Justin Steele Has a Distinctive Pitch Arsenal

Allow me to present a play in two acts:

Act 1:

Justin Steele is 21 four-seamers away from history*.

Most four-seamers thrown w/out giving up a HR in the pitch tracking era:

Heath Bell: 807 in 2010
Justin Steele: 786 in 2022.

— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) July 22, 2022

Act 2:

Kyle Schwarber – Philadelphia Phillies (30) pic.twitter.com/IHKy2c0spm

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) July 22, 2022

On the very first pitch of his start against the Phillies on July 22, Justin Steele threw a four-seam fastball. Kyle Schwarber promptly launched the pitch into the right field stands. It was the first home run Steele had allowed off the pitch this year, preventing him from getting any closer to the historic mark Alex Fast had tweeted about just hours earlier. Schwarber aside, the fact that Steele had made it through 17 starts without allowing a home run off his four-seamer was an impressive feat, and it’s a big reason he’s been one of the Cubs’ best starters this year.

An over-slot fifth-round draft pick back in 2014, Steele steadily made his way through Chicago’s farm system before injuring his elbow in ’17. He returned from Tommy John surgery in less than a year and was the fifth ranked prospect on the Cubs 2018 preseason prospect list as a 45 FV prospect. But a string of minor injuries derailed his ascent in 2019 — he made just 11 starts in Double-A that year — and he lost another year of development to the pandemic (he was actually called up to the big leagues from the alternate site for a short time during the shortened season but never made an appearance). By last year, the injuries and Steele’s lack of a strong third or fourth pitch dropped him to 25th on the Cubs preseason list (and into the 40 FV tier) with the profile of a left-handed middle reliever.

He finally made his major league debut in April 2021, pitching out of the bullpen for the Cubs. He was phenomenal in that role, allowing just four runs in 11 appearances and 13.1 innings. Steele struck out 37.5% of the batters he faced and generated a groundball rate higher than 70%. He injured his hamstring in late May, and when he was ready for his rehab assignment, the Cubs decided to stretch him out to see if he could handle a starter’s workload. He returned from the minors in August and made nine starts down the stretch, posting a 4.95 ERA and an ugly 5.99 FIP. His strikeout rate plummeted, his walk rate ballooned, and he had real trouble keeping the ball in the park.

It’s been a completely different story for Steele this year. He’s made 23 starts, cutting his ERA by more than a run and his FIP by more than two, down to 3.25 and 3.11 respectively. And his recent run of success has been particularly impressive. He allowed six runs to score in his start in Pittsburgh on June 23, but since then, he’s put up a 1.47 ERA and a 2.47 FIP in nine starts. His strikeout rate hasn’t bounced back to where it was while he was working shorter stints in the bullpen, but it’s been good enough and getting better as the season goes on (it’s up to 28.9% during this hot streak). The biggest reason for his newfound success has been an ability to better manage contact against him, relying heavily on his unique fastball.

Steele’s heater doesn’t stand out by any of the modern metrics that tend to get the most attention these days. He throws it with below average velocity, it doesn’t possess all that much carry, and it’s not particularly spin efficient. But I suspect that because it doesn’t fit neatly into the mold of hard, riding fastballs, Steele has found a niche that he’s been able to exploit. Here’s a look at the physical characteristics of the pitch:

As I mentioned above, the pitch doesn’t possess much backspin, which imparts the telltale ride of a modern fastball. Despite an above-average amount of raw spin, the pitch’s active spin is among the lowest of any four-seamer thrown in the majors. And not only is Steele inefficient at backspinning the pitch, but it also possesses a hefty amount of gyro spin, giving it an element of spin-based deception. In practice, that means the pitch cuts in on right-handed batters with nearly no arm-side break to it. With a high release point, the pitch travels towards the plate with a low vertical approach angle and a very high horizontal approach angle; it’s almost a sinker/cutter hybrid.

Using Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Comp tool, I pulled up a few other left-handed pitchers who throw fastballs similar to Steele’s:

It’s never a bad thing when Clayton Kershaw shows up on a comp list, though Kershaw hasn’t relied heavily on his fastball for years. Still, this list is populated with pitchers who have distinctive fastballs that aren’t necessarily the highlight of their repertoire. It’s also telling that two cutters appear on the list, lending further credence to the sinker/cutter hybrid theory.

From a results standpoint, I suspect the uncommon movement profile helps Steele manage the amount of hard contact he allows off his heater. The expected wOBA on contact off the pitch sits well below the league average for the pitch type and he’s able to generate a ton of groundball contact with it despite locating it up in the zone regularly. Normally, contact against a hard, riding fastball would result in elevated contact, often popups or lazy fly balls if executed properly. Opposing batters have a terrible time squaring up Steele’s fastball, and they roll over it more often than not.

Looking back at our list of pitch comps, Steele’s fastball doesn’t seem to be outperforming the extremely limited sample I pulled:

This sample of fastballs (and cutters) generates pretty abnormal results for the pitch type. Instead of the typical swing-and-miss fastball, these pitches are more likely to result in weaker contact. Steele’s results with his heater are right in line with the sample average, with his elite groundball rate the only metric truly standing above the rest. The whiff rate doesn’t stand out all that much, sitting just below league average for a four-seamer.

Steele doesn’t need his fastball to be his out pitch because his slider has been a phenomenal weapon for him. Batters are whiffing 32.5% of the time against the pitch, and that mark jumps up to 43.8% against left-handed batters. It’s a big reason why he’s struck out over 30% of the lefties he’s faced this season. The key to his breaking ball’s success? It’s the sweep, of course. His slider possesses vertical and horizontal movement that sits in the top 10% of all sliders thrown at least 100 times this year. With plenty of spin deviation imparting seam shifted wake effects on the pitch, its physical characteristics are pretty close to the Dodgers sweeper that was popularized last year. Both Julio Urías and Kershaw throw some version of that big breaking ball and they both appear near the top of that list of pitch comps above. Emulating their repertoires and approaches should serve Steele well.

Here’s an example of Steele’s slider, against Rowdy Tellez on August 21:

During this recent run of strong starts, Steele has also been leaning on these two pitches such that he’s nearly a two-pitch pitcher:

Utilizing his slider more often while managing hard contact with his fastball has been a recipe for success. He’s striking out more batters, and his hard hit and barrel rates have fallen, all while maintaining a groundball rate over 50%.

The effectiveness of these two pitches has helped Steele breakout this season. Maintaining that success will be the big challenge, though. Without a solid third offering, he’s prone to struggling when facing a lineup multiple times. His slider has allowed him to keep left-handed batters at bay, but developing a passable changeup could help him against righties, even though he isn’t sporting a significant platoon split this season. Right now, his two-pitch approach is working for him — and it worked for Kershaw for much of his career. With such distinctive pitches making up his repertoire, it’s possible Steele could buck convention again and thrive on his unique fastball and sweeping slider.