Kiley McDaniel Chat – 6/12/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL where Scout is passed out next to me from a busy day of napping. Some quick self-promotion before we get started

Kiley McDaniel: Last week was draft week! You can find all the draft content in the widget on the home page https://www.fangraphs.com/ or our up to the second rankings of everyone and everything at https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?sort=…

Kiley McDaniel: we’re rolling out some of our favorite clips of draft video at our instagram @fangraphs but my personal favorite is also on twitter: Zach Thompson’s 3000+ rpm curveball:

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

One of the coolest clips we got this spring was Cardinals 1st rounder Kentucky LHP Zach Thompson throwing a 3000+ rpm hook in warmups. Look at the wrist action.

11 Jun 2019

Kiley McDaniel: and lastly, so those interested, we have a new top 100 and all the team lists have movement, graduations taken off, draft (all top 10 rounders or confirmed later signs) are added. I would guess that comes out this week since we’re just doing clerical stuff now like filling out blurbs and whatnot. Possibly Monday.

Kiley McDaniel: Eric is at PG National this week and I’ll be hitting the summer circuit starting a few weeks from now, so if you’re 2020 draft curious, peek THE BOARD for updates as we learn them https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1…

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

Timmy: Has Yordan Alvarez warranted an upgrade in his FV hitting grades? Also which prospect do you think is most likely to take a yordan-like huge step forward next?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, he’s sliding up but also is somewhat limited in where he can go, like not much higher than Alonso was preseason, basically

Kiley McDaniel: we currently have 81 players with up arrows (meaning eligible for lists this winter and in a different place now) and 45 down arrows. We didn’t go fine-toothed comb through every single list, but focused on the top 200 types and easy, low-hanging fruit since there’s so much movement in this update

Kiley McDaniel: NYY has lots of new guys added to the back of their list based on teenagers emerging, pitcher health/performance

Kiley McDaniel: BOS was our lowest-ranked system and their top 2 guys are arrow up right now, among others

Phillie Phanatic : Has the outlook on Alec Bohm changed at all, or is this what was expected of him (high batting average, low K rate, etc.)?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the type of hitter he was as an amateur. We hoped he would make some adjustments to tap into more power but that may never happen/take awhile. Reports we’ve gotten this spring are he’s more likely to move to 1B than at draft time.

Shawn: What makes Brady Singer a great prospect? He seems to lack swing and miss stuff yet I keep hearing all his pitches have the potential to be above average. What do you think of him?

Kiley McDaniel: Stuff flashes 55, lots of life, above command, low slot, aggressive, performs, sequences well, big kid, is now using CH he rarely used in college. That’s the positives

Kiley McDaniel: On the negative it’s no plus pitch, some teams had him off the board due to the arm action, sinker w/solid not amazing stuff isn’t where the game is going

Kiley McDaniel: but also Soroka has been pretty good with this general profile, but a tick more stuff and also a bit of an outlier, which you don’t want to count on

Mike: Have you heard anything on Atlanta signing their HS picks from round 11-19 (Vaughn Grissom, Tyler Owens, Jared Johnson, Joey Estes, Makhi Backstrom, Kadon Morton)?

Kiley McDaniel: In general, 11-20 round HS players are taken with the thought there’s some real shot to sign them or a deal is done ahead of time. Beyond round 20 is when you start seeing the shot in the dark, 5-10% chance types. This also depends on how many players the team will sign from the draft. If they’re signing 20 and those are all locked up on draft day, then round 21-40 is all backup options and shots in the dark. For other teams that could start round 33.

Kiley McDaniel: We hear a good bit of off-the-record buzz about X prospect is the backup option for Y, or we expect to sign these 5 HS kids but that’s pending physical/last second change of heart, so we generally hold off until things are official

Al Avila: What do Casey Mize and Matt Manning have to do to move up THE BOARD?

Kiley McDaniel: Wait until the first update and POOF they will

Brendumb: What kind of profile do you see a guy like Heston Kjerstad having at the major league level? Big kid who seems to be athletic. I really like him.

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah it’s 60 raw, real loose swing, classic RF profile but was a little too aggressive in pitch selection this year, so if he can dial that in then it could be Josh Reddick-ish

When can addi: When can adding fashion/food preferences to THE BOARD? SOrtable?

Kiley McDaniel: We had some stuff ahead of that on the wish list, but we’ll get there

Kiley McDaniel: Siri, sort THE BOARD by highest affinity for Gucci loafers and unnecessary uses of truffle

Adi: Why is Fangraphs lower on the royals farm system compared to most other websites. Granted it’s not too good, but fangraphs has it as a bottom tier one compared to others that have it closer to middle of the pack

Kiley McDaniel: In general, our system for grading the farm systems highly values top 200 types and has the depth (40s) as very low value. This also mirrors real life where you can’t trade five 40’s for a 50. I could see us overvaluing depth of 40’s if we’re just eyeballing it.

Kiley McDaniel: So bc the Royals didn’t have a 50 this offseason (they will add Witt in the update), unless the list has 40 players, it’ll be hard to break out of the bottom third

Kiley McDaniel: There are also some holes in how we present offseason farm rankings here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pre-draft-farm-system-rankings/

Kiley McDaniel: Teams that are high variance like NYY (tons of teenagers on the list) should probably go up since a 35+ or 40 busting means they move off the list and are likely replaced by another moving up, but a couple 40s turning into 50s make a huge difference

Kiley McDaniel: and, as explained in the article, concentrating your farm value in fewer players can also round you up, we just don’t have an empirical way to do that yet

Kiley McDaniel: And those rankings don’t reflect new draft guys or guys moving up early, so I would imagine we’ll run an update post July 15th draft signing deadline once we know who signs and can set a benchmark pre trade deadline

Kiley McDaniel: So, I’m sure KC will be moving up steadily at each of these markers in time

Bob: Any news on what the Mets will be giving Baty/Wolf/Allan and/or if they will be striking any surprising deals with third day preps?

Kiley McDaniel: I would bet they sign those three and the seniors

Eminor3rd: Was surprised to see Bleday jump Vaughn on your board at the last minute. Should the White Sox have drafted Bleday? Or is the answer “splitting hairs, depends on org preference”?

Kiley McDaniel: We have them 46th and 48th in the update, so yeah it’s a total coinflip

Kiley McDaniel: I would guess the industry is like 60/40 for Vaughn?

AJ: Now that the draft is over, when can I start peppering you with my horribly one-sided deadline trade proposals?

Kiley McDaniel: Oh those are always in season

Ryan: Thoughts on Grant Gambrell out of Oregon St? Watched him a few times and he seemed to have the stuff to be drafted 2nd round or higher

Kiley McDaniel: Some minor medical stuff but yeah could be a 4th starter or setup guy, consistent 55 FB/CB

Randy: Your current FV grade on Yordan Alvarez is _____. Also, YORDAN ALVAREZ!

Kiley McDaniel: He’s still a 50, but up near the top of the range now. Yeah, he’s fun stuff

Cody: Does Alec Marsh out of ASU have any chance to be a middle of the rotation starter?

Kiley McDaniel: More league average type but yeah that’s possible

Luke: What do you think of somewhat raw college prospects like Brady McConnell? Lots of tools, but how often do they pan out?

Kiley McDaniel: Not my personal cup of tea if I’m picking for that reason. Buddy Reed has made nice progress but is still more 4th OF than regular. I’m sure there’s a few but can’t think of any right now. Jared Oliva was a nice pick by PIT with one year of production but louder tools

Sir Mookleton McBetts III: Thoughts on Luis Arraez? His hit tool is Fire Emoji but no power eh?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s going to be a big mover, I’m sure he’s a Cistulli and KATOH favorite RIP

Spider Puig: I’d like you to compare Rece Hinds to some other big, powerful hitters from the past and maybe talk a bit about why some failed and some succeeded. On one end, he resembles Stanton. On the other, he looks like Gatewood. What’s the difference between the two groups? I know, in basic terms, the difference is that some developed the hit tool and others didn’t, but what led to those corrections being made, and how much of a chance does Hinds have of being in the “good” group?

Kiley McDaniel: Much closer to Gatewood, who is probably his best comp on draft day. I didn’t see Stanton as an amateur but I’ve been told it was an early mechanical adjustment that kinda fixed everything. Hinds has good mechanics and has had high end coaching and reps, it’s just pitch recognition that’s the issue. This can improve, but it isn’t easy to predict it.

Kiley McDaniel: I liken pitch ID like concrete. Get the prospect when it’s still wet (Carl Crawford was a three sport athlete with very limited baseball reps) and it can change, try when it’s dry (Josh Vitters, Delmon Young, etc. were elite players on the travel circuit at age 12) and it’s really hard to move the needle

Kiley McDaniel: Jeff Francouer would be a counter example in a way bc he had limited baseball reps and never improved

Kiley McDaniel: or he was just always going to be worse so the concrete metaphor didn’t apply

Garrett Salzer: Here are the guys I’ve pegged since the beginning of the season that will likely vault into the top 100 when the next update comes: Alek Thomas, Jarren Duran, Shane Baz, Yordan Alvarez, Nico Hoerner, Zach Plesac, Jordan Balazovic. Do you agree with all those names and do you have any to add?

Kiley McDaniel: I think all of those are moving up in some meaningful way, not all into the top 100 but that’s a strong list

Rick the Temp: Early 2020 draft question. You guys have Austin Martin listed as a second baseman, is that the position you think he ultimately fits best as? He seems to have great hands, does he not have the arm or range for short?

Kiley McDaniel: 6 bat, basically 5 everything else, maybe 45 game power

Kiley McDaniel: It’s 2B or 3B and I think 2B suits him a little better but haven’t been bearing down on that specifically

JC: Who’s playing this weekend for the CWS that’s been drafted and has even an outside shot of being a MLB contributor? Also who are the obvious prospects too since I don’t know them either.

Kiley McDaniel: Our regional preview has all the pro prospects for every club: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reviewing-the-prospects-in-the-ncaa-region…

Kiley McDaniel: A couple popped up during regionals but I don’t think any were for CWS clubs and if so, double check the board for updated rankings and possibly a handful of new neame

mr: Who is faster, CJ Abrams or Xavier Edwards?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d lean Edwards but a lot of people call them both 80s

mr: Any similarities between Buxton and CJ Abrams? Buxton was a SS coming out of HS IIRC

Kiley McDaniel: Buxton was CF only at least late in HS. Both 80 runner that project for 55-60 raw, likely both in CF, Buxton is bigger and better built, both have feel for contact but Abrams probably a little better, and also LH with a shot to play SS. Buxton may be a superior baseball athlete in terms of comparable tools to Abrams but Buxton’s frame and actions in every facet are about as good as anyone has seen

David: With the Dominican Summer League having kicked off, what are some names there we should keep an eye on?

Kiley McDaniel: We have some coming to THE BOARD within days!

Son of Skywalker: Is Austin Riley moving up to a 60 or does the K rate keep him a 55?

Kiley McDaniel: Leaving at the top of the 55s but could go either way

Bronxy: Have you talked to any scouts about Deivi Garcia this year?  Any concern with durability to handle a starter’s load?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah that’s not gonna go away but the stuff is still there and he keeps performing so up arrow for him

Jason N: If a player has a 110 WRC+ at Lake Elsinore, is the stat indexed for just the Cal League, all of High-A ball, or something else?

Kiley McDaniel: League adjusted, not park adjusted

Casey Cheng: Do you guys update player FV from week to week or are they pretty much up to date? What rating would you guys give to a recent riser like Balazovic who is currently a 40FV on your board?

Kiley McDaniel: No pro ratings have been updated this season, they are about to be, then it will be all the time, with weekly posts about who we moved that week

Kiley McDaniel: same for amateur, which has always been updated almost daily this year

Kiley McDaniel: and will continue to be year round b/c we’re insane

Preston: Have you heard much about Luis Campusano’s hot start to the year at Lake Elsinore?

Kiley McDaniel: Also moving up!

Griffin: Do you think the Rockies roll out Toglia in RF given the presence of Grant Lavigne?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think that would be the reason and Toglia is above to plus at 1B, but I also think he could be decent in RF, so maybe?

Rick the Temp : How comparable offensively is Austin Martin to Dansby Swanson at the same stage?

Kiley McDaniel: On draft day, Dansby was seen as a 60 bat, 45 game, 50 raw type just like Austin, not sure that was consensus entering his junior year but he was in that area at this stage.

Red Beaulieu: Where would Jasson Dominguez have gone in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Like real high. He would be in the top 6 tier for everyone, close to top 2-3 for some teams.

Red Beaulieu: Would you support or oppose removing the draft slot $ and pool limits?  Personally, I believe in letting amateurs sign for as much $ as they are worth.

Kiley McDaniel: LOL good luck politely asking the clubs to pay triple for draftees when the MLBPA let them put hard slots on the draft and int’l

Connor: Kiley, I’m a new follower after a coworker introduced me to your writings and enjoy everything you have to say. I’m not sure if this is the place to ask, but for someone who wants to get into the admin/scouting side, what are some practical steps you suggest I take?

Kiley McDaniel: my stock answer is learn 2 of: SQL/R, spanish, on-field coaching ability. If you learn 2, you will get a job.

Kiley McDaniel: first one will likely be internship and might need to do that for a couple years, but the amount of resumes with 2 of those isn’t anywhere near enough. The amount of resumes that can kinda do one but not really is unlimited.

Patty O’Furniture: Thoughts on Braves draftee Michael Harris?

Kiley McDaniel: Two way guy, top 5 round quality as CF/RF and LHP with mostly 50 to 55 future grades on everything. Sounds like ATL has him as a hitter.

Jerry: Duran a top 100 guy now?

Kiley McDaniel: Not yet, but he’s top 150-200 now

Kiley McDaniel: Which is insane for 12 months after being a 7th rounder that wasn’t an overpay

Sean: Kiley, would any analysis/ranking of each team’s scouting and player development ability likely rankle the sources you guys use for all of your content?

Kiley McDaniel: Unless we do it 100% objectively. Well, 100% after factoring in that there’s some subjectivity in the FV values. And we’re going to do that. Already have planned out how to do it.

BK: Joey Murray is putting up big numbers in the Jays system. Should I wait for AA performance before getting excited?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah it’s still a light fastball so I’m always curious to see how that type of guy plays at the upper levels

Snakes : Has Alek Thomas taken a large step forward? Does he have benintendi upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Not that big so the upside is more limited power-wise. We already knew he could hit, so he’s not soaring up THE BOARD just yet, but this is good to see and he is moving up.

Braves kids: I understand why you and Eric have adopted the approach of using the draftees from the first 10 rounds as a quick assessment of overall draft quality, but what about a draft like the Braves just had where they took a number of guys in the first 10 expected to go underslot so they can take a number of difficult-sign overslot HS guys from 11 on?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ll add them as they sign. It’s just a month of uncertainty.

chadornation: How realistic would it be for a team to pull off “blowing up the draft” like Passan wrote about? Is the risk of getting caught part way through the draft by other teams too great that a team will never try it?

Kiley McDaniel: The quote in there about getting caught in between, where teams figure out what you’re doing and take your guys or agents hold you hostage, is the risk. Nobody can keep a secret like that with talkative area guys and agents that need to be looped in early.

Kiley McDaniel: On paper, many teams should’ve tried this already b/c it isn’t that different than the int’l shooting the moon in terms of money for prospects ROI

Kiley McDaniel: and there’s a hard cap in the int’l market so this is the only area where you can bust past the spending limits and actually make a positive return, in theory. Luxury tax doesn’t do that unless you’re one player from the playoffs and you know that at the time of taking on the money

Hobbes: Any grade boosts coming for some 40FV CLE outfielders who’ve been hitting so far this year, Daniel Johnson and Will Benson?

Kiley McDaniel: Both up!

draft wiz: where can i find this updated board? the link you shared at top of chat doesnt have anything in trend column sort or any of the new draftees

Kiley McDaniel: coming in a few days

THE FUTURE: I HAVE RETURNED FROM THE FUTURE AND I WANTED TO LET YOU KNOW THAT THIS CHAT WILL SOON END.  PLEASE SHARE THIS WITH YOUR LISTENERS SO THAT THEY ARE AWARE.  ok thanky

Kiley M: Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious

Now we know: Kiley!  You’re just the absolute worst!

Let’s bag this up: Would you like paper or plastic?

Thaddeus Von Pratt: My lord, I will climb the highest mountain top in your lands and shout the words that I have learned today so that all men and women may benefit from this knowledge.

First Time Frankie: This has been the finest Fangraphs chat that I have ever witnessed!  I am speechless over the font that has rolled up the screen today!!

help: I fought the lol and the lol won

A Total Bummer: I can’t help but feel like I’ve been discriminated against.

Aaron Bummer, RP: I object. This chat should be more bummer-inclusive

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: thanks for coming out, weirdos