Kiley McDaniel Chat – 12/11/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from my San Diego hotel room, away from the huddled masses in the larger hotel down the street where everyone else is.

Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I have the lengthy Twins list that should be set for tomorrow

Kiley McDaniel: Some minor draft news on a 2020 player early enrolling to get into the 2022 class and skip being draft-eligible out of HS:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

So the other shoe dropped on this one and KS prep SS Robert Moore (son of Dayton) announced today that he’s early-enrolling at Arkansas in January. Low 40 FV has been moved to 2022 rankings: fangraphs.com/prospects/the-…

Kiley McDaniel@kileymcd

Our 18th prospect in the 2020 draft is reported to be skipping his HS senior year to early enroll at Virginia, be draft eligible first in 2022. This has been rumored all summer, along with 2020 prep SS Robert Moore possibly early enrolling at Arkansas fangraphs.com/prospects/the-… twitter.com/NVBaseballMag/…

11 Dec 2019

Kiley McDaniel: and, for those that haven’t heard, Eric and I are writing a book!

Kiley McDaniel:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Proud to announce that @longenhagen and I wrote a book: FUTURE VALUE, coming in April 2020.

We explore the tension between analytics and scouting along w/the state of the art & old school ways teams find superstars.

Preorder now triumphbooks.com/FutureValue for 20% off w/code FV20

22 Nov 2019

Kiley McDaniel: Also, as long requested, we have a new drop-down menu that’s prospects only on the site, so it’s easier to find all of our stuff

Kiley McDaniel: and, if you haven’t noticed, we’ve expanded our offerings on THE BOARD relating to the new MILB prospect lists to include bat control, pitch selection and max/avg exit velos, along with the stuff we’ve had in the past

Kiley McDaniel: all of that is here, in the various tabs: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa…

Kiley McDaniel: Eric should have a Mazara/Steele Walker breakdown coming soon and I think the Yankees signed someone last night as well but I just remember Jomboy and Cespedes Family BBQ stealing the show in the lobby with their nonsense feat. spilled wine

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Guest: Who do you think you are holding chat at 2:45??

Kiley McDaniel: it was a head fake. gotta keep you people on your toes

Champdo : Am I wrong for wanting the Tigers to draft MARTIN over Tork or Hancock? Of the three whose your choice?

Kiley McDaniel: We’d slightly lean Martin now, but given Martin shifting to SS and Hancock’s health history, they both could move a good bit in the first few weeks of the season. Tork has been what Tork is for years and likely won’t change.

andy: been a long time since he was a prospect, but he IS still just 24 years old… what’s the scouting take on Mazara? just is what he is at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: a soft 50, basically. can likely improve with some adjustments, but not the impact guy some were expecting

DickAllenforHOF: KIley – please help me understand the Mazara trade.  While Walker is a fringy prospect, Mazara sucks and needs to be platooned.  Couldn’t a year of Pederson be had for someone of Walker’s ranking.

Kiley McDaniel: Two years of cost-controlled MLB contributor for a fringy prospect is about the right price. Mazara is fine, but he’s not a set-it-and-forget-it solution for a contender. If it turns out it’s like how TB grabbed Avisail Garcia last year to have another solid bat in the rotation, then it’s fine. Seems like CHW is hungry to add guys, so I’ll reserve judgment until we see what else is planned.

Kiley McDaniel: But I’d expect like 1.5 WAR, which is, once again, fine

J: How do you think the Giants will handle Wilson/Luciano/Tyler Fitzgerald next year? I imagine Luciano is locked in at SS-do they move Wilson and Fitzgerald around?

Kiley McDaniel: Fitz is a SS. Luciano could end up almost anywhere long-term and Wilson profiles best at 2B. They probably all play a good bit of SS next year, I’d guess. At draft time we also mentioned that some teams kicked around the idea of converting Wilson to catcher, so that’s always a possible option.

John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt: You guys just recently updated your BOARD numbers for the Giants. Does Wilson’s numbers reflect a 2020 update, or his 2019 numbers?

Kiley McDaniel: Like his tool grades? Those are updated/didn’t change.

Kyle: Prospect cost to acquire Arenado?

Kiley McDaniel: Man, I have no idea what Colorado is doing

Jeff Win Now: Hearing Hinch say the sign stealing investigation is incredibly complex, is there a gray area for the Astros to lean on?  Like, if it was only the game feed in the clubhouse (which still shows a lot), rather than a special internal camera, would using it have been illegal in 2017?

Kiley McDaniel: It sounds like multiple teams were doing some version of having special/secret cameras for these purposes and the evidence we currently have seems to strongly point to HOU being one of those teams.

I’m sure this could be on of their defenses and it would be hard to prove what was happening since it was out of anyone’s view, but the delay on the game feed would make that approach basically impossible as I understand it, so I don’t think that would hold much water.

Adam: What do you expect Will Wilson’s position to ultimately be and can he be an above-average regular for the Giants by 2022? Would love to just hear your general thoughts about him as a prospect too.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s got 5-grade tools across the board without super loud performance, but scouts love the makeup (which is why catcher gets thrown out there) and he has a pretty mature/timely approach in that he tries to hit for power/lift even without huge raw.

Adam: Can Trent Grisham capably play RF or is his best fit likely CF on the 2020 Padres now that they’ve acquired Tommy Pham?

Kiley McDaniel: LF was the best fit in our opinion

Kiley McDaniel Jr.: Dad? Is that you?

Kiley McDaniel: https://genius.com/14675557

Billy Beane: I went to the Winter Meetings for a day and saw Ken Rosenthal but he was wearing a regular old tie, not a bow tie. Do you know who I contact about a refund?

Kiley McDaniel: never meet your heroes

Tex: Dynasty prospect draft today- Mauricio or Puason if I had to pick between the two?

Kiley McDaniel: Mauricio has so much more certainty/proximity and not that much less upside

Adam: How does Kris Bryant project in the OF? Is that asking too much of him, physically?

Kiley McDaniel: He can do it, but 3B is more valuable unless you’re full up there. Some scouts thought his best fit could be CF coming out of the draft. Sneaky quick, akin to Bellinger in some ways, but not quite as quick as Bellinger.

Mookie the Wookie : Where can I find minor league swinging strike data?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not on the player pages, but is on the leaderboards: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league/?pos=all&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8…

Stuafoo: Why aren’t more contracts front loaded? It seems like the financials could be sufficiently constructed to get around the inflation argument, while still paying players more for their most valuable years.

Kiley McDaniel: moral hazard to kick the salary can down the road and also get a little benefit in terms of NPV

J: Is the Will Wilson/Zach Cozart trade about right value wise.  Cozart is obviously a sunk cost/1 year lottery ticket, so it looks like the Giants bought the prospect Will Wilson for ~$12 million.  Is that a reasonable price?

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/braves-acquire-bronson-arroyo-t…

Kiley McDaniel: Touki was $10M for a soft 50 four years ago

Kiley McDaniel: so $12M for a 45 FV is about right when you adjust for inflation of both money, baseball money and prospects in general

Kiley McDaniel: Craig’s research has a 45 FV hitters at $6M: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outsid…

Kiley McDaniel: and the 15th overall pick (before bonus) being worth $18.4M: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

Kiley McDaniel: so 6 and 15 are the values using two different approaches and there’s some limit on the supply given you can’t just buy every prospect like you can in soccer, so I’d lean more to 15 than 6

Kiley McDaniel: which lands on almost exactly 12

Corbin Martin: You said I’m a 50 if I prove to be healthy post-TJ. But where would I rank on the DBacks list in that scenario?

Kiley McDaniel: We’re already ranked you on a fresh D’Backs list just weeks ago! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-arizona-diamondbacks/

Gerrald: Does it feel like Donaldson or bust for the Braves?

Kiley McDaniel: nah they’ve got options still. Ozuna makes a lot of sense.

Bryant Packard: Where will I play defense?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll say LF

Appa Yip Yip: With the way pitching is flying off the shelves, can Ryu top 5/100?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s steep for that injury history

Mike: Lot of annoyed Detroit fans with Avila and ownership right now. Is there any reason to have faith that this might work? Seems like ownership is just looking to make money, and Avila’s not creative enough to survive like that.

Kiley McDaniel: I mean there are a lot of teams, maybe most teams, where the owner’s goal is to not lose money and win however many games you can while not doing that, then pocket the appreciation of team value over time while owning a cool asset

Kiley McDaniel: I’d assume your team’s owner approached their team this way until proven otherwise

Kiley McDaniel: Clearly winning is almost no team’s #1 goal, or else there’d be a bunch of team in the luxury tax year after year

ScoutTheDog: Where am I?

Kiley McDaniel: In ATL with the dog watcher and her dog Rocky. There’s a pupdate on my instagram (kileymcdaniel)

Guest: Weird chat time, brah

Kiley McDaniel: explained it on twitter, but I forgot to change my phone alarm to remind me of the chat and now I’m 3 hours behind, so here we are

Joe: Is The BOARD accurate as of 12/11 or does it update as you release prospect lists?  How many 55FV or greater prospects are in baseball as of today according to you (for example?)

Kiley McDaniel: The 2020 board is accurate, just the teams we’ve done so far. We’re tying together the top 100 this week and next, to get an idea of all the other movers so we can wrap our arms around the league-wide picture

SDP Fan: This time next year – do the Padres still own Luis Patino? And what’s a good MLB comp on him?

Kiley McDaniel: I think him and Gore are the two minor leaguers they don’t want to trade

Turbo: There are a couple guys in my fantasy league that I don’t enjoy negotiating with, to the point that I just won’t try anymore. (The feeling may be mutual.) Are there major-league GMs who don’t get along and probably won’t end up trading with each other as a result? Not looking for names.

Kiley McDaniel: Yes. Differs depending on whom you ask, but there’s a few universal ones. One was fired recently.

Rockies Balboa: Arenado’s not really getting traded, is he?

Kiley McDaniel: I can’t see how or why

Alex Wells: Longenhagen said he wanted to see me in a bat-friendly environment in his AFL preview. Is a 15/2 K/BB ratio and just 1 run allowed in 15.2 IP what you were looking for? Do I FINALLY get a spot on the BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: that’s a good hype video voiceover for the Orioles list

Lamar Jackson: Is Kevin Padlo good? He was pretty well-regarded for a while, and had a monster season, but it’s hard to find any scouting reports after spring 2017.

Kiley McDaniel: He was good, then bad and now is good again. Was actually chatting with someone about him in the lobby last night.

Jim: And now to the most important question: does Steven Kwan finally make the Indians list or at least get a one liner in the others section?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s others or 35+. Still not really any tools and Ka’ai Tom is similar, didn’t make a list and didn’t make the 40-man.

Kiley McDaniel: That was another conversation in the lobby last night: the various things that clubs do that tip their hands in terms of what/whom they value. Lots of little subtle hints that we pay close attention to.

GuyinGA: Hey Kiley, hope you are doing great. What prospects in GA are worth going to see this year? Next year? (Lets be greedy!)

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s…

Kiley McDaniel: Hancock, Wilcox and Walker are the three big ones

Kiley McDaniel: they may all go in the top 10-15 picks but there isn’t another clear top 2 rounder behind them yet

mamsk: Steele Walker, any kind of sneaky upside there?

Kiley McDaniel: 45 bat, 55 power, RF fit. could be a soft 50 that starts for a few years. Maybe Josh Reddick is best case?

Eminor3rd: Is your book going to be available for Kindle?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes!

Ed: Better offensive profile, Jung or Baty?

Kiley McDaniel: Baty could be 6 bat/power and is set up now with an MLB-type approach to do that. Jung has 55 raw but doesn’t tap into it in games while also being 2 years older, but he can hit. Baty looks like a better upside bet at this point, Jung is safer bet.

Rangers Fan: Hi! Heard great things about Maximo Acosta, the new Rangers SS prospect. Will he rank highly when the new Rangers list comes out?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep! His position on the J2 rankings is a good clue: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-international/summa…

Amateur : The Braves say the offer for Kris Bryant is overwhelming.  What would an overwhelming offer be for a 5-6 win player?

Kiley McDaniel: Depends on if it’s 1 year of control or 2. He won’t get traded until that’s known.

Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you think its a strong possibility for Riley Greene to have a 2020 akin to Kelenic’s 2019? If so, are we looking at a 55FV / 60FV guy this time next year?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible! I’ll say 25% chance.

Pumpsie: The amount of work you and Eric put in is staggering. Would a GM go wrong by firing all the scouts and using your information, or is the team data that much better? I can’t imagine how it could be.

Kiley McDaniel: They have more complete TrackMan data, which we’d love to have. Makes the granular stuff like trajectory of the season, adjustments, drilling down on pitch design, etc. easier and more detailed. We get the broad strokes of this sort of thing.

Kiley McDaniel: But if we had an extra analyst or two or three and had comprehensive MILB trackman data, we would be competitive with the clubs. We’ll never get that data, so we will have trouble beating them.

Joba: Will Tampa Bay wait until the Super Two deadline in 2021 to call up Franco?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s a reasonable guess

Nils: Best thing you’ve eaten in SD so far?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve been to Juniper and Ivy every time we come out here and it was the best I’ve had it this week. Really solid small plates. Beef tartare and the yellowtail tostada stood out. Last night at Ironside, the lobster roll was very strong.

Joe: Can you paint a picture of what the Winter Meetings are like on a night like last night.  It was only 9pm west coast time, but is there still a bunch of socializing?  What are the “meetings” actually like?  Very formal, informal, do teams set-up meet-ups ahead of time?  Give us a glimpse

Kiley McDaniel: Teams generally hole up in their suites all day, then go to dinner/banquets, then go to the bar after that. So like 9 pm – Midnight is when you get to see your friends and make new ones and gossip and whatnot. During the day is lots of writers and job seekers milling around and news breakers floating around the lobby in the Baby Yoda egg glued to their phones.

bosoxguy: Thanks for your chat.  Always look forward to both of your very knowledgeable chats.  What’s your opinion of the long term upside of Tyler Freeman??  Seems to be a lot like Steele Walker where they both hit and hit a lot (high contact but not high power).  Another that can be grouped into that is a player like Nick Madrigal.  But Madrigal gets more “star” recognition I feel than the others.

Kiley McDaniel: Freeman is the less twitchy/athletic version of Madrigal

Sean: The Diamondbacks got absolutely lambasted  for packaging Touki to clear Bronson Arroyo’s salary, a move very similar to the Angels trading Will Wilson to clear Cozart’s salary yet the Angels aren’t being criticized nearly as much. Why is there such a disconnect between the two trades?

Kiley McDaniel: The Touki trade was after Arizona screwed up their budget by not anticipating the overage on a J2 signing and it came after a bunch of other head scratching moves

Matt: Are there any good books…etc. on baseball economics? Or Sports market in general? For example: Cole’s contract is a $324M capital investment in the team. Players are the “means of production” for wins, but wins do not necessarily mean revenue, which make it odd economically. Not to mention, “fan” behavior is insanely irrational.

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t know if there’s a good contemporary comprehensive baseball economics book. Seems like online analysis is where that exists?

Kiley McDaniel: and twitter is the place where you’ll be told to seize the means of production and for some reason a season pass to WWE Raw

Armchair GM: When AJ Preller calls you at 3 am, what does he say?

Kiley McDaniel: “I don’t think he’s related to Yoda, but I mean I guess he could be a clone of Yoda? Anyway, what moves should I make tomorrow?”

TP: Could a team trade for Kris Bryant for a package of PTBNLs,  with the PTBNLs conditional on the outcome of his grievance?

Kiley McDaniel: possible but why do that when you can just wait a month or two

Tyler: Mariners doing anything else?

Kiley McDaniel: always bet the over

Mark Shapiro: Have you considered a version of the Board but where you rank teams by their financial flexibility? Asking for a friend.

Kiley McDaniel: we could rank years of control

Kiley McDaniel: or crown a service time champion

dan: Cristian Pache and Austin Riley for 2 years of KB. Fair or unfair deal?

Kiley McDaniel: Braves giving up too much

Nils: What keeps FG from getting the complete TrackMan data that MLB teams have?  Is it cost or is some of the data proprietary?

Kiley McDaniel: Each team pays six figures for it, so I wouldn’t expect them to give it away.

Nolan: RE: Joe’s q and your answer, thanks for bursting my bubble of all the GMs sitting their beds, watching Storage Wars and texting about trades.

Kiley McDaniel: GM texts are a lot more GIFs and stupid jokes and hey here’s a concept what do you think than I think you people would expect

Kiley McDaniel: GMs: just like us!

Kiley McDaniel: (but significantly more busy and richer)

Nolan: What’s Baby Yoda’s FV?

Kiley McDaniel: if you don’t say 80, you’re banned

Tyler: Is Haniger traded and does he net the Mariners a top 100 prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m so glad this question didn’t mention his recent injury

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll say yes and no

scottz: When a prospect is graded and then later either doesn’t pan out or far exceeds the original grade, what is the likeliest cause of the “incorrect” original grade? I’m thinking of things like unexpected body change, psychological improvement/struggle, coached up, etc. Injury has to be #1 for not panning out (maybe?), but what else is at play?

Kiley McDaniel: 90% of it is can’t hit or got hurt

Kiley McDaniel: the rest is body/tools/stuff went south without being injured or was just a turd of a person

The West Is Wild: Congrats on the book! Was the foreword written by MATT. DAMON. by chance?

JESSE.PLEMONS.: JESSE.PLEMONS.

Ben Affleck: BEN.  AFFLECK.

Kiley McDaniel: little change up from the left coast

Kiley McDaniel: how you like them apples

Kiley McDaniel: see you weirdos next week