Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 5/24/2021

12:00
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone and welcome to another Monday chat. Wow, what a May tournament! I was rooting for Takakeisho to complete the incredible comeback, but you have to hand it to Terunofuji for winning his second straight basho and making the July event even more interesting as he is suddenly on a possible Yokozuna path. Wakatakakage continues to impress and hopefully finally gets promoted out of Megashira, and it looks like Takayasu could go into July as an Ozeki. Should be really interesting to see how the banzuke unfolds, and if Hakuho as anything left in him. Anyway, I look forward to 90 or so minutes of fun sumo talk until Ben Clemens shows up to talk baseball. Oh wait, it looks like you fine folks want to talk about baseball as well. Ok, we can do that . . .

12:01
South Side: KG – Love your chats and the scouting notes – thank you! Jake Burger was mentioned in both the chat and notes and after the weekend has a 962 OPS in AAA.. do you factor in the time away from baseball in the past few years as a part of your eval? Does this hurt him or make his start to the season more impressive? Thanks KG!

12:01
Kevin Goldstein: I mean, it makes for a more interesting story, but if you are scouting/evaluating, all you can do is focus on what’s in front of you right now.

12:02
joe: Is it time for Luis Medina to hit AA? Or is he still walking a tad too many?

12:02
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think he needs to be rushed. Trying to develop him as a starter, so let’s get some focus on pitch efficiency before moving him up.

12:02
Bad Bill: Clearly there has been front-office turnover in lots of teams in the last couple of years, with analytics being one reason (although not the only one).  Do you see any evidence that there have been risers and fallers in their capabilities for player development as a result?  Who’s up in the age of analytics, who’s down?

12:03
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think capabilities is the right word. Certainly areas of focus. Nothing really shocking here, just focus on 4-seam over 2-seam, etc.

12:04
Bob: Michael Toglia has been more of a balanced hitter at UCLA and even on the Cape, but so far this season he has put up a strikingly TTO batting line (6 homers, 3 other hits). Any idea if this is SSS weirdness, the Rockies tinkering with some things, or anything else that would suggest a long-term change to his profile or outlook?

12:04
Kevin Goldstein: He’s was a big whiff guy in college as well. I think TTO type was what he was coming out of the draft and that’s what he will be.

12:05
Jack: What do you make of Brujan’s start? Can a level-headed person think he’s tapped into something sustainable with this power, or is this a nice flash in the pan but don’t assume anything has meaningfully changed in his profile? Or is it something else entirely (different approach, 2021 AAA ball, ect…)?

12:05
Kevin Goldstein: TONS of Brujan questions. I definitely think there has been a step forward in terms of power. I’m not ready to throw 25 HR on him or anything, but I feel better about it than I did in January, and can say Eric was more right about him than I was.

12:05
Dave: Idk if you’re a fantasy guy but I got offered Bregman for Trout in h2h points. Is that a no brainer for me given Trout’s injury?

12:06
Kevin Goldstein: I’m not a fantasy guy, and we have a great fantasy team here at FanGraphs. That said, this certainly sounds like a no-brainer to me.

12:06
Guest: Are you concerned about Jeter Downs slow start and high strikeout rate?

12:06
Kevin Goldstein: Maybe mildly.

12:06
joe: Who is one guy from your time in Houston who was “stolen” from you in the draft that you are still upset about?

12:07
Kevin Goldstein: Triston Casas.

12:07
Hunter: Is there a clear top 7 in this draft (Mayer, Lawler, Rocker/Leiter, Davis, House, and Watson)? Or are there others you would place ahead of those guys.

12:07
Kevin Goldstein: Writing about this for tomorrow. Stay tuned.

12:07
Jeb: As of today, is it basically down to Lawler or Mayer for the Pirates at #1?

12:07
Kevin Goldstein: There are more. Again, tomorrow….

12:07
The Opener: Do you think Taylor Walls will be a significant step up from Willy, a negligible one, or not at all/worse?

12:07
Kevin Goldstein: Somewhere around the same.

12:07
Tyler: Is Roansy Contreras a guy that can shoot up the rankings in the near future with the uptick in his stuff and the results at AA so far?

12:07
Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely.

12:08
Jason: This is a naive question. Does hit tool encompass both plate discipline and bat-to-ball ability? I often wonder if they could be separate scouting grades, since they seem to be distinct skills.

12:08
Kevin Goldstein: Not naive, and it’s actually kinda complicated. Plate discipline is not part of the hit tool grade, yet it can play into it as for most players better swing decisions lead to better hitting.

12:08
Dan: how concerned should the Astros be about their bullpen issues? seems they can’t win a game if they don’t get 6+ innings from their starter

12:09
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s the only clear weakness on the team, and I’m sure it will be an area to focus on for July. I’m quite sure they are already lining up potential trade targets to help in the bullpen.

12:09
Myogiryu’s top knot: What a tournament!! Terunofuji and Takakeisho have had a few head-to-heads for all the marbles already, and we’re shaping up for peak Terunofuji vs Hakuho’s last stand

12:10
Kevin Goldstein: I would love to see one last great showing for Hakuho, but I’m not especially optimistic.

12:10
Chamaco: Oswald Peraza’s blurb on Fangraphs reads: “An outstanding international find for $175,000, Peraza is a plus-run, plus-glove shortstop, and scouts see some untapped power potential.” He has 5 HRs this year, and had 5 total in the minors before this season. Is this him tapping into his untapped power potential, or small sample size/fluke?

12:10
Kevin Goldstein: Like Brujan, I do think this is a step forward. It’s not a sudden plus power grade or anything, but good to see, and it’s not some pure randomness.

12:11
Guest: Over the weekend, not only did Shelton allow position player Difo to give up 8 earned runs in a blowout loss but in low-A the organization allowed two position players to pitch, including one of their better prospects (Endy Rodriguez).  What’s your take on position players pitching in the majors and the minors?

12:11
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t really think I have a position. I just kinda “whatever” the whole thing.

12:11
Al: What parts of Manoah’s game need the most refinement?  Semi-relatedly, would a team really promote a player like that and throw them right into a game @ Yankee Stadium?  How much do teams cherry pick a date/opponent when making a promotion?

12:12
Kevin Goldstein: Cherry pick is a bit strong, but date/opponent often comes into play when these kind of decisions are made. Starting your first game at Yankee Stadium is a good example of a situation that might play into the decision a bit. I’d rather have him go at Dunedin.

12:13
P-rick: Any thoughts on Nick Pratto’s breakout? I know he made some swing adjustments since 2019, but wondering if this is SSS noise or something legit.

12:13
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s something legit, not in the sense that I think he’s an 1100 OPS guy, but I do think he’s a clearly different player, and more like the one who was the 14th pick in the draft four years ago.

12:14
Ronto: Can you give your opinion on Manoah’s third pitch?

12:14
Kevin Goldstein: Does he absolutely need one?

12:14
Tigers Fan: Who do you predict will have the best career when it is all said and done…Tatis, Acuna Jr., Soto.

12:15
Kevin Goldstein: I might go in that order today, and if you asked me tomorrow, I might totally flip it.

12:15
Sharps: How can a team improve its farm system without trading away stars?

12:15
Kevin Goldstein: By focusing on player development, using technology the right way and being consistent in what is being taught at every level (the biggest challenge).

12:16
Al: Thanks for these!  Fangraphs has a remarkable ability to find talented communicators.

12:17
Kevin Goldstein: Except for me. We love our readers and we love talking directly to them.

12:17
Gest: How do you interpret O-contact% for pitchers? Do you want it high or low? Logically, you want to avoid any contact but at the same time, contact on pitches out of the zone is often poor contact so I’ve never really known how I felt about it. You?

12:17
Kevin Goldstein: It’s honestly not a stat I focus on.

12:18
Bb: There are many films called The Tempest. Which is the one you like so much?

12:18
Kevin Goldstein: 1982, Mazursky.

12:18
Moose_Bolton: Any thoughts on Bryce Harper’s recent slump? It seems to have coincided with getting hit in the face. Is it possible he got a bit of the yips (or something similar) after such a scary incident?

12:19
Kevin Goldstein: Players can definitely get a little ancy in the box after getting hit. We can’t be sure this is why Harper is slumping, and he doesn’t seem like the type.

12:19
Kevin: Eno Sarris has been utilizing a “stuff” metric in assessing pitchers.  Is this something that teams already have internally? If so, is this something that team would use in-game to project a pitcher’s performance and determine whether or not to leave someone in?

12:20
Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely. Many teams have individual pitch grades based on velo/spin/movement and track those during games.

12:20
Ben: Looks like Chase Petty is getting some first-round buzz. Any thoughts on him?

12:20
Kevin Goldstein: Not the biggest fan. Little guy who throws VERY hard, but it’s from a low slot and it certainly doesn’t look easy. The whole thing has a bullpen feel for me.

12:21
Mugghead: Is the Kris Bubic we saw yesterday the one we should expect to see for the remainder of the season?

12:21
Kevin Goldstein: I think he’s a 4-5 starter.

12:21
Dan: do you think there’s any chance we get a double yokozuna promotion if we have another Takakeisho-Terunofuji playoff in July? Especially if Takakeisho wins said playoff and Hakuho retires. It’s not entirely unprecedented!

12:21
Kevin Goldstein: Hard to get that. You have to win two tournaments as an ozeki to get considered.

12:22
Chris: Are you and Eric going to do separate mock drafts or one together?

12:22
Kevin Goldstein: I think a combined one would be best.

12:22
Javier Báez: Since your article on April 13th, I have hit .259/.296/.509 (114 wRC+) with a K% relatively in line with my career averages. Did you jump the gun on a small sample?

12:23
Kevin Goldstein: No. I wrote about what was in front of me. I didn’t say he’s now this forever and incapable of changing.

12:23
Joe: Gunnar Henderson heading to the top 50 next year?

12:23
Kevin Goldstein: Let’s just get him into the Top 100 first….

12:23
Solitaire: Rays no longer content to simply take the extra year of control, they now must wait past super-two status as well?  Passing over both Franco and Brujan in a year they’re competing seems ugly.

12:24
Kevin Goldstein: It is ugly. The way the Rays do things is ugly.

12:24
Scotty: Jo Adell… 9 home runs so far but with a 34% K rate… is that just who this guy is?

12:24
Kevin Goldstein: Just might be. . .

12:25
Sharps: Is it possible to analyze Sumo with the same level of depth we can look at Baseball?

12:25
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think so, but it would be fun to try.

12:25
Guest: How much face to face does an MLB Owner get with a GM? Most owners have a lot of other interests and assets & I would guess pretty busy? Is this daily conversations?

12:26
Kevin Goldstein: Daily feels a bit strong, but they are certainly around a lot. Multiple discussions every week, even if they are just sticking their head in the GM’s office for a quick talk.

12:26
Jay: How soon do you think Brennan Davis can crack the MLB roster for the Cub?  2022 a legit chance?

12:27
Kevin Goldstein: He has 52 full-season league games in his career. Feels a little optimisitc.

12:27
Frank: If you had to guess – how many GM’s can actually code?

12:27
Kevin Goldstein: I can think of one. Might be missing someone.

12:27
Bill: Judging from past chats you seem to be very high on Robert Hassell. What do you think his ceiling is?

12:28
Kevin Goldstein: Everyday corner OF with plus bat, walks, average power.

12:28
grover: RE: Manoah and a 3rd pitch… are you suggesting that the era of an SP needing a 3rd pitch is fading out?

12:28
Kevin Goldstein: It should be.

12:28
asnbrv: You mentioned there absolutely believe some guys cant handle the 9th inning closing job because they are human and deal with pressure differently. Does that mean you believe in clutch as a skill to some degree?

12:29
Kevin Goldstein: In terms of both pitching in the 9th and clutch hitting, what I’m believing in is the lack of a reverse effect where good players can still be who they are and not adversely affected by the situation. I’m not saying players get better in those situations per se.

12:29
Dalton Wilcox: Have people noticed the Cubs’ pitching developmentz this year or should I wait for the end of summer?

12:29
Kevin Goldstein: They’ve noticed. They have a ton of dudes throwing harder than ever.

12:29
Jason: Are organizations preparing for the possibility of robo umps? (For example, drafting poor pitch framers higher.) Or will most wait until it’s closer to happening?

12:30
Kevin Goldstein: Yes. Many are preparing for automated strike zone. Over/under is probably 2023.

12:31
Dalton Wilcox: Chase Petty = best HS pitcher in this draft

12:31
Kevin Goldstein: Not even close.

12:31
Gest: What were your scouting thoughts on Jesse Winker?

12:31
Kevin Goldstein: Dude can really hit.

12:32
Royal fan: How do you feel about Nicolas Winding Refn’s work?  Drive was a great movie in my opinion.

12:32
Kevin Goldstein: Drive was good. Bronson was REMARKABLE.

12:32
lgm: Is there merit to the idea that players perform particularly well in seasons before they hit free agency, and isn’t that very strange if true?

12:33
Kevin Goldstein: There’s not really any merit. Feels about 50/50 in terms of under/over performing in walk years.

12:34
BigDaddeh: If offense continues to stay down (due to the new ball or whatever else) – will we see an uptick in stolen base attempts ? Not a full fledged return to Whiteyball, but at least more attempts than usual? If not, should we?

12:34
Kevin Goldstein: We are seeing the new pickoff rules in the minors leading to more stolen base attempts, and I think we should see a version of those rules in the majors.

12:35
Max: Do you think the Astros are the first domino on player housing or do you think teams are waiting to see how it goes for them? Also, could you see a GM/player having minor league player housing as a requirement for their MLB contract (like deferred money, a clause having the team donating to charity, etc)?

12:35
Kevin Goldstein: I hope it becomes the norm. As for the contract stuff, I don’t think that would be allowed.

12:35
David: What’s the worst aspect about a GM job people don’t understand?

12:35
Kevin Goldstein: The personal costs in terms of free-time/family-time.

12:35
Ben: Do you think MLB would consider a different service time system for the top 150 prospects and other players to prevent service time manipulation? For example, maybe if a consensus top 150 prospect is called up before August it counts as a full year?

12:36
Kevin Goldstein: No. There’s a chance this happens for all players, but not a select group.

12:36
Deeeedeeee: Does Brenan Davis make the majors by the end of 2022?

12:36
Kevin Goldstein: Why do I have so many Brennan Davis questions?

12:36
Terunofuji: You’ve been tasked with making THE BOARD for sumo. Who is #1? Say the qualifier is never having been Ozeki or higher.

12:37
Kevin Goldstein: Wakatakage is one, Hoshoryu is two….

12:38
BigDaddeh: What did you think of Nick Solak then and now? Interesting that he was dealt away by 2 of the more highly regarded front offices (NYY and TBR). Is it just that no one thinks he has an adequate defensive position and the bat isn’t good enough otherwise?

12:38
Kevin Goldstein: I think he’s a decent bat but not an impact one…

12:39
Otto: Do the pirates take Kumar Rocker or Jordan Lawler

12:39
Kevin Goldstein: Maybe neither…

12:39
Himself: Which is a more common phenomenon: an elite player who’s ruined by bad development or the solid player who becomes elite because of good development?

12:39
Kevin Goldstein: The latter.

12:40
Otto: Do you think MLB will adopt the shift rules being tested in the minors?

12:40
Kevin Goldstein: I hope not. Teams should be allowed to strategize.

12:40
Cole: The Giants are off to a great start, but they have an endless list of impending free agents (Posey, Belt, Crawford, nearly their entire rotation…) How would you approach this situation at the deadline? Maybe some sort of Buy/Sell hybrid to see if they can find more young controllable players?

12:40
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s without question the most fascinating situation heading into July, and I’ll just be honest. I have no idea what they are going to do!

12:41
Kent: Hey KG – watched KC & DET yesterday and was comparing the two LF’s, Benny and Grossman. Who would you rather have for the next 3-4 years? Grossman has some pop but worse defense while Benny rakes and can run but not as much power. Do orgs value one type over the other?

12:41
Kevin Goldstein: They don’t value one over the other in general. Which one is worth the most? Runs are runs.

12:41
AJ: How far ahead do teams (coaches or front office) work to set up and research upcoming pitching match ups?

12:42
Kevin Goldstein: A week-plus. It’s a constant project throughout the season.

12:42
DanQuaalude: Jason Martin, everyday player?

12:42
Kevin Goldstein: 4th/5th outfielder.

12:42
Otto: Ok who do you see the pirates taking?

12:42
Kevin Goldstein: Tomorrow….

12:43
Alf: Any Jasson Dominguez sightings? When does he make an milb appearance?

12:43
Kevin Goldstein: The Yankees are taking it slow with him, and that’s totally fine. I imagine he’ll show up in box scores once the GCL gets going. And again, that’s totally fine.

12:43
5 Run Homer: Do you think that this version of Vladdy is here to stay? Maybe not a 190 wRC+ but is it safe to say he’s one of the top 5-ish hitters in the game?

12:44
Kevin Goldstein: Top 10-ish.

12:44
Dalton Wilcox: The Pirates should take Hendry Davis, who has the most complete ressy in the draft. Yay or nay?

12:44
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think you can assuredly say that about any of the 1-1 candidates.

12:44
Gore: What do you think of Mackenzie Gore’s rough start after the problems he had last year? Is it possible that his stuff just isn’t as good as we thought it was ?

12:44
Kevin Goldstein: It’s possible that his COMMAND isn’t as good as we thought it was.

12:45
Andrew: Hey Kevin,

12:45
Kevin Goldstein: Hey Andrew.

12:45
Dalton Wilcox: Thoughts on Burl Carraway?

12:46
Kevin Goldstein: Some of the best pure stuff in all of professional baseball, and it’s not going to matter if he doesn’t throw strikes.

12:46
Dalton Wilcox: Davis hit a HR yesterday, walked 3 times in his second game back, probably why the questions

12:46
Kevin Goldstein: It’s two games.

12:46
grover: Have Selling teams seen enough minor league data to feel confident on who they want to acquire?

12:46
Kevin Goldstein: Certainly enough to start to create some initial targets.

12:46
Jacques Pederson: Does a series like the Palm Beach Cardinals had (where they faced 3 big leaguers in a row (Lugo, Thor, and DeGrom)) have any developmental pros or cons? (also, everyone should read the piece that Jake Mintz wrote about it)

12:47
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s a big pro for those kids to see what big leaguers look like.

12:47
Jacques Pederson: Who was your most locked-in 1-1 guy from the drafts you’ve really covered?

12:47
Kevin Goldstein: Locked in like no question he would go 1-1? Harper or Strasburg come to mind.

12:48
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: A couple years ago I interviewed with an AL team that was looking to bulk up its software development and analytics teams.  They were willing to provide a nice relocation package, but the pay was maybe average at best for my role and field.  I’ve heard that this is common in MLB front offices because so many people just want to be around the game.  Did you find this to be the case for most front office/operations positions?

12:49
Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely. Most people in the tech sector of baseball are could make more in a more traditional tech role. Supply/demand economics.

12:49
szakyl: I believe you’ve mentioned that makeup isn’t considered enough for prospects by the public. Is it possible for a media prospect analyst to accurately judge and implement that into prospect rankings, or does the media not have enough interaction to make that judgement?

12:49
Kevin Goldstein: They don’t have enough info.

12:49
RIP GB: Thoughts on Jake Burger? Strictly a 3B/1B guy? Any chance he has the chops for a corner OF spot?

12:50
Kevin Goldstein: I think that would be a stretch, but I’m encouraged to hear he’s been pretty solid at 3B so far. Was more of a 40-45 there for me when I saw him play in Carbondale during his draft year.

12:50
AJM: Why do some fans and media types think great command is something any pitcher could have, if they would just work at it and try?

12:50
Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea, but they are wrong.

12:51
Dave: Do teams negotiate any differently when a move involves a positive off-field aspect? For instance, Piscotty traded to Oakland while his mom is there battling ALS

12:52
Kevin Goldstein: I think that was an exceptionally special situation and kudos to both teams, but it’s a real rarity.

12:52
Guest: When you’re trying to trade with another team do you try to sell high on players you know are in their wheelhouse, ie “the astros love high spin guys, so maybe we can get more for this guy from them than elsewhere?”

12:52
Kevin Goldstein: Sure. Definitely keep your trading partner’s biases in mind.

12:52
asnbrv: Do front offices look at the umpires coming up and add that in strategy? Is who the umpire calling games 5 games away even an available piece of information?

12:53
Kevin Goldstein: Yes. Today’s umpire is definitely part of the advancing.

12:53
Ed: Thoughts on best/worst case scenario for Forrest Whitley post TJ?

12:53
Kevin Goldstein: Best is a good starting pitcher, worst is zero MLB innings. His range of potential outcomes is enormous.

12:55
Guest: Thoughts on Kyle Bradish? The Orioles have really been hyping him since the alternate site started last year, and he’s been dominant in his few starts this year.

12:55
Kevin Goldstein: The stuff is really good, and if he hones the command he could be a valuable starting pitcher.

12:56
Appa Yip Yip: If you’re in the Blue Jays front office, what’s on the list of things you need to see from Alek Manoah before you begin to have serious discussions about calling him up?

12:56
Kevin Goldstein: Nothing obvious. I’d give him a look at some point.

12:56
Jacques Pederson: How well do internal prospect rankings line up with public lists? I assume the Astros had their own rankings for other teams.

12:56
Kevin Goldstein: Everyone has their own rankings, and they tend to wildly differ from public lists.

12:57
James: Do you think Tatis should keep the two handed follow through after his eventual surgery? Looks really good with it.

12:57
Kevin Goldstein: He’s Fernando Tatis. Just let him do whatever he wants.

12:59
Guest: Can we get excited about Chris Gittens yet ?

12:59
Kevin Goldstein: No more or less than you were before.

12:59
Chris: Who are some failed prospects that you still believe in? Guys who if traded you’d be excited

12:59
Kevin Goldstein: Nick Pivetta was my answer for that question forever and then he got traded. I need a new one….

1:00
Joe Don: Isaiah Kiner-Falefa: Discuss.

1:00
Kevin Goldstein: He’s exceeded all expectations and he’s fun to watch. He’s not a star, but he’s a real player.

1:01
Roger: How accurate are FanGraphs defensive values for outfielders compared to teams’ metrics?

1:01
Kevin Goldstein: No more or less, but I still think defensive metrics have a long way to go.

1:02
Cole: Do all MiLB parks have statcast data that teams are able to access? If so, would that be something that may be available to the public one day?

1:02
Kevin Goldstein: Yes and yes.

1:02
Rex: What are your favorite pieces of baseball memorabilia you own?

1:03
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t have a ton. I have some really great stuff from the 2017 title, but obviously, that’s lost it’s luster.

1:03
Joe: Why weren’t you guys higher on Yermin Mercedes

1:03
Kevin Goldstein: Older guy, no position, no indication he’d hit THIS much. Find me the person who thought he could do this.

1:04
Otto: What can MLB do t make the game more appealing to younger audiences? I saw a study somewhere that said the average TV viewer is 58. Is that on MLB or the Tv broadcast?

1:04
Kevin Goldstein: A. Market their young stars. B. Quit having national broadcasts filled with old school guys complaining about baseball for three-plus hours. It’s infuriating.

1:05
max: Thoughts on the crazy evan carter hype? You see him yourself yet?

1:05
Kevin Goldstein: You mean the guy hitting .222 at Low-A?

1:05
Tom: Do you think some scouts dont put enough stock into minor league numbers and put too much stock into “tools”

1:06
Kevin Goldstein: I’m sure some do, but in general no. Scouts are very good at what they do.

1:07
Michael: The NBA and Player’s union have mutual interest in a mid season tournament to boost their “dog day” interest in the league. Do you think the MLB and MLBPA could conceivably have mutual interest in a similar idea for a mini league wide tournament in July?

1:07
Kevin Goldstein: Doubt it.

1:07
max: We scouting the stat line re: Carter? I assume you’ve heard the hype yourself….

1:07
Kevin Goldstein: I have. He’s good, but I’m not ready to throw him into a top 100 or anything.

1:08
D’back fan: Have you heard any update on the Kristian Robinson situation?  Never saw how Corbin Carrol got hurt to require surgery.  Did he hurt the shoulder swinging a bat, running into a wall?

1:08
Kevin Goldstein: He hurt it hitting a home run of all things. Real freak-ish injury.

1:08
Robert: Did you guys think Patrick sandoval would become a major league starter?

1:08
Kevin Goldstein: Possible back-end type. Still feel that way.

1:09
Mitch: Could you explain the rationale behind a team extending a young player before he even plays in a MLB game (Kingery, E. White, etc.)? Is it just a sign that a team really LOVES the player? And did HOU have any conversations like this when you were there?

1:09
Kevin Goldstein: Two words: Cost Control.

1:09
Gary Bettman: Which team is going to win the Stanley Cup?

1:09
Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea whose even in the playoffs. I think the playoffs have started but I’m not sure.

1:10
Lorenzo: Why do IBB count towards a pitcher’s walk rates?  Wouldn’t subtracting those walks give a more accurate assessment?  I’m thinking about relievers in extra innings, sometimes even back-to-back hitters depending on the situation.

1:10
Kevin Goldstein: Yes. Many teams use a BB-IBB metric.

1:10
Old Timer: Your thoughts on Taylor Trammell’s Jekyll and Hyde routine.  Has anything fundamentally changed in his approach?  thanks.

1:10
Kevin Goldstein: His approach has always been solid, it’s the hit tool that is questionable.

1:11
Chamaco: “The way the Rays do things is ugly.” Totally agree, but isn’t this a problem of rules and incentive structures? Are there any teams out their which you would view as the anti-Rays in this regard?

1:11
Kevin Goldstein: Yes, that is much of the problem. Hopefully the next CBA will create a structure that incentivizes teams to put their best players on the field.

1:12
Otto: How do you get into baseball statistics?

1:12
Kevin Goldstein: By becoming a member at FanGraphs!

1:12
Nick: What’s the floor/ceiling projection for Sixto Sanchez?

1:13
Kevin Goldstein: Hard to say with the injuries. I thought ceiling was a good No. 3 beforehand.

1:14
Joe: How many prospects have you evaluated where you felt their ceiling was a legit ace or MVP candidate?

1:14
Kevin Goldstein: Don’t need more than two hands to count ’em.

1:14
Ray: What does Adolis Garcia’s future look like?

1:15
Kevin Goldstein: Holy crap he’s weird and tough to evaluate. In terms of major league players where that’s the question, he’s one of the most difficult to answer. I think he’s clearly good, but I don’t know how good yet.

1:15
Jacques Pederson: Are you as high on Wander Franco as the rest of the industry?

1:15
Kevin Goldstein: I think so. Don’t see a reason why he won’t be an impact player.

1:16
Guest: Has Fabian cut down the Ks enough to sneak back into the 1st round, or do you think he’s a team’s second pick or even more of a slide?

1:16
Kevin Goldstein: The tools are very loud and I think he still goes in the first round.

1:17
jeremy: is command deceptively hard to scout?

1:17
Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s deceptively hard to grade.

1:17
lifetime O’s fan: i grew up on the late 60 to early 80’s Orioles that relied on pitching, defense, and solid hitting fed by a very productive farm system.  So far under GM Mike Elias the O’s drafts seem to be better at finding talent.  Would you say the player development side has improved across & within the system as well?

1:17
Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely it has.

1:18
Sammy So-so: The “Front Office Conference Call Agendas” was one of my favorite FG features this year. Do you think you can do more of them? Maybe one before the trading deadline and another right after the WS. Thanks.

1:18
Kevin Goldstein: Or something similar, yes. Glad you enjoyed!

1:19
Lorenzo: Most of us os old folks got into statistics by collecting and reading baseball cards.  Those were the days.

1:19
Kevin Goldstein: Were they? I didn’t like not seeing box scores until reading the newspaper the next day.

1:19
section 34: No way Takayasu makes ozeki. He won’t make 33 wins in three tournaments without 13 in July. But Takakeisho might not be too far behind Teranofuji to become a yokozuna: he has really expanded his attack. Here is my question: how far down do you think the sumo kyokai will demote Asanoyama after he not only broke protocol, but lied about it?

1:20
Kevin Goldstein: I imagine he loses his ozeki ranking, but not too far. He looked low-energy this tourney anyway, as did Shodai. ozeki needs some new blood.

1:20
Kretin: How much risk is there with Jackson Jobe?

1:21
Kevin Goldstein: No more or less than your standard HS pitching prospect with his talent level.

1:21
Natalie: How come Brett Lawrie’s career didn’t pan out? I thought he was going to be a franchise player but his MLB career ended at age 26

1:21
Kevin Goldstein: Approach collapsed.

1:21
JC: Thoughts on Jake Eder? Command comes and goes but performing well at a relatively aggressive start in AA?

1:22
Kevin Goldstein: Interesting guy to keep an eye on. Stuff was always there in high school and college but consistency never was. He has the weapons to succeed.

1:23
Roy Hobbs: Are GMs already putting out feelers for players they may go after at the trade deadline?  The Braves need some pitching in a bad way and I hope AA is getting ready.  I would think some teams would be hesitant because they aren’t definitely sellers (Giants, Red Sox)

1:23
Kevin Goldstein: They are, and I’ll be writing about the process next week.

1:23
mike sixel: At what point should the Twins start calling up minor league pitchers to get them experience for next year? Or, is that over rated?

1:24
Kevin Goldstein: That is NOT overrated, but I don’t think they should start thinking about that kind of thing until after the AS break.

1:24
Alberto: How many injuries are

1:24
Kevin Goldstein: Many injuries are.

1:24
Alberto: How many injuries are hidden from the public?

1:25
Kevin Goldstein: Tons of little ones where a IL stint is avoided. Somewhere between a third and a half of players are dealing with SOMETHING…

1:25
comish4lif: Recent podcast, you used the term “fills the box” – I’ve never heard that before. Ideally, you want a pitcher to move the ball in and out and up and down with command. So, is it “almost” as good to fill the box with control but little command?

1:26
Kevin Goldstein: It really depends on the raw stuff. If you have big big shit, you just need to fill the box. The worst the stuff is, the more you have to locate.

1:26
The Ol’ Perfessor: Is Francisco Alvarez’s bat too promising to risk having him get beat up behind the plate?

1:26
Kevin Goldstein: The problem is he can really catch….

1:27
Rebs: Does a team take a chance on and pay Hogland enough for him to still go pro this year?

1:27
Kevin Goldstein: Yes, Will likely still go in the first round.

1:27
Dalton Wilcox: Speaking of…How does Harry Ford compare to Alvarez?

1:28
Kevin Goldstein: He doesn’t. Very different players.

1:28
Dalton Wilcox: Does anyone like Harry Ford as much as I do?

1:29
Kevin Goldstein: Many do! He’ll likely go in the teens somewhere, but future position is a question mark. Not in a bad way, he’s just so athletic, that some have talked about the infield or even CF.

1:30
Alby: We waited until morning for lots of things back in the day. Newspapers thrived for years bringing you yesterday’s news today.

1:30
Kevin Goldstein: And they don’t anymore. I don’t think of that as halcyon days.

1:30
Max: thoughts on the Reds trying Alfredo Rodriguez at SS?

1:30
Kevin Goldstein: I hope they’re keeping a close eye on Jose Garcia…

1:30
Broken Bat: Where do see Bryant signing? How much arguing was there between internals on Appel over Bryant?

1:31
Kevin Goldstein: West coast is my vague answer. There was a lot of arguing that year….

1:31
Steve O: With so few minor league affiliates, will teams start drafting for need? Like if you’ve got a crowded middle infield situation in the low minors, would you take a 1B/3B or something instead?

1:31
Kevin Goldstein: Nah, take the best player. Let PD figure it out from there.

1:31
Chamaco: Long chats are awesome! Do you eat or drink anything to keep you going?

1:31
Kevin Goldstein: Nah, I’m central. Ice coffee to start and then figure out what to eat after.

1:33
grover: You’ve been very complimentary of Oakland’s FO in previous chats but what was your reaction when they drafted (and signed) Kyler Murray?

1:33
Kevin Goldstein: My understand at the time was that his football trajectory was much lower than what it became following his draft year.

1:34
Kevin Goldstein: Maybe something by The Free Design, like Kites are Fun or something to really throw them off.

1:34
Thanks…: KG – appreciate the wisdom, humor, & your time.

1:35
Kevin Goldstein: Thanks! I don’t know about the wisdom, and it’s clear some don’t like my humor, but happy to provide the time. Thanks for all the great questions and I’ll see you next week. If I didn’t get to your question, you can bug the great Ben Clemens in a bit!





Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.

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The Upside Prospectmember
2 years ago

Watched Wings of Desire this weekend after reading one of your previous chats … great film, not like much I’ve seen before