Looking for Bryant-Like Service-Time Manipulations in 2016

A year ago, Kris Bryant’s failure to make the Cubs Opening Day roster made a good deal of news because (a) Bryant, 23, had dominated the minors and was clearly ready for the majors, and (b) by holding him down for a couple weeks, the Cubs prevented Bryant from recording a full year of service time in 2015, which also prevented him from recording the necessary six years of service time for free agency before the end of the 2021 season. Bryant was the number-one prospect in baseball at the time, but he was not the only player kept in the minor leagues at least in part due to service time considerations. Carlos Correa, Maikel Franco, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Rodon, Addison Russell, and Noah Syndergaard all spent time in the minors last year before succeeding in the big leagues. There has been little uproar this year regarding service time shenanigans. While there is no Bryant-like player, the potential for some service-time manipulation is still there.

To identify players who are ripe for manipulation it’s best to begin with the very best prospects. Of the players mentioned above, six of seven appeared among Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list last year; only Franco appeared outside the top 20, down at 38 overall. Taking a look at Baseball America’s top 20 prospects this season, we can get a good start in identifying players.

Let’s eliminate the players who started the year in the majors.

These players are part of the reason why there is no Bryant-like player this season. Buxton and Seager are the top two prospects in baseball, and they already have major-league service time due to call-ups from last season. Buxton has been sent back down, but it seems highly unlikely that it has anything to do with his service time; he would need to remain in the minors until nearly September for the Twins to gain another year of team control

The next group we can safely eliminate are the guys who have a great deal of potential, but are still a ways off from the majors.

While it is possible that a few guys on this list, like Benitendi and Swanson, could force their way into the majors at some point, this is a young group of players who were not ready to make the jump to the majors.

The next group of players features guys who are getting closer to the majors, and could see MLB time this year, but for whom more minor-league development also seems reasonable.

Orlando Arcia and J.P. Crawford might be better than the players ahead of them in the majors right now — Crawford, in particular. While Triple-A time is not a prerequisite to earn the call to the big leagues, the 21-year-olds had not seen any time in Triple-A before 2016 and they are not sufficiently impressive upgrades to render their non-contending teams into contenders. A.J. Reed could probably hold his own with the bat and be of some service to the Astros either at first base or designated hitter. That said, Tyler White might be his equal right now with the bat, and the team wants to give Evan Gattis a shot at designated hitter. It might not be the best baseball decision, but it is a common one not necessarily related to service time.
Next, we have pitchers who are just waiting for an injury or having their innings preserved.

Urias could probably be pitching in the big leagues right now, and given the Dodgers injury troubles, they could probably use him. However, he has only pitched around 80 innings per year over the last two seasons, and if the team feels he can be asset at the end of the season, he could be better served having his innings monitored in the minors. Giolito should be up once one of the Nationals pitchers go down or become ineffective, the latter scenario perhaps less likely now given Tanner Roark’s recent amazing outing. The Pirates have some struggling starters and Tyler Glasnow could serve an improvement right now. Ryan Vogelsong is currently in the sixth spot out of the bullpen, but it would seem only a matter of time before Glasnow is called up to help Pittsburgh. Alex Reyes is current serving a suspension for testing positive for marijuana. He’s got 20 games to go, although the suspension would end if he were placed on the 40-man roster. He likely would not be the first choice should a starter go down, but his time will likely come later in the year.

That leaves just three players:

Blake Snell is the obvious candidate. He and the Tampa Bay Rays had talks in Spring Training about a contract extension that likely would have placed him in the Opening Day rotation. He looks ready for MLB action, having recorded his major-league debut on the first day he could do so without accruing a full year of service this season. The team has gone with essentially a four-man rotation with only Erasmo Ramirez making a start after the Rays’ top four, and he has spent most of this season in the bullpen. While Snell was sent back down immediately following his start — thus dampening potential criticism — if the Rays call him up within 20 days of his demotion, Snell will receive service time for his recent time in the minors. A cursory glance at the schedule makes it seem the Rays will need another fifth starter on May 10, which would land within that 20-day window. It’s hard to believe that service-time considerations were not paramount in Snell’s delay in reaching the majors.

Joey Gallo might represent an upgrade over Mitch Moreland or potentially Prince Fielder, but when he came up to the majors last year, his problems with strikeouts made him a liability. At some point, he is going to have to play in the majors to see if he can make more consistent contact at the big-league level. He’s still just 22, and does have some development time if he needs it. If the Rangers are thinking about his service time, keeping him down until the middle of June will ensure they get that extra year. Given his struggles last season, it’s hard to determine if his time in Triple-A is due to service time or skills and personnel. An injury for the Rangers in the next month could be revealing.

The final player to discuss is Trea Turner. After getting 44 plate appearances in the majors last year, there is a very reasonable argument to make that Turner is the best shortstop the Nationals have available. Danny Espinosa is a poor hitter producing worse results currently than even his meager preseason projections called for. While Turner might be more second baseman than shortstop, the same could be said of Espinosa. Turner’s bat should be pretty close to average, and he is already tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A. At this point it’s hard to see why he’s still in minors when he presents a real upgrade to a contending team. Of course, if he stays down for another month, the Nationals will secure a seventh year of service time, keeping him through the 2022 season before free agency.

There were not any service-time cases as clear as Kris Bryant’s last season — and it’s difficult to conceive of a scenario in which there’d be any that were more clear in the future. However, there are still service-time games occurring as teams walk the line between fielding the best product, contending, rebuilding, and getting a precious free-agent season for keeping players down for just a few more weeks. This season, it would appear that Blake Snell and Trea Turner are the two players most disadvantaged by the system.