Justin Upton’s Rebound Has Been Stalled by a Back Strain

Shohei Ohtani’s amazing season aside, not too much has gone the Angels’ way thus far. Mike Trout is injured, Anthony Rendon has struggled, Albert Pujols has been productive — but only after being cut by the Angels and picked up by the Dodgers — and the team’s defense has been dreadful enough to undo a rotation that appeared to be solid coming into the year. Justin Upton contributed to their miseries by playing quite badly on both sides of the ball in the early going, but after a torrid month, he’s landed on the Injured List with a lower back strain.

The 33-year-old Upton exited Tuesday night’s game against the Giants after two plate appearances due to lower back tightness. He didn’t play on Wednesday, and when he wasn’t included in the lineup on Friday, manager Joe Maddon said that he anticipated Upton returning this past weekend. When he arrived at the ballpark and underwent testing, however, trainers determined that he would need more time to heal, and so the Angels placed him on the IL, backdating his stint so that he will be eligible to return on July 3.

Upton is hitting .247/.336/.480 with 14 homers overall; his 125 wRC+ is his best mark since 2017, and fourth among Angels regulars behind Trout (193), Ohtani (174), and Jared Walsh (143). That’s quite a turnaround given his descent into replacement territory in the previous two seasons and the first part of this one:

After hitting .257/.344/.463 with 30 homers and a 121 wRC+ in 2018, his first full season with the Angels, Upton was limited to 63 games in ’19. A combination of patellar tendinitis in his right knee and turf toe on his left foot prevented him from debuting until June 17, and he didn’t play after September 10 due to further patellar tendinitis; he was shut down and received an injection of platelet-rich plasma. Though he fared reasonably well during spring training last year (pre-COVID shutdown) and opened the shortened season as the Angels’ regular left fielder, he struggled mightily, hitting .094/.169/.188 in 71 PA through August 19. By that point, the promotion of top prospect Jo Adell had put the squeeze on Upton’s playing time; he soon found himself benched in favor of Brian Goodwin.

Upton made some mechanical adjustments and rebounded, hitting .289/.379/.602 with seven homers in 95 PA from August 24 through the end of the season. In late September, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya explained his changes:

The most notable change is in Upton’s setup in the batter’s box. Earlier in the season, Upton stood with his legs spread out at the plate and slightly bent at the knees. He would bring his bat up above his back shoulder and level it out so it was close to parallel to the ground, along with his customary bat waggle. Now, he is a little more upright in the batter’s box, with his legs closer together. He brings the bat up closer to his head with more of an angle, the waggle slightly reduced along with his hand load.

Here’s a screenshot of Upton’s setup in the first example Ardaya offered, from July 25 of last season:

And here’s one from May 26 of this year (these side views are harder to come by but show the leg positioning better than the view from center field):

Here’s his 300th homer, from last July 29:

And here’s one from June 8 of this season, with the more upright stance:

The mechanical changes didn’t solve all of Upton’s problems, as his early-2021 woes suggest. But to be fair, he was hitting the ball harder than his results suggested. And while that May 22 date above might appear to represent an arbitrary endpoint, it’s actually his last game before Joe Maddon moved him into the leadoff spot for the first time in his career in an attempt to shake him out of his slump, something the manager previously tried with Evan Longoria in Tampa Bay and Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo in Chicago. Via MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger:

“I’ve had power guys in the past struggle, and most of the time, they get moved down in the batting order, but with a guy of his pedigree, I wanted to move him up and give him a different mindset to work with,” Maddon said. “He’s looking more to the middle of the field and trying to get on base. He’s trying to hit singles, but he knows his power is there and he’s shown that, too. Just a different seat on the deck and a different way to look at things.”

…”Later in the game, I let the scoreboard and the game dictate how the at-bat goes, but to lead off the game with Shohei [Ohtani] and Anthony [Rendon] behind me, I try to set the table,” Upton said. “I’m waiting on more pitches, better pitches to hit. Getting on via a walk or getting a pitch down the middle I can get on base on. I’m definitely trying to set the table early for those guys.”

Via the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher:

“I’m in better positions mechanically,” Upton said. “We talk a lot about controlling the zone and hitting balls in the big part of the plate. It’s been going that way. I’ve been able to lay off the bad ones and really wait on my pitch, and it’s working out for me.”

Upton has actually seen substantially fewer pitches per plate appearance since moving up to the leadoff spot (3.86 versus 4.46 prior), but he’s getting better mileage by chasing fewer pitches out of the strike zone (24.9% versus 28%); his walk rate has spiked from 9.7% to 14.3% while his strikeout rate has dipped from 31.3% to 25.9%. While his average exit velocity hasn’t changed much, he’s barreled the ball with greater consistency, and hit it in the air more frequently:

In his new role, Upton has seen more four-seam fastballs and sinkers, and he’s fared better against them:

Mind you, even with that uptick, Upton has still done less against four-seamers than just about any hitter this year; his -9 runs against the pitch is the major’s fourth-lowest value, ahead of only Gregory Polanco, Michael A. Taylor, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Upton’s overall .160 AVG, .293 SLG, and .260 wOBA against the heater are well below last year’s .214 AVG, .482 SLG, and .324 wOBA, and he was even better in the years before that, going as high as a .407 wOBA against four-seamers in 2017. In the long run, that kind of decline against fastballs probably doesn’t bode well.

Prior to Maddon moving Upton into the leadoff spot, the Angels were 19-27; since then, they’re 18-13, including 16-9 in the 25 games Upton hit first — all without Trout in the lineup, as the center fielder landed on the IL with a right calf strain on May 18. Trout, alas, has yet to resume baseball activities, and so he’s going to blow past the six-week mark in the initial forecast of a six-to-eight week absence; right now, a return before the All-Star break looks less likely.

[Update: via Fletcher, Trout resumed baseball activities on Monday, but as he was transferred to the 60-day IL, he’s not eligible to return until July 17, the second day after the break; he’ll likely head out on a rehab assignment beforehand.]

As for Upton, there’s no indication yet as to how long he could be out, though given the initial confusion about his status, there’s nothing to suggest his absence will be an extended one. But with Trout and Dexter Fowler (who’s out for the season with a torn ACL) already sidelined, and Walsh now the team’s regular first baseman, the Halos’ outfield depth has taken yet another hit. Taylor Ward has started three of the team’s four games in left field since Upton went down; last Wednesday, during the Angels’ 13-inning loss to the Giants, Ward moved to catcher in the 12th inning after Kurt Suzuki took a foul ball off his mask, and rotation regular Griffin Canning finished in left. Phil Gosselin, who had made just 30 previous outfield appearances over parts of eight seasons, started in left field on Sunday; he’s swinging a hot bat (.341/.386/.476), and hit the go-ahead homer on Sunday, but Luis Rengifo, who made the first six outfield starts of his career in right from June 19-26, is not (.140/.173/.280), and for that matter neither is Trout’s center field fill-in, Juan Lagares (.224/.250/.336). Maddon has thus far resisted the temptation to start Ohtani in right instead of DHing him, and likewise, the team doesn’t appear to be in a hurry to bring back Adell, who’s hitting .270/.321/.597 with a league-high 16 homers at Triple-A Salt Lake but striking out in 31.2% of his plate appearances.

With Upton leading off, the Angels had clawed their way back above .500, but with a weakened outfield in place, they proceeded to lose five straight while scoring just 12 runs against the Tigers, Giants, and Rays before snapping the skid on Sunday. At 37-40, they’re still running fourth in the AL West, and without both Trout and the resurgent Upton, their chances of turning their season around are that much slimmer.