Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/13/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is patrolling the backyard and Eric and I are readying ourselves for the NYC live event and the first batch of team prospect lists

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know if he’s mentioned this yet, but we’ll be doing lists by spring training pod, since lots of pro coverage groups teams that way and it makes it easier to talk to each source once in the offseason instead of circling back a bunch of times

Kiley McDaniel: https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-live-new-york-city-2019/

Kiley McDaniel: and I just noticed it appears to be sold out already

Kiley McDaniel: so I’m just being a tease now

Kiley McDaniel: here’s the last thing i contributed to: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

Kiley McDaniel: the free agency preview, with my own predictions for contracts

Kiley McDaniel: sorry, the dog couldn’t decide if she wanted inside or outside and also i needed a snack refresh

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Wicho, Jr.: Is Odorizzi close enough behind Wheeler that the price difference might make him a better option?

Kiley McDaniel: Wheeler is better, but since they’re both 29, if Wheeler is 4×20 and Odorizzi is 3×15, I’d take Odorizzi. Wheeler has already had TJ as well.

Kiley McDaniel: that extra year is a big risk factor for starters in their 30s that aren’t frontline

Kiley McDaniel: that’s also probably the last area i’d spend $50M guaranteed, on a non-elite bulk SP

Jon G: What impact is Willson Contreras’ poor framing likely to have on his trade market? Will he be treated as a 2-3 WAR player, or does the bat give him a market that’s well above those numbers?

Kiley McDaniel: Treated as more of a 2 than a 3

Kiley McDaniel: really limits the flexibility for an NL team

securitymlb: What is proper punishment of Astros and their illegal stealing signs using technology? Will be more harsher than Redsox or Braves got?

Kiley McDaniel: Depends on the scope and involvement of various parties

Kiley McDaniel: I know this isn’t a new thought, but the Taubman stuff and this stuff isn’t surprising in the least.

Kiley McDaniel: The Astros are run by a former McKinsey guy (the top management consulting practice), they employ McKinsey for internal reviews, Taubman fits that type to a T even if he did something slightly different.

Kiley McDaniel: These people, broadly speaking, are never short on resume or even results, often push things to a breaking point in terms of loopholes, taking advantage of situations where a lack of morality is a benefit.

Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t mean that, for instance, Luhnow ordered the code red or whatever. It just isn’t surprising, because it fits a type and almost everything they’ve done fits that type.

Kiley McDaniel: Also, Eric and I have specifically heard a lot a hearsay about culture in that office and sign stealing stuff, specifically

Kiley McDaniel: So it’s not just profiling people on their background, which I know can get you in trouble when taken too far

Aaron: Who are some major-league comps for Brayan Rocchio? Great glove at shortstop, young for his level, better hit than power but starting to show some lift — what can this profile turn into?

Kiley McDaniel: A 5 or soft 6

buzz: How crazy would it be to put Patiño over May, Mize, Whitley, etc as the top RHP prospect in the game?

Kiley McDaniel: Not crazy, though not sure he gets all the way up there. He’ll be close. A club told us their analytics had Patino with the top stuff in the minors.

Fangraphs reader: How does the Astros sign stealing allegations differ from what the Red Sox were punished for in 2017?

Kiley McDaniel: Again, not clear yet, but at the very least, it appears it came after the Red Sox were caught and MLB was warned that this was serious. Similar to how the Braves got caught after the Red Sox were caught and the league was warned about int’l stuff. I guess be first is the message here?

William: Who do the Nats pivot to if they lose Rendon to replace his offense?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure, but my instinct was to say pivot to video but also I’d like to be first to point out there’s a 2020 eligible SS at Ole Miss named Anthony Servideo

Kiley McDaniel: so, I claim the “double play pivots to (Ser)video” puns

Kiley McDaniel: he’s probably not a top 2 round guy, so I don’t think he’ll be high profile enough to get headline puns

Fangraphs reader: You mentioned the other day that Wander Franco originally agreed to a different deal, but that changed.  Was that original deal also with the Rays?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope! more on this soon

Neal: Kiley! You’ve probably answered this before, but do you take an organization’s track record of developing certain types of players into account when determining FV and prospect rankings? Would, for example, Yankees pitchers be more favorably projected over Cubs pitchers?

Kiley McDaniel: We do not, but we’re more likely to change quickly when an org has a track record of “fixing” that specific kind of guy

JR: Any chance that THE BOARD can show a position of SP or RP instead of RHP or LHP?  We already can see what hand they throw with.  It would be extremely useful to see if you project them as a SP or RP, just like you project positions for hitters.

Kiley McDaniel: We thought about doing that, but the amount of guys who are stone-cold SP or RP vs. some chance of both was such that it would seem somewhat random

Kiley McDaniel: Oh and also, we have a seasonal pumpkin-spiced board for the Premier 12 tourney, including a number of players not on any pro/draft/J2 boards currently: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-premier12/summary?s…

Gary: I know Robert Puason *could* have a Luciano-like rookie season. How likely do you think it would be? J2 guys with an FV45 or better on signing day seem to have a really strong track record.

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I’d say he’s got a pretty good shot to slide up to 45+ or 50 before the end of the 2020 season. Maybe 50-60%? Pitch selection is the knock at this point, but he hasn’t been seen a ton lately, so it isn’t a strong signal.

Bob: BREAKING: Cubs will name Dan Kantrovitz VP of scouting. Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounded like CHC was looking for a new scouting czar more than a scouting director necessarily and that makes some sense. I would guess CHC generally pays better as well. Kantro had a pretty good track record running the draft with STL, has analytics and scouting background.

A different Matt: How many teams can actually afford to take on Betts’s salary?  While he has theoretical surplus value at that salary level, It’s probably close to what his AAV will be in his free agent deal.  While every team competing next year should want him, his market actually seems surprisingly limited.

Kiley McDaniel: Literally every team can afford him if they want to.

Jeff: I’ve heard Richard Gallardo was 92-95 during his very brief NWL callup (multi inning relief outings). There’s even a clip of him blacking 93 for a K in a 3-2 count out there. Where would a guy like him rank among HS pitchers in the 2020 draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Back half of the 1st round talents look pretty similar: Quinn Priester, George Kirby, Brennan Malone, Jack Leiter

Verne: After 1 year in the Brodie Era what is the industry consensus on the Mets? A mess? improving? an improving mess?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s been better than expected, but you can only make so much headway with that ownership group heavily involved.

Fox: Is there any chance the Rays deal Brandon Lowe this offseason?

Kiley McDaniel: They still have so much bulk, anyone COULD move, but a young performer that’s locked up and can fit at multiple positions but also has been banged up lately seems like the least likely type to move

Jesus montero: Are prep lhp that much less risky than right handers?

Kiley McDaniel: Not inherently, but their stuff requirements are a little lower, so there’s more margin for error. Thus, RHP tend to throw harder and thus, all things being equal, are more likely to get hurt.

Jeff: The Cubs have been choosing basketball as their second sport lately (the Morel brothers, Brennen Davis, DJ Herz)…Any opinions on good second sports for baseball players? I’ve been thinking more pitchers should swim competitively as yoots

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts tend to prefer football and wrestling, since there’s inherent discipline from playing at a high level in more military-oriented sports and not being afraid of contact usually speaks well to makeup in general

Kiley McDaniel: Broad generalities, obviously.

Kiley McDaniel: For a bigger guy like Brett Baty, hoops was good since it helps with flexibility/footwork. Soccer would also help that kind of prospect

Kiley McDaniel: Football/hoops tend to attract the best athletes, so there also some selection bias.

Quentin: Do you see any issue with organizations hiring Driveline employees but allowing them to continue to work for the company? Seems like that kind of arrangement can only benefit Driveline and hurt the orgs

Kiley McDaniel: They have that kind of leverage when there’s a limited pool of coaches with track record of a certain progressive type. Two weeks in a row with a supply/demand question about baseball labor.

1/30/2019: Matt Chapman over/under 6 fWAR in 2020?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll take under on anyone not named Trout, just on injury risk alone

Jeff: You guys have been on Dylan Carlson before it was cool. Now that he’s broken out into the mainstream, what kind of ceiling are we talking? I’m a Cubs fan and they need fun opponents to beat and then take from moving forward so I’m not not rooting for him to be this gen’s Lance Berkman

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not a ton of power impact, more like 25 HR than 35-40 HR and it’s probably a corner OF fit, so the upside isn’t sky high, but also the baseball is weird and maybe robots will be throwing the baseballs soon so WTF who knows ya know?

Astros: Need to lose some draft picks.

Kiley McDaniel: That would appear to be a starting point

Daniel: Why don’t teams pay for framing if its so valuable? ie. Tyler Flowers?

Kiley McDaniel: It appears to decline quickly when the body breaks down and there’s lots of injury risk at the position. Jason Castro looked like a stone cold pay for framing candidate and he was just ok. Cervelli fell apart right after he broke out.

Kiley McDaniel: There’s also a good bit of variance year-to-year inherently.

Kiley McDaniel: A young super-athletic guy like Realmuto would seem to be the exception. And Grandal’s unimpeachable recent track record is another. Posey has also fallen apart.

Brad: Any rumblings about big int’l FA that aren’t eligible to sign right now but will be before the end of this signing period?

Kiley McDaniel: Cuban SS Yiddi Cappe is a big name that has a deal for the next period (we think $3.5M) so he could be stolen, but doesn’t sound likely. There’s also a handful of Taiwanese prospects out there that are on THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-international/summa…

Kiley McDaniel: And Norge Vera will likely be cleared during this period: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-dispatch-cuban-right-hander-norge…

Kiley McDaniel: Lil Cespedes also may emerge (he’s already defected) to be a guy for this period

RAndoM: Are you going to have any coverage of the Trainer Partnership International Showcase this week?

Kiley McDaniel: Eric is presently there, so ask him in the chat

BRUHHHH: Can I have a family and work in baseball? Kind of a joke but don’t see a lot of “family man” types working in the game

Kiley McDaniel: Yes? I mean having a family and being a family man appear to be different things to you. There’s a lot of 60-70 hours a week type jobs at the levels you may need to be to support a family

Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t worked with a ton of fathers who definitely get tons of home time compared to a standard 9 to 5 dad

Low Level Staffer: I left my MLB front office job after this past season. What should I do next?

Kiley McDaniel: DM me or Eric, kinda depends on your situation

Kiley McDaniel: (my twitter DMs are open, FYI)

Kiley McDaniel: agreeing to take you out of the unknown DM tab and into the known one is the original swiping right

Ash: Which area of baseball ops is seeing the biggest job growth? Is it R&D with all the new tech, player development with a need to implement/teach tech, or amateur/international to gather the info?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah tech-based PD/coaching spots and R&D seems to be a growing area

Chief: Obviously it’s hard to say in the abstract, but what would a fair package for Bryant look like (assuming 2 years of club control remaining)?  Two top 50 prospects and a top 100ish guy?

Kiley McDaniel: I get asked this like every week, so just pull up last week’s chat or the one before

Kiley McDaniel: I think I settled on 2 top 100 types, but probably not a top-25 type?

Cash: Could Cashman look to deal off Andujar for a lottery ticket arm? Andujar for Daniel Lynch type deal?

Kiley McDaniel: NYY could get more than that

Kiley McDaniel: and I think they will

Vander: Any idea when you might add rankings for the 2020/21 international class to THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: Usually the winter before the sign

Kiley McDaniel: We added a guy last Jan/Feb that eventually got busted for being 4 years older

Kiley McDaniel: so doing it even earlier will have that happen more

Kiley McDaniel: (busted before he signed)

Kiley McDaniel: (which is like 99% of when it happens now)

Jeff: How fair/unfair is Drew Waters, Kyle Wright, and Kyle Muller for Willson Contreras?

Kiley McDaniel: Like way too much for ATL to give up

Kiley McDaniel: and I’m not even sure they want the Contreras type of catcher

Kiley McDaniel: Grandal is much more their type. And they have money to spend and they like prospects

Kiley McDaniel: Flowers should tell you the type of catchers they like. realmuto was a target, etc.

Heal Czech: Rosenthal says the Mariners are willing to move Mitch Haniger. A year later the Braves and Padres seem like the best fits still? And if so, what’s an appropriate package to you?

Kiley McDaniel: There have been discussions with both teams. Eric and I both heard about them during last season, but neither seemed to be urgent or anything past first-level stuff.

Kiley McDaniel: With a full FA slate, I would expect second-tier trade candidate to be on the back burner

Davis Chili: Thoughts on the Gabe Kapler hire in SF? Getting a very rough Reception in SF because of off the field concerns from his time with LA.

Kiley McDaniel: I mean those are relevant concerns, Farhan spoke to them and he wouldn’t if he thought they were unfair. His time in PHI obviously wasn’t a resounding success. It’s also easier to tear guys apart that have managed and failed rather than never managed.

Kiley McDaniel: better to have managed and failed than to have never managed before

Kiley McDaniel: (the paychecks are pretty good)

Reid: I recently heard some prospect people describe Torkelson as an “adequate” corner outfield defender. Do you share that view?

Kiley McDaniel: eh, I’ve only seen a little bit, Eric may have seen more. I think it’s a 40-45 at best out there and it probably won’t age well

Kiley McDaniel: So I wouldn’t bank on that

Epstoyer: Contreras to the Pads for Patiño, Lamet, and Morejon. Who says no or is it close?

Kiley McDaniel: You guys are really overrating Contreras’ trade value

Kiley McDaniel: Bryant is in the middle of the top 50, Contreras isn’t on it and Bryant could maybe get a top 25-50 prospect.

Kiley McDaniel: here is that list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-1-to-10/

I am the Walrus: Contreras put up in last 3 yrs.  3.9, 2.8 and 3.1 (limited by injury in 2019), he’s yet to reach his prime and he’s treated as a 2 WAR player.  How do you come to that conclusion?

Kiley McDaniel: catching doesn’t age well and teams regard his defense as more problematic than the numbers suggest. and also the teams tell me that, i’m just relaying what they’re saying.

JRG: Looks like Julio Teheran wasn’t a FA yet when you made your contract prediction post. Unless he was but wasn’t in the top 50? Any idea on a contract prediction? Love to see the M’s snag him to work into the re-building rotation.

Kiley McDaniel: he was 51-65 area, we projected him to become an FA

Kiley McDaniel: like 1×6 with incentives, maybe an option

Kiley McDaniel: could see someone going up to about 10, but the bulk of SP out there should keep his market low and him probably waiting into the new year

Matt: In light of the Cardinals hacking felonies, the Astros sign-stealing, and the Braves and Red Sox international infractions, are we just pretending that the Dodgers didn’t outright violate international laws by participating in human trafficking?  Why aren’t they being penalized?

Kiley McDaniel: it sounds like that investigation is ongoing by the DOJ and I’m guessing MLB will act when that’s wrapped up?

Joe: What can you tell us about Matt Blake? Ever meet him before?

Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t, but everyone who has seems to be raving

Quentin: Asked a genuine question looking for an opinion and got a douchey response. Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: it was like very direct, so maybe don’t be however it is that you are

Braves: Are the Braves still active in the international market, despite the sanctions?

Kiley McDaniel: sounds like yes

John: Your twitter DMs are open, you just ignore people! Lol

Kiley McDaniel: not everyone gets a swipe right my man

Billy Beane: Since it was reported that the Astros don’t tell their staff members when they’ve been asked about interviewing them, do you think that played a role in some of their higher-profile departures or are the people I would have heard of the types that they would have told?

Kiley McDaniel: i mean the people that have left have had very few good things to say and it’s not just about that sort of thing, since we don’t know about every time it has/is alleged to have happened

Billy Beane: So for Boddy specifically, do you think teams will be hesitant to let their players go to Driveline now? It seems like if you’ve got a guy training with a member of the Reds FO, it would be a lot harder to trade with the Reds out of concern they know more than you do.

Kiley McDaniel: The players often drive that decision, since they can just go on their own anyway

Joe: Is stripping an Astros title realistic? Sounds a bit too much like the NCAA, but knowing what pitch is coming is pretty significant.

Kiley McDaniel: I mean I can’t say that’s impossible, but it seems very unlikely

Homer: I don’t think everyone makes it to all your chats and/or reads all the questions.  If people are asking repetitive questions and it bothers you, why not just avoid responding to those?

Kiley McDaniel: if you want the answer and its already on the site, i tell you where it is. that’s kinda standard around here.

david: I’ve seen multiple time you say the price for Kris Bryant should be something like a top 50 and top 100 prospect. Based on history the chances of either prospect even reaching the big leagues is low. The chance of them being an impact big leaguer extremely low whereas Kris Bryant is a near lock to be a 4-7 WAR player. I think your valuation is incredibly flawed in that it assumes their is an infinite supply of Kris Bryant’s available that teams can just go out and pluck for 2 years – it completely ignores all the variables, namely supply and demand, but many others as well. Is this common thinking among FO’s in baseball?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean all of those factors are considered. This is how teams generally value players and my opinions are also based on what the market has set as the price, which is very directly set by this of analysis. You can argue about it academically and I may even agree with lots of your points, but it doesn’t really change reality.

Every situation is unique, but 2 years of Bryant at huge arbitration prices in exchange for 12-14 years of elite prospects and some throw-in lottery tickets can’t be way off.  The Blue Jays team president talks about years of control like he’s Lex Luthor collecting all of the world’s kryptonite.

Jeff: Answer to David’s question: It’s how THEY want us to think and the worst part is it is working!

Kiley McDaniel: damn we’re going down the conspiracy wormhole. LISTEN UP, SHEEPLE

Billy Beane: I ask two interesting questions and you respond with two thoughtful answers. How rude of you, BRO.

Kiley McDaniel: OK NOW I’M MAD ABOUT YOUR EVEN-HANDED ANALYSIS

Lou: I pretty much lost all respect for the Astros hitters. Fair?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean even Fiers said some of them specifically asked to not get advance word

Kiley McDaniel: which I think is some pretty principled shit, in that situation

Cito’s Mustache: How widespread do you think electronic sign-stealing in MLB? 4-5 teams doing it? 1/3 of the league?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d say single digits, around 5 or so have probably done it in some coordinated way in the last few years. And maybe more like 10-12 have tried something less coordinated that could get sanctioned if everyone knew everything

Billy Beane: KILEY, DO YOU WANT TO FIGHT ME, BECAUSE IF SO, I WILL OFFER A FANCY COCKTAIL AND MAYBE SOME APPETIZERS IF YOU WANT TO SPLIT SOME INSTEAD OF THE FIGHT!!!

Kiley McDaniel: into a ricotta bacon date if you’re asking

Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: oh and it’s time to end just like that

Kiley McDaniel: see you guys next week!