Kiley McDaniel Chat – 9/4/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, Scout is resting alongside me as she’s about to begin nap #3 of the day.

Kiley McDaniel: We just posted some changes to THE BOARD on twitter that are reflected on the site

Kiley McDaniel: here is the board link: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: here be the tweet:

 

FanGraphs Prospects

@FG_Prospects

 

Some late changes to THE BOARD before we pull this train into the offseason station:

Up
A. Aquino/CIN 50 FV, 94th overall
E. Cabrera/MIA 50, 108th
A. Vargas/NYY 45
L. Medina/NYY 45

Down
C. Winn/TEX 45+

Added
F. Valdez/NYM 35+

fangraphs.com/prospects/the-…

4 Sep 2019

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll probably be sneaking out to the Gwinnett/Columbus playoff game tomorrow, waiting to hear back but expecting Logan Allen v Kyle Wright with Pache, Waters, Riley, Alex Jackson vs. Zimmer, Daniel Johnson, Bobby Bradley. That would be good

Kiley McDaniel: the prospects landing page has prospect leaderboards, graduation tracker and all of our content: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: Sung Min Kim has been at the U18 worlds, including 2020 draft dudes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-dispatch-from-days-three-and-four-of-the…

Kiley McDaniel: Josh wrote up the Gavin Lux callup, with a scoopy nugget on his trackman stuff https://blogs.fangraphs.com/called-up-gavin-lux/

Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote up Sept callups of the NL, with AL coming soon: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/analyzing-the-national-league-september-ca…

Kiley McDaniel: and the AFL rosters have their own seasonal pumpkin spice board https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-arizona-fall-league-rosters-announced…

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

TommyTwoBags: Talk me down off my Brailyn Marquez hype high. Touching 102 from the left side?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s pretty good! Still mostly fastball at this point, but encouraging that there’s Ks/GBs/velo and he’s performing well enough to be promoted/young for High-A

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a first round type arm, but still in that 45+ waystation where we’ll sort through the borderline top 100 guys in the offseason

Kiley McDaniel: Edward Cabrera with the Marlins just jumped into 50 FV status with similar arm speed and more performance. Ryan Weathers and Simeon Woods Richardson are probably the top 45+ arms with Marquez, so a little more offseason info could help them jump to 50 FV

Kiley McDaniel: but, as is, those three and Alek Manoah are like 120 to 140 overall

Luis Robert’s Agent: Kiley, what are the chances I file a grievance vs. the chances that my client is actually too fatigued for a major league cup of coffee?

Kiley McDaniel: The “deserved a promotion” thing is akin to one of the hot button political topics where no one is ever changing their mind and a certain subset gets super heated when it directly affects them.

Until the rules change, at least 90% of the time, the player will be left down when he otherwise wouldn’t be, if the rules were more merit based. So does it really matter?

The players aren’t winning grievances and some of these guys sign extensions a year later, or right away to force a promotion. It’s just what’s happening and it won’t change until at least the next CBA, maybe even the next one after that.

Josh Nelson: Any updates on the possible International Draft?

Kiley McDaniel: Nothing concrete. Eric and I called around a lot right after that stuff broke and almost wrote something but shelved it for a bit. I think I set odds a chat or two ago, lemme go find those

Kiley McDaniel: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-7-24-19/

Kiley McDaniel: 2020: 10%
2021: 35%
2022: 90%

Kiley McDaniel: I’d still go with that

Cole Train: Do you find it odd that the media tends to fixate on where a player grew up as the most important factor in a free agent decision as opposed to things like you know money?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean it’s boring to write “he’ll go wherever the money is” so I have some sympathy for beat writers but yeah that’s the biggest factor over 90% of the time

Kiley McDaniel: or if you have an agent who is only out for himself, doesn’t tell the player about offers he doesn’t like and will only tell the player to agree when it also benefits the agent’s narrative

Kiley McDaniel: those situations are pretty easy to predict, too

Cody: Rank these Double-A catcher prospects: William Contreras, Cal Raleigh, Mario Feliciano, Tyler Stephenson

Kiley McDaniel: a great use of THE BOARD!

Kiley McDaniel: 1. Tyler Stephenson – 50 FV, 56th overall, 6th C in MILB
2. William Contreras – 50 FV, 84th overall, 10th C in MILB
3. Mario Feliciano – 45 FV, 14th-19th C tier
4. Cal Raleigh – 40+ FV, 20th-31st C tier

Kiley McDaniel: kinda amazed Stephenson isn’t on every top 100, btw. go poke a hole in that profile. performs, tools, pedigree, well-rounded, durable, consistent, two easy plus tools in power and arm

Brian: Indians RHP Carlos Vargas had a nice stretch to end his season, does he have the tools to stick in a rotation?

Kiley McDaniel: Big stuff, athletic, chance to start, but needs to make some command improvements, so we would lean to more RP now

Kiley McDaniel: would be much lesser chance if he was less athletic

Willie K.: You seem to be the high guys on Tyler Stephenson, giving him a 50FV. What sticks out to you on the positive side about him?

Kiley McDaniel: Great day to ask this question. Eric and I didn’t have a strong opinion either way when we did the top 100 shuffle a couple weeks ago then we just couldn’t poke a hole in him and I think there’s probably some prospect fatigue since he’s been famous for 4 years and hasn’t put up bonkers numbers

Kiley McDaniel: but catchers rarely give you three straight years of what you’re expecting. Go look at the lists a couple years ago, there’s reliever-level variance at that poisition

Kiley McDaniel: it’s so much more cerebral (harder to scout) and there’s so much wear and tear and concussions

VUHawkTalk: Does Vandy have a realistic shot at clearing any of Pete Crow Armstrong, Robert Hassell, Enrique Bradfield or Dax Fulton through the 2020 draft?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d set the over/under at 0.5 and I think 0 is more likely. Right now, they would all go in the top 50 on talent, PCA and Hassell are probably both 5-10 overall, Fulton more 15-20, Bradfield 25-50. Don’t know each signability yet but it’s like a 75% chance or so that you’d get none of them if the draft was today

Kiley McDaniel: Oh and we’ll also update the draft rankings soon, likely on Monday?

Kiley McDaniel: Bradfield has different accounts out there, some teams have him more 3rd or 4th but there’s enough comp to 2nd love that I bet he’d go there if the draft was today. 80 runner, has been seen a ton in summers and spring (teammates with Cory Acton/UF, Triston Casas/BOS, lots of D1 type teammates)

Kiley McDaniel: American Heritage also had Eric Hosmer, Zack Collins, Deven Marrero. The other campus (Delray) has had Jonathan India, Lucius Fox. I remember Sony Michel was the running back on the football team one year I was on campus for a game. Lotsa dudes.

Kiley McDaniel: C.J. Chatham/BOS also went to the main American Heritage

Chris: Thoughts on Julio Rodriguez and his crazy small sample size stat line from high A?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s real

Kiley McDaniel: I generally feel like you can scout the statline when a kid is both young for the league and has crazy tools

Kiley McDaniel: If he’s performing it can only be good, unless it’s tons of Ks and a .450 BABIP and an extreme hitters park to where the wRC+ is misleading

Major buzzkill: I’m a bummer. Will you make an exception to your rule and chat about all of baseball with me?

Kiley McDaniel: No exceptions!

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Recently I saw a minor leaguer being a total grumpasaurus after a strikeout, saying naughty words and banging his bat in the dugout. What does it take for a player to get marked as having makeup concerns?

Kiley McDaniel: Grumpasaurus is a solid word

Kiley McDaniel: That alone doesn’t really move the needle

Kiley McDaniel: You don’t know the context. Could have a multi-season grudge against a crappy umpire, dickhead catcher, asshole pitcher and then he gets rung up on a bad call and most of us would be a something-asaurus since we’d be so in the moment and unaware of how we appeared

Kiley McDaniel: makeup is a lot more work ethic, good teammate, etc. as opposed to hot head in tense moment

Kiley McDaniel: often bad teammate will also be hothead, so have to consider the priors, but also that your source of info is good and not coloring your opinion unfairly. could be a good makeup kid with a temper and your source just doesn’t like him or is closed-minded

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Why do so many scouts leave games early?

Kiley McDaniel: very common to walk up to the top of the stands in the bottom of the 9th after one out so you can watch from the concourse and beat the traffic

Kiley McDaniel: i know since i’m not obliged to stay the whole game, i’ll usually just leave if i saw what I came for

Kiley McDaniel: like if it’s only one player 40 FV or better on either team, it’s a starting pitcher and he’s out and i’m not in conversation with some scouts, i’ll just leave instead of torturing myself

Kiley McDaniel: but that shallow of a player pool is uncommon for the games I go to, so i usually stay in almost every situation

Kiley McDaniel: much more common with amateur games where there’s often just one notable player on the field, so it can be clear that the game is over for that one player

Kiley McDaniel: But also, if I was required to go to a game or two most days of the year and lots of them were eyewash for the last few innings and I’m relatively close to home…you can see how a passion becomes a burden when you have no control over your schedule for years and your boss doesn’t seem to care what your reports say

Kiley McDaniel: I will also say that my first 5-7 years when no one seemed to care what I thought, that I was confused why guys left early or would be rooting for a tie to break so there wouldn’t be extras, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: At that point, I was choosing every game I went to, learning a lot every day and was rooting for extras since it was a chance to get better and see more of the players I skipped social stuff specifically to go see

Kiley McDaniel: That attitude has waned a bit since as you get better at evaluating, you don’t need 100 pitches to finish the report on the starter, you basically have it done after like 25-30 and just need one more changeup

Kiley McDaniel: (and watch to see if something big changes from pitch 30 to 100)

Dan: I have to miss the winter meetings because of grad school finals. How much, if any, will this hinder my prospects of getting a baseball ops job for next season?

Kiley McDaniel: Makes it harder to interview since that’s the location where everyone is in the same place and an additional interview by the team just takes 30 minutes or so, no flights/hotel, etc.

Kiley McDaniel: So if it’s for full-time jobs or the main BO internship, it might not matter, but for stuff below that particularly it’ll be harder b/c you’re getting fewer shots to impress someone

Kiley McDaniel: But like 10 years from now you’ll probably forget about this, so don’t beat yourself up

Sammy Sooser: Is there any talk about adding an age difference column, if not to the player’s pages, then at least to THE BOARD? In addition, possibly what age/level means for future outcomes? We all know Wander Franco is super young for the Florida State League, but knowing exactly how young he is, and what profile that youth and success compares to (almost none, of course), would be fun and handy. Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: This will be coming this winter, among a bunch of other things we’ve decided to add to THE BOARD

Dan: I tried doing some analysis of the deadline trades using Craig Edwards prospect value research. How should I go about putting a $ value on a big leaguer who still has arbitration years ahead of him?

Kiley McDaniel: We’re also gonna be doing that

Kiley McDaniel: There’s some shorthand you can do, like ZiPS into dollar value, approximate arbitration and do some simple math

Kiley McDaniel: but that’s usually gonna overstate things vs. a more established player

Kiley McDaniel: since you’re projecting like 5 years of a guy being a regular at 2-3 WAR per year, but there’s a real chance of 0, non-tender, etc. not factored in

Kiley McDaniel: the problem with Madden franchise mode (well, when I played it) was that every player improved somewhat linearly, so 5 years into the future the whole league had starters 95 and up since the game doesn’t have abrupt aging/retirements

Scout: This chat should be more about me

Brent: Any insight on what happens going forward with Philly?

Kiley McDaniel: I assume you mean after their scouting director resigned yesterday

Kiley McDaniel: Appears they’ll do a wide search and try to find the right/new person. Buzz is it won’t be a quick internal promotion situation

Kiley McDaniel: The buzz on the White Sox scouting director opening is that one will likely be internal

A’s: Sorry if this has been answered before, but what goes into the ETA projection on THE BOARD? Do you plan to retrospectively look at your results and fine-tune an algorithm? I guess a specific example would be Julio Rodriguez vs George Valera – if Julio ended up about 2 levels higher than George this season, how does George’s ETA calculate out to a year earlier (2021 vs 2022)?

Kiley McDaniel: Those usually don’t get updated in season, but maybe they should be

Richard: Joey Wentz has been lights out lately. Any hope for him to regain his 50 FV one day?

Kiley McDaniel: If he’s 90-95 with three above average pitches, then he will be

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like it’s still closer to 88-92 without a plus secondary, but CB and CH have flashed plus in the past, so it’s more possible than the average pitcher with that stuff

cuvamc: Rank these recent Georgia prep arms based on the careers you think they will have long-term: Ethan Hankins, Daniel Espino, Kumar Rocker, Emerson Hancock.

Kiley McDaniel: Hancock over Kumar by a hair. Espino over Hankins but close as well

Kiley McDaniel: also FV on the board would give you the same answer

Emotionally Numb Orioles Fan: Hi Kiley, can you give us an update on any of the Orioles top guys, especially those acquired in the last year? It seems like we did dodge a bullet by not winning the bidding war for Victor Victor, but I’m looking for, you know…actual positives. I know our depth and overall system have definitely improved, but…are there some future above-average regulars in the system? Any potential stars?

Kiley McDaniel: Also didn’t pay up for Yolbert Sanchez when you had the int’l pool money hammer and after everyone got a look at him, he wasn’t as good as we initially were led to believe

Kiley McDaniel: Opted to fill out the barren lower levels with lots of six figure int’l types, which was the prudent move

Kiley McDaniel: Adding Adley, having Grayson Rodriguez progress/backup his draft status, DL Hall and Mountcastle held their value, we really liked their draft overall…it’s all moving in the right direction. It was pretty barren to start and you didn’t have multiple MLB pieces that could be flipped, so it had to be mostly draft/development since J2 was going to be adding long-term lottery ticket types

Kiley McDaniel: up to the 11th-ranked system now: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Peppa Pig: I’m fifteen years old now, and having an intellectual awakening. Is it me, or does Mrs. Rabbit work literally every job in town? What kind of statement on the plight of the worker is this making to children? Can you offer us a Marxist reading of the entire Peppa Pig series and then a meta-analysis of how the character and show have been monetized for capitalist purposes? Does it mean Peppa is a hypocrit?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like I need to start watching Peppa Pig

Kiley McDaniel: and then write a bitchin’ topic sentence

cuvamc: Some of Cleveland Indians Twitter are slamming the FO for not calling up Nolan Jones to replace JRam, saying “whether he’s ready or not, he’s the best option.” Obviously this is typical of fans to react this way, but it brings up my questions: 1) Does Jones’ combo of power/patience get him to the bigs by the end of 2020? 2) Realistically if he was stupidly called up in 2019, what type of production could he muster up? Feel like it would be 35% + K rate, maybe slightly above average BB%, spotty defense at 3B, and a couple pull side HRs.

Kiley McDaniel: You’d lose a 40-man spot and I’m pretty sure you’d burn an option. Both of those could be factors this winter with a tight 40-man and if Jones take a year or two to settle in

Kiley McDaniel: Going back to the Brinson/Robert/Acuna/Bellinger etc. plate discipline questions from recent chats

Kiley McDaniel: Hitters that draw lots of walks and lots of Ks and homers tend to do worse on promotion because their approach is tied to being around late in counts, waiting for mistakes

Kiley McDaniel: obviously at higher levels, the stuff/location is better but there’s notably less mistakes

Kiley McDaniel: I read an article about this years ago, but it basically said that Juan Pierre types (contact, low pitch per plate appearance) do proportionally more of their damage against good pitchers while Adam Dunn types (power, high P/PA) do it disproportionately against poor pitchers for this reason

Kiley McDaniel: So, all things being equal, jumping that Adam Dunn type of hitter from AA to MLB means there’s a distinct chance that even a future good MLB player would be worse than his AA performance would suggest since his type of hitter finds it harder to hit the ground running in MLB, all things being equal

Kiley McDaniel: he could also be talented enough to just hit .300 with no walks/power and do a Juan Pierre thing to survive once he notices this after a few games

Kiley McDaniel: so I think you’re mostly right

Pie: You’ve mentioned that if Yordan kept up what he was doing for a couple more months, you would have ranked him in the Trade Value series. Have we reached that point yet / roughly where would he fit in?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he’s right there with Austin Meadows, Max Kepler and Jeff McNeil right at 40-45 overall? 2.5 to 3.0 WAR true talent guy with lots of control left.

Yordan is hitting more now, but will probably age quickly and has no margin for error, so its more now-vs.-future value. In general, clubs prefer the now with this type of player and Meadows has an injury history. So maybe scoot both of those guys up to the 34-45 range?

Kiley McDaniel: Also, I will write on this topic before next July

Fools gold: 2016 Dodgers draft of Gavin Lux, Will Smith, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin going down as one of the best class ever for Dodgers?

Kiley McDaniel: pretty strong stuff, I’d say

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not Trout+Grichuk+Richards+Corbin+Skaggs, but it might be next in the recent era?

Logan: My comments are pending moderation.  I demand moderation!

Kiley McDaniel: I will find moderation in my pursuit to moderate you

Lil pop: Which Yankees SS prospect is a better defender, Oswald peraza or Alexander Vargas? Also chances Yankees sign yiddi cappe after losing Jhon diaz to the rays?

Kiley McDaniel: Vargas just moved up today, he’s getting rave reviews. Less physical Ronny Mauricio, maybe?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t bet on Cappe/NYY, but you never know

RVA_Empire: Odd question(s) – but how does healthcare work for minor leaguers? If someone has TJ and is then cut from the team, does the team still have to pay for rehab, etc.?

Kiley McDaniel: I believe they cut a check to the player to cover the rest of the injury rehab of the injury that happened on their watch

Danny: Vargas and Medina were already 45s right? They are just higher within the 45 tier right?

Kiley McDaniel: Vargas was 40+, Medina was moved down to 40 earlier this year

Mike: In a last chat last week, Eric opined that CJ Abrams is a better fantasy prospect than Andrew Vaughn but didn’t elaborate as to why (I asked). It caught me off guard because it was the first time I’ve read someone say that – around draft time, Vaughn was the top consensus fantasy prospect in the class with Rutschman usually at 2. Are people a little concerned about Vaughn’s decent but not exactly overwhelming pro debut?

Kiley McDaniel: We don’t do fantasy stuff so we didn’t even know someone was consensus anything

Kiley McDaniel: Vaughn is limited and has to rake to have value and not be CJ Cron

Kiley McDaniel: Abrams is doing even better than we expected and can succeed all kinds of ways

John: Just curious, why the drop for Winn? While his season as a whole hasn’t been stellar, he had seemingly been pitching better the last several weeks.

Kiley McDaniel: Compare him to the other top HS arms in that class by stuff/performance. He fits with the 45+ types (SWR, Weathers) more than the 50’s (Liberatore, Grayson Rod)

Thomas: Hey! New to Fan Graphs here. A friend and I came across stat cast data about how Matt Chapman of the A’s plays the furthest back in the league at 3rd base (~10 ft)  becuase of his strong arm and this gives him more range which in turn lessens the need for range at SS. We deduced that this could have saved the club big money when determining their requirement for defense in their SS and possibly allowed them to sign one with a better bat and weaker defense. Do you think there’s any truth in our theory or are we crazy?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds true

Kiley McDaniel: Chapman has an 80 arm and Marcus Semien was seen as a limited defensive SS when they acquired him

Kiley McDaniel: he’s better now

Luke Hochevar: M. Escort had tremendous production this year in the DSL, is it too early to get hyped?

Kiley McDaniel: I assume you mean Maikol Escotto of NYY? We’ve been pretty aggressive with him this year. Martin Prado-ish.

J: How on earth do you keep track of all these prospects in your head? I know it’s your job but it seems unbelievably difficult merely to remember names. Do you know most guys on the BOARD offhand or do you need to refresh yourself on the lower FV guys?

Kiley McDaniel: the Arizona-based org, non-bonus international guys are my weakest spot but I know all the 45s and up off the top of my head, most of the other guys on THE BOARD

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve probably seen almost every notable domestic HS player the last 8 years or so at least once due to the showcase circuit, so that helps a lot with a baseline for guys I don’t see as much in the minors

Garm: If memory serves, didn’t Luis Robert negotiate the ability to stay in Cuba an extra year or something for tax reasons, i.e., so he could save money? If players are going to do that, how am I supposed to feel bad for them when owners manipulate service time? Everyone wants to get ahead and they are just using the tools of the system in place to do so. But won’t someone think of the poor millionaires!

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, I believe his deal was to play only in the DSL (levels below where he belonged) so his bonus wouldn’t get taxed. So it’s a solid point that this held him back some, but it was also only 28 games.

Kiley McDaniel: So Robert is a rare case where the player got over on the team (signed right before the int’l bonuses were capped, didn’t get taxed on $26M) before the team has a chance to hold him back a bit

Kiley McDaniel: But that is the only instance I can think of other than a high draft pick doing the GCL/FSL after signing to stay in FL and avoid taxation

Kiley McDaniel: Most J2 players get this same thing, but at 16, they shouldn’t be above the DSL, so it isn’t seen as manipulation. Robert probably should’ve gone straight to Low-A or High-A, so this aspect was negotiated

Kiley McDaniel: So while you point is accurate, your general POV is still kinda gross for a number of reasons

Sammy Sooser: The only reason people keep asking you to rank players already on THE BOARD is because of the shoddy work you and Eric did. I mean, really? No Tebow?

Kiley McDaniel: I think this is a sign to end things

Chat Mapman: Just wanted to say that you and Eric really hit the nail on the head with Darwinzon Hernandez in your profile of him.

Kiley McDaniel: Always time for a compliment!

Jacob: Do you think Drew Waters and/or Christian Pache get called up after the MILB playoffs?

Kiley McDaniel: 2% chance? It would be 0% but I guess the whole team could get injured?

NoNicknameYet: Would you consider yourself more of an ass hole or an ass hat?

Kiley McDaniel: don’t wear hats that much so probably A

JUAN SOTO: JUAN. SOTO.

NoNicknameYet: I HAVE NO FOLLOW UP QUESTIONS

First rule of Kiley chat?: We don’t talk about Kiley chat.

Second rule of Kiley chat?

M.A.T.T. D.A.M.O.N.

Kiley McDaniel: see you guys next week

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is asleep