs time or a trip to the DL

9:50	Comment From Kris who’s playing who in the wild card games?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Mariners @ Angels, Giants @ Cardinals

9:51	Comment From Billy if the royals take the AL Central, does the Myers/Odorizz-Shields/Davis trade look any better? I’d lean no but we may need more time to answer that questions.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s any arguing it looks a little better. But, I mean, Odorizzi has arguably outpitched Shields this season. James Shields isn’t why the Royals are winning their division at the moment

9:52	Comment From buttes rank the following teams in terms of their future outlook: Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, Rays, Reds

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: How far into the future?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Yankees and Red Sox will be healthiest on account of their payrolls

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Tigers might have a couple lousy contracts on the books. Reds are winding down an unremarkable window. Rays seem poised to be decent for a while. Rangers seem a lot worse than they are on true talent because of all the missing players

9:55	Comment From Jerry DiPoto Is Kole Calhoun for real or is 2014 a fluke? And if he is for real, how do guys like this go completely unnoticed on prospect lists, etc?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: He’s legit. But he doesn’t have a standout skill, and he’s mostly been old for his leagues in the minors, so he was never going to capture all that much attention

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Never a BA organizational top-10, though. That just tells you more about what BA is looking for in a prospect

9:57	Comment From Lutz Do you think Machado will eclipse Longoria as early as next year (his OPS has already eclipsed him this year)

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, they’re already so close, and Machado is nearly seven years Longoria’s junior

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: So yeah, let’s call it 2015 in which Manny Machado surpasses Evan Longoria, if he’s able to stay healthy. But then you’ve got Seager/Donaldson to think about too

9:58	Comment From _David_ Lloyd McClendon’s decision to bat Elias before taking him out was curious. At first I hated it, but then it would be using a bench player for maybe a 12% extra chance they reach base, in a 2 out no one on situation. Is that justifiable?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: It’s justifiable, although on the other hand there’s not much pain associated with wasting Endy Chavez

9:58	Comment From Teddy Are the nationals a top 3 team right now?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I think so. I see them, the Angels, and the A’s as the three best teams in baseball

9:59	Comment From Mookie Did you see the little league game between Puerto Rico and Korea, where they were plunking each other repeatedly? The pitcher from PR hits several batters and then poses when he gets drilled. Funny, and sad at the same time.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: It’s almost like they’re behaving like little boys