Kyle Tucker: The Man and His Dream Contract

The Astros currently rank third in the American League in runs scored — not an uncommon sight for a franchise that has only been outscored by the Dodgers and Red Sox over the last decade. But they’ve done it with a lineup with some pretty big holes, with half of their eight players with at least 300 plate appearances this season posting an OBP under .300. The team’s offense has been driven this year mainly by four players: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Chas McCormick, with an assist from Yainer Diaz. A year ago, Houston signed Alvarez to a six-year, $115 million contract extension that ensured he would remain in town until the end of the 2028 season. Tucker, though, does not have a long-term deal and is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2025 season. What would a possible deal look like?

There’s certainly interest from the Astros’ side, as there ought to be. The team has discussed an extension with Tucker in the past, though there are no active talks right now. But general manager Dana Brown did use his weekly radio spot in part to discuss making Tucker an “Astro for life,” so some kind of deal coming together is hardly implausible.

Based on franchise history, being one of Houston’s stars doesn’t necessarily grant a ton of leverage when it comes to landing big contract extensions. Jose Altuve signed a seven-year, $163.5 million deal before the 2018 season, but that remains the largest contract in team history. The Astros didn’t participate in any bidding wars for previous stars like George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Gerrit Cole, confident in their farm system replacing the lost talent. And that confidence has not been misplaced, as the franchise has a good record graduating minor league prospects to the majors. Even Justin Verlander’s sudden, stunning return a couple of weeks ago involved the Mets paying the majority of his remaining salary.

Tucker has certainly earned a big payday. Since grabbing the a full-time spot in the lineup in 2020, he’s hit .280/.351/.516 with a wRC+ of 137. That’s good enough to rank fifth in baseball among outfielder in WAR, at 15.1, behind only Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, and Ronald Acuña Jr. This year, Tucker’s on track to hit the five-WAR mark for the first time. He’s even showed growth as a hitter, which ought to serve him well as he ages; he’s already a single walk from matching his career high and has simultaneously cut a third of his strikeouts from his rookie season.

Let’s see what mean ol’ Grandpa ZiPS thinks:

In my chat last week, I mentioned ZiPS suggesting nine years and $220 million as a reasonable extension for Tucker, but that was also from the start of the season. If he were a free agent, this projection suggests a nine-year, $284 million extension (or $265 million over eight years). Tucker obviously is not a free agent, and his next two years — the most likely best seasons remaining in his career — will be under team control. ZiPS expects the difference between what he would get in free agency the next two years versus what he’s likely to get in arbitration as about $40 million, taking it to a nine-year, $244 million deal. Hurting Tucker’s chances of hitting the $300 million threshold is the simple fact that while he’s not as old as Judge was when he hit free agency, he’s also going to be 29 at the start of his new contract, not a mid-20s phenom like Soto or Manny Machado.

Would the Astros do that deal? I’m not sure, since we’re talking an $80 million bump over their largest deal to date, and that’s way more years than the team is typically comfortable with. A six-year deal comes out at $176 million, in the same ballpark as Altuve’s deal (which runs out after 2024). It’s more than Alvarez got, but in that case, the team was able to lock up a deal before the slugger got to arbitration and so had considerably more leverage.

But in this case, I’m not positive that the Astros wouldn’t come to such a deal, either, especially if we’re talking six or seven years. They’ve let players walk before, but Tucker’s free agency would come a year after Altuve and Bregman reach the end of their deals; even if they stay with the organization, their next contracts will probably cover their declines (almost certainly for the former). That’s an awful lot of offensive production to replace quickly. When Springer was in his arbitration years, the Astros knew Alvarez and Tucker were coming; I don’t see anyone in the organization right now that fits that role. I think there’s a real chance that when Brown expressed an interest in keeping Tucker on the team for the long term, it was more than the usual fan-friendly soundbites that every public-facing front office member knows how to do by heart.

Whatever happens, the Astros have an elite corner outfielder in Tucker, and he’ll get paid a phenomenally large number of dollars for his abilities soon. Whether Jim Crane is paying it, we’ll have to wait awhile to find out.