Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 7/7/15

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here and he’s slightly sunburned from some day HS tourney games yesterday

Comment From Bob Benson
Last week in his chat, Cameron mentioned that you two had discussed Hunter Renfroe and that you would be downgrading his prospect status. Can you elaborate on why?

Kiley McDaniel: There were some contact/approach concerns on Renfroe from back in his amateur days, but he hit so you couldn’t really factor that into his prospect status as much, unless you were really convicted it wouldn’t work at higher levels, which most scouts couldn’t do because all the tools are there.He had a yellow flag of a tough half-season at AA last year that we needed to pay attention to this year and he hasn’t really improved. Now those concerns are real and that Jeff Francoeur comp I got seems more real, too.

Comment From Nick C
Are the Mets in on any other international free agents not named Gimenez or Gregory Guerrero? I know they have little money left over after trade.

Kiley McDaniel: Most prospects under 500K don’t have a high profile, so I wouldn’t expect to hear much more. That said, if you look at the J2 boardhttp://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

the Mets did the best of any team at getting two high end players and staying under their pool, with the Braves just behind them. That’s the best you can ask for among the 20+ teams staying under their pool. You have permission to be happy about this.

Comment From Stanatee the Manatee
I live near a couple Frontier League teams. How much do MLB front offices scout/keep an eye on independent minor leagues like that one?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t scout much, most teams will keep tabs on statistical outliers to possibly scout at some point

Comment From GPT
Any updates on Eddy Julio Martinez? Is it still between the Dodgers and Giants?

Kiley McDaniel: No update since my last report, but my guess is the Giants were in for one of the high end J2 guys, so with Lucius Fox in the fold, I’m not sure they’re willing to spend even more on another, but that’s just a guess.

Comment From Thomas
Do you have a mid-season top-50/100 prospect list coming out? ETA?

Kiley McDaniel: I will, but it’ll be a few more weeks. Much more than just a list, so hopefully you’ll find it worth the wait.

Comment From John Hart
Did I hire the best scouting department in baseball?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s impossible to know, so just tell yourself yes

Comment From That one scout….
Saw one scout, granted only one, said that he thinks Lara has a great chance at sticking at short. Preseason I know you said he’s definitely a third baseman, but has that changed at all?

Kiley McDaniel: I said 3B eventually but SS for now, lost weight and got a little quicker. If you think he’s going to be penciled in at SS in his first big league game, you’re in a small minority at this point.

Comment From Michael
Quick takeaways from your viewing of Moncada? Too early to give an approximate FV?

Kiley McDaniel: Had some technical issues but I’m back now

Kiley McDaniel: Tweeted about it here https://twitter.com/kileymc…

Kiley McDaniel: Only a one game look, but looked like advertised to me. Some technical stuff to clean up defensively, but made all the plays and the tools were there. Hit the ball hard from both sides, was aware of situations, body looked live, etc. Nothing negative other than normal A-Ball stuff.It’s a small sample, but I’m inclined to think 18 months with no games means the adjustment would be tough, but he’s trending back up now. I’ll get another look later to confirm this and check with scouts that are seeing him now to make sure I didn’t just catch him on a good day.

Comment From Blue Jays bullpen
Does Barreto stick at short?

Kiley McDaniel: Still think no long-term, but he’s okay there if you need him to play there.

Comment From Candy LaChance
Bradley Zimmer has been killing it in the Carolina League, but also striking out 23% of the time. Is this something that could keep him at A+ all year? A red flag about his future? Or not a big deal given everything else he’s doing right?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a tall guy and a late-count type hitter, so K’s will always be higher than his hitting skills would suggest

Kiley McDaniel: I will complement you guys for your questions this week acknowledging what I’ve already written about the guy and asking what’s changed. This relationship may work after all.

Comment From Nathan
I have a question regarding Josh Bell. He’s been very impressive in AA this year, sporting both a K and BB of 10.6% while hitting .312. This is all very encouraging, but the power, a big part of his prospect profile, just hasn’t shown up. He has just 3 HRs over the first half of the season. Is this cause for concern, or is the expectation that the power will play eventually? I know he has solid raw power, but when will it start to show up in games? Is there any way to predict whether this will actually happen or not? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: For some guys, the power takes a little time to show up at the upper levels when the pitching is better. Bell is a 55 raw power guy for me and some scouts don’t think the hitting tools are very loud, so they kinda guessed the power may take a little time to show up. Lower expectation to solid everyday guy, especially given the 1B fit in the PIT system. I would’ve told you that preseason, too.

Comment From GPT
How would you compare Lucius Fox and Jalen Miller?

Kiley McDaniel: Fox is a switch hitter and I like the bat a little more, power is comparable. Miller is a 50-55 runner that can probably play short but is a polished defensive type and Fox is a 65-70 runner that has the tools to play SS, but has some work to do, so he could end up playing 2B or CF. I’d take Fox, but it isn’t a huge gap and I think that illustrates the inflation from draft to July 2 given age/polish of 18 vs. 16, which is what I think you were implying with the question.

Comment From Dan
Updated thoughts on two youngish under-the-radar guys on Altoona’s roster, Max Moroff and Adam Frazier? Be curious if you think either could be league average regulars/supersubs with their profiles.

Kiley McDaniel: Saw them both last year. Frazier is a not-a-lot-of-tools guy that can play shortstop and make some contact but very little else, so you’re hoping for a utility guy. Moroff has more tools, but low-end everyday at best and can’t play SS so you’re hoping for Scooter Gennett.

Comment From Chris
No need to rush Zach Davies as a 22 yo (who looks 17) in AAA, right? He wouldn’t, currently, constitute an upgrade from Terrible Chris Tillman?

Kiley McDaniel: He very well may be better. I really liked Davies coming into this year as a command #4 starter with a plus changeup. More goes into the decision than just which one is slightly better right now, though.

Comment From Ice Cream Sandwich
Don’t make fun of me for this, but can Jesus Montero still be an impact bat? His stats this season in Triple-A are just silly.

Kiley McDaniel: 30% above league average in a hitter friendly league as a 25 year old Triple-A DH isn’t silly. That’s not that far ahead of “required production to stay on the field,” and the more extreme environment raises questions beyond the normal ones of if this translates to the big leagues.

Comment From Steve
Jeff Hoffman is striking out a few more batters lately but the results still aren’t that great. Is it more of the same since you last saw him? How can a guy who throws that hard not strike anyone out?

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote about this in the last chat or the one before. TOR has changed his delivery to be more upright, tall-and-fall and crossfire. He also isn’t throwing his best curveball, saving the yakker for once or twice a game. He isn’t trying to get strikeouts. Not sure if this is the plan going forward or just to get clear of the surgery, then turn it up a notch. The mechanics look like Aaron Sanchez, so I’m thinking that part isn’t temporary.

Comment From Nattylight
Who turns out to be the better player for the Nats Trea Turner or Joe Ross?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve still got Turner ahead by a decent margin

Comment From Marlins Man
How much longer until Tyler Kolek is called a bust?

Kiley McDaniel: More than 12 months, that’s for sure.

Comment From Guest
Is Luke Weaver an eventual #3 arm?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the best case scenario

Comment From KD
whats the logic in the blue jays trading for slot space to reduce their intl penalty to an absence of one year as opposed to two when the system is likely to change after next year anyways?

Kiley McDaniel: The penalty of going over will carry over into the draft with loss of draft picks for as long as you’d be in the penalty

Comment From Andrew
Still think Shipley can be a solid number 2? His stats are down, but it was really just a rough patch that he rebounded from lately, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Stuff has been inconsistent this year, still relatively new to pitching. I’m going to go see him in a bit to see if he’s improved

Comment From Chris
Have you spoken to anyone who recently saw Chance Sisco? Just from internettin’ it seems he is dreadful defensively but he is young and you indicated in the prospect list that is was more a lack of experience than athletic ability. Any progress albeit the missed month with an injury?

Kiley McDaniel: Dreadful is really overstating it. He’s still new to the position and should be able to stick, but probably won’t be a defensive standout. The bat is the thing to get on board with and it’s special.

Comment From Mike
Please tell me you are live-blogging from Anderson Espinoza’s start @ GCL Rays…

Kiley McDaniel: Will be back in Florida in a few weeks and he’s near the top of my list to track down

Comment From Asking For a Friend
Has Lance McCullers suddenly learned command/control or is his sub-2 BB/9 in MLB bound to regress? Do you see him as a starter LT?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s always shown it in flashes and I think there’s a bit of Carson Fulmer here: an elite arm that always has just enough command to get by with the stuff to always get K’s. I wrote for ESPN multiple times when McCullers was in HS that he made huge strides during his senior year when he was getting feedback about command and his changeup from scouts. Never doubted he could make adjustments, just wasn’t sure it would fit best in a rotation or late in the game. I guess we still don’t really know, but he’s exceeded almost everyone’s expectations so far.

Comment From Pale Hose
When a player gets promoted is it ok to assume current fv is moving closer to future fv?

Kiley McDaniel: One of the things that will be included in the updated list later this month is the introduction of Present Value (PV), which I included in the sortable draft board as well. So, if you’re saying PV rises as a prospect gets promoted, yes that’s generally correct.

Comment From dom
I will never not ask about Refsynder’s defense

Kiley McDaniel: Good to hear

Comment From Pale Hose
Any insight into how the DiPoto/Sciosia relationship was atypical?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think it was atypical of a strong-minded, old-school manager. There have been a few of those in the past that didn’t get along with the more progressive type GM. The difference is that the two sides usually knew who has in control and acted accordingly. Arte Moreno didn’t do a good job of making it clear who was in charge. Also, casting the long-time MLB veteran as the stats nerd coming to ruin Sciosia’s sacred game is a new twist.

Comment From bob
any top prospects to watch in the short season leagues?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of ’em!

Comment From dom
Does baseball not allow trading draft picks so teams can’t destroy themselves like they do in the NBA?

Kiley McDaniel: Nothing strategic, just tradition and not rocking the boat. Could change in the next CBA, though. The crazy long and negative track record of unintended consequences from rule changes in the July 2 and draft markets could be mitigated some if the teams are able to move around picks and avoid problems created from being locked in place. The things MLB doesn’t like (verbal deals in both markets and other shenanigans) come from teams being creative when they have limited options. So, give them more options and less weird things happen. It also allows smart teams to do more smart things, though not every team is in favor of that.

Comment From Brett
Who is Houston’s #1 prospect in the system now? Leaning towards Brett Phillips but AJ Reed is absolutely destroying the ball in Lancaster.

Kiley McDaniel: When in doubt, take the up-the-middle guy

Comment From Bartolowandaway
I was wondering about the International 16 year olds. What is the process for them after they sign? Are they put right into the DSL?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope, sign, workout at the complex, then playing in instructs over the fall, play in spring training and extended spring in the next spring, then the DSL the summer after. The J2 kids this year all sign 2016 contracts so they can’t play this summer, as a way for the team to get an extra year of control for 40-man decisions in exchange for playing only simulated games for a few months when they’re super raw.

Comment From Revision
What SPF did you use? Below 25 is worthless…

Kiley McDaniel: I normally go with the 125

Comment From Brandon
Worried about Amed Rosario’s power?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s really good at almost everything, so not worried about anything related to him right now.

Comment From Chet Steadman
Will Billy McKinney ever become a regular starting RF/LF in the majors? Or does his lack of power and lack of CF ability limit him?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve always been on the low end for McKinney. Power plays slightly below average in games and he’s LF only. I didn’t love that he barred his lead arm back in HS, but he’s proven he can make it work.

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of questions asking me to comment on other outlet’s lists. If you haven’t noticed, I don’t do that.

Comment From MW
If someone was trying to get into scouting which level would you advise them to go watch and write about? Since minor leaguers have already been drafted and identified by MLB would it be more worthwhile to focus on the amateur level?

Kiley McDaniel: Whatever is the easiest for you to get to most often. Amateur is harder than pro, especially if you’re just going during the spring and not to the summer showcases/college leagues. The key is to get to a game every day, write what you see and find some people that can give you pointers that know what they’re talking about. Don’t worry about the level, worry about the reps.

Comment From Guest
Are you still bullish on Colin Moran?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think I ever was

Comment From Hussein
BA and BP have their lists out. When should we expect yours?

Kiley McDaniel: If you haven’t noticed, I don’t really follow the conventions other stick to as to when lists come out, the length or format of them, etc.

Comment From Ace
Why don’t the Orioles take more of an interest in international free agents? Is it simply because they’re cheap?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a reason and that’s not it

Comment From Dave
Heading to the Cape soon? We need a Kiley/Frankie pod, er, programme.

Kiley McDaniel: Probably not doing the Cape this summer. Maybe Frankie and I could stitch our hours of phone calls together into a pod, leaving out the curse words and industry gossip

Kiley McDaniel: Although, at that point, it would be about 10 minutes of baseball conversation

Comment From I am the Walrus
International prospect, where do you rank Cuba OF Eddie Julie Martinez? Where do you think he would have gone in MLB amateur draft if he was eligible.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s ranked on this board, then click the tab to see the draft board and you can see the answer to both questions http://www.fangraphs.com/sc…

Comment From Charlie
Thoughts on what the braves did in selling prospects for international $$$’s?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t characterize it that way. They had to trade for money to avoid going over and trading mid to low level prospects allowed them to sign another 7 figure July 2 guy. That’s the way smart teams turn ok assets into a good one while leaving themselves another chance to go way over in another year

Comment From Guest
What does your October-January day to day consist of?

Kiley McDaniel: Writing prospect lists, making phone calls. More Nov-Jan since October is instructs, fall league and Jupiter

Comment From Teddy
Kiley, any news on Ruddy Giron of the Padres? I can barely find anything on him and it looks like he’s having a breakout year at Ft. Wayne

Kiley McDaniel: Addressed him in a couple previous chats. Solid prospect, potential everyday guy but lower end for now and a long way off. Chance to stick at shors, some feel for contact and some pop. Probably 40 FV but maaaaybe 45 FV after I make more calls on him.

Kiley McDaniel: I think I have to talk to that Canadian guy now so see you next week people