Kiley McDaniel Chat – 6/6/18 by Kiley McDaniel June 6, 2018 12:13 Kiley McDaniel: Hello everyone, just wrapped up an Effectively Wild appearance that I’m guessing will be up tomorrow and now I am here with you, for what I’m guessing will be a lot of draft questions. 12:13 Tommy N.: Are you surprised Liberatore signed for slot did he really just want to start his career or was there something in his medicals to make him slide? Granted 3+ mil is still a lot of money. 12:14 Kiley McDaniel: Wasn’t medicals. I’ve been told the story and am pretty sure it’s correct, won’t be sharing for a little while at least for reasons you guys can probably assume. Great deal for TB. 12:14 Tommy N.: Padres draft kind of was underwhelming after Edwards and Weathers they drafted a good amount of college seniors is this because Xavier Edwards is going to cost much more than we expected? 12:16 Kiley McDaniel: We like Grant Little and Dylan Coleman, Juwaun Harris has a lot of upside. College seniors means money savers to pay other players, so it’s a sign money is being moved around. 12:17 K-Man: Any opinion change on a player because of the team that drafted him? 12:17 Kiley McDaniel: Only Michael Grove, since we didn’t have him on the board and from what we now know he sounds like an intriguing 40. But that’s about the player. The team drafting him means almost nothing to us. 12:17 Your boy: Nick Neidert’s K’s are shooting up. He credited his slider in one interview. Think he’s taken a step forward? 12:17 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like it 12:18 Johnny Coconuts: Looking back at what you and Eric had to say about Andujar, the profile was quite accurate seeing what he’s doing now. Does a player like him having great work ethic contribute to the level of confidence you put in profiling these prospects? 12:18 Kiley McDaniel: Making those kinds of adjustments three years in a row tends to mean he can keep making them 12:19 Nate: What are you thoughts on the Pirates draft so far? very college heavy….saving to draft a big prep name in the later rounds? 12:20 Kiley McDaniel: Fits what their types have been in recent years. Toolsy hitter with exit velo in Swaggerty. Projection arms that meet all the projection criteria in Ashcraft and Hoglund. Big SS in Kaiser, like Mercer and Cole Tucker. I think they’ll have enough to make a run at someone after the 10th 12:21 greg: Between the owners and mlbpa, which side would have the most interest going forward to get the ball rolling on being able to trade draft picks? 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: I assume it’s all scared, rich old white men holding it up. Arguments I’ve heard are 1) tradition 2) poor teams will sell off their picks and 3) agents will engineer trades now like the Eli Manning deal 12:23 Kiley McDaniel: 1) people like action and homers and guys throwing 100, get with the times. if you get another $1 million a year for free bc the draft becomes a TV event you’ll suddenly like the idea, so expand your mind a bit 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: 2) small market teams generally hoard prospects more than large market teams because they are worth more to small market teams. they will actually try to get all the picks from contending/large market teams. This isn’t the A’s in the 1970’s, the owners aren’t selling players for cash and pocketing it. 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: 3) it’s happened 1 times in like 30 years in football and the teams have the money and the slots for players to play. the agents don’t have leverage. we aren’t proposing a full on auction in place of a draft, even tho that would be the best option for everyone involved. One step at a time. 12:25 LudeBurger: I’m surprised you’re not in some coma after the bulk of the draft work 12:25 Kiley McDaniel: Ruff ruff this is Scout doing the chat someone rub my belly 12:25 Mike: It seems like the entire negotiation process for signing bonuses pre-draft is bound by an “honors system”. What’s to keep a player from upping his price after he’s already been picked? Or a club from dropping their offer? 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: That agent/GM has trouble ever getting an early deal done again 12:26 Dominik: Any info why the phillies preferred Bohm over madrigal? You have him half a grade higher. Can’t really be money considerations with all their forfeited picks, right? 12:27 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know why per se but we heard they preferred Bohm for months. We preferred Madrigal, some teams that preferred Bohm were scared by Madrigal’s size. Not sure if the Phils were but sounds like he was in their mix til the end, just the next guy on the board. 12:27 Pickle Nick: Are you hearing any rumors of the numbers that Rocker or Wilcox may have been asking for? 12:28 Kiley McDaniel: Heard 3+ for Wilcox, 4 for Rocker. We left Rocker off the last mock for that reason, Wilcox we almost left off but we thought he closed well enough that some team could bite. 12:29 Moltar: So I gathered that after taking Kelenic with designs to go under slot, the Mets would use those savings for over slot guys. Then they went for Woods-Richardson, who based on reports seems quite underwhelming for where they drafted him, presumably to also go under slot. So since then, have they taken anybody deserving of those savings? Who is the great overslot guy to make this all worth it? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like the Mets saved a couple hundred thousand on Kelenic, then played it close to slot the rest of the way. Would guess they can make a run at a guy today for like $600K if they want. 12:30 Dominik: Who would you consider the winners of the draft with the information we have now? TB? 12:30 Kiley McDaniel: LOL we don’t do that 12:30 Klubot3000: How do you feel about the Braves draft? Getting Beck in the 4th seemed like good value but is there a reason he fell so far? Is it the fringe-y fastball? Back issues? Any bonus pool concerns for the Braves draft overall? 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: Would assume Beck is overslot a bit, maybe late 2nd money which is about where he seemed to fit after he closed poorly this year. Flashed plus stuff at times in HS, more 50-55 stuff with inconsistent command this year, has had injury issues since HS. Love Jenista where they got him and Stewart would’ve been in our mix at 8, so good with that too. 12:32 Connor: Does Luke Heimlich get picked today? 12:33 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know what to think. Would’ve made sense to take yesterday for like $20k, saved some versus the pool and use it today. If you take him today, you’re basically just signing a free agent, same as signing him after the draft. Would be a copout to draft him today, thinking the 30th round is somehow less offensive than the 5th round. It’s the same thing. 12:34 Dylan: Surprised Zach Watson is still available? 12:34 Kiley McDaniel: Yes but sounds like the LSU sophomores set high prices 12:34 JamesF: Blue Jays 8th rounder Joey Murray… is the velocity that much of an issue in the Pro ranks? Asking because those are some sweet sweet NCAA stats he has goin on and wonder if what he has really can’t play in Pro. 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Like 87-91. Not a lot of that in the big leagues but there is some. 12:35 Jose : Who after Mize has the fastest track to the show? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Nick Sandlin, Durbin Feltman, Brady Singer, Nick Madrigal 12:35 RyanW: What’s next for you/Eric? J2 updates? Pro ball updates? Vacation? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Actually all of those. And showcases for next year’s draft start next week so I’ll be at PG National at the Trop 12:36 Rob: I should be really excited that Turang fell that far to the Brewers, right? 12:36 Kiley McDaniel: I think so. They continue to be opportunistic and take the value, which is probably the only correct dogmatic draft approach 12:36 Mike: In the draft, it seems like there’s a lot of information about which teams are interested in which players – even for teams that seem otherwise pretty secretive. Is there a lot of strategic misinformation and gamesmanship that goes on between teams? If so, what form does it typically take? Are some teams known to be more deceptive than others? What about gamesmanship between teams and players? (I can’t imagine that would be good policy for a team.) 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: Some teams are very careful about not sending top guys to games late and tip their interest, to try to zero in on guys early/middle and go in once late, when most teams are going in and it doesn’t arouse suspicion. Other teams are much easier to figure out. A GM showing up at a game is never not a blinking red light, even if it’s a smokescreen on top of a blinking red light. 12:38 Matt D: The Yankees drafted 2 catchers in the first 3 rounds. Are they both good at catching baseballs? Because Gary Sanchez is not very good at it and I’m sure he noticed. 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: Seigler is really good, Beaux is just okay right now 12:38 Doctor Parrot: As a Mariner fan, am I wrong to feel a bit underwhelmed about Gilbert? Seems like they passed up on a lot of guys with way more upside. 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know if you’re familiar with the Jerry experience but this is what everyone though would happen 12:39 T Ramsey : Hey kiley! Thanks for all the work you and Eric put out for the draft. Really enjoyed all the content including THE BOARD. Your guys’ draft coverage was second to none! 12:39 Kiley McDaniel: You guys have been very nice. Well most of you. Thanks 12:39 Jared: All football and money questions aside, was Murray still a reach for the A’s at 9 in your opinion? Or are the top ten skills there its just the question of signability? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: I feel like they drafted him about where he’d go if he had a long track record, which he doesn’t. Swaggerty has essentially the same level of tools and a little more track record. I would’ve just taken Swaggerty there, but a year from now I could see Murray moving ahead if he hits better. 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: There isn’t an enormous gap between them. Altho it sounds like Swaggerty would’ve been cheaper, maybe a lot cheaper. 12:41 Oyster Burns: is ryder green going to come with signability issues? 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: Heard pre-draft he was signable, so wouldn’t see an issue there. 12:42 Nicky: Hi, thanks for the chat. You guys spoiled some picks during the 1st day chat. Were you texting 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: Ha yeah we kinda spoiled a lot of picks. Yes, some of those were acquired via text message 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: textual messages, as the kids call them 12:43 Mike the White Sox Fan: Are you ready to be done with the draft yet? When does being a scout just become utterly exhausting? 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: It starts again in a few days! 12:43 David: No question – just wanted to thank you and Eric for all your coverage during the draft. The BOARD was fantastic, and your live chat during the 1st round really supplemented the entire experience. You guys are awesome!!! 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: Thanks for your support 12:43 TKDC: Can you explain how teams determine how to go over or under slot in order to get players? When a team drafts a guy, do they have a soft or hard agreement in place for a bonus beforehand? Are they just guessing about what they can offer based on his skill and comments from his representatives? 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: We had a few agents tell us that scouting directors were citing our mock draft in particular in negotiations to argue for below slot deals. Agents have to know where there is interest, teams have to know what the market is for the player and we play a role in letting one side know what the other side knows. 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: Often a number is decided on before the pick but there’s plenty of 1st rounders where the agent said to the team “take who you think the best guy is” and that’s code for “it’ll be slot or a little above, we can figure it out later, we won’t be unreasonable but we aren’t cutting a deal bc we think you’re gonna pick us anyway” 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: More than a couple agents described discussions to us that basically went like that 12:46 Jonathan: I know you guys are probably exhausted at this point, but I have to shamelessly ask: when are you planning to update the BOARD’s MiLB prospect section, and (rough guess) how many FVs do you think will change? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: Probably next week and at least a couple dozen, maybe several dozen 12:47 Nicky: Hi, thanks for the chat. You guys spoiled some picks during the chat on day one, were you texting (or SNSing) during the draft with guys in the draft room? If so, what are those guys doing during the draft? Sharing information with guys in other organizations and coordinating picks during the draft? 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: Oh yeah, SMSing that’s what the kids call it I knew I was missing something 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: Especially in the 2nd half of the 1st round, teams want to know who is going off before them and action is moving faster. So teams often will tell others or agents know and tell us and we can kinda help everyone and report some along the way. We had a few more we could’ve spoiled but liked to have two sources on each one. 12:49 AJ: How much do you guys like Xavier Edwards? Looks like you guys were a litter higher on him. Can he stay at short? 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: We really like him, probably more 2B/CF but I’ve seen a SS arm from him before, it just wasn’t there this spring. 12:50 Jake Junis Priest : should i be worried that the highlight reel for the ss selected 2nd be the Orioles is mostly him striking out? 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: Ironically that is one part of the eval there. He needs a swing rework but his tools are 1st round. Turned down 1st round money out of high school. 12:50 Stevil: In your opinion, who appears to have helped their organization the best through the first two days of the draft and who may have done the least? 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: Well that’s mostly just the teams with lots of picks, but it’ll be much easier to tell post signing deadline when we line up the team lists again 12:51 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The Rays will let Tanner Dodson hit and pitch. I still hold the pipe dream of Brendan McKay doing both, but Dodson is an outfielder/pitcher. They have to move him to DH/1B when he isn’t pitching, right? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: Not sure how they will handle that. Dodson is a CF/RF tweener and unclear if he’s a starter or reliever. 12:52 Mike: Thoughts on how far overslot Casas and Decker will be? Seems the Sox went pretty conservative on Day 2. 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: I believe Casas just a bit and would guess Decker was close to slot 12:52 The Amateur Amateur Scout: Good call on mocking Hankins to the Tribe. As a fan I was excited to see them grab him. Do you think he has the tools to become an impact pitcher in the pros, even if it takes like a 90th percentile outcome? 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Shout out to the people that berated us for mocking McClanahan and Hankins in the 30s like we were insane. You guys are the best. The key is if Hankins’ slider comes back. Without it, he’s a durable #4, with it, he could be much better 12:53 Topper Harley: Do you view a power prospect that is going almost exclusively opposite field as a positive or a negative (ala Kiriloff)? 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: Depends on if he’s late versus velo but it isn’t fast enough for him to miss it yet (but it will be in MLB) or he’s driving the ball with an all field approach 12:54 Derek: What is Grant Little’s ceiling? Thanks! 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: 100 wRC+, playing somewhere in the infield. I mean that’s a 2-3 War guy right? Not likely, but could do that. 12:57 Hannah Hochevar: thanks for the buckets of work! 12:57 Kiley McDaniel: man you guys are in a good mood today i’ll take it 12:58 Chaz: Are you guys going to the HS showcase events this summer? PG game UA game PG national etc 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be at PG National, College Team USA, probably some of Marietta, East Coast Pro, probably Area Codes in the summer and Diamond Club/Jupiter/HS team USA in the fall 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Also Futures Game and likely some AFL…that’s probably travel for the year. Oh and the FG Denver thing 1:01 Mike: Not to give too much away because i know a new board is being posted soon, but how many angels should we expect to see in the next top 100 update? 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: They have the most guys rising since the last thing, so you’re right to ask that 1:01 Ryan: Overall thoughts on Drew Waters? 1:02 Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like the offensive potential is showing itself pretty quickly. Another reason not to freak out on high school players right after the draft 1:02 Slamboni: I feel like the Rangers pick of Cole Winn was HATED by all the local beat writers, but I keep reading from national writers that it was a wonderful pick. Is it good because his skill has been steady, and bad because this is who he pretty much is? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: Trying to be diplomatic here but what would a local Rangers writer know about any of these players? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: Winn was possibly the lowest risk prep pitcher in the draft, but if you knew nothing about the players you’d just sigh and say oh jeez a prep pitcher we don’t want that 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: In a larger sense, it’s almost like draft analysis shouldn’t be done by people who don’t know what they’re talking about, in print or on TV /kermit sipping tea 1:07 Kiley McDaniel: Would you guys watch a broadcast/stream with me and Eric? Of course (93.6% | 148 votes) Prob just stick with the MLB one (6.3% | 10 votes) Total Votes: 158 1:07 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The Board. <3 1:07 Zip-a-dee-doo-da: Which Orioles pick was a better pitcher at the time they were drafted: Hunter Harvey (2013) or Grayson Rodriguez (2018) 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: I’d take Harvey, if we’re talking draft day version of both 1:08 Mountie Votto: Bren Spillane seems a lot like Gavin LaValley 2.0…is there more there? Both big boys with a truckload of power and a bit of athleticism and not a ton else 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: Similar kind of guy, but Spillane went nuts in college and LaValley had a short track record even for prep hitters with mostly just HS performance rather than showcase stuff 1:09 Sullivan: Bro… being late is MY thing… 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: LOL was on the podcast with him before this (I started at the scheduled 12:10 that I put on the chat when I created it) and he told me it was cool if I was late 1:09 Bravesy McBravesface: Why do the MLB draft analysts feel the need to compare every player who gets picked to a Hall of Famer? 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: That’s kinda my point with the poll. I get that some super casual fans want that, but what super casual fan is watching when the ratings are a 0.3? 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: Just grabbing a look at the picks from today. Noah Davis was UCSB to the Reds is an interesting one. Just had TJ recently, looked like a first day talent in the fall, up to 97 with a sinker, SP profile. 1:12 Jorge: Should Braves fans be happy with getting Beck in the 4th? 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: Yes 1:12 DRL: Kiley, based on offensive WAR alone, who do you think provides more value in their first 6 seasons. Madrigal or India? 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: Madrigal 1:13 Topper Harley: With how fast rounds 11-40 move, have you heard of a team accidentally trying to take someone who is already off the board? 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: I know a story about a team drafting a guy with the same name as the guy they wanted, then coming back and taking the guy they actually wanted with the next pick. 1:14 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t want to publish the question, but Dave Winters send me a DM on twitter 1:14 Bored Employee: The Orioles draft made me sad 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: There’s the chat questions I’m used to 1:15 Kiley McDaniel: Maybe this will cheer you up 1:15 Matt: Any word on why Gorman got to 19? Are teams convinced he’s a 1b or was there something else causing concern? 1:16 Kiley McDaniel: I think him and Singer just lost a couple coin flips and could’ve gone 10 picks higher with different luck, or teams picking in a different order 1:16 Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: “Expand your mind a bit” are you suggesting we give all the GMs LSD? Is Dock Ellis still alive? He might have the hook up. 1:16 Kiley McDaniel: Lol that was clearly what I meant 1:16 HugoZ: “Scared old white men”? Are we racially profiling now? 1:16 Kiley McDaniel: Did I describe the commissioner, owners and team presidents inaccurately? Who else could I possibly be talking about? These issues aren’t on the ballot in local elections. C’mon you people are smarter than this. And, to be clear, they aren’t all scared of progress, but the ones that are are holding this and other things up when they are talked about. 1:17 Draft Addict: So 2019 draft….. 1:17 Kiley McDaniel: That’s also coming! 1:18 Kiley McDaniel: We aren’t turning the page on this draft and not doing any 2019 draft stuff until January. It’ll be less prominent obviously but this is a year round thing. 1:18 Kiley McDaniel: Which may read as a threat to some readers who aren’t draft inclined 1:18 Bravesy McBravesface: Why do bonus pools exist? Why not just hard slot the draft? 1:19 Kiley McDaniel: Owners want a cap on spending but teams want some latitude for creativity. Also some prep players have such wide opinions on them, unless you allow trading of picks, maybe the 10 teams with the slot to sign them don’t like them enough, so they can’t play pro ball. 1:20 Mountie Votto: Tell me why I shouldn’t be underwhelmed by the Reds Day 2 draft outside of Siani… 1:21 Kiley McDaniel: Well Siani will get way overslot, so all the other picks are kinda in service of signing him. Why are you so negative? 1:21 Bravesy McBravesface: The generally accepted draft strategy in the MLB is to take the best player available at every slot. So why is it that we see teams reach down the board for inferior talent instead, hoping that they can take someone else that’s good later? 1:22 Kiley McDaniel: I’ve said this a bunch of times but concept of industry consensus rankings doesn’t apply to any one team. Some teams have multiple guys that went day one in the 5th round on their board. They have some guy that went 20th ranked 5th on their board, etc. With every board looking that different, taking the below slot option is more taking the cheap guy between three guys you can’t separate. 1:23 Patty O’Furniture: Braves just took Nolan Kingham in the 12th. Is this a steal? 1:23 Kiley McDaniel: Could be. Very lively arm, inconsistent performance 1:23 Timmuh in the PHL: What did you have for breakfast today? 1:24 Kiley McDaniel: Celebrated a bit by sleeping in and then made some sausage and egg tacos that were a 65 first time out, which was a nice surprise 1:25 Kiaan: Have you heard anything on Nick Northcut’s $$$ demand? Red Sox just picked him in the 11th after going heavy under slot yesterday so they must think they can sign him. 1:26 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know the number but I know he was seen as a likely college guy, so it’s not insignificant 1:26 Matt: I know you guys don’t focus on fantasy, but you’ve made things a lot more fun for me in that regard. Thanks! 1:26 Kiley McDaniel: I hope you mean fantasy baseball! 1:27 Bo: Do you think teams liked Singer’s “competitiveness”? Or do they see it as a sign of immaturity? 1:28 Kiley McDaniel: I think he slid due mostly to his delivery, which is also why we had him lower than most. We ranked him in a glut of a bunch of similar guys and could’ve justified a bit lower, too. We knew pre-draft there were multiple teams 6-15 that would not take him, it just didn’t seem relevant to mention in a mock. 1:29 Craig: Hey Scout, Baltimore reached for Grayson Rodriguez at 11, supposedly underslot, yet never picked anyone who was still available and could get an overslot deal. Did they just really like Rodriguez or is Peter Angelos refusing to spend on the draft in addition to internationally? 1:29 Kiley McDaniel: That Rodriguez bonus is just a hair below slot 1:29 Cory: Who is the early favorite for #1 overall next year? 1:30 Kiley McDaniel: Bryson Stott SS at UNLV, Hunter Barco prep lefty in Jacksonville are two of the main names but that will clear up a bit in the next month. 1:30 Mountie Votto: When you list someone as a 35+ FV on the board, what exactly does the + indicate? 1:30 Kiley McDaniel: Higher than the other 35s, like the top of a grouping in the others of note on the team prospect lists 1:31 Guest: So were there any agents / org. guys in your draft chat??? 1:31 Kiley McDaniel: Probably not I think they had some work to be doing 1:31 Kiley McDaniel: They were definitely monitoring us on other channels, tho 1:32 Billy Beane: You think JJ Schwarz has any chance to catch? Seems like he has a lot more upside than most 8th rounders. 1:32 Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think so, long-term 1:32 Mountie Votto: Can you tell me a little more about Josiah Gray and Lyon Richardson, the two low-mileage arms the Reds nabbed? From what I understand, both are pretty new to pitching and there could be some upside there 1:33 Kiley McDaniel: Josiah was a D2 conversion guy that’s loose and has arm speed but is pretty rough and looks like a reliever to us. Lyon was a two way guy, good ath, but kinda maxed out, some don’t love the arm action, but up to 96, 55 SL, starter look. assuming Josiah was below slot to make room for Siani. 1:33 Jimmy: Favorite day 3 guys? 1:33 Kiley McDaniel: If he’s signable, assuming he isn’t, Ole Miss CF Ryan Olenek has been a favorite of mine for awhile 1:33 Travis Swaggerty: Was I a steal at #10? 1:34 Kiley McDaniel: Yes 1:34 Bo: Why do teams even bother drafting HS seniors in later rounds? Surely they almost always go to college, right? 1:34 Kiley McDaniel: Some sign for 125K, most do no sign, a handful will get 300K+ 1:35 Juan Soto: JUAN. SOTO. 1:35 Kiley McDaniel: Whoa the end kinda snuck up on me this time 1:35 Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON. 1:36 Kiley McDaniel: Yep there’s the closing bell. I’ll catch you guys next week but don’t worry I’ll probably write 10,000 words before then. Or maybe worry…your call on that.