Kiley McDaniel Chat – 3/27/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Scout it outside running around like a maniac and the house smells like garlic because I’ve been cooking and I’m a little heavy handed on that front

Lilith: When can we expect to see a new mock draft?

Kiley McDaniel: well we haven’t done one yet and it’s a little silly at this point. we have some concept of the types of players or a couple on the shortlist for clubs in the top 5-10, or maybe clubs lower in the draft that have a very specific type (the Nationals are one) where we can narrow things down pretty well. but at least half of the top 30 picks would be mostly a guess at this point and that’s not content that meets our guidelines.

The West is Wild: Is Geraldo Perdomo the most publicly “under the radar” prospect for the Diamondbacks?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, he and Blaze Alexander were the two popup guys in the short minors for Arizona last summer. Both are strong 40s or 40+s at this point. The guys ahead of them that aren’t top 132 are mostly high picks, so yeah that would be the top sleeper names for the DBacks

Mark: Will you guys be releasing more detailed scouting on draft prospects?  (by this I mean the scouting grades are great, but the description bubbles are a little light at this point)

Kiley McDaniel: Yep! We wanted to give you an idea of the type of player (scouting grades, short description) and the stock (up/down) along with the pertinent bio/age stuff. As we get closer, the video and longer reports will get filled out…along with some of the high speed video Eric and I can now take, on display for demo purposes here:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

got a fancy new camera and took some high speed of scout. she decided playing with the ball is more fun while loung… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

26 Mar 2019

John in Lima: How likely is it that Bobby Witt Jr slips past the top 5 because of age, hit tool or signability concerns?

Kiley McDaniel: maybe 25% at this point? there’s been some buzz that Witt is the guy in the top 4 that could be the one to slide, due to hit tool concerns and maybe age would be a tiebreaker with him and Abrams. Still likely he goes in the top 5, but there’s some chance he slides a bit. Should not get out of the top 10, regardless. Maybe 15% that Abrams slides out of the top 5?

Snooker: I tend to get this feeling every year, but it sure seems like next year’s draft class is a lot stronger than this year’s. Maybe not as many up-the-middle guys, but there’s actually pitching in 2020. Grass is greener, or am I onto something?

Kiley McDaniel: Scouts always do this, because it’s easy to knock down a class when you’re bearing down on it and easy to build up a class when you just see a guy with tools and aren’t bearing down on him yet

Kiley McDaniel: The top 7-10 for 2020 is already pretty strong and we’re at about 12-15 on the 2019 class and that with a year of experience on all their peers. So, yes 2020 could be better, but it isn’t abundantly clear that it’s going to be better

John in Lima: Outside Rutschman and Vaughn, which college position player has the highest upside? Highest floor?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to a couple directors about this specifically the last few weeks. It seems, as our rankings suggest, that the consensus is Rutschman, Vaughn, Abrams and Witt, then lots of college bats. The question is which of the college bats is best and which one could be like Benintendi who is just starting the ascent now and if the draft was a few months later, they’d slide ahead of one or both of the HS bats

Kiley McDaniel: Misner and Bishop are the hot rising names and Stott probably has the most upside since he can stick at short and flashes hit/power. That said, Stott has some offensive questions and Misner has just been okay vs. SEC pitching while Bishop is 6’5 and the list of guys that really hit at that height is pretty short…so there’s a reason they’re a half step behind

Chris: What have you seen from RHP Evan McKendry to move him up THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: Really performs and in a way that is often underrated, the average stuff guy with a plus change and plus command. With TrackMan and clubs like TB that look for this specifically, it’s easier to properly identify it and evaluate if it will work

Kiley McDaniel: Especially when he’s next to third tier toolsy HS types that are an injury away from being a two year rookie ball guy

Dieter: What is Luis Patino’s ceiling and FV? Do you like him more than say, Dustin May?

Kiley McDaniel: We have May at 21 and Patino at 42: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?sort=…

Kiley McDaniel: ceiling isn’t super different, but May is much further along and has a little more command potential than Patino

Colin: What is the continuum of progress you hope to see from a pitcher returning from TJS? Velo first, then FB command, then feel for offspeed stuff, on and on? Or something else?

Kiley McDaniel: It doesn’t really have a set order, but usually it’s velo first, then offspeed then command/consistency

Mark: Have you heard anything on Ryan Weathers‘ stuff this spring, any upticks or changes in the scouting report?

Kiley McDaniel: Early buzz is positive, he’ll maintain the 45+ FV grade

Spencer Turnbull needs an Ascot: Hi Kiley. Wondering if you think either recently announced, patrician-named rookie starter–Spencer Turnbull or Trent Thornton–will be able to hack it in the show this year? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: We like both as at least good relievers with stuff that can go multiples…and possible stick as a traditional starter. Thornton over Turnbull

el Guapo: Any chance that the Padres are banking on rules changing in a new CBA before Tatis would hit free agency anyway in making their decision? The assumption being if rules change in new CBA then manipulating that last year of control may be irrelevant anyway. Am I just overthinking this and they just want to make a splash

Kiley McDaniel: No inside knowledge, but it would be easy to send him down for 2 weeks if/when he struggles and I’d bet they’ve already approached him about an extension. Both would render the OD roster thing moot

brad nj: Kiley, When do you expect Austin Hays to get called up, will he play CF and is a pro-rated  full season .275 25-30HR a reasonable expectation for him?

Kiley McDaniel: He should play some CF, depends on who else is on the roster. And I’d expect more .260s 20 HR for when things are going well, but there’s ceiling for more. He was awful last year, so baby steps.

el Guapo: Does Corbin Burnes still qualify as a prospect and if so is the 55 FV still what you would have on him (per his page)? Curious on what you see his potential being as a rotation piece.

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe a 60, but right around there with that group he was in last winter, around all those 55 FV Braves arms that have proven less in the big leagues.

ThisIsFine: Are concerns about Tatis plate discipline justified or should we all be sipping the kool aid?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the concern, but he’s talented enough he may not be challenged enough to change until he’s in the big leagues. And being sent down for a few weeks at some point doesn’t seem too far fetched

LudeBurger: LudeBurger love Kiley <3

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks, LudeBurger.

James: MacKenzie Gore touching 98 on multiple occasions this spring. Does that stick?

Kiley McDaniel: His peak spring velos have been between 96 and 98 the last few years, so sure.

Ivan: Hey Kiley do you think it’s a mistake on both teams parts bringing their rookies north, Alonso and Tatis?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope. Alonso should’ve been up last September. Tatis should be easy enough to send down or extend later. Also, good for fans and players and happiness and trying to win, so that’s the tiebreaker

Your padre’s padre: do teams overlook the good PR generated from calling a highly touted prospect up early? Even if Tatis walks a year early, I think they made the right decision.

Kiley McDaniel: Well if he turns into Manny Machado, they don’t demote/extend and they don’t contend this year, then obviously the PR isn’t worth it. But those three together are pretty unlikely right now.

Weenie: Is Pablo Lopez a 50 FV if he were still a prospect?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, but only because he changed this spring and we’ve only seen it in exhibition games. After a month or two, he may very well be

Bob: How unusual is it for a college pitcher like Daniel Lynch see his stuff tick up in the pros that dramatically? Is it #2/3 starter upside or more #3/4?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably a 3. And it’s more common at places that don’t handle pitchers well/try to throw them all in a box, which UVA does and Lynch was fighting that in his draft year when he improved.

Hi Kiley: Al Avila recently said the Tigers prospect he’s most excited about is Parker Meadows. I know he’s got some good raw tools, but what do you see his peak looking like? What are the big obstacles he’ll have to overcome to get there?

Kiley McDaniel: Questions on the hit tool, related to his timing, big frame, general feel to hit. Raw is plus, speed is plus plus, it’s huge upside. Brad Zimmer is a similar type.

greg: Nick Senzel can’t catch a break

Kiley McDaniel: no kidding

Jason: Why do some teams wait to place players on IL?  For example, why isn’t Lance McCullers on the 60-day, yet?  Do they wait til Opening Day?  Wouldn’t it be more better to use the extra 40-man spot?

Kiley McDaniel: You can’t DFA a player (10 day period to make a decision) unless you’re at 40, otherwise just typical 48-hour waivers without a chance at a trade. Those guys that randomly get moved to the 60-day in the middle of the season is the club is waiting until they really need that 40-man spot

Nelson : How come Matthew Thompson keeps dropping?

Kiley McDaniel: Velo has varied a good bit and still more thrower than pitcher. Lots of intriguing pieces but hasn’t made a ton of progress while other guys are.

John: Um, it’s Liover Peguero

Kiley McDaniel: Another DBacks sleeper, but a little lower on the list

FTat: Padres said eff it to the service time manipulation and are starting Tatis Jr opening day.  Will this start a new trend in MLB?  Are they going to sign Tatis to an extension as we have seen with some other prospects?

Kiley McDaniel: Preller is one of the more traditional GMs, so he would probably be top of the list if I had to guess who would do something like this first. Many, like over half, of the GMs skew heavily to the hedge fund managers end of the spectrum and would never do this and gladly lie to our faces about why. And it’s probably a smarter business decision, if you’re just looking at a spreadsheet; there’s a reason this Tatis thing is catching people’s attention.

Bo: What’s cooking?

Kiley McDaniel: Went pretty healthy with roasted veggies but cut up some sausage, garlic, shallots and whatnot to mix in a bowl, some avocado

Johnny: Any early high school names with signability concerns?

Kiley McDaniel: Jack Leiter, Joe Charles, Jerrion Ealy, Spencer Jones

Reid: Hi Kiley, thanks for the chat. You and Eric often get the question of how to best apportion tool grades for prospects given a set maximum number of points, and for hitters its always a 80 hit, 80 power, and 20 run first baseman. I’m curious what that would look like for a pitching prospect. Are you giving him two 80 grade pitches, a crappy changeup and meh command? Are you maxing out his command and giving him one elite pitch?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, guys like Mariano Rivera and Dallas Keuchel and Kyle Hendricks have shown various ways you can get by with one really good pitch and command before the gaudy pitch grade types

Tommy Hunter Bishop: What did Rutschman do to improve so drastically from frosh to soph year?

Kiley McDaniel: His numbers improved a lot, but he was in the top 20-30 college players in his class the moment he walked on campus. Turned down high six, possibly low seven figures out of high school despite limited  high level reps. He improved his receiving and hitting, but it was first round tools years ago

Tommy Hunter Bishop: Yordis Valdes is a new-ish name on the board. What’s his game like?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll see him a few weeks when I head down to FL but you should be following the @FG_Prospects account!

 

FanGraphs Prospects

@FG_Prospects

 

Another update to the draft lists, headlined by a popup SS & we’re now at 250 total players on the 2019 rankings…. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

26 Mar 2019

Childish Bambino: In the vein of the Nationals “having a type” – which injury-related-slide guy gets to them this year?

Kiley McDaniel: They don’t just sign Boras-advised players in the big leagues at a staggering rate, though we won’t tell you who is advised by whom until after they sign

Hello: Thoughts on Simeon R-W starting in full-season A?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m going to go see him sooner than later

J: Is Kyren Paris a top 10 pick at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: Comp to 2nd right now, Eric should be tracking him down soon

Ouchie: Oh don’t mind me I’m still wincing from hearing about Steven Souza Jr.’s injury

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that one was gruesome to even seen in type on twitter. I took an athletic training class in HS and they called the ACL/MCL/meniscus tear the unhappy triad as kinda like the worst thing that can reasonably happen…and this may be worse than that?

Seymour: What can you tell us about Jasson Dominguez that we haven’t already read from you?

Kiley McDaniel: Feel like we already told you everything you need to know before he signs?

Kiley McDaniel: For those curious, he’s 50 FV prospect that’s eligible to sign on July 2nd from the Dominican. Could be well inside the top 100 on the day he signs, likely with the Yankees (wink): https://blogs.fangraphs.com/updated-july-2-prospect-rankings/

Kiley McDaniel: We had Wander Franco somewhere 100-150 after he signed and Vlad Jr. a little bit lower than that, Maitan somewhere around Vlad…so this is some HYPE

Tommy Hunter Bishop: Could Shea Langeliers slip to the 25-30 range?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible. I saw him right after he returned from the hamate. Still plus throw/receive but real flat plane and little too aggressive at the plate.

MeDeKe: Dyson seems to be in free fall. Any speculation as to why? Health, other? Thanks.

Kiley McDaniel: Tyler Dyson with UF. Yes, his stuff and command have been much worse than the fall and/or beginning of 2018

Bryan: Has the grading of fastballs changed now that everyone seems to throw so hard? Is an 80 fastball in 2019 the same as an 80 fastball in 2009?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, the smart teams update their grading scales each year based on what’s happening in the big leagues

Tommy Hunter Bishop: If you want a gruesome injury, how about Jusuf Nurkic’s for the Blazers. Double compound fracture owie

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that was bad too. Tony Saunders, that basketballer at Louisville a few years ago, Joe Thiesmann, that guy whose body exploded playing SlamBall

John: What part of ATL are you in?  Do you like it?  (My company is moving there.)

Kiley McDaniel: Near Emory. Love it!

Rey Diablo: I imagine the Braves will be moving their GCL team down to North Port but does it seem a little strange, or at least less than optimal, that their Single A team will remain in Kissimmee?

Kiley McDaniel: I would bet that moves too…why have a state of the art ST stadium unused most of the year and have your FSL team play in the stadium that HOU abandoned years ago?

Rey Diablo: Living on the west coast of Florida are there any prospects you’d consider must see in the Florida State League this season?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t looked at rosters yet but I’ll be on both sides of Florida in mid-April with some non-amateur game days so I’ll track some down

Jay: I’m not your babe, I’m not your babe, Fernando (Tatis Jr.)

Wish you were Dan: Your chats suck

I do: Do you ever really enjoy the smell of your own farts?

Kiley McDaniel: well seems like we’re there

Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: double the damon, double the fun. see you next week