Jeremy Hellickson: Now Slightly More Interesting

This is simply the nature of the current starting-pitcher market. There’s no Cole Hamels, there’s no David Price. There’s a Chris Archer and a Sonny Gray and a Julio Teheran, but odds are they all stay put. So you move on to your Andrew Cashners and your Drew Pomeranzes and you look for reasons to get excited. You don’t force reasons to get excited — some guys just aren’t that exciting — but if they’re there, you pay attention.

It’s understandable to not find Jeremy Hellickson too exciting. Over the course of his career, he’s been about the definition of average. Oh, Hellickson once was exciting. As a minor leaguer in 2011, he was ranked as the No. 18 prospect in the sport by Baseball America, and after making a brief but impressive debut that year, was bumped up to No. 6 on the following year’s iteration. In 2011, he was arguably the most hyped pitching prospect in baseball, sandwiched between Teheran and Aroldis Chapman, and then he started off his career with 400 innings of a 3.00 ERA.

But then, there were the ugly peripherals that had always loomed, followed by the heavy hand of regression, and then the elbow surgery, and Hellickson became a forgotten name as quickly as he’d become an intriguing one.

Except now it’s 2016, and the Philadelphia Phillies are reportedly asking for a team’s top-five prospect in order to obtain Hellickson; otherwise, they’re comfortable extending to him what could be a $16.7 million qualifying offer. Which, of course that’s what the Phillies are asking — no harm in talking up your own guy. The question is: how crazy is it, really? Or, more specifically, how interesting is Hellickson, really?

The basics: Hellickson’s 29, earning $7 million in his final year of arbitration, and will soon be a free agent. The reason the Phillies are asking for him what they’re asking: the former top prospect 29-year-old is currently running a career-best FIP-, a career-best xFIP-, and career-bests in strikeout rate, walk rate, and swinging-strike rate. All of that’s not counting his 36-inning debut in 2010. As far as full seasons go, Hellickson’s never looked better.

Maybe that speaks more to Hellickson’s past than to his present. The FIP is still 4.17. The ERA is 3.65. They’re good numbers, and certainly better, but it’s not like he’s suddenly looking like a front-of-the-rotation starter, the kind of guy you look forward to starting a playoff game. He’s just gone from wholly uninteresting to worth some attention. Working in the Phillies’ favor is that Hellickson, lately, has pitched like the guy you look forward to starting the playoff game. Over his last seven starts, spanning 45 innings, the ERA is 2.20 and his FIP 3.27. Of course the Phillies should be asking a higher return than we might expect — he looks better now than he’s looked in some years. But could there be more?

Hellickson’s two biggest issues have always been the same: lefties and the long ball. I want to focus on the former. Because, see, there’s one easily identifiable reason not only for Hellickson’s improvements over the course of the season but, more specifically, over the last month, and it relates directly to his issues with left-handed batters. Over the last month, Hellickson’s ramped up the usage of his changeup relative to earlier in the season, a shift that’s been met with great success. Which makes sense, because he’s had one of the very best changeups in baseball this season.

The following image shows whiffs per swing. I don’t believe it needs much more explaining:

That’s insane. Batters used to whiff a little more than 33% of the time when offering at Hellickson’s change. This year, it’s been closer to 60%. Let’s work our way up the top-five in changeup whiff rates this season. In fifth is Marco Estrada, and you can read all about his changeup. In fourth is Michael Fulmer, and you can truly read all about his changeup. In third and second are Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg, and you already know about them. But none of the four have come close to touching Hellickson when it comes to making batters look silly with the change.

Just ask Miguel Cabrera:

Our run-value leaderboard’s got Hellickson’s change as baseball’s sixth-most valuable this season. Even on a per-pitch basis, it still ranks among the elite. It’s getting more arm-side run than it used to, Hellickson’s been working to get more drop on the pitch every year since he’s been in the league, and that extra movement’s allowing him to consistently spot it lower in the zone. Hellickson’s changeup, as it stands, is better now than it’s ever been.

So, he must be solving those lefties, right? The lefties were always half the problem, and now Hellickson’s working with one of the league’s most truly devastating changeups. Everyone knows a good changeup is the key to retiring opposite-handed batters!

Except, well:

Jeremy Hellickson vs. LHB

• Career: .323 wOBA allowed, 4.69 FIP
• 2016: .330 wOBA allowed, 5.29 FIP

It’s bizarre. It doesn’t seem like it shouldn’t be happening, but it is. Despite the strides Hellickson’s made to turn his changeup into one of baseball’s best, he still can’t figure out lefties.

And then, more bizarre: Hellickson started throwing a cutter this year, but he’s throwing it almost exclusively to lefties, which is counterintuitive. Moreso, when you consider they’ve slugged .724 against it. The four-seamer’s just never been great, which is still the crux of the issue. And then, despite all the progress he’s made with the pitch, he’s actually throwing the changeup to lefties less often than in the past. I’m not inside the head of Jeremy Hellickson or his catchers, so I can’t wager a guess as to what’s been behind the pitch selection. I can say it’s a head-scratcher.

On the one hand, Hellickson’s the same as he’s ever been. He’s still giving up the long ball far too often, he’s still getting killed by lefties — and, even in a career-year, he doesn’t look like much more than a league-average starter. Maybe a bit better than that. On the other, even six years after his top-20 placing on Baseball America’s Top 100 list, there looks to be some potential left still. He’s still got the fascinating curveball that gets more spin than anyone. And now, he’s crafted his change to look like one of the game’s best, which would seem like the key to solving the lefties. It just hasn’t yet been used that way. It sure seems like Jeremy Hellickson could just be one more tweak away. So the story goes.