Kiley McDaniel Chat – 4/17/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Had a lunch date with friends of the chat Nick Piecoro and Keith Law (name drops) but I’m here to chat with you

Kiley McDaniel: Podcast went up today about my recent Florida trip, extension talk and GOT hot takes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-kiley-mcdaniel-welcomes-th…

Jeff: Any new buzz inside the top 10 of the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: An unusual amount of KC fans were interested/outraged/surprised that I said last week most of the industry thinks KC will take Andrew Vaughn at 2. Still seems that way, but talked to some folks this week that think they’ll go with Bobby Witt, conceding that it’s probably one of the two. CHW would definitely not pass on Vaughn if KC did and rumors have MIA leaning college as well, but the top college guy at that point isn’t as clear. A recent shuffle at the top of our rankings has Nick Lodolo and JJ Bleday as their best options.

Shooter : Couple of draft questions…what are you hearing on Kody Hoese, and what the hell happened to Mitchell Senger?

Kiley McDaniel: Senger is a lefty from Stetson, a mid major school with a sneaky-good track record for pitching (Kluber, deGrom, Logan Gilbert, Mitchell Jordan, now Senger). He got the yips early and now is back on track, out of the pen. Could be a Nick Sprengel-type late flier based on a solid track record.

Kiley McDaniel: Hoese is a popup 3B at Tulane that sounds like someone will take in the 2nd round this year. Was eligible last year but not really on the radar, was taken late. Stronger and with a better approach this year, he’s putting up bonkers numbers, may only be a 4 bat, is 22 on draft day and doesn’t have 60 raw power, but can play 3B and performers with some tools kinda run out around the late 2nd round, so there he is.

The West is Wild: How many “Matt Damon’s” usually type in MATT. DAMON. in a given chat? Is it a solo effort or is this an Eno ludes thing now?

Kiley McDaniel: Usually only 1 or 2, which is kinda amazing? I think it’s a solo effort.

Tommy N.: Ryan Weathers’ new slider gives him a potential 60 FV pitch?

Kiley McDaniel: Breaking ball has always been above, but sounds like he may be scooting up to a 50 FV in the next update if he keeps pitching like this.

Greg: Is Hunter Barco a guy with signability issues?

Kiley McDaniel: I wouldn’t say issues in that he’s gonna be unsignable past a certain very early pick, but he strikes me as a Joey Wentz-type situation where he likely goes in the comp round for overslot. Jack Leiter is a similar situation, but may have a price as high as $4M+, so he could be a school guy.

The Kid: Was playing around with THE BOARD and noticed there is no FV command grade above a 60. How is this so? Shouldn’t there be at least a few 65/70+ given the nature of the scouting scale?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s an argument to be made that we don’t know if someone will have 70 CMD with enough certainty to project it as a median grade until there’s some MLB performance. We know some guys on the board will be an 80 bat or 80 command, but we don’t project it b/c we’re projecting a median outcome. That’s why there isn’t an 80 FV prospect and only like 1-2 70 FV prospects at a given time. An 80 FV prospect is “we’ve never seen you face MLB pitching but we think you’re gonna be a 6+ WAR guy multiple times”. I don’t think the consensus has ever been that for anyone, but if it was it was a handful of guys ever, like A-Rod.

Anderson’s BABIP: Lodolo’s ceiling, solid mid-rotation arm?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible #2 if he puts all the elements together. Depending on the day, he’ll show three 60 pitches and 55 command, but I don’t think he’s shown all 4 in any one start this year.

No Bunts: Could Lodolo be a realistic option at #3?

Kiley McDaniel: It sounds like he is in CHW’s mix with some college bats if Rutschman-Vaughn go 1-2

BillyB: Yordan Alvarez is raking at AAA as a 21 year old.  Regret kicking him out of your top 100?

Kiley McDaniel: He might be a DH-only guy, so no

Bobby Higginson: Of the college shortstops ranked around the first round (Stott/Wilson/Shewmake/Jones/Davidson) which are the most likely to have to move off the position at the pro level?

Kiley McDaniel: Stott is a yes, Davidson is a little lower but yes, Shewmake is fine and is about 50/50 to be SS/2B,, Jones has the tools but may fit better at 2B or CF, Wilson is probably 2B or C but passable at SS.

Anya: Any early word on how Pache and Waters look?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard much, but I’ll go see that team soon enough. Kinda waiting for Luis Robert to get to Birmingham to make that trip

BlueJayMatt: Are you hearing Toronto linked with any names at pick 11? Does Hunter Bishop make it to our pick? If not how about JJ Bleday?

Kiley McDaniel: Same as last week, not hearing a lot of specifics past the top 4, since that’s still a bit muddled. Talked to a couple guys this week that spoke in tiers, but that’s reflected in the rankings now, if teams are more best available that a strong specific type preference

Pickle Nick: How far does Carter Stewart fall come June ? As a JUCO guy at what point (round) does he likely go back to school to rebuild value?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like he wants to sign and interest is anywhere from 15 to 45 to not really interested, depending on the team

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess he goes 20 to 35

Reid: Hi Kiley, thanks for the chat. At what point do high school pitchers and high school righties become undervalued in the draft, simply because enough teams refuse to take them? Thinking of Liberatore falling last year despite the obvious gifts.

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a tough market to square because the late developments of 1) medicals, which we don’t see and only really hear about post draft and 2) a club having the nerve to pick a prep RHP end up dictating where these guys go.

Kiley McDaniel: A guy could be a consensus 10-15 talent, but 10-12 all had access to higher-ranked guys, 13 doesn’t like his arm action, 14-15 are a little worried about the medical, 16-17 don’t take prep RHP, 18-19 found an underslot candidate they like just as much and now that prep RHP is going 20th and it wasn’t like that consensus was wrong, it just shook out unluckily for him

Kiley McDaniel: this sort of thing happens a lot more for prep RHP than other demographics

Freddy : If both were available in this draft who would be picked higher Spencer Torkelson or Andrew Vaughn?

Kiley McDaniel: Vaughn

AK: Whats the upside on Tarik Skubal? Is there long-term starter potential or is he destined for the bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel: breaking ball has backed up from my first look at him the fall before he signed, but changeup had improved some and he hit 97. There’s some chance he can start, but feels to me more like inventory starter that ends up being a middle/long reliever

Hinkie: Noah Song is a senior and has a Naval commitment, but he looks like an interesting prospect .  How does all this play out for him?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like 3rd-4th for someone and since he’s 22 it’s probably underslot

Mark: How did Steven Kwan not make your Indians list? What’s the knock on him? Isn’t he a big college version of your R. Palacios writeup?

Kiley McDaniel: Palacios is a plus-plus runner that plays middle infield and has some bat speed. Kwan has significantly less tools, mostly fringy, which to be fair he outperforms. Will be interested to see how Kwan performs at higher levels. Probably a bench OF at best and likely more of an inventory guy.

Oliver : Hi Kiley. Do you know of any signability concerns for players, or is it too soon? Also, are you allowed to tell us about them? Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel: We don’t always report every piece of info we have about makeup and signability for various reasons, but it’s all considered in rankings/mocks. Typically the guys committed to the best schools (combo of education/baseball) like UVA/Vandy, etc. are safe bets to all have a high number and the multi-sport guys are usually tougher signs as both groups have extra leverage. Jack Leiter is definitely the big one now, due in large part to Vandy/wealthy family and Ealy/Hampton as football guys are also concerns but both probably sign if they go in a good spot on day 1 as expected. There will be more that pop up later, but we mostly knew the tough signs at this point last year, like Cole Wilcox and Kumar Rocker. If prep RHP that slide 10 picks past their consensus/expectation, lots of them become kinda unsignable b/c the money starts to dry up.

Mark: Any draftees connected to the Indians?

Kiley McDaniel: Not specifically, but their type are 18.0 or younger and/or Northern HS kids along with college performers, so you can pick some names off the list that they probably like, such as Keoni Cavaco, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe

Freddy : Any news on players who are rising or falling in the draft for June, or is your board up to date on everything you’ve been hearing?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s an update that’s about to go live that’s mostly expanding the 2020 and 2021 lists, so yes 2019 is basically what we think at this point

Ryan: Where did Josh Green of Arizona come from? How did that guy last to the 14th round?

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard why yet, but the stuff jumped in a relief role after being a solid senior sign that had about average stuff as a starter at a mid major school

William Eppler: I would imagine there is some interest for Swihart, who do you see getting him and what will it take?

Kiley McDaniel: I would imagine he’s got another 1-2 years of teams claiming/trading for him and seeing if they can figure it out and if they can’t then he turns in Dustin Ackley and kicks around AAA for a few more years

Jim: Will A. Shenton really drop out of the 3 rounds despite his track record or is your placement just bearish?

Kiley McDaniel: Off the Cape most teams had him in the comp to 2nd round and he’s regressed this year to where if you had no history, you’d say he’s a 6th round type that may actually just go in the 11th round. Not sure how those two things get squared, so I’ll guess 4th round?

Kiley McDaniel: and I say 11th round since you can pay ~$200k more easily there than in the 6th round due to the bonus pool rules.

D back fan: Is Corbin Carroll at 16 realistic or is he long gone?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably gone unless you can buy him down

Jim: Who has the best change-up in this college draft class?

Kiley McDaniel: Evan McKendry at Miami

Kiley McDaniel: There’s some chance, maybe 10% that he’s Kyle Hendricks

Kiley McDaniel: bigger chance that he’s a touch and feel backend guy

D back fan: Hearing anything for D-Backs at 16 and 26? Go underslot at 26 with a safe sign considering they forfeit the pick if unsigned? Are they in on Tommy Hunter or Stinson?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s maybe 6-8 players they can’t get to those picks, so really everyone else in the class is on the board. Don’t think they even have an idea how they want to approach it yet in a specific sense.

Kiley McDaniel: Where we see their director, VP, GM, special assistants showing up in the coming month will tell us a lot

Kiley McDaniel: and we pay very close attention to that stuff, as do other clubs

Gary: What would be considered a good year for Osiel Rodriguez? Seems like you guys are aggressive in putting a 40+ on him already.

Kiley McDaniel: He basically already does everything you can ask him to do: good frame, good delivery, good feel, flashes 55 to 60 stuff, has performed everywhere. You just need him to keep it up and not get hurt or have mysterious stuff loss. That obviously happens more than anyone would like to see, so we have to get some track record to move him up, but the 40+ represents that very strong starting point he has.

Adam: If a relatively advanced pitcher can get away with throwing fastballs right past a minor league level of pitchers, how quickly do teams promote them to force/encourage the development of other pitches?

Kiley McDaniel: Often you have to literally make them do it by taking away/putting a quota on the pitch they already excel with, but have to be careful not to shelve it in such a way that they lose feel for it

Adam: It’s been interesting to read that two of the Padres more heralded pitching prospects, Mackenzie Gore and Chris Paddack, describe themselves as not really big believers in spin rate. If you’re on a coaching staff or in a front office, do you try harder to emphasize the importance to them or allow them the latitude to eventually come around, if at all?

Kiley McDaniel: They can’t really change it, and neither of them have crazy spin rates, so if they just pitch in the way they need to pitch with their stuff, why would it matter if they “believe” in the number or not?

Jim: Who are the best seniors in this draft that are getting some mid round buzz?

Kiley McDaniel: They are marked with ** on THE BOARD

Kiley McDaniel: Noah Song, Ryne Olenek, Antoine Duplantis and Evan Edwards are the only ones on there right now, so that’s you top tier

Kiley McDaniel: really, it’s Song, then Olenek, then a bunch of other guy with Edwards and Duplantis among the top ones

Dude: Let’s talk Michael Grove. How has he looked?

Kiley McDaniel: I haven’t seen him but Eric either has or has talked to people that have. Sounds back to where he was pre TJ, 92-94, good breaker

howdy: most surprising, in a positive way, start from a prospect so far? also, most disappointing?

Kiley McDaniel: Rhett Wiseman has been going insane and it’s not a fluke, but haven’t done enough investigating to know if it’s a hot streak or indicative of a new level of performance

Squirtle: Is there anyway we can organize the top 100 taking into account future value only offensively? Would Yordan be near the top?

Kiley McDaniel: You can export and sort by average of future hit+future game power and do that independently.

Kiley McDaniel: I’d imagine it would be the top prospects in the game, then a bunch of 1B/DH/LF types

Mostly rational Braves fan: Acuna is an alien. His homerun last night was ridiculous. Along with the astounding power for a human his size, there looks to me to be a big step in approach and selectivity. Is that what you/others are seeing?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s the reason clubs bet on athletes. Every now and then there’s one that can make about every adjustment that’s necessary and athleticism is often a big part of why he’s able to do it.

Kiley McDaniel: There’s also the mental part of it, but many guys have that but not the 70 or 80 tools to make it actually work for them

Ben: So in the NFL draft, there’s always this thing prior where the NFL writers put some of the QBs in the late 1st/second round group, and they always seem to go top 12 because hitting on one is too valuable and you don’t risk missing it. Is there an equivalent profile/position that you think this happens with in the mlb draft?

Kiley McDaniel: College bats get moved up like QBs (but not as much) and HS RHP get moved down like running back (but not as much)

Slurve: What’s the rarest 80 Grade tool for hitters?  Pitchers?

Kiley McDaniel: Hit and Curveball

el Guapo: When and where do we see Kevin Alcantara and Osiel Rodriguez are they DSL guys?

Kiley McDaniel: Affiliates start right before/after the draft but often those sorts of talents will start in the DSL and get a quick hook if they’re dominating

Peter Garbonzo: Seems like there are quite a few MINF that are transitioned to catching, whether that is because of a positional glut or traits about their game that might translate well. I’d assume having an athletic catcher is a good thing when it comes to framing, getting out of a crouch, etc. But what do teams prefer: athletic catchers who are relatively new to the position and unseasoned overall, or your traditional catcher who has been refining his skills for years who’s more of a “plodder.”  I’m sure it’s not that black and white of a topic, but interested to hear your answer.

Kiley McDaniel: The value now put on framing changes the calculus a bit on this. If catcher defense is now more framing than anything else (in terms of what clubs care about) and they think that’s more teachable/tied to athleticism, and they can teach the game-calling stuff and they value versatility more…then there should be more conversions of athletic guys with middle-tier prospect value…which I think we’re seeing?

Peter Garbonzo: Can you describe the relationship between Barrel Speed and Exit Velo? Is there a clear linear relationship, or does possessing plus Barrel Speed not necessarily lead to better Exit Velos, and vice versa?

Kiley McDaniel: wrist/forearm strength would be the other big variable there, but it’s similar to spin rates being always good to have, but the impact they have varies on the other attributes (spin tilt/axis, other pitches, command, etc.)

Weenie: Ricardo Sanchez has looked great so far in AA. What’s the report on him?

Kiley McDaniel: Three pitches that all flash 55 and 45 to 50 control but more 40 type command. If the command comes, he’s really interesting

Kiley McDaniel: But he also didn’t really improve over the last 3 years, so when he was 17 or 18 and carving the AZL, making that jump was obviously much more likely

Frank: I’m a older fan and now learning about advanced stats and such. I’ve read that “Pitcher Wins”, “Saves”, “Batting Average”, and “Fielding %” are not useful anymore?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s correct. They are good at telling you what happened but aren’t good at telling you what a true talent level is and/or what the future will bring. The newer stats and/or scouting reports are better at that.

Kiley McDaniel: (depending on the exact question you’re trying to answer and what level of play and amount of data you have)

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Josh Jung playing some SS? Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s 3B in pro ball and may not last there for all of his 20’s

James: Tatis Jr is posting near elite sprint times now. Why did the uptick in speed come from and will it stick?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to a scout about that this week. It’s legit 70 speed now and I still remember seeing him as a 15/16 year old and everything was fringe to average. Obviously this is always possible with a bigger athlete that actually gets faster as he gets stronger, but very unlikely and almost impossible to predict. Going from fringe tools and projection to all the physical tools being 60 or 70 and getting bigger/stronger is incredibly rare but happens sometimes

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not weird for a kid to have 50 speed as a 14 year old, then add strength and weigh more, but be a 70 runner as an 18 year old

Kiley McDaniel: Pache went from a 60 runner to an 80 runner from age 16 to 19

Kiley McDaniel: and now is more of a 70 as he’s added more bulk

Allen: Any word on Graeme Stinson? He hasn’t pitched in over a month and the team isn’t being all that forthcoming with information.

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t know what the situation is exactly, but scouts assume it’ll have some sort of medical intervention at some point and that he will be a reliever. Obviously the medical will come between now and the draft and that gray area will be less hazy for clubs.

BlueJayMatt: Jays draft at 11 – will Nick Lodolo or Kameron Misner be available there?

Kiley McDaniel: Lodolo almost certainly no, Misner probably is there

Dees: The Braves put Darling Florentino (17 years old) into A ball.  The early results have been predictably terrible, but any scouting reports on him?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him briefly in instructs and he was fine, but didn’t rise to the level that I thought he needed to be included on the others of note for the prospect list

Weenie: What are your thoughts on Max Fried? Are you buying that he will stick in Atlanta’s rotation?

Kiley McDaniel: This is what I thought would happen a few years ago…there was just some blisters and not so great performances in between. I believe a little more each time

Guest: Best prospect that should be available the Marlins should draft. I want Andrew Vaugh but not sure if he will fall to 4.

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a 1% chance he’s there

Andy: What the hell happened to Tyler Dyson? Is he to the 5-7 round range now?

Kiley McDaniel: Something like that, he’s a reclamation project and could be going back to school depending on what he thinks is the best way to get back on track

Zack: Does CJ abrams sign with his drafted team or go to Alabama?

Kiley McDaniel: Chance of not signing seems very remote

Jimmy : Thoughts on Massey from Illinois?

Kiley McDaniel: Solid middle infielder with a wide base of tools. Fits the TBR style of player to a T. The day Eric and I saw Massey in Arizona, TB had a high level scout there, which made me chuckle.

Freddy : I know it’s a year away but was really impressed watching 2020 LHP Reid Detmers pitch. His fastball is sneaky good possibly due to deception, and the curve is just nasty. Without the benefit of a radar gun how hard does he actually throw, cause he seems to generate a lot of swings and misses on the heater despite what I heard is not premium velocity?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him at Clemson at few weeks ago, was 89-92, 55 CB, flashed a 50 CH but had some trouble with it. 50 to 55 CMD, good deception, Logan Davidson hit his worst mistake of the day about 9000 feet.

Kiley McDaniel: Likely a 1st rounder in 2020

Something: What would you be doing as a career if you weren’t writing about baseball?

Kiley McDaniel: Game of Thrones podcasts

Kiley Cyrus: Why do you and Keith Law hate the Blue Jays farm

Kiley McDaniel: We just had a meeting about this

Kiley McDaniel: You

Kiley McDaniel: You’re the reason why

Kiley McDaniel:

Miles: This James Beard JUCO kid from MS, super fast, know anything more about him?

Kiley McDaniel: Literally off-the-scale runner but for some scouts he’s so raw at the plate that they wouldn’t draft him

Kiley McDaniel: I’m sure someone will take a chance

Andy: With Carter Stewart looking bad, should Braves fans view him not signing as a good or bad thing? Also, any idea who Atlanta would’ve taken if it wasn’t him? I remembered them tied to Gorman a lot.

Kiley McDaniel: I think it would’ve been Gorman

Danny: No mention of Tanner Myatt in your Yankees write-up. Too many walks but off to a good start and is supposed to have a high 90s fastball. What do you think of him and can he stay a SP?

Kiley McDaniel: Was definitely on the radar, will probably be on the writeup this winter with a healthy season

Jimmy : It looks like initial grades for Luis Robert were low. I saw him hit a ball dead center over the second wall at WS. How far is that? And his stand up triple coasting into third took about 10.5 seconds. Are you evaluaters as excited as us Sox fans?

Kiley McDaniel: We put him in the top 35 prospects in baseball when he hadn’t played a pro game yet. Feel like that’s pretty optimistic.

Kiley McDaniel: Many top 5 overall picks never get that high on the top 100

Ron: Saw that you were in to see Greg Jones… How was he?

Kiley McDaniel: Just a couple ABs and the swing mechanics weren’t where I wanted them to be but the athleticism is still goofy

Matt: Are you guys going to do anymore MLB scouting reports like you did with Kluber to illustrate what the numbers are for guys who have made it? I really enjoyed that but I could see how it may be too time consuming with everything else you’re doing.

Kiley McDaniel: Oh we are indeed

Mike: What are you hearing about Cole Wilcox this year?

Kiley McDaniel: 95-99 touching 100

Nicholas: You said Detmers was 89-92 w/ a 55 CB, flashing 50 CH and 50-55 CMD. that’s a first round profile?

Kiley McDaniel: For a lefty with numbers and health, yes

Jeff M: Which Game of Thrones character shows the best combo of RawPower and Speed future value?

Kiley McDaniel: Hmmm the mountain and his bro are the power guys…apparently Gendry is fast? I think Euron may be the combine champion on the show? The dude from Dorn that the mountain killed may be a sneaky athlete. Jaime Lannister with both hands is probably in the mix, maybe the guy Dany left behind to manage Slaver’s Bay

Kiley McDaniel: obviously the dragons if we’re talking non humans

Kiley McDaniel: Night King appears to have some real arm strength from that javelin throw

Kiley McDaniel: I’d be interested to see how many reps of 225 Brienne of Tarth could throw up

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe the faceless men could take on the appearance of peak vernon davis?

Cooper: I don’t watch the show. Are there multiple thrones being gamed? That’s not the impression I get from friends’ conversations. Seems like a strangely inapt title.

Kiley McDaniel: it is a widespread game for one throne until the episode that m night shyamalan directs

Kiley McDaniel: then it turns out all the thrones were dead the whole time bc water was their weakness?

Jeremy: What did you think of the new Star Wars trailer?

Kiley McDaniel: Light on details to make me think they aren’t just remaking Return of the Jedi

Kiley McDaniel: not a lot of original thought from Abrams in this trilogy

Chris: To follow up on Cole Wilcox, would you say his stock is dropping, rising or holding steady?

Kiley McDaniel: Still a 50 FV for us until we see what happens when he’s in the rotation

Jeff M: Khal Drogo could probably have crushed a lot of taters. Such a waste.

Kiley McDaniel: Oh yeah he would def win the underwear olympics

Woooo: How about that Chattanooga outfield? Trammel, Siri, Freidl

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll probably check them out soon as well

meh: The giants are the power guys in GoT, duh

Kiley McDaniel: but aren’t they all dead? well i guess they’re wights now

Nate: For best GOT speed, how bout the Raven that managed to fly from the wall to Dragonstone in like 5 minutes last season? Pretty sure it must have passed 747s in the sky on its way

Stanatee the Manatee: The real thrones were the friends we killed along the way

Deckman: Hello Kiley do you like puppies? Would you like to take some pictures with puppies? I have a private studio where I can take pictures of you with puppies

Pre Malone: HIT THE NAE NAE

Defenestrater: Allow me to take this opportunity to tell you some personal details about me you would rather not know.

Matt Damon: There are dozens of us! Also, MATT DAMON

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

TIGER. WOODS.: TIGER. WOODS.

Kiley McDaniel: see you guys next week!