Let’s Sign Some Contracts! 2025 Edition

Spending your own money is fun, but spending someone else’s money is even better! When it comes to extending major league contracts, unless you’re a billionaire, or a millionaire with a lot of millionaire business partners, you pretty much have to live vicariously through those other parties. Keeping talent wearing your uniform, of course, has more utility than a simple splendiferous shopping spree, since the players you want to retain are unlikely to get less expensive when they hit free agency. The Toronto Blue Jays did their own impressive feat of cash-splashing last month, when they gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. half a billion bucks or about $700 million puckaroos, maplebacks, or whatever it is that Canadians call their money. Yes, comments section, I’m aware they’re dollars.

For this year’s edition, I’ve chosen seven players to sign to long-term deals with their current clubs, and in all seven cases, I believe an extension would be mutually beneficial for both the player and his respective team. I’ve included the up-to-date ZiPS projections for each player, as well as the contract that ZiPS thinks each player should get, though that doesn’t necessarily mean that I think the player will end up with that figure or even sign an extension.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers – Seven years, $240 million

After his unanimous selection as the AL Cy Young winner last season, Tarik Skubal isn’t doing anything in 2025 that would make him less expensive on a long-term deal. When I ran ZiPS late last summer, Skubal just barely beat out Logan Webb for the most rest-of-career projected WAR among active starting pitchers, and he has maintained a very slight edge since. The AL Central is just ripe for some team to dominate the rest, and even if the Tigers don’t spend like they did during the Mike Ilitch years, they don’t need to dish out $300 million a year to be the big dog in this division. Skubal gives Detroit a weapon that no other AL Central team can match, and at this point, he’s probably no more of an injury risk than is any other pitcher. Outside of Javier Báez, the Tigers have very little guaranteed money on the books (Colt Keith’s deal wouldn’t even hamstring the Pirates or A’s), and if they’re looking going to spend to keep one player on the team long term, who else could it be?

Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers – Nine years, $239 million

ZiPS was famously in love with Wyatt Langford coming into 2024, projecting him for 2.6 WAR just a few months after he was drafted out of Florida. The projection looked cringe early on as Langford struggled, but after returning from the hamstring injury that cost him most of May, he went on a tear, hitting .261/.334/.452 for a 122 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR the rest of the way. He finished the year off with a flourish, hitting eight homers and putting up nearly a 1.000 OPS in September. Langford has a 145 wRC+ this season and is already at the 1.0-WAR mark, and with nearly two years until he hits even salary arbitration, this is the best time for he and the Rangers to come to a deal that buys out some of his free agent years. He is projected to be the Rangers’ most valuable player in the long term, and they have demonstrated a willingness to spend top dollar on their best guys.

Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs – Eight years, $203 million

ZiPS was notoriously grumpy about Kyle Tucker back in March, but it’s coming around on him fast, and the gap between ZiPS and Steamer from the preseason has narrowed by two-thirds. No, the Cubs aren’t going to be able to sign him for $203 million; if he were willing to sign for that amount of money, I suspect the congratulatory press conference announcing his signing would have been months ago. But there is a dollar amount that will do the trick, and while that figure almost certainly won’t be as high as what Guerrero Jr. signed for, the fact that so few impact bats will hit free agency over the next few years gives Tucker a great deal of leverage. Now that Guerrero’s off the market, ZiPS projects Tucker to have the best 2026-2028 wRC+ of any player who is set to enter free agency after either this season or next. The second-best outfielder is Cubs teammate Seiya Suzuki, who has a 10-point shortfall compared to Tucker, not to mention that Suzuki is a much worse defender.

MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals – Six years, $123 million

The Nationals aren’t contenders yet, but when you look at their offensive core, you see the fuzzy edges of a lineup that will get Washington back to playing October baseball. While the rotation has actually been surprisingly solid so far this season, pitchers like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker are overperforming their peripheral numbers, and we can’t bank on either of them to be a true ace. MacKenzie Gore, on the other hand, has peripherals that are even better than his excellent early-season stats — and he currently leads the league in strikeouts. That’s no fluke, either, as hitters simply aren’t making much contact against the former first-rounder. Gore’s 66.3% contact rate, if maintained, would be the 11th-best number among ERA qualifiers over the last decade, just behind former teammate Patrick Cor… OK, let’s stop that sentence before it gets dark. That Gore has two more years of cost control remaining gives the Nats an opportunity to absorb some risk on the injury front in order to get a better deal for a pitcher who looks like he’ll get rather expensive in a couple of years.

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners – Six years, $121 million

To paraphrase Saint Augustine of Hippo: Jerry Dipoto, give me a Logan Gilbert contract extension, but not yet. You should probably never sign a pitcher who is currently on the IL with a flexor strain to big deal, so unlike the other extensions here, I wouldn’t suggest that the Mariners do this tomorrow. But if Gilbert comes back without problems or red flags, Seattle should sign him long term, especially with pitchers like George Kirby and Bryan Woo farther away for free agency and Luis Castillo not the talent he was as few years ago. ZiPS projects Gilbert to rank 10th among pitchers in five-year WAR, and of the others in the top 10, only Gilbert, Skubal, and Webb are eligible for free agency within the next three years. ZiPS prices Gilbert a bit lower than Gore, simply because the former is older and comes with a little less upside.

Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians – Six years, $111 million

Steven Kwan is not a traditional corner outfielder, but even with his lack of power, he’s blossomed into an All-Star left fielder. Kwan is one of the most valuable contact hitters in baseball, and he makes the most of his elite contact ability by not falling into what I call the David Fletcher trap: Being so good at making contact that you hit a lot of pitches that you shouldn’t swing at. On the contrary, Kwan is a rather disciplined hitter for someone with his bat-to-ball skills; his career walk and chase rates are better than the league average. He plays solid defense in left field and gets as much out of his middling speed as is possible. The Guardians don’t like signing big deals, but José Ramírez isn’t impervious to the effects of aging, and the Guardians will have serious issues if they have to replace the production of both J-Ram and Kwan at the same time.

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros – Six years, $105 million

Is Hunter Brown an ace now? I get asked that question in my chats three or four times a week now, and for the most part, I’ve avoided answering it because I knew that this piece was coming. So the answer is: Yes, yes he is. We have yet to see him carry a workload of 180-200 innings in a season, but at the moment, he’s on track to get there this year. And besides, volume is becoming less and less a part of an ace’s job description. Over the last calendar year, Brown ranks sixth in baseball with 5.1 WAR. During that span, he’s totaled 185 2/3 innings in 30 starts and posted a 16-6 record with a 2.28 ERA and a 2.89 FIP. Brown makes less than a million this year, and he’s still a long way away from fabulous riches. Buying out a few of his free agency years could be a good idea for both Brown and the Astros.