Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/22/18

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here but Scout needs a quick potty break, so we’ll get going a few minutes behind schedule

Kiley McDaniel: Okay we are back

Kiley McDaniel: Quick update on my schedule: headed out tonight to see Mason Denaburg vs. Triston Casas in the FL state HS playoffs and will head out tomorrow morning to Clearwater to see Shane McClanahan face Wichita State in the AAC conference tourney, may run back over on Thursday to see Tim Cate as well, but may also stay here to see Florida/Tampa if the pitching lines up

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions…

Jim in Chicago: If Casey Mize doesn’t go #1, where does he end up?

Kiley McDaniel: This seems to be the question of the moment. Detroit is seriously thinking about other options at 1-1, and the talk of this got around right after out mock came up. The specifics about what medicals Mize has shared, what Detroit has, what other teams have and what those medicals say is a little hazy and some of the answers are protected by HIPAA so we won’t get everything we would like to know pre draft.

Kiley McDaniel: What we do know is that Mize pitches like a 27 year old Japanese starter (lots of cutters and splitters), which is good in that he’s a finished product, good in the sense that he’s good in a unique way, not so good in the sense that he likely won’t get better. And he has enough of an injury history that we have to question (more than any other arm at the top of the draft) how teams may react to medical info that we will not be able to see.

Kiley McDaniel: So

Kiley McDaniel: If he doesn’t go 1-1, it would be due to projecting his health and once he slides past 1, it’s unclear where he would stop because we don’t know what the info would be that caused him to slide

Kiley McDaniel: BUT

Kiley McDaniel: Using Jeff Hoffman or Mark Appel as a guide, in general an injury/signability concern slides you to the back of the top tier, which is about 5-7 players, so I would assume he still goes comfortably in the top 10 even if the medical is gruesome, which I don’t think it is.

Fleer: Any chance Beer goes in the top 10?

Kiley McDaniel: Cannot imagine how that happens, wouldn’t rule out a little below slot in the 20’s to an analytics-leaning team or one with multiple picks. I would guess 30-50 and lots of the industry has him lower than that.

Brian: How many of the top draft prospects would be considered to be on the top 100 prospects list?

Kiley McDaniel: We are fine tuning the sortable draft board right now, should be done soon. I think we have 12 or 13 with a 50 FV or better, which would be top 135 or so. In the update of THE BOARD instead of stopping at 100, we’re just gonna rank all the 50’s so roughly a dozen players would jump into that. May still be about 135 total once the draft kids sign and you have graduations from the list

Russ: Any real concern with Ian Anderson’s control? He’s walking more guys than many expected.

Kiley McDaniel: Should see him soon, but not worried. Still think it’s the issue described in the Braves/top 100 prospect list of working 95 in the top of the zone, which both separately give lower level umpires problems but specifically together

Adam D.: What do you think the timetable would be for Bart? Big league debut in 2020?

Kiley McDaniel: Only issue holding him back would be contact and catcher/shortstops often get promoted before completely dominating a level if the glove is ready. I’d say yes.

mlb fan: Ozzie Albies or Gleyber Torres ?

Kiley McDaniel: OZZIE OZZIE OZZIE

Snapper Bean: Still think the Phillies are locked in on Bohm at 3?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, still could change but that’s been the buzz on them for over a month

Sox Fan: Has Rolison’s stock really fallen that much that he would be available at 26? It seemed like he was a safe bet to go top 15 until a few weeks ago.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s had some bad starts and we just finished ranking college pitches and he slid a little further than we thought he would. Performance has just been okay, delivery needs a change, guys like Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch are a little better for us, but they’re all close

Buff: It’s about time to ask about pop-up prospects. Who among young NL hitters have made the biggest jumps?

Juan Soto: JUAN. SOTO.

Hinkie: If the Tigers end up passing on Casey Mize for a well below slot deal with somebody else, do the Giants jump all over Mize or will they also look for an underslot deal ?  I guess this is a long way of asking … how possible is it Mize falls to the Phillies at 1-3 ???

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know how things play out if Mize doesn’t go 1-1, but one team in the top 5 told me if the Tigers could be this on Mize and get off him for medicals, we’re probably not gonna like it either and there’s still plenty of good players to choose from. An exec in the top 10 told me if he’s 1-1 he just cuts Madrigal and takes him over retail priced Mize.

Out of the top 5, that gamble on a hypothetical Mize with a bad medical makes more sense with the top tier off the board. All speculative at this point and it is possible that this is all a smokescreen from Detroit but we’ve talked to some people that would know and they’re convinced the Tigers are at least heavily shopping around for alternative, at least one very plugged in person think they’ve already moved on from Mize.

FIEND: GIVE US THE LATEST DRAFT BUZZ AT THE TOP I NEED IT.

Kiley McDaniel: WAS THAT BUZZY ENOUGH I’LL HANG UP AND LISTEN

Hinkie: Thoughts on Hogan Harris.  Where does he get selected ?

Kiley McDaniel: Got a good report on him a few weeks ago, has been up to 97 in relief, starter look once he got the chance, 3rd-5th area.

Joe: Are you locking in a Prep Pitcher to the Pirates at #10?  Do you think they’ll go underslot or attempt to?  Any preferences of the guys that are in that range that would fit the Pirates system? or do you see a shift in the Pirates system away from high velocity and more towards high spin rates (a la Baz)?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of guys in play there as there could be a player seen as a top 10 talent that slides to them (Liberatore, McClanahan, Stewart) and we’ve also heard some momentum for Winn, Larnach and Grayson Rodriguez there as well. Don’t have the impression that from pick 9 on down really has a great sense who will be there for them, so don’t think those teams really know who they will take yet, especially with pricetags on most of the these players coming into focus now that draft meetings are about to begin

Lilith: As far as the college hitters in the draft, do you know how the Reds would rank Bart, Madrigal, Bohm and India? And do they prefer Singer to all of them?

Kiley McDaniel: 2, 1, 3, 4 is our guess with Singer/Bart/Madrigal the top tier in some order

Darren: Biggest risers/fallers of the past couple of weeks?

Kiley McDaniel: The aforementioned Daniel Lynch, LHP at UVA has lots of helium and not just because we’re hearing about it late, he’s been a different guy over the last month

Will: How has Christian pache looked this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Seen him a few games so far this year, will see him more since he’s 30 min from my place right now. Has made some offensive progress, is lifting the ball more but still has a ways to go. Still an 80 runner and 70 or 80 defender

Mock Tock: How many more mocks do yall intend to put out before the 4th?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe 2 more? 2.5? Something like that

Bored Employee: Is Kevin Smith impressing, beating up on younger competition, or some combination thereof?

Kiley McDaniel: Toned down a swing that was too loud in college, still has some pop and bat control. Curious to see how long he can sustain it and/or I get to take a look if he gets promoted

Your boy: Khris Davis is a pretty good comp for Tyler O’Neill, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Good enough, think O’Neill is a better athlete, may be a little better hitter

Darren: Seuly Matias or Khalil Lee make it on a current Top 100 prospect list?

Kiley McDaniel: Matias is close if he doesn’t, Lee does not

Jake: What happened to Francis Martes? Has he completely forgot how to throw strikes?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard his velo was down too, may need some time to put it all back together

Jay: Chris Paddack just keeps dealing. The same is not true for Quantrill and Baez. Should Padres fans be more excited about Paddack or more concerned about those other two?

Kiley McDaniel: Paddack/Baez about the same, Quantrill below them

backfields: If a player isn’t drafted out of highschool and opts for college is he required to stay in college for X number of years before being draft eligible?

Kiley McDaniel: JC no, 4-year college it’s 3 years or year when he’s 21 within 45 days of the draft

CBBSN Scout: Have you had a chance to see Jonathan Bowlan this year? Big righty from Memphis touched 95 for me, also had an 18 K game a few weeks ago. Where do you think he slots in if you have seen him?

Kiley McDaniel: Heard 96 a couple weeks back and sounds like a solid 5th round or thereabouts power arm with a chance to start

Guest: I have the 1st pick in my Dynasty leagues rookie draft (4 days after Rule 4) who do I pick??

Kiley McDaniel: Probably Madrigal

Matt: Do you have any concern about Sixto Sanchez? Walk rate is up and K rate is down since moving to A+, both last season and this one.

Kiley McDaniel:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

Phillies righty Sixto Sanchez 96-98 in the first inning, 97 on this pitch. Threw a plus curve and plus changeup, th… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…

18 May 2018

Kiley McDaniel: There are 100 reasons to not be worried. I was told he had an illness in spring training, was a little out of shape, rushed back trying to overthrow and in the last few weeks was getting right. No reason to be worried, he may even be a little better than what I saw

Anthony: Have you seen Adam Hill at South Carolina at all?

Kiley McDaniel: Missed him by a day, sounds like he’s given scouts very different looks this year, sometimes touching 95 and mowing thru lineups with his slider, other times sitting 88-92 and without the command to start. Thinking 3rd round or so

Sparhawk: Which prep pitcher has more upside, Carter Stewart or Matthew Liberatore and why?

Kiley McDaniel: You can project a 65 to 70 fastball and breaker for Stewart and Liberatore’s top two pitches are a little behind that, but he has a little better feel to pitch. They are very close but would lean Stewart on upside.

Rangers: Who are some names beyond what we’ve been mocked to that we have been connected to?

Kiley McDaniel: We heard after the mock that Texas prep RHP Grayson Rodriguez will not get past your pick.

Guest: Could Meadows, with his hit tool and low strikeout rate, be one of those type of prospects that sees his power levels spike in the majors with the new ball and increase in homers at the MLB level?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s always had above average power, but has had injuries and swing adjustment mute the in-game power a bit. So it would be more teasing it out that finding it like the Altuve/Betts types have done.

Clay Aiken: Any chance my brother Brady Aiken ever finds his tantalizing stuff that made him the #1 overall pick at one point in time?

Kiley McDaniel: Doesn’t look like it

Anthony: What are the chances that Mack makes it to Clemson

Kiley McDaniel: I’m rooting for his return

NYTT: What does Allard have to do to be a #3 going forward? Show more velocity?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s guys that put up 3 WAR (roughly a #3 starter) with solid average stuff and plus command. It’s obviously possible, just may not bet on that specific outcome. I bet he gets close at least once in his career, though.

Guest: Think Hankins slides to the comp rounds? How much will a team need to overslot him to get him to forgo Vandy?

Kiley McDaniel: Hearing he won’t be a tough sign. Sounds like he’ll go 20-45 range, prep righties are always tough to pin, particularly when there’s a bunch that are hard to separate.

Dunt: How does Madrigal’s profile change if he’s moved to SS? Does his arm play there?

Kiley McDaniel: It should be fine, it’s more tools than Eckstein and he made it work, Madrigal has comparable feel for the game, he just isn’t a platonic ideal there.

YKnotDisco?!: Can you build the perfect minor league player? Frankenstein style. Using each separate tool. Please.

Kiley McDaniel: Ummm, 80 everything right? I need some constraints

CamdenWarehouse: Please share some Scout pictures

Kiley McDaniel:

Bravesy McBravesface: How likely is it that Joey Bart actually goes 1-1 now?  Is Alec Bohm a possibility at 1-1?  Has Mize’s rough last couple of outings caused any uncertainty?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think Mize’s performance is the factor here. It may be 60/40 Mize/Bart at this point.

Kiley McDaniel: If only betting were legal

Gregg: Is Scout better at grading out pitchers or hitters?

Kiley McDaniel: She’s only been to one game and we set up down the side for Parker Meadows so she hasn’t really beared down on a pitcher yet

Casey Mize: Why do I keep hearing about Joey Bart taking my draft spot at 1/1 to the Tigers?

Kiley McDaniel: you should probably stop reading this chat

John S: Usually by now, there’s an idea whether an amateur will sign or not.  Jordyn Adams seems to still be on the fence. What say you?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like he’ll go in the 10-20 range and he’ll sign if he goes there

Moltar: I have a question for Scout: Bork bork bork, bork bork Travis Swaggerty? Bork woof bork, Jonathan India for the Mets at 6 instead? Bork bork, thanks *boop*

Kiley McDaniel: Increased interest in Scout recently did not see this coming

Connor: When will the next mock draft/ draft board updates come out?

Kiley McDaniel: Board should be this week at some point, Mock maybe next week?

Kirk: Why GMs who are not supposed to have good scouting abilities go to see the games draft prospects play?
Is it important to see one game and have impression on draft prospects?
Or just tradition/due diligence, or to appeal the respect and try to build relationship with players/advisers?

Kiley McDaniel: If you were to steal my phone and ask my front office friends one group would say it does more harm than good since non-scouts will put too much stock in the specific game they see and probably have some people tag along with them that should be at another game while the other camp would say this guy is being held responsible for the pick he should see the player with his eyes

Cougar Dan: Does Kyler Murray get drafted?

Kiley McDaniel: have to think someone will draft him, don’t think it’ll be in the top 10 rounds

Jim Harbaugh: Who is the best player from Michigan this year?

Kiley McDaniel: 1B John Malcom, RHP William English

Ozzie Albies sucks: Ozzie Albies sucks too

Kiley McDaniel: Even Scout knows you’re wrong and just angry who hurt you

Tom: Christin Stewart a 50 FV guy now?

Kiley McDaniel: He was before the season

NYTT: Allies left handed swing has gotten some flack, but he’s slugging almost 500 left handed. how much better can that swing get realistically?

Kiley McDaniel: He isn’t really like any other player so you can’t break down his swing like he’s just another player. The scouts that did that were trying to treat one of the most unique players in the world like some other second baseman, which will get you in trouble

James: Does anyone draft Luke Heimlich

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like yes

Wes: If you are to rank the NCAA conferences, who is behind the SEC?

Kiley McDaniel: ACC

Bernard Gilkey: I haven’t seen you mention Jameson Hannah much but I like his mix of performance and tools. Is he getting first round heat?

Kiley McDaniel: Possible, more likely comp or 2nd

Oyster Burns: you more confident swanson or rosario becomes a good hitter?

Kiley McDaniel: Swanson

Tim: Why doesn’t Carlos Cortes get talked about more? I heard his name a lot before the year and nothing now . Is it just his low average causing contact concerns?

Kiley McDaniel: Terrible start to the year, has been hot of late, 60 raw and some feel to hit, should go 2nd-4th area

Darn Yankees: What incentive do the Tigers have to throw a smokescreen? It’s not like basketball where they can trade picks. Just to talk Mize’s price down a little?

Kiley McDaniel: And have more money for their 2nd pick, with KC and TB having much more money and 3-4 picks between DET’s picks

Chris: Hey Kiley – I recently discovered an office- mate is related to Whitworth’s RHP Hugh Smith … do you know anything about him – any insight? Apparently dude is 6’10” and has some above average feel.

Kiley McDaniel: Up to 97 and huge, scouts we’ve talked to said there isn’t a whole lot else there right now

Jake: Is there much concern in Adonis Medina’s start to the year?

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him a couple weeks ago and that guy would go in the top 5 picks of the draft.

Jake: How good can senzel be if he gets the vertigo checked

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t have a great sense for how vertigo affects elite hitters so we’ll just find out together

Thomas: Not sure who does the Fangraphs prospect videos on Youtube but keep it up!  For all of you not subscribed:

Kiley McDaniel: About to be a lot more posted this week!

Noodles: Terrific picture of you, sir!  A week or two back you referred to Bart’s defense with glowing grades.  Is this right?  And as a large-framed dude, do you think there is any concern for his mobility going fwd?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’ll be fine, lots of feel for the game and the position but he is bigger than usual and catching beats guys up. Plus arm, above defender

Ozzie A.: Have you scouted Anthony Seigler in person?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep posted a homer video yesterday on twitter. 65 arm, 55 glove, can really hit and lifts the ball already. Some teams are very very in on him. Me and Eric are as well.

Jim: I don’t know if you saw the tweet from Alex Bregman from this last weekend, but he complained about the use of a headset by catchers in college to allow the coach to call pitches. Based on that, Bregman said that there was “no chance” he would go to college if he was a catcher prospect out of high school. What are your thoughts? Is the problem as big as Bregman suggests?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s almost no incentives for college coaches to act in the best long-term interests of their players unless they treat them so poorly that they get a bad rep and can’t get other players. That goes from calling too many sliders from young pitchers, throwing too deep into games and on too short rest, teaching hitters to hit grounders since defense is worse in college, bunting too much, etc. It’s kinda sad but there’s too much money especially in the SEC/ACC for coaches to treat it like the lower minors.

Guest: Austin Meadows‘ younger brother, Parker, is draft eligible.  Where if at all does he project to go?

Kiley McDaniel: late first to comp round

Clubber Lang: Is there a command guy without a big time fastball that you like in this year’s draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Daniel Lynch and Logan Gilbert on college side, Gunnar Hoglund on prep side

Kiley McDaniel: The chat software isn’t letting me add photos to the chat, so here’s a Scout picture for the 75% of you who want to see it and I don’t know what to tell the other 25% of you

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

@Lana

26 Apr 2018

Spicy Boy: we gotta boycott any team that drafts luke heimlich

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that’s why all 30 teams aren’t meeting with him

Babe Lincoln: Have you ever discovered a legit prospect by accident?  Sorta like how the Mets discovered Stetson’s deGrom when they went to scout the opposing FGCU pitcher, Chris Sale.

Kiley McDaniel: Only underclassmen, if we’re talking about like top 100 level prospects, but I’ve definitely run into 4th-6th round guys I had no idea who they were until I was looking at them.

Ozzie A.: Heard anything about soroka’s shoulder? They’re saying it’s just precautionary but I’m always skeptical

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like you have trust issues

Babe Lincoln: Alonso 50 FV now?

Kiley McDaniel: He is on the list to discuss for the update

Joey Bats: Why did the Braves cut me?

Kiley McDaniel: You have some reason to have trust issues

Brandon: What do you make of Spencer Torkelson? Huge power this year as a freshman.

Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote about him at length in the Juan Soto piece yesterday. Could be another Pete Alonso if he keeps doing this.

kbpms1: That’s an 80 grade pupper.

Kiley McDaniel: She just nodded at me when I read that to her

Yankees: Will humanity ever stop being terrible? Being on twitter ends up ruining my day most days

Kiley McDaniel: Okay this feels like therapy may be time to make my exit

Slurp: JUAN SOTO

Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

Burt Reynolds: Ever try to eat shredded cheese with chopsticks? Humbling experience

Willie Calhoun: Having Juan Soto on my fantasy team makes me so happy (don’t tell my wife)

nhbrvervstb: why won’t she text me back

Kiley McDaniel: always comes back to that doesn’t it alrighty guys this has been something i’ll see you next wednesday