Kiley McDaniel Chat – 7/24/19
12:59 |
: Hello from ATL back on my normal chat day. Scout is napping nearby after some solid pre lunch zoomies. |
1:00 |
: Most importantly, my smoked wings really came out well, but also dabbled in some bacon wrapped ricotta dates and grilled peach burrata the last few days. Gonna try to smoke some ribs at some point this week, too. |
1:00 |
: on the baseball end of things, some cool stuff dropped today |
1:00 |
Luis Patino from the Futures Game: : video from |
1:01 |
: lots more of that at that twitter account and @fangraphs in instagram |
1:01 |
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/farm-system-rankings-are-now-o… : also we unveiled our dynamic farm rankings and they are very purty after some hard work from Sean Dolinar: |
1:01 |
: all the context you need about how to use those is in the short post |
1:02 |
: to your questions: |
1:02 |
: Would you ever, under any circumstances, order soup at a ballpark |
1:03 |
: If I hadn’t eaten before, brought no snacks and there was nothing suitable in the press box (almost 0% chance) and it’s also near freezing, then I would consider it for warmth purposes. I can’t imagine how good a soup would have to be to make me want to eat it at a game. Just so inconvenient and easy to spill when sitting/walking around drunk morons/FG readers. |
1:03 |
: coffee comes with a top but otherwise is also a warmth option that has some spillable issues |
1:03 |
: Unless I missed something, haven’t the Yankees spent more than their IFA pool without trading for more space? How does that work? |
1:04 |
: The Jhon Diaz signing never officially occurred, contrary to some reports. |
1:08 |
Corbin Martin injury & Forrest Whitley slow start have knocked them down, but isn’t their farm system deep enough to absorb those blows and still be able to acquire a top-end starting pitcher? : Ken Rosenthal recently reported that there’s some skepticism that the Astros have the talent pool to acquire a top-end starting pitcher. I know the |
1:09 |
Yordan Alvarez is off the table. Kyle Tucker has been fine and we think he’ll be good, so there’s one piece. Then it’s all potential 5’s on the 2-8 scale, or no projected 3 WAR types. There’s some depth, but I can see the point that there aren’t a bunch of top 100 types that could headline any deal. Lots of teams have that issue, though. : Well Whitley probably isn’t available even with the slow start. You are selling pretty low on Corbin Martin. |
1:10 |
: With the retirement of Pat Casey and the pitching coach leaving, do you foresee a drop-off in the caliber of draft prospects from Oregon State? |
1:10 |
: Didn’t like how they treated pitching coach Nate Yeskie after he passed on some huge jobs and made their pitching program elite. He’s now with Arizona. |
1:11 |
: But I don’t think shuffling the coaching staff around really changes what sort of talent is available to them. Maybe they won’t do as well developing/picking the players, but I don’t see a fundamental issue. |
1:11 |
George Valera? Still a ways away, but looks promising. : What are your thoughts on |
1:11 |
: We’re very in |
1:14 |
|
1:15 |
: Valera has one of the prettier swings in the minors, performance to go with it, potential 55-60 hit and power and a chance to stay in CF for awhile. |
1:15 |
Riley Greene due to the athleticism, but a similar sort of guy : That’s better than the 5th overall pick in the draft |
1:16 |
: Greene is 82nd on the top 100 and is also 18 |
1:16 |
Royce Lewis to be such a poor producer this season? Will this affect his prospect ranking, and how does this affect his call-up date? : What do you think is causing |
1:17 |
: Covered this on twitter: it’s easy to look at his numbers & drop him but we/scouts think the offensive fix is mechanical & MIN is letting him figure it out on his own. an algorthim canwhen he’s slumping andwhen he does what we think he’ll do. we try to predict the future, not grade the past. @kileymcd It seems like everyone else dropped Royce Lewis but you. Any thoughts on that?
|
1:18 |
: Do you think we see MLB allow draft picks to be traded soon? Why is it not already allowed? I get the concerns on salary dump deals but that just happens anyways for low-level prospects. |
1:19 |
: The long-standing concerns (Eli Manning-style dictating where you go…which doesn’t even happen in football in a much more high profile draft more than once every 10-20 years) were silly at the time and look sillier now. If it doesn’t happen in the next CBA, I bet it happens in the next one after that. The next CBA will almost certainly include an international draft with trading of all of those picks and you can trade competitive balance picks in the domestic draft, so it’s not a huge leap. |
1:20 |
Noelvi Marte? Can he move up like a Brujan? : What’s your thoughts on |
1:21 |
: Not the same kind of guy. Power over hit IF that isn’t a runner. With value tied in the bat and young for the level, you can scout the statline a bit. Nolan Gorman is a similar type that made a Brujan-level rise, so look for that. |
1:21 |
: Moniak now outperforming the likes of taylor trammel, has the opinion on his stock risen as well? |
1:23 |
: Important to note that we predicted Moniak would have a strong season by wRC+ because it’s league-adjusted but not park-adjusted. Phillies AA Reading affiliate is a bandbox that has propped up org prospects in the past. Doesn’t mean Moniak is another org prospect, but the numbers are juiced a bit for comparative purposes, so I’d say they’re performing about the same. |
1:23 |
Tarik Skubal be? : How good can |
1:25 |
: Has taken a nice step forward this year and I saw him at the beginning of his time in Lakeland. There isn’t a 60 quality there, so it’s a depth starter. The stuff bring fringy vs. 55 and command being fringy vs. 55 will dictate if this is more 4th starter or 6th/spot starter/middle reliever. But it’s 3 pitches that all flash 50 or better and a lefty up to 96, so it’s a nice find for Detroit. |
1:25 |
: What odds would you put on there being an international draft in 2020? |
1:25 |
|
1:26 |
Luis Robert to give him a FV 60+? : What do you need to see from |
1:27 |
: This goes back to a conversation I have with fantasy baseball dynasty friends that ask me which hitting prospects to pick up when they’re promoted. I tell them generally to take the lower K rate because their game translates to the big leagues easier (better performance from day 1) and they’ll reach their upside faster, even if it’s lower. |
1:28 |
Lewis Brinson (18% in AAA in 2017) was a better bet than Cody Bellinger (20% in AA in 2016, 27% the year before that). : Then a friend didn’t want to bug me and assumed using K% as a guide that |
1:29 |
: In retrospect that seems silly, but you can see there’s limits to this approach |
1:29 |
: I had to explain that Brinson was a swing and miss type with crazy tools that had a lower K rate because his tools didn’t allow him to be tested until MLB, so his AAA K rate makes him seem lower risk than he is |
1:30 |
: and Bellinger is power-focused, does it well and is an athlete with bat control (important distinction), so his approach was a conscious tradeoff and was mature in that it would work in AA similarly to how it would work in MLB |
1:31 |
: which is not obvious even from reading our reports closely, though you may pick up that sort of nuance if you’re a long-time reader |
1:32 |
: I bring all this up to say that while I’m not saying Luis Robert is Lewis Brinson, his issue is similar in that he’s so toolsy he can’t be challenged in AAA. We’ve heard from analysts and scouts that his pitch selection is still an issue (particularly off-speed) and he’ll need to figure that out in the big leagues, which could be painful and slow (Brinson) or go quickly because his tools are also elite in MLB and that it won’t challenge him for more than a couple months (Ronald Acuna). |
1:34 |
Yoan Moncada had an issue somewhere between Bellinger and Brinson, in that he was a little stiff and didn’t have elite bat control, but had a good approach, so he just needed to dial in his approach to do maximum damage when the right pitch was there and realize he wouldn’t be a career .300 hitter. : Another recent White Sox super prospect, |
1:35 |
: It took Moncada about 900 PA to make an improvement (he’s been pretty BABIP lucky this year, so the improvement is a little overstated) but we’ve said before that we’d much rather have a Moncada-type because the pitch selection and power means you’ll always get to the power in games since you can pick pitches to drive, you just may hit .250 or whatever (but w/solid OBP). |
1:37 |
: The other type of player, Brinson/Robert will have trouble getting to the power in games against elite pitching due to poorer pitch selection, also not walk much, so at least until an adjustment is made (if it is made), it’s empty batting average driven by bat control and people waiting for the breakout. |
1:37 |
: Explaining this in detail a few times makes me think we should grade plate discipline and bat control when elite hitting prospects are in the upper minors to help classify which sort of hitter each guy is. |
1:38 |
: So, the much shorter version is that Robert probably won’t be a 60 FV for us because to prove that he’s clear of the Lewis Brinson trap will probably take most of an MLB season to prove, given that we don’t think he’ll change in Triple-A. |
1:38 |
: (thus he will have graduated the prospect list when/if he proves it) |
1:39 |
: Is there any information on the where the top 2020 J2 players are anticipated to sign, assuming there isn’t an international draft? |
1:40 |
: We have an internal sheet with dozens of players and the deals we know about, along with fewer top 2021s and the same info. Not sure when we want to publish it? Haven’t really discussed how far in advance of signing day we want to publicize this stuff. |
1:40 |
Kirby Yates: packaging him with the Wil Myers contract (using the financial flexibility in the off-season to go after an ace), or aiming for even more prospects to add to the pile? : Kiley!! What’s a better use of |
1:42 |
: In a totally rational/efficient market, it should yield the same benefit. That said, I don’t think teams want to take on negative surplus deals to save flexibility and I wonder if SD would go spend a bunch of money if they dumped Myers deal with all the youngsters coming now? You’d also be selling low on Myers, so I would probably hold him and hope he recoups value. |
1:43 |
: Farm Value update to THE BOARD rules. It’s also encouraging to Mariners fans to see that high Avg. $ number, but a bunch of 50s still feels a bit star-starved. Which – if any – of their 50-55 guys have a reasonable shot at becoming 60-70/star level guys? |
1:46 |
: Kelenic probably will if he keeps doing this, same for
|
1:46 |
: What is with the hype on Nolan Gorman? I understand that the power is there, but the hit tool seems like a huge question mark |
1:48 |
: Based on him striking out a little above league average when he crushed the Midwest League at 19 and got promoted? That’s pretty flimsy evidence when you look at age vs. level. Gorman is closer to the Bellinger end of things, btw, as a solid approach guy that’s trying to hit for power, is pretty mature for his age in that approach and could hit for more average if he chose to. Not the same level of athlete/bat control as Bellinger, obviously, just toward his end of that spectrum. |
1:48 |
: What do you see for Yordan Alvarez in the next year or so – hot start or sustainable high-end bat? |
1:49 |
: Teams seem sold on what he currently is continuing. He has older guy skills and is probably a DH, so that means he could regress sooner than more conventionally athletic players, but this seems real, even if 185 wRC+ isn’t really sustainable long-term. |
1:50 |
: I think Bohm is already better than Franco. I know it is a big jump but would you just bring him up? He cant be worse than Franco can he? Moniak’s walk rates are really improving. At what point can we believe he will sustain them? Has his improvements this year changed your outlook on him? |
1:50 |
: just letting you guys see the kind of questions I don’t normally publish |
1:50 |
Jeff McNeil is Ichiro” guy in the Trade Value Rankings comment section : reminds me of the “ |
1:50 |
: With Song signing for 100k and a decent shot at deferring his commitment, are you surprised no one popped him sooner given he was a late first early second talent? |
1:51 |
: Yeah, I am. Everyone seems to agree he was a 2nd round talent and almost no 2nd rounder is making the big leagues in the next couple of years, while Song is very polished so he won’t take a ton longer than his peers. The risk is that he’s 24-25 when you get him and he’s rusty, but to discount a 7-figure talent to 100k seems like an overreaction due to a unknown that can’t really be that bad |
1:52 |
: scouts hate unknowns, but there seems to be a cap on how bad this one could be |
1:52 |
: Does Pache’s game power still grade out at 20/45? Seems like he’s gotten to it a lot more consistently this year. |
1:53 |
: Pache is more on the Robert/Brinson end of the spectrum btw. A little too aggressive, getting by on raw talent for now, could take some time to reach his true talent level in MLB in terms of wRC+ |
1:53 |
Ke’Bryan Hayes going to be like a Matt Chapman with less power? : Is |
1:54 |
: Similar skills, so it’s possible, but wouldn’t expect 3-5 WAR type |
1:54 |
Felipe Vazquez for Drew Waters and Kyle Muller. Would you do that if you were Neil Huntington? : Morosi had a hypothetical trade this morning between the Braves and the Pirates. |
1:55 |
: I’ve heard Waters and Pache are the two guys off the table in any talks for ATL, since you can imagine sellers are hoping to deal with ATL , TBR, LAD among the contenders, if you were to consult our new farm rankings! |
1:56 |
: Priester is off to a good start. Could he turn into a guy that could become a #2-3 type starter down the road like Keller has seemed to? |
1:56 |
: Yeah, they have some similarities in terms of projection Midwest arms with a wide base of skills, SP traits. |
1:57 |
: What do you miss most/least about working for a team? |
1:58 |
: Being tied to the outcome of the team or a specific player. That’s the one thing you can only have on the team side. I’d argue almost every other aspect is better on this side. |
1:59 |
Jonathan Stiever (CWS 5th Rounder, 2018) is absent from The Board but 122 K’s vs. 22 BB’s in 113 IP across two A ball levels. Reports that he’s touching 98. Any chatter on him? : |
1:59 |
: Yep, he’s on our list of guys to add, so he’ll probably be appearing in the next day or so? |
1:59 |
: A Whitley led package for Thor, who says no? The Astros get a top line starter to slot in behind Verlander and Cole this year and replace Cole if he leaves via FA. The Mets get a young controllable potential front line starter who would have been untouchable a few months ago. Maybe throw Josh James in a secondary piece so he finally gets a chance to start somewhere. |
1:59 |
: Healthy Whitley has more value than Thor and he may still right now. |
2:00 |
Joe Ryan’s performance in A+ an intriguing development or a nifty but ultimately unexciting affirmation of what we already knew about him? : Is |
2:00 |
: Velo is up and he’s performing, but it’s mostly fastball, feel and deception, so it’s just a nice progression of what we had preseason |
2:01 |
: Any early reports on
|
2:02 |
: NYY was aggressive about resting him when there was soreness and otherwise he’s been pitching about as we expected, in the low-90’s |
2:03 |
Starling Marte, would that be enough for Wander Franco? If not, what would the Pirates have to add to that to get Franco? Hypothetically. : If the Pirates offered the Rays Felipe Vazquez and |
2:03 |
: guys, I don’t think TB is trading Franco |
2:03 |
Gareth Morgan? His numbers since joining the Angels are insane…what would his tools rate as, and does he have any chance of making it? : I got to ask…have you ever seen a prospect like |
2:03 |
https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828708&position=OF : I mean check out his player page, guys: |
2:04 |
: he was a famous young player, playing on the Canadian Natl Team for years, PG All American, 70 raw power but not much else |
2:05 |
: Opposing teams would have to pry Lux and May from Friedman’s cold, dead hands, right? |
2:06 |
: Yeah guys like that don’t really get traded and especially not by teams like LAD |
2:08 |
Ezequiel Duran is performing quite well this year as you originally projected. Can you share your thoughts on his season and what he’s looking like? Top 100? : Yankees prospect |
2:09 |
: Got lots of questions on Yankees 2B prospect Ezequiel Duran last year when his loud spring training and our aggressive ranking ended up in a subpar year of snowballing issues. Literally look now because he’s 20 in the NYPL and is now doing what we expected fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl…
|
2:10 |
: another one I covered on twitter, so I’ll just link to that |
2:11 |
Mitch Haniger’s ruptured testicle? : Any update on |
2:11 |
: STILL NO THOUGHTS ON THIS LET’S MOVE ON, GUYS |
2:12 |
: Quite a few reports suggest that Robert Puason has regressed over the past year or so? Do you generally agree that he has regressed? Are we looking at another Kevin Meitan in terms of the likelihood of a significant bust? |
2:12 |
: Well Puason didn’t really play in widely-scouted games over the last year, so it would just be guesswork |
2:13 |
: The next step now is to value all the major-league rosters, and add that to the minors, yes? San Diego dropped in the farm rankings because Tatis graduated, but they’re hardly a less valuable team moving forward because their best prospect is now raking for the big-league club. |
2:13 |
: I’d like to add a “Graduated” column so you can see what’s been lost since the offseason list and then also do what you’re describing |
2:13 |
: Did you just call us drunk morons? |
2:14 |
: well i either called you guys drunk morons or specifically separated you from the drunk morons, implying no crossover |
2:15 |
: When a team signs a J2 guy (ex: Royals and Erick Pena), where is the beginning landing spot ordinarily? Haven’t heard much about him since the signing. DSL? |
2:15 |
: All the 16-year-olds that sign this summer sign 2020 contracts so the team doesn’t waste a year of Rule 5 protection for half a season in the DSL |
2:16 |
: So they sign, move into the academy, play in simulated or Tricky League (think like instructional league between the 2020 contracted-players and tryout players), then either go to US instructs in the fall (if they’re advanced) and/or DR instructs a little later in the fall. Then in March they are on a normal schedule. |
2:17 |
: wRC+ seems almost useless for minor leaguers in leagues where park environments can vary so much (looking at Nashville in the PCL as an example)…are there any potential updates to make there down the line to at least try and encompass some of those differences? |
2:17 |
: MILB park factors are tough since there’s so many new parks, teams that move, temporary parks while one is being built, underpublicized changes to the dimensions, etc. |
2:18 |
: We’d be under/over adjusting a lot of guys so we just opted not to do that and you can take guys from like Asheville or Reading that are outliers in their leagues and adjust them down mentally |
2:18 |
: which isn’t perfect, obviously |
2:19 |
: Have I surpassed Kyle Tucker in your mind? |
2:19 |
: You’re 8 spots behind him now and you were about 100 spots behind him before the year. I’d guess you pass him in the next month as you graduate from prospect lists |
2:19 |
: Any hypothesis where Jasson Dominquez starts his pro career in 2020? Extended spring training then Gulf Coast league or think we can go straight to Appalachian or Penn? |
2:20 |
: Wander Franco and Vlad Jr. started in the Appy League, where NYY has an affiliate. I would guess he plays there at some point in 2020 but he could start in the GCL or go straight there from extended. |
2:20 |
: Is Wander Franco an MLB replacement level player right now? |
2:21 |
: Yes. He can play almost any position at an average or better level, plus runner, pop and a good approach with strong K rates. I bet he’d outperform some utility IF types you could grab on waivers now |
2:23 |
: A lot has been made said about Ronny Mauricio and his rising prospect status being at least partially attributed to strong performance in A ball while being far younger than leave average…he has a sub .700 OPS–what am i missing? |
2:24 |
: He’s performing at a league average rate at age 18 against lots of 21-23 year olds and Mauricio is a lanky, twitchy, projectable SS with power and bat speed |
2:25 |
: Not every elite prospect posts league-leading numbers as the youngest player in the league like Vlad Jr. or Wander Franco. |
2:25 |
: By your explanation Luis Robert falls into a Starling Marte comp |
2:25 |
: Marte is a classic example of something like a 30 to 40 plate discipline guy that has something like 70 bat control can make it work |
2:26 |
: I wouldn’t make a habit of betting on that type of player being as good as Starling Marte, especially if you’re expecting it within a year or two of being called up |
2:26 |
: and Robert has a lot more raw power than Marte |
2:27 |
: Kiley, do you think the prospects directing where they go is actually getting less silly with the differences in player development? If Scott Boras is your advisor and you are a pitcher, I would think he would strike a delicate balance between wanting you to get the most money possible and also wanting you to be a Yankee or an Astro. |
2:27 |
: If that were the Eli Manning-style request a player made when every pick was tradable, then that would be on the team, not the market size/agent as owners were scared it would be. |
2:28 |
: You could say that a guru-type gets a kid hooked on a certain progressive approach and goes off the deep end and the kid only wants to play for teams that do this specific approach…that could be counter-productive for the kid but also this would be akin to the one good part of college recruiting where the kid can choose what fits him. |
2:29 |
: That LuBob explanation was excellent, btw. Extremely well explained |
2:29 |
: Thanks! I don’t like explaining stuff in a chat at that length but it also doesn’t seem like an article per se? |
2:29 |
: Do you think Kelenic or Julio Rodriguez show enough promise of becoming a top 10 type prospect that could elevate their farm system into top 3-5 amongst orgs? |
2:31 |
Jo Adell type, so that’s possible, though not likely. Kelenic doesn’t have a direct comp currently in the top 10 of our rankings (sorta like Lux?), but he also could. : Julio is on the trajectory of a |
2:31 |
: Mick Abel was not in Chicago this past weekend. where would he fit among the pitchers that did attend? |
2:31 |
: He’s the top HS pitcher in the class |
2:32 |
: arguably the top HS prospect, but certainly consensus top 5 |
2:32 |
: As far as the J2 for 2020 would it at least be possible to say what teams could have the top classes? |
2:34 |
: The big money deals (2M+) that we have currently are with MIN, TBR, CHC, DET, WSH, OAK, NYY. We believe 3.9M and 3.5M are the only bonuses over 3.0M at the moment. There’s another one that we’ve heard may be over 3M but aren’t sure yet about the figure. |
2:35 |
: There was a big bruhaha on social media about the Japanese high school pitcher in the past week. Is he eligible to sign with an MLB team as an intl FA once he graduates high school? Does he have to choose not enter the Japanese draft to be signed by an MLB team? |
2:37 |
: The uneasy understood agreement among MLB and NPB is that if the NPB wants a Japanese HS kid, they get them. And if an MLB club signs one of those, there’s some retribution from NPB in terms of not giving you scouts seats at their games, etc. So it’s very unlikely the kid signs with MLB out of HS unless he’s a real rebel that wants to thumb his nose at authority and go be on the big stage…which I’m realizing as I type it are very American qualities. Ohtani was very close to doing this and had a number agreed to with LAD out of HS but was pressured to choose NPB. |
2:38 |
Hideo Nomo for the genesis of the first player to really make it a viable choice for many NPB players to come over. : Ohtani also clearly has some if not all of those qualities and still opted to sign with NPB. I would recommend the excellent 30 for 30 podcast about |
2:39 |
: I think “John” is saying Bohm is better than MAIKEL Franco not WANDER Franco…not sure if that changes your calculus to his question… |
2:40 |
: That makes more sense! Wander comes up in this chat more than Maikel. Not sure I’d say he’s better today but he’s not that far off and that may change by the end of the year |
2:40 |
: Do MLB teams tank for the draft. If there is a guy with a 70 FV in the draft would teams actively try to lose to get that player? |
2:41 |
: If the team was already going to be bad and you knew over 12 months in advance this was a generational guy, then yes they would |
2:41 |
: some GMs are quietly rooting for their team to lose down the stretch when a 1-game difference could move them up a few spots in the top 10 of the draft |
2:42 |
: What’s the deal here? Is wRC+ park adjusted or not? “Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average after controlling for park effects.” |
2:42 |
: park adjusted in MLB, not in MILB |
2:42 |
: What are Jasson Dominguez current and future grades? |
2:43 |
: THE BOARD! Is great, good work |
2:43 |
: thanks! you should also thank Dolinar and Appelman |
2:43 |
: I can’t believe the soup question got top billing in this chat |
2:43 |
: If you’re loading your hotdog with toppings and the seam of the bun breaks, does it then become a sandwich? |
2:43 |
: oh man, we’re there. |
2:43 |
: GET TO THE CHOPPER |
2:43 |
: Should genetically modified humans be allowed to play in the MLB, assuming they don’t take steroids? |
2:43 |
: MATT. DAMON. |
2:44 |
: see you guys next week! |
Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
Gareth Morgan has struck out 701 times in 1410 ABs in the minors in his career. 102 K’s in 184 ABs this yr as a 23yo in A+… that’s insane