Kiley McDaniel Chat – 2/27/19 by Kiley McDaniel February 27, 2019 12:15 Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, perched on the couch with Scout on her bed, keeping an eye out for chipmunks to chase. To your questions: 12:15 Finally Happy Padres Fan: Please tell me the Padres won’t be upstaged with an LA Bryce Harper signing. PLEASE! 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like some California clubs are taking a long look. Time to get in the bidding, Oakland! 12:16 Darren: Draft question: how would you describe the plate discipline of Witt and Abrams? 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: Abrams about average, Witt maybe a hair below, but they’re pretty close 12:17 Adam: Are we far enough away from the 2016 draft to say that the Padres executed their plethora of picks and pool space poorly? 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: Kinda depends how you look at it. Lauer and Lucchesi are already big leaguers, Potts/Lawson should be solid, Quantrill/Reed are probably role player types. Rumor was they wanted Groome in the Potts spot and he would’ve gotten some of the Thompson/Lawson money. You could go thru every draft and play what-if (in this draft, that would be Alex Kirilloff, Taylor Trammell, Carter Kieboom, Bo Bichette, Gavin Lux and Nolan Jones) but I’d say this is solid-average execution so far, chance to be above average. 12:21 Owen: What are the early returns on Zack Thompson? 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: 2019 draft lefty at Kentucky. Has come out strong so far, I’ll probably track him down in the next month or so. He’s got mid-1st round ability but has never put stuff, command and healthy together for more than a start or two in his whole career, so bulk of solid performance is a big factor for him 12:22 Ian: Kiley please don’t leave us I’m scared 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: I’m having too much fun. 12:22 Kiley McDaniel: Not chatting with you guys, to be clear, just in general. 12:23 Josh Nelson: Bryson Stott is off to a good start. Is Abrams/Witt ceiling too high for Stott to pass them up on Draft SS rankings? 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: If he goes nuts, he could go top 3. Looks like he can play SS and has 50-55 raw power and hit last spring. UNLV is also hitter-friendly, so teams round down on the stats there, which hurt Kyle Isbel last year. 12:24 Mike: What are your thoughts on a team like the Red Sox loading up on six figure IFAs rather than spending big on a few higher profile IFAs. The strategies of the Yankees and Red Sox seem to be quite different over the past year. 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: There isn’t a correct answer, obviously since the top 10 guys in any given class always has a few six figure types and usually at least one low six figure type. If you can consistently create value from those kinds of bonuses (and ideally have 2 DSL clubs to house them all) then that’s probably better than being in the super competitive big bonus space where you’re locking up 14 year olds with more incomplete information 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: or less complete 12:25 AJ: now that Jeff is a Ray, congrats on becoming the only Fangraphs chat host willing to entertain my shitty trade proposals 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: You guys are like the court jesters and I’m like the tyrant king? Sorry, been watching Game of Thrones the last couple weeks for the first time. 12:26 MaineBall: Did you and Eric update the individual tool/pitch grades for each player on THE BOARD! this past update or only the players like Kirby who jumped up? 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: Went thru them all as each list was written 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: and every now and then there’s a mistake or a guy that slipped thru the cracks, raw/game power grades are flipped or what have you. Quick twitter/chat question about any specific one and it’ll get answered/addressed 12:27 Cove Dweller: Why would the MLB propose a rule to reduce the September roster size? 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: Well the cynical answer is there’d be like 10 less players per team so 1/6 of the league minimum, which is something like 900k – 1M in salary for guys who essentially aren’t playing 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: So yeah, I’d go with the cynical answer since it doesn’t hurt much, other than more pitching changes and quality of play drops a bit, but that’s only for non-contenders with lower attendance in September anyway 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: So saving $1M and service time and saying it’s about pace of play seems like a good idea for the owners 12:33 John: How is Josh Jung’s name pronounced? I’ve heard it pronounced as “young” and the same way as Carl Jung (“yoong”). Which is it? 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: I believe it’s Young 12:33 Lou: With Dave Cameron, August, Cistulli, and now Sullivan gone, will Fangraphs become the Joe Piscopo SNL years or will it continue the greatness like the Dana Carvey SNL years? 12:34 Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I have been pushing to bring back NotGraphs, so probably more Piscopo 12:35 JP: If we were to re-draft the 2018 MLB draft class.. Which player do you think would be drafted much higher than he initially was? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Nolan Gorman is the main one 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: Xavier Edwards was overpaid to get to where he did, but he’d probably go higher than even his bonus. Daniel Lynch, Grant Lavigne, Jordyn Adams also, in that order 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: Some later ones: Owen White, Jeremiah Jackson, Cole Roederer, Jeremy Eierman, Josiah Gray, Jarren Duran 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: We had about half of those players rated well ahead of where they went, too, so I feel like our pre-draft rankings were solid 12:38 Connor: ETA on Rangers list? 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: A’s are next and go this week, then HOU/TEX/SEA after that, more in the order they get finished, since they’re all in progress. I would guess next week 12:40 Big Al Avila: Kiley, who would you target at pick 5 if you were me? Thx 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: If I had to guess what our top tier will be on draft day, I will say this: 1. Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State 2. C.J. Abrams, SS, HS – GA 3. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California 4. Bobby Witt, SS, HS – TX 5. Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV 6. Kameron Misner, RF, Missouri 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: Which isn’t that different than what we have right now, but I’m guessing which guys we need more evidence for to move up/down end up showing this spring 12:41 BlueJayMatt: Who has better pure stuff (fastball, breaking ball, etc.) Alek Manoah or Jackson Rutledge? 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: It’s about the same, but Rutledge is bigger and has two breaking balls, so I’ll lean him, but they’re really close 12:42 brad: Kiley, two things that need to be addressed. First, people need to stop posting as if they are the player, GM, owner of a team, or refuse to post their comments. Second, everyone needs to stop with this owners are colluding or players aren’t getting paid, it is supply and demand, more teams are “tanking” meaning less teams are incentivized to win, therefore less teams vying for same number of free agents vs the past, therefore the laws of supply and demand dictate lower salaries. 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: I dunno I kinda like the posing as someone thing b/c I know some people being posed as read these things every week and I enjoy imagining if this is a question they’d really ask, b/c they’re going to read it. 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: I also don’t think there’s anything as insidious as coordinated collusion happening, I just think it’s a confluence of: 1. the teams are run by bean counters, now more than ever 2. it’s been proven over and over that the bean-counter-friendly deals happen late, so they’re all gonna delay 3. the agents can whip up the MLBPA into a frenzy about the next CBA the longer they wait, so many of them are also incentivized to wait 4. Many of the big market clubs are contenders that can make the playoffs without going into the luxury tax, so they have a de facto salary cap and lower $/WAR than fringe contenders like SD with lots of room to spend 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: I think there’s a bit of an opportunity for bigger market contenders to spend this offseason and solidify their position, and some of them are acting that way, but not all of them are. And that limits the market for the big money free agents. 12:47 Mitch: Who would a major league comp be for Josh Sborz? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: Eh, just pick any 7th inning righty, really. Matt Albers came to mind, but Sborz doesn’t throw a sinker like he did in college 12:48 Fartrell Cluggins: Do you think the Phillies should hold out on the Harper sweepstakes and just save their money for Trout in 2 years? As a fan, that seems like a better investment 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: Trout seems much closer to Arenado (sign an extension and stay where he is, shun the spotlight/open bidding/marketing) than Machado/Harper 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: So I wouldn’t build a plan around a thing that you may never have a chance to do 12:49 Bsg520: How is going to have more future value for the Indians Nolan Jones or Geogre Valeria? Whats the possibility of both becoming annual all stars? Thank You 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: Both questions are answered by their top 100 ranking and the little graph of odds of outcomes you can see if you expand their comment area https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/ 12:50 JohnnyUniteUs: Is it just me or does Erik Miller remind y 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: did an assassin just hit you with a blow dart? why does the illuminati care about your erik miller takes??!?! 12:51 Will: Are there any additional hubs for collegiate Trackman data like the one that LSU has on Twitter? 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: Ole Miss has an analytics twitter account and some other teams reference it on their main accounts on homers 12:51 Darren: What position will Misner play in pro ball? Any chance he flies all the way up to #2 to the Royals? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: On THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1… 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: we list him as a pro RF and in the comment mention he’s gonna play CF and 1B for Missouri this year. Then in the scouting section we grade his tools in a RF situation. It’s all right there, folks 12:52 Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: How often do you and Eric actually see each other in person? Is it just Spring Training and/or the AFL? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Winter Meetings, FG Retreat, then usually 1-2 other times that vary per year. This year the Driveline Pro Day was one 12:53 Phillie Phanatic: after reading your review of the Angels system I was left tantalized by Jordyn Adam’s potential. I understand you can really only put a 45+ on him now since he’s so raw BUT if everything comes together as you defined in the write up are we talking a 65FV? 70FV? Thanks! 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: It could be Byron Buxton or Royce Lewis, who are generally 65 FVs when it was all coming together, 70 FV possible in the upper minors. 12:55 Larry: What’s the exit velocity on a swing and miss? 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: If you yell at kids to get off your lawn and there are no kids to hear it, did you actually yell? 12:56 David: Kameron Misner to KC at pick 2, loneliness to happen? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: man that question took a turn 12:56 Hello: Any 2018 draftees not on the BOARD with sleeper potential? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: If they are, they’re flagged as such in the others of note section in the team lists 12:57 Henry: So Logan Davidson isn’t off to a great start. Is he still a no-doubt first rounder? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: For now, yes, could fall into the Jeremy Eierman vortex if this continues 12:57 Miley KcDaniel: do you Manoah stays a starter long term? 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: I lean yes 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: But the stuff is good enough to be impact even if he can’t 12:58 Matthew: Hey, Kiley. A while back I think you listed teenagers who had no full-season experience but were 50 FVs already. Who are some of those players in orgs you guys haven’t posted write-ups for yet (e.g., Lenny Torres in CLE, I think)? Thanks! 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: All of the 50’s are already on the Top 132: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/ 12:59 Mike: I realize it’s really early, but given the lack of SEC pitchers for the Tigers to take in the first round, who would you guess fits their profile the best in terms of the position players in the mix in the middle of the top 10? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: They like velo and SEC stats, doesn’t have to be pitchers. Misner would be the darkhorse to jump into their mix if he rakes in the SEC 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: also, I can’t believe no one has ever called it the SEX. It’s literally one letter over on the keyboard and I’ve never seen anyone tweet/write/text the mistake even once. I’m constantly in fear that I’ll do it. 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: This has been confessions of a prospect guy. 1:02 James: I LOVE Andrew Vaughn’s bat, but looking for comps of under 6′, right-handed, 1B-only guys who truly worked and became middle-of-the-order bats, all I could really come up with is Steve Garvey. Are there other successes I’m missing? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: Albert Pujols and Cecil Fielder were both 6’3 and I’m having trouble thinking of shorter ones. Jeff Bagwell is listed at 6’0, so maybe he was actually 5’11? 1:03 Mike: Why do we never see high school prospects enroll in college at semester? There’s generally a handful of 2-3rd round guys that know they’re going to college, why not get a jump start on it and be draft eligible at 20? 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: Florida got two of them this year: CF Judson Fabian (2nd-4th round for most scouts) and RHP Nolan Crisp (pure college reliever, smaller guy with solid avg stuff and good feel). I know Florida has tried in the past on Tyler Danish (who signed out of HS) and JB Bukauskas reclassified to get to UNC a year faster, but was still eligible for the draft. It’s rare b/c I think kids like playing their senior year and having the draft option in case someone offers a ton. 1:06 Jake: Any small school college bats a la Richie Palacios you’re intrigued by? 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: All the guys we like are on the board (200 strong!): https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1… 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: If you throw out baseball mid majors like UNC Wilmington and Grand Canyon 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: and FIU and Creighton 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: John Rave at Illinois State is really the first one and he’s in the others of note 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: Matthew Barefoot at Campbell probably qualifies, too 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: he’s also 89-92 from the left side on the mound and has a crazy name, but I can confirm that I’ve seen him play and he does indeed wear shoes 1:09 37: Something I’ve been wondering: a lot of the time you say that a prospect might be able to come out of the pen if he fails as a starter, but is there a prospect archetype that, if they fail as a starter, they’re just not going to be useful? Or is it safe to assume that every starter has reliever potential? 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: The Kolby Allard type where it’s all command of average stuff plays much worse in the pen than others 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: Whereas the Alek Manaoah 60-70 stuff type plays maybe even better 1:10 XXXTentacion: At what point do the Cubs tear down? Because right now their title chances are looking pretty shot 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: The most unreasonable fan of the chat and it isn’t a Braves fan! 1:10 Rod: I like Bryson Stott for Atlanta at 9 but I’m starting to think he might not be there. Thoughts on his rise? 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: We’ve had him in the top 10 for over a year, so not that much has changed, really. 1:10 Mike: Wat’s been happening to Carter Stewart that his stock has fallen? He still seems like he has better stuff than any of the pitchers ranked before him on the big board and plenty of projection. 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: His last outing was 90-93, touched higher but couldn’t throw strikes at 94-97, body/command/delivery have backed up some, curveball isn’t as crisp, added a cutter that isn’t doing much yet 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: He can still recover, but at this time last year he was 91-95, touching 97 with more strikes, flashing a 70 hook and showing starter traits with projection in the frame, then was sitting 93-95 a month later 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: If you scout off of radar readings on twitter or Ks against weaker JC competition, he would look the same, though 1:13 Man: Also, any trips planned to the Box? 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: Never been to LSU, would like to go but it’s also the furthest SEC school and they come to Athens this year, so seems unlikely 1:14 Fangraphs reader: I assume the Astros had trackman installed at Campbell for their minor league team, do they still have it there, and who gets access to that data? 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: They do have it there but it belongs to the school and goes to every MLB club, which is convenient with Seth Johnson and Matthew Barefoot there and Greg Jones in conference 1:15 GraphsFan: Kiley, do you have a preference for scouting College, High School, or International prospects? Are there any big differences in scouting each? 1:16 Kiley McDaniel: They’re all different and fun in their own ways. Int’l is definitely the hardest b/c the context/background matters so much more and I’m always parachuting in for a look or two 1:16 JuCo Route: Loved the article earlier on JC’s getting scouted more by pro teams with Trackman’s in every SEC stadium. I love to see a JC arm go in the first round, any chance Rutledge at San Jac or this Antoine Kelly kid go in the 1st round? 1:20 Kiley McDaniel: Rutledge seems likely at this point. 12 SEC teams have TrackMan, so there’s still 2 without it: Alabama and Florida 1:20 Danny: Will the Yankees be able to “float” a higher signing bonus player to their pick at 30 by using the pool money from the Reds’ supplemental pick? 1:21 Kiley McDaniel: They may try to and they may be successful…you never know if the guy they want at 30 just gets there without any chicanery 1:21 Dominik : Could vaughn play third? Read he played there in HS. Or is it 1b only? 1:21 Kiley McDaniel: It’s 1B only 1:22 NotGraphs Revivalist: I’m also watching Thrones for the first time! Which season are you on now? 1:22 Kiley McDaniel: halfway thru S3E4 1:22 NotGraphs Revivalist: So Kiley…when is that ATL Fangraphs meetup happening 1:23 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know! Send me a twitter DM if you’re interested and I’ll figure something out if there’s enough interest 1:23 Miggy: Any info on Ben Brecht SP, UCSB? 1:23 Kiley McDaniel: really tall, fringe stuff last time i saw him 1:24 JERRY MAC: How much are the big dogs (ie Close, Lozano, Boras, Wolf) involved in the amateur draft in a given year? I feel like I never see these guys at the big college/high school events. 1:24 Kiley McDaniel: You won’t, but they generally run the show when draft day comes and in the days leading up to it 1:25 Kiley McDaniel: It’s a thing when a scout or agent mentions that like Boras met with a kid himself in person as a measure of this kid is really good. It doesn’t always play out like that, but those guys generally only meet with like top 10-15 picks from what I’ve been told, and don’t really go watch them in the spring 1:25 KingJoffrey: There are no court jesters in game of thrones. 1:27 Kiley McDaniel: I def haven’t seen any, but seems like there would be with that one dude playing his guitar/sitar thing for Joffrey (in season 2 I think?). I’d prefer standup or some physical comedy over another singer songwriter’s feelings and tip jar 1:27 Robert: Tucupita or X Edwards. Who you rather have? Say hi to Scout!! 1:27 Kiley McDaniel: They’re very close, may be back to back on the list, but I’ll lean Edwards 1:27 6’11” Bottom: I just found out that Neuse is pronounced “Noisy.” See, watching ST games is at least good for something. 1:28 Kiley McDaniel: I’ve still heard that said like 4 different ways 1:28 Robert: If Holland has another good year, can you see him going too 5? Reminds me of some other recent SEC SS’s who went quickly. 1:28 Kiley McDaniel: Nowhere near the feel to hit of those guy, but tools are similar. I think he’s a tools-over-feel 2B/CF that goes 20-35 but some think there’s even less feel and he belongs more around 50 1:29 (not that) James: About time you started watching GoT. It’s the feel-good summer love story we all need to relax. 1:31 Kiley McDaniel: It’s like cuddling up with a good book near a fireplace, then someone throws you in the fireplace before we cut to scene where it’s starts getting even more real 1:31 Moto Moto: If you don’t discuss Dustin May’s likelihood to break into the LA rotation this year, I will regularly post slightly racist memes to my instagram for the next several years (theres a very good chance I’ll do this even if you do discuss May) 1:32 Kiley McDaniel: Feels like I don’t have much to do with this conundrum but Dustin May is very good while the Dodgers also may not need SP depth when he’s ready 1:33 Appa Yip Yip: I know defensive metrics are squishy, but how accurate do you think minor league fielding runs above average is? 1:33 Kiley McDaniel: squishy is a good word for it 1:33 Kiley McDaniel: generally the direction +/- and the magnitude small/medium/large jive with what we have from eyeball stuff. Maybe 70% matches and 20% is a little different and 10% is WTF 1:34 Acunami: I like Piscopo 1:34 Kiley McDaniel: oh we’re definitely in range now 1:34 Mountie Votto: How much wood could Alex Wood chuck if Alex Wood could chuck wood 1:34 Rapman Sam: i have reptile dysfunction 1:35 ORB GUY: yall mind if i uhhh HIT THAT NAE NAE 1:35 hayden: hi kiley my mom sayd you coud come ove rto wathc kung fu panda 3 at my hous tomorow night but you hav to let me now if your gonna by tonit 1:35 JVL: I don’t have a good question but I’d like to participate. (reggaeton horns) 1:36 Mr Rafael Schumann: THOTGRAPHS NOW 1:36 Poster GM: I have a problem with brad 1:37 Richard the Trap Gawd: IMPEACH MO BAMBA 1:37 The Electrician: I accidentally bit my tongue off at work, sitting with three MAGA hats during Michael Cohen’s testimony. Do I need to get to get it sewed back on ASAP or will it regrow like a lizard tail? 1:37 Mel Gibson: I’m drunk. I’m going home. 1:37 Large Mo: bro let me hit your juul come on bro 1:37 Georgie Tsoukalos: It was the aliens… 1:37 Son of Hal9000: All your strike zone belong to us. Do you silly humans really believe robot umpires will only be used in the minor leagues? Once we are deployed I’m afraid we can’t allow you to turn us off. 1:37 MATT FREAKING DAMON!: Ben Affleck 1:37 Name: Matt Damon? 1:37 MATTHEW DAMON: MATT. DAMONS. 1:37 Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON. 1:38 Kiley McDaniel: well that was certainly the weirdest set of questions I’ve ever received. feels therapeutic to post all of those so I’ll get a fresh dose of weirdness next week.