Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 12/20/2021

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Happy Holidays and all that good stuff. Let’s chat.

Deeb: Do you agree with the 70 grade hit tool for Triantos?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s a fun question and Eric and I talked about it on Friday’s episode of Chin Music. It really stood out to me, but I’m a big fan of using the whole scale.

Deeb: what’s for lunch?

Kevin Goldstein: Leftovers. Either fajita enchiladas, or Mediterranean chicken with potatoes.

Ben Verlander: What’s your take on Justin Verlander’s contract issue been already resolved?

Kevin Goldstein: I think the deal got done and the MLB had some kind of issue with the wording on that option that had to get cleared up or cleaned up or whatever. Not a big deal.

josh: how far ahead do teams try to plan for the major league roster? have there already been meetings about the plan for the 2023 off-season? Free agency often seems too wild to plan around.

Kevin Goldstein: It is too wild to plan around. You certainly track your commitments for the next two to five years, the prospects you hope will fill any holes and where you might need to find external candidates.

Kate: What’s a realistic offensive upside look like for Jeremy Pena?  Does 20 bombs (crawford box aided), 12-15 SBs and a .340ish OBP sound possible?  Not as a median projection, but a realistic upside if things click at the plate.

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, that COULD happen if everything pans out.

tz: Do front offices ever scout non-player personnel (analysts, AGMs etc.) from other orgs?

Kevin Goldstein: Scout is a weird world, but they get a feel for who is doing what and who is really shining.

Dave: You mentioned a few weeks ago that activities like skiing or skydiving are prohibited in player contracts. If Joe Superstar were an avid skier, what would he have to give up for his contract to allow recreational skiing? Would teams even do this?

Kevin Goldstein: More likely he simply would have given up skiing quite some time ago….

Joseph: You’ve been asked a lot about a player who you pushed a lot for and did not signed(Nelson Cruz), how about a player you pushed a lot for and did not pan out well?

Kevin Goldstein: I thought Carlos Beltran could still hit. I was wrong.

Mitch Meluskey: Does Gelof have the athleticism to be an effective 2B if the arm issues continue?

Kevin Goldstein: I think that would be a stretch.

Kate: Do you think we end up seeing less player movement this offseason (via trades, etc.) due to the lost time teams have to discuss possible transactions?  Or does it all just get crunched into a shorter time period?  Like I’m wondering if they end up settling on a CBA right before ST (or even after it’s supposed to start) if some teams figure they don’t have enough time to coordinated multiple moves that might be dependent on one another.

Kevin Goldstein: I think you’re just going to get a crazy crunch.

B Cashman: Am I a future Hall of famer now or do I need to do more?

Kevin Goldstein: I’d put him in. It’s kind of amazing to be an underrated GM when you are the GM for the Yankees, but Cash is exactly that.

Mark Shapiro: What is Cavan Biggio? He figures to have a prominent spot on the 2022 Blue Jays, but there seems to be a wide variance on what he can be, based on a bad batted ball profile and elite plate discipline, coupled with not being a good defender but being able to play multiple positions.

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, I think utility is his best position on a good team.

Deeb: Should MLB adjust the regular season schedule to build in time for covid postponments at the end of the regular season. We’re seeing the NBA postpone games and the NFL delay games. Hard to imagine that MLB will avoid this.

Kevin Goldstein: If MLB was being played RIGHT NOW, it would be impossible to avoid, you’re right. I think one thing we’ve all learned about this pandemic is that it’s unpredictable. I have no idea what this will look like in March.

The ghost of Pokey Reese: Hey Kevin, do you like watching baseball games on TV with the automated Kzone boarder or would you prefer to watch the old fashioned way with no graphics?

Kevin Goldstein: Honestly, I don’t really have strong feelings about it. I just kinda block it out.

Mitch Meluskey: When a team like Oakland seemingly has everything on the block, is there a bandwidth limit to what can logistically be done even if you get good offers for everyone? I would think completing trades for all 5 or 6 of their veterans would overstretch the front office personnel to where it isn’t feasible in one offseason

Kevin Goldstein: They can get it done. I’m sure they are VERY WELL buttoned up. I would set the over/under on big name trades before Opening Day at 2.5.

Erik: Do the Phillies  get to the playoffs with their current core? Feels like it’s getting older and they continue to not make enough surrounding editions to look like they have anything more than an outside shot.

Kevin Goldstein: Well . . . we don’t know what the playoff structure is yet. Assuming it doesn’t change (it’s going to change), I’d be concerned about their depth, but think it’s addressable.

Moose_Bolton: Do you have any holiday traditions that you particularly look forward to every year?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. I just like good food and spending time with family. My wife and I have entered a very strange stage that we are still adjusting to in that all four of our parents have now passed away, so we’re kind of the matriarch and patriarch of the family. The good part is that stuff happens at our house.

A sumo question: Abi looked really good this last basho, do you think he can keep it up? He showed focus and technique I hadn’t seen from him before.

Kevin Goldstein: He did look good! So did Ura. New rankings are out . . . this week I think? I’m really interested in seeing where those two end up, and if Mitakeumi gets to Ozeki and some point in 2022. MORE SUMO.

Tribe Fan: Which third base prospect will have a better 2022?  Have a trade offer in Scoresheet, asking for Jung or Torkelson for Sal Perez.  Thoughts?

Kevin Goldstein: In real world baseball, I’d take Torkelson.

Sodo Mojo: Do you think Evan White has a future roll for Seattle.  What are the chances starting at AAA will help him redevelop his swing?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not especially optimistic….

Dink: Shin Megami Tensei or Tales of Arise?  Looking for a  new game to help me get through the cold months

Kevin Goldstein: SMT.

LB: Any chance the Red Sox resign Schwarber? If not, do you see them going after any big name hitter?

Kevin Goldstein: He’s a free agent, so sure there’s a chance.

Bob: Lars Nootbaar In 2022 he is (a) a minor leaguer/ guy who got cut with a great name, (b) decent-ish as a LHH 4th outfielder, (c) legit outfielder/DH with

Kevin Goldstein: B.

Jefferson: Do you have faith in MLB and the PA to handle covid safely and properly this spring? On one hand, they have lots of time to prepare and examples of systems (good and bad) from other sports and areas. On the other hand, I have little faith in MLB doing anything

Kevin Goldstein: Based on what we are seeing, I’m not super optimistic, but as I said before, we don’t really know where we will be, and like you said in this question, hopefully they’ll be able to learn lessons from other sports.

Chris: I saw a few tweets about Jon Singleton. Now that he’s remade his body do you think he could make a 26 man roster?

Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea, but it would be great, huh?

Cynthia: I believe you’ve said in the past that you don’t like the Future Value scale for prospects? Can you explain why?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m really not a fan of single numbers defining players, but I understand why we use it. I like to communicate the variance more.

MLB Commish: How about when a team drafts a player , from that moment they get 7/8 years of control no matter what happens, that way they are forced to play them as soon as possible to not lose the control years

Kevin Goldstein: It’s a little simplistic, but there’s a path to something good with something like this. We need a rule set that incentivizes teams to put their best 25 players on the field.

Inaccessible Rail: Do you think the Mets were canny in waiting to hire a manager until the lockout, knowing that this way they would dominate the baseball news cycle?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think that was intentional.

Cynthia: Do front offices have a lot of staff turnover? I’m sure people join with the idea that their love for working in baseball outweighs the high working hours and relatively low pay, but I’m wondering if that ends up holding true for most people.

Kevin Goldstein: Turnover feels especially high this year, actually.

Kevin Goldstein: I went 14 straight days in October with at least one team reaching out to me looking for names or some insight on a specific person for a position.

Jeter: Are teams allowed to contact you during the lockout?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s complicated.

Kevin Goldstein: I can’t stop them from talking to me, nor would I. Whatever rules there are, they don’t apply to me.

Rob: I know you hate hypotheticals but… bear with me. If a 70 raw power guy has trouble getting to it in game due to, say, a 30 hit tool, does the reverse hold true? Can a 70 hitter actualize his abilities if he only has 30 power? It seems like pitchers would be pretty adept at inducing weak contact from that profile.

Kevin Goldstein: Sounds like Luis Arraez, no?

Lisa: Are there any agencies ahead of the curve in Player Development like we see with certain organizations?

Kevin Goldstein: Boras.

Billy G: What’s the industry thought on Kotsay? He seems good, but I haven’t seen him mentioned as often on FG as some of the others they interviewed (Venable, Quatraro, etc)

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve heard nothing but good things.

Marshall: You’ve mentioned your antipathy towards season awards, but do you feel similarly about hall of fame voting?

Kevin Goldstein: If not more.

Cito’s Mustache: Was there ever a time while with the Astros, during either trade or free agent negotiations, where the other side had such a wildly different valuation of a player that it made you re-think your own?

Kevin Goldstein: It does happen. “Man, what do they see/don’t see in this player that we’re missing?” Still, at the end of the day you have to be confident in your evaluations.

Maddoning: What players that you encountered stand out to you as genuinely nice guys?  Like legit polite to everybody?

Kevin Goldstein: Correa, Altuve, Devinski, McHugh, Josh James . . . quite a few really.

Peter: Do we see Kevin Kopps in the big leagues this year?

Kevin Goldstein: Wouldn’t shock me.

Q-Ball: What kind of player is Ian Happ?  5 years into his career, he’s still an enigma, no?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know . . . I see the career line of 241/338/467 and think he’s probably about that.

Erik: What’s your current prediction for how many games will be played next season? Am I right to be worried that the owners won’t care too much about playing all 162?

Kevin Goldstein: 154

Q-Ball: Not sure if you’re willing to name names, but can you think of a talented young prospect or player who failed entirely due to lack of effort?

Kevin Goldstein: Plenty.

M’s Fan: Jeff Passan said last week that the Mariners are going to be really good these next few years. Do you agree?

Kevin Goldstein: Not totally on board. I think one problem might be perception. They were so over the skis in terms of run differential in 2021, that they might be a better team in 2022 and still struggle to win 90…

171: Can you give us a little insight in the skill set that the O’s are getting with the Fournie hire? I saw on twitter that you were extremely happy for him, and it just made me as an O’s fan excited.

Kevin Goldstein: Understands the rules better than anyone, really excellent at incorporating economic realities in the room. Just basically, this constant really smart, really thoughtful voice of reason in the room.

bb: What do physicals entail when players are traded? The annual physical I get would not detect a rotator-cuff injury.

Kevin Goldstein: On a trade, you’re just talking a medical review, so the acquiring team gets to review the player’s medical file, which for a pitcher will almost certainly include imaging. For a free agent signing, the team does the physical, and that’s going to include imaging.

David: Just Finished SMT 5; despite being 60+ hours of playtime the ending comes kind of quick. Solid game.

Kevin Goldstein: I just hit the third area, and I’m honestly getting a little frustrated for the first time….

Tiger Fan: What would you do if you’re Al Avila? Sign a big FA ace (Rodon) or a backend guy and some veteran relief help?

Kevin Goldstein: How about both?

Brendan: Did you see the movie “Sugar?”  Did you find it to be a reasonably accurate portrayal of minor league life for young kids from the Dominican or nah?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes; mostly.

Tiger Fan: How many people (or questions I suppose) are typically in these chats? Is FG doing alright traffic wise during the lockout?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t have an easy way to count questions, but there’s a few hundred people staring at this right now, and I can’t think you enough for joining me.

Inaccessible Rail: I’ve heard that a lower percentage of MLB players have been vaccinated than in other sports, but I can’t find numbers anywhere to back this up. Is it actually true?

Kevin Goldstein: It is. NFL and NBA has stricter rules, and I hope MLB follows suit.

TJ: I remember last week you said that its up to you to create work life balance when working in a front office. Does this mean it’s acceptable to occasionally leave the office at 5 whenever the team is on the road to go grab dinner with your spouse or go to your kid’s T-ball game? The impression I’ve always gotten is that you’re basically expected to work late every night but obviously that may not be the case and could vary from team to team. Would love to hear your thoughts.

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, in a good org, that should be totally fine. It’s not like some nightmare, but it is on you. Nobody is going to tell you to go home.

Toshi: Is the length of the time prospects need to adjust to a new level after promotion a good indicator for how well they will perform at the MLB level? Or it has not correlation? Thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: No correlation.

Kevin Goldstein: Sometimes players get rushed/not rushed for reasons that have nothing to do with them.

Inaccessible Rail: Does Boras have an analytics department like the way teams do?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, and his own performance facility.

171: What does your end of these chat look like? Is there just a long list of questions that have been submitted? are they organized at all in any way?

Kevin Goldstein: Tons that don’t get answered, and they’re just in order of submission.

kyle: If the expanded playoffs/universal DH happen, does the league scrap divisions and move toward a balanced schedule?

Kevin Goldstein: We just don’t know, dude.

Kevin Goldstein: MLB likes rivalries, and rivalries make money, so I imagine we’ll still have divisions.

The Opener: Brujan looked overmatched when called up last year.  What are your thoughts on his hit tool and will it play at the MLB level?

Kevin Goldstein: Most prospects look overmatched when they get called up for the first time. I still like the prospect very much. I don’t think it’s a special bat or anything, but he’s very good.

Dave Kerwin: Is defense more difficult to scout than offense in some kind of correlation to defensive statistics being less reliable than offensive stats? Have been musing on any connection here for some time…

Kevin Goldstein: When it comes to defense, I just trust the scouts. Defensive metrics are still highly flawed IMO.

Conor: What’s a reasonable expectation for Alek Manoah over the next 5 years:

Kevin Goldstein: Very good starting pitcher with some ASG appearances.

Follow up Passan: When someone like Passan says the Mariners are going to be good next few years, should we just assume he is trying to service a mutually beneficial relationship with someone in that particular FO?

Kevin Goldstein: No you should not. I think that’s a really dark view and the world is really not that conspiratorial.

Mike: How was it negotiating with the Brodie-led front offices? I always thought Brodie was in over his head but I do wonder how he may have done with a Cohen type owner and a front office that didn’t have failed GM’s from the 2004-2014 time span

Kevin Goldstein: It was fine. I actually negotiated the Marisnick/Taylor deal from start to finish. No complaints at all.

Jensen Holm: I am a 3rd year college student. Baseball helped me fall in love with data science. I want to pursue it as a career but my university only offers either applied math, or statistics. Which would be better do you think?

Kevin Goldstein: Man, I didn’t go to college, so I just don’t know.

Guest: I know people have soured on Gary Sanchez, but are there really any better available options for the Yankees right now? What moves could they realistically make?

Kevin Goldstein: Someone who can actually play the position of catcher would be a good start.

14343: What did you see the as the value of the Giants’ having a large number of coaches on staff this year? More individualized attention to player development?

Kevin Goldstein: I think that’s the biggest advantage, yes. I think the best teams have gotten away from a one size fits all approach to coaching/instruction. No more “this is how we teach hitting/pitching” and more “this is how we teach THIS PLAYER hitting/pitching.”

JTF: How has Derek Fisher panned out compared to your median expectations when he was with Houston?

Kevin Goldstein: Probably a little below. Most likely was a fourth outfielder with a much higher ceiling if the bat developed.

Kyle Tucker: Am I the best player on my team right now?

Kevin Goldstein: Wouldn’t shock me at all if you were in 2022.

Ryan: What does a solid corner guy like Andrew Benintendi get on the open market?

Kevin Goldstein: Not a ton. 100-110 wRC+ in LF isn’t great….

New Guy: One ‘speed up the game’ rule I have never heard proposed that makes a lot of sense to me: When a new pitcher enters the game, they are not allowed warm up pitches on the mound. Bullpen mounds are similar enough to the actual mound where I see no harm to pitchers, and it might discourage the frequency of bullpen moves if all warming up needs to be done in the pen. Thoughts?

Kevin Goldstein: Nah, let them warm up on the mound. They are more different than you think, especially seven innings into a game.

Jeff: Do players tend to appreciate having ex-pros in the FO or on the coaching staff? Thinking about how Nolan and Craig interact with the Astros right now…

Kevin Goldstein: They do.

Guest: Isaiah Kiner Felefa to the Yankees for Clarke Schmidt and Everton Periera. Who says no?

Kevin Goldstein: The Yankees SHOULD say no to that.

Conor: To the guy who asked about the better college major: it doesn’t really matter. Pick the program with the faculty who seem like they care and will encourage you to follow your interests. Find some interesting work opportunities or side projects. Take advantage of the opportunity to live life without expectations or obligations.

Kevin Goldstein: Passing Conor’s advice along, especially that last sentence.

ATL homer: I know it’s business, but why did the Braves wait so long only to enter the phase we’re in now and FF could potentially be gone??

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, it’s tough. We just don’t know what the offers have been, and we just don’t know what Freeman has been asking for. Honestly, I think the media might be partially to blame for the perception here, as the assumption that he’ll just come back automatically was a lazy one based on him always being with Atlanta as opposed to anything real or concrete.

Tiger Fan: What convinces scouts a prospect has “broken out” enough to meaningfully change the evaluations?

Kevin Goldstein: No one answer to this. Always player to player. Is there a meaningful change to explain the improvement or is this just a RNG hot streak? That’s the biggest question.

Guest: Was surprised you didn’t mention Freddie Freeman in your response to your nice guy question because thats been such a seemingly purposeful part of what the public sees about him. Always wondered how much about that is real and what is for show… (not that I should probably even want to know, i.e., never meet your heroes)

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve heard nothing but great things, I’ve just personally never met the guy….

JTF: Do you ever remember encountering a prospect who way outperformed his MLB projections, based on his AAA stats?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, baseball is littered with them, no? Who had Corbin Burnes as a Cy Young type?

Max G.: Do you think allowing teams to sign recently drafted players to major league contracts would be helpful in curbing service time manipulation?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes.

Kevin: How would you line up players if you were the royals at ss/3b/2b between Witt, merrifield, Lopez, mondesi (assuming all are healthy)

Kevin Goldstein: That’s four players for three positions, so I wouldn’t call that too many players and assume it would sort itself out.

Fran: Is it common for the front office team to pay a visit to the players and coaches/staff during spring training?

Kevin Goldstein: Daily, frequently. I used to spend some time in A.J. Hinch’s office nearly every day when I was there.

14343: I wish Yuli had come to MLB in his early 20s. Would have been some career.

Kevin Goldstein: I say it every time: If Yuli came over at 20, Jay Jaffe would be writing pieces about how he’s a slam dunk for the Hall of Fame.

John: Do you think Correa to the Mets is at all a possibility? If it’s like the Machado situation from 2019 and he’s just sitting there for the taking in February or March (assuming things are up and running), I have to imagine Cohen would at least call. Or is that just wishful thinking?

Kevin Goldstein: Not 0%, but HIGHLY doubtful.

KCBBq: Do you go along with the narrative that Cedric Mullins likely saw his career high this past season? What are you expecting from him in 2022?

Kevin Goldstein: I think it was probably a career year, but still think he’ll be good, like in the 800 or so OPS range.

Duke: Do clubs ask  for more in intra division trades?

Kevin Goldstein: Some do. Some don’t. Some don’t want to do it at all with big star type players.

Anon: I read that the Red Sox checked in on Correa. Think there is anything  there with the Cora connection or are they just doing due diligence?

Kevin Goldstein: I think he’d be a good fit there, and they have money . . .

Uncle Spike: Are the MLB and MLBPA actively negotiating right now and trying to come to a quick agreement or is each sides playing games and waiting things out to show how serious they are?

Kevin Goldstein: No. There is no reason to except real conversations until after the calendar flips. Players aren’t missing checks yet, owners aren’t missing revenue yet, so on December 20, there just aren’t any pressure points.

Bill: Name five better defensive shortstops than Jose Barrero, excluding Kyle Farmer 😉

Kevin Goldstein: Carlos Correa, Nicky Lopez, Brandon Crawford, Francisco Lindor, Javy Baez. I can do five more if you’d like (And I like Barrero quite a bit).

Simon: Do you think Adolis Garcia is what he was last year going forward?  League average-ish hitter with power and good defense? Or was last year fluky?

Kevin Goldstein: I’d be pretty worried. The approach (or lack thereof) was really exposed during the second half of the season.

Sammy So-so: No question. Just thanks for all the great chats and articles this year. You made me look at baseball from a different perspective numerous times.

Kevin Goldstein: Aw man, that’s so nice of you. Like I said, I have a lot of fun doing these.

Zack Greinke: What am I to do?

Kevin Goldstein: Whatever you want, you’ve earned it.

Guest: Do you think Baltimore moves Mullens? As valuable as he is, not sure his peak lines up with their timeline

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know, you really can get caught up in a death spiral here. If you trade everyone who doesn’t line up with what you think your timeline is, you can end up just always chasing a future that doesn’t get any closer.

TStats: In your opinion, what stats would you run as pitcher success statistics for a linear regression to test a homebrew stat?

Kevin Goldstein: It would start with some kind of K rate or swinging strike rate, or something about missing bats.

Guest: Over/under on Mets opening day salary?

Kevin Goldstein: 250+ and good for them. Good for the Mets and good for baseball.

Guest: What are the chances the N.L. comes away with a DH this year?

Kevin Goldstein: Pretty damn high. Not 100%, but way over 50%.

Justin: What would a succssful 2022 season look like for Jared Kelley?

Kevin Goldstein: Just healthy.

Lily: Thanks for holding these chats, Kevin. Mind giving your thoughts on the value Martin Maldonado brings beyond his arm/defense? Pitchers seem to really champion him.

Kevin Goldstein: He just takes care of so much in terms of game management and pitch calling. Takes care of so much. He also just brings some vibes.

Phil: Opening day roster do you expect keel Marte to be a diamondback?

Kevin Goldstein: Probably.

Anonymous Sloth: Re: the “nice guys” question: I don’t expect a lot of insight when I hear players interviewed – maybe it’s conditioning from hearing so many cookie-cutter platitudes in post-game interviews – but I listened to your podcast with McHugh a few weeks ago and he really comes across as an insightful and thoughtful guy.

Kevin Goldstein: Colin is an exceptionally insightful, thoughtful and honestly exceptionally nice guy.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok folks, entering the final stretch….

Guest: How often do pitchers steal pitches from their friends also on the staff?

Kevin Goldstein: Steal is a weird world, but pitchers are always talking to each other about pitches and grips and release and all that fun stuff.

Cito’s Mustache: In September 2022, Nate Pearson will be in the Jays’ a) rotation b) bullpen c) Injured List.

Kevin Goldstein: Let’s set percentages, because that’s how questions should be answered anyway, really. 5/65/30

Ralphie: What is valued more(or harder to find) offensive player development or pitching devopment?

Kevin Goldstein: As an industry we are WAY ahead on pitching, so hitting development is harder to do and good ones are harder to find.

Guest: Do pitchers have an advantage or disadvantage pitching against former teams?

Kevin Goldstein: Neither.

Mike R: Any time we see a young catcher with offensive upside, scouts wonder whether they should be moved somewhere else to speed up the bat. Aren’t you just losing surplus value at that position by doing that? It’s so hard to get anything from that position these days!

Kevin Goldstein: I think there’s more than just speed up the bat, there’s also maintain the bat. The physical toll of catching is just beyond what I lot of people realize.

Jim in NC: Would Correa be a “good fit” and give the Red Sox value at 10/$300?  Only only fewer years and dollars?

Kevin Goldstein: I think 300 is the minimum to get Carlos to listen, unless someone wants to do something shorter with record-breaking AAVs.

Nick S: I’ve worked as a math software tools dev for 13+ years, and one of the biggest challenges is not creating something a customer didn’t ask for (devs always think cool things are useful, even if users don’t use them). With players/coaches so hesitant to rely on analytics, how do organizations ensure the dev team isn’t developing stuff the users will never use?

Kevin Goldstein: Hopefully by working WITH the players and coaches to help define the tools before they get built. Can’t just work in a black box and say tada.

Brayan: Percentage chance that Brayan Rocchio ends up an MLB All-Star?

Kevin Goldstein: Low. But it’s low for most good prospects. Rocchio is a good prospect.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok folks, I gotta get out of here and make room for Ben Clemens (I think he’s chatting today). If you do the Xmas thing, I hope you have a great one.