Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 11/13/18

Meg Rowley: Hi all– allow me one moment to respond to a Very Pressing Email.

Meg Rowley: Ok, all set! Welcome to the chat. Let’s see what nonsense we can get up to today.

Lunar verLander: …you’re not REALLY out of coffee, are you? That’d be some kind of nightmare-ish hellscape…

Meg Rowley: No, thank goodness. I made more.

Billy: Any chance Paxton rumors / action heats up again soon? Or does all the “dust” need to settle for Ms FO makes any more moves (assuming they’re still around)?

Meg Rowley: I would imagine that it might delay for a day or two, but MLB has announced an investigation, and it seems almost certain their trade activity won’t wait for that to conclude.

Meg Rowley: I would think that them getting the package they want has more to do with the delay. They really need to nail this one.

Billy: Prediction on first nine figure contract signed of the off season?

Meg Rowley: I think based on absolutely nothing, but I’d expect Machado to go before Harper.

Meg Rowley: The positional stuff is a complication but he’s a little more straightforward in some ways than Harper.

Meg Rowley: Now watch Harper sign somewhere while we’re chatting.

john j: Why do I have the feeling the M’s scandal doesn’t end well for anyone ?

Meg Rowley: It’s an ugly situation no matter what. MLB investigating it seems likely to move some of it out of the public eye, but it’s not great.

Meg Rowley: I don’t know the specifics of what happened beyond what’s been reported and some sourced bits and bobs. I don’t have trouble believing, in general terms, that working in baseball means witnessing behavior that we’d all find problematic. I find the Mariners continued categorical denials interesting, because they don’t leave much wiggle room. I also find it hard to believe you’d blow up your professional life if there was nothing to it. I imagine there are further details to come.

Bread Gardner: Let’s pretend we live in a fantasy world where the Mets are run like the Yankees: smartly. What’s their basic off-season plan? I think, at this point, they kind of have to sell high on literally everything and stock up for a run at 2023.

Meg Rowley: I guess it depends on what you think of the pitching. They held on to it for a reason. They also played a lot of old, not very good players last year. I think a smartly run team sorts the old guy thing out, and maybe spends some money, and sees what they have.

Meg Rowley: The Nats are in a weird spot, and we’ve yet to see how big a step forward the Braves and Phillies will take.

Meg Rowley: It isn’t impossible for the Mets to compete. They’d just have to be less themselves.

Mandy (the Movie) is Dandy: While the focus of the “Opener” strategy has been on the relievers starting the game, will it also make the “Bulk” innings guys more in demand?

Meg Rowley: You need depth and good health to pull it off, so sure. There is always a need for more pitching. Even the Rays didn’t want to lean on the Opener as much as they did.

X: Having hired Zaidi, are the Giants potentially exposed to liability for the Dodger’s RICO issues? Or does the hiring implicitly suggest that any wrongdoing was directed by someone else, since a reasonably well-run organization wouldn’t seek out employees who are facing serious legal issues?

Meg Rowley: Goodness me do I have no idea.

PTBNL: I hope you enjoy your coffee.

Meg Rowley: I almost always do.

Nick: If the Angels aggressively try to sign Trout to a monster extension and he rejects all offers, do they almost need to trade him, given the insane package he likely brings in? Or do they try to compete this year and either trade him at the deadline or try to extend him at the end of the year?

Meg Rowley: I think they will try to extend him. I don’t think they’ll succeed. I still find it pretty improbable that they actually find a trade partner.

Meg Rowley: I can’t imagine being the guy who trades Trout.

Kevin: With teams like the White Sox, Reds, and Padres are looking at signing some of the bigger name free agents after bottoming out but also before all three are realistically ready to contend. Do you see this as a recalibration after what we saw last year? I guess my question is do you thing the clear distinction of greatnteams and rebuilding teams is going to be the new norm or do you think the middle class will start to emerge again?

Meg Rowley: I tend to think this stuff goes in waves. The Mariners signing Cano is a useful comp here, or perhaps last year’s Phillies with Arrieta. I think there’s something to the idea that you can pry open your window early, and then hey you already have a really good player on the roster and don’t have to give up any of the minor league pieces you’ll want when the window is open in earnest.

Meg Rowley: It’s weird to say but we might downplay the usefulness of cash in circumstances like this.

Meg Rowley: It’s easy to spend than prospects, and less painful.

Derek: I’m sure that, during the regular season, it hasn’t been hugely enjoyable to be a Mariners fan lately, but what is it like to be a fan of a Jerry Dipoto-led team during the offseason? Exciting? Terrifying? Something in between?

Meg Rowley: Gotta say, right now it is something of a bummer!

Meg Rowley: Whatever comes of this investigation, it is discouraging that the relationship between the org and Dr. Martin degraded so profoundly. Good management often involves figuring out ways to salvage situations like that. So even if proves to be a complicated mess, which is my guess, there’s still a management failure here.

Meg Rowley: Also, good grief their pitching and also catching is gonna be not good next year.

Johnny Coconuts: Batting cages and ice cream is a solid date choice, right? I suppose it depends on the couple…

Meg Rowley: It always depends on the couple.

Bread Gardner: Can we all please just admit that the AL East is going to be a freaking bloodbath?  The Sox and Yanks aren’t going anywhere except at each other’s throats, and the Rays are ascendant.  I would absolutely not be surprised to see three 90-win teams in this division.

Meg Rowley: Are there people who are denying that?

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: I know they’re kind of lost in the shuffle of their division, but is it really inconceivable that the Pirates could contend for the division next year? While they appear to have better rosters, neither the Cubs nor Brewers necessarily seem to be locks for a division that might be muddier than most.

Meg Rowley: I would be surprised if only because it would likely require some reloading and they seem disinclined to spend and don’t have a ton to trade.

Meg Rowley: Not impossible but seems unlikely.

Chip: Hi, Meg, what’s your favorite coffee shop in Portland?

Meg Rowley: I don’t live there, so I couldn’t say.

Josh: If you had to pick, what’s your “next frontier” for teams to gain a competitive advantage?  I’m inclined to say health / conditioning, but so much of that seems so random that it feels like it’d be tough for a team to realistically action on

Meg Rowley: I think it is likely to be neuroscience, which sounds cool and is cool and also makes me nervous as a pro-labor person.

Bryce H____r: Where will I really end up?

Meg Rowley: I think Yankees after all that.

Lars: The Mariners might be in a big (deserved) mess with these recent allegations. They are also potentially the biggest sellers this offseason. Do you think they will be allowed (by ownership/MLB) to make any big trades while they are being investigated?

Meg Rowley: I expect so. MLB didn’t announce that anyone was being put on leave when they announced the investigation, unless I missed it.

Meg Rowley: As for ownership, they didn’t remove Mather so my expectations are low.

Jason N: What do you expect the Mariners to get for Paxton?  More lottery ticket guys, or more close to the majors, low-ceiling/high-floor guys?

Meg Rowley: I think they have rightly gauged that he’s one of the most attractive trade targets out there, and will expect a lot.

Meg Rowley: I’d imagine closeish but still young, very good prospects.

Jason N: Who has the most trade value between Paxton, Kluber and Carrasco?

Meg Rowley: This might be discounting Kluber too much based on age but Paxton 1A/Kluber 1B, Carrasco?

Meg Rowley: There are durability concerns with Paxton, but they’re mostly the result of kinda weird, not-elbow injuries. He hasn’t had TJ. His conditioning is much better. He has control left.

Glixie: What avenue of player acquisition provides the most value for teams? Clearly no longer free agency, lots of ppl might say draft but I feel international signings are a better bet because there’s more room internationally for teams to differentiate themselves, you have any ideas?

Meg Rowley: I think the best, smartest teams don’t foreclose any of those options, and leverage them in service of one another where they can. Draft and international talent is good to develop on its own, and those guys are also interesting trade pieces. Being willing to spend or take on contracts opens up talent, like the Astros with Verlander in 2016.

Michael J: I realize his postseason was garbage, but isn’t it ridiculous that Dodger fans are excited that Grandal will be gone?  He’s been one of the three best catchers in baseball for a few years, and unless they go all in for Realmuto, the options for 2019 don’t look too hot.  There will be a point in 2019 when Dodger fans will be killing for him.

Meg Rowley: There could be– I agree that being jazzed he is gone is silly, though they do have some compelling guys waiting in the minors.

Meg Rowley: But yeah, fans never really appreciate good framing until it’s gone and then you want to light yourself on fire.

Lunar verLander: …that Very Pressing E-mail wasn’t an offer letter from The Athletic…was it?

Meg Rowley: It was not. I love FanGraphs. I’m wearing a FanGraphs hoodie right now.

Meg Rowley: One of our copy editors at THT had a question on a piece running tomorrow.

Kim: What’s the rationale behind not trading a closer coming off a likely career year (in which he threw a good amount of innings) when your team is currently “reimagining”? It seems crazy to not trade Edwin Diaz – or any closer – when you most likely won’t be competitive for the next 2-3 years at least.

Meg Rowley: I think if you were to ask them, they would say that his value at the deadline will be very, very high, and that you can get more for him.

Meg Rowley: Also that he’s young and has a lot of control left (that argument isn’t very compelling).

Meg Rowley: I would say, as someone who clearly doesn’t have access to his medicals, that I’m nervous by nature, and his throwing motion makes me nervous, and I would have tried to move him. Which, maybe they did and they didn’t like the offers. But I agree it’s a bit weird

Glixie: Who do you take, Vlad or Acuna? Vlad has a year more service time (assuming Jays manipulate like we expect) and higher offensive ceiling, but Acuna has also already proven so much at MLB-level and can field decently out in CF

Meg Rowley: As a matter of personal preference, I tend to find more well-balanced players more compelling. That said, Vlad is a really special hitter. I can’t wait to watch Vlad in the majors. I am mad at the Blue Jays for having to wait so long. Silly bird. So Acuña but not by a lot.

Mandy (the Movie) is Dandy: Joe Mauer HOF:  In or Out?

Meg Rowley: In for me, but I’m a big Hall person

Griff: Is baseball’s first $400M player already in the league? Or at least in the minors?

Meg Rowley: We’re gonna need new math for Trout.

Taylor: The Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs all project to have significantly better teams than the Brewers, per the current depth charts.  What does MIL most need to do to win the NL Central again?

Meg Rowley: I imagine they’ll attempt to fortify the pitching and also shore up an infield spot or two.

Bryce H____r: Where do I want to play for the next several years? I could use some impartial advice…

Meg Rowley: If I were picking a major league city to live in, I would pick San Diego, Denver or Seattle, so maybe don’t take my advice?

random dog: 🙁

Meg Rowley: Dogs being sad is the saddest thing.

Kelly: Would Paxton or Diaz fetch a greater return?

Meg Rowley: Paxton.

Shameless Cardinals Homer: Any update on the MiLB minimum wage case?

Meg Rowley: Given the legislation that passed, I thought this had largely gone away but I might be wrong?

stever20: Do you think MLB is going to do anything to limit the # of relief pitchers like they’re talking about?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think that will be an immediate change if it is enacted at all.

Meg Rowley: There are other, less disruptive time savers that they should, and likely will, try first.

Meg Rowley: Weird queue today, folks.

RDJ818: I’ve sort of lost the passion to ever be involved in a Major League front office after all the controversies and scandals being reported, especially in the past several months. Do you have advice on other avenues to make working in baseball full-time work? Beyond FanGraphs, obviously, unless they hire again

Meg Rowley: The depressing answer is that media is very weird and risky, so.

Meg Rowley: The further depressing answer is that these scandals, while a bummer we should do something about, aren’t unique to baseball!

Meg Rowley: A moment, all, a wild Carson calls.

Dylan J: As a follow-up, how much longer are we all going to be saying that the next frontier is “health” or “injury science”? 5 years? 10?

Meg Rowley: Until someone’s cracked the code probably.

Brodie Band Wagenen: In the livechats, what team are you asked about the most you think?

Meg Rowley: Mariners a lot just because I’m a Seattle baseball person who has written about them. Also because they’ve been newsworthy. Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers. Also, a lot of Brewers and Padres.

Meg Rowley: Mets when they do something weird/sad.

Nick: We often hear about certain teams having to pay a premium to land free agents (e.g., the Rockies trying to sign pitchers, losing teams trying to acquire stars in their prime), but has anyone ever done a study to try to quantify what that premium amounts to?  Or even interviewed players, etc. to determine if its actually a factor in their decision?

Meg Rowley: I’m not aware of a study, though it’s a good question.

Meg Rowley: Thinking you’ll be able to play in the playoffs matters to guys, so I’d think the premium isn’t insignificant.

Super Benintendo : …drinking your coffee from THE FanGraphs mug?

Meg Rowley: It is in the dishwasher at the moment, but it is a good mug.

BrianCashGod: Speaking of the M’s plans for a starting pitcher this offseason, what do they do with Felix Hernandez? Do nothing and hope he has a reinvention / renaissance like Sabathia did a few years ago, or is there another option?

Meg Rowley: Lots of M’s questions today, perhaps unsurprisingly.

Meg Rowley: I imagine they’ll hope on a bounce back with the understanding that they’re about to be without a number one starter/could move him to the bullpen. And then I imagine the Felix era will end, in a sad way that I’ll have a surprising number of feelings about.

Super Benintendo : San Francisco is a nice little town .. and I mean … Harper should be able to afford a house there after his contract, right? Right?

Meg Rowley: Debatable.

robertobeers: Beyond enjoying the nostalgia and competitive atmosphere, how do you rationalize attending NFL games given the league’s current state?

Meg Rowley: I’m a weak, flawed person who has already paid for her season tickets and enjoys spending time with her dad once a week.

Shecky: How do you think M’s fans and MLB fans in general should view an 89 win team’s effort to move its ace SPer and esp with 2 control yrs to go..?

Meg Rowley: That they’re realistic about where their window lines up with his control years.

Mandy (the Movie) is Dandy: If you had a feud with a major league player, who would it be?

Meg Rowley: I try not to feud with people.

Dylan J: If you were running a front office and one of your objectives was to deceive the public into thinking that you were “progressive” and “analytically-inclined”, how would you go about doing that/what would that look like?

Meg Rowley: Why would that be a goal of mine? Why wouldn’t my goal be to be a progressive org and win baseball games?

Super Benintendo : Soooo for the first time I will be visiting the Hall of Fame in early December … ever been? Recommendations on what to see? (A visit to Ommegang is also planned, of course.)

Meg Rowley: I have not been. Jay has been many, many times. He can probably shower you with recommendations. An embarrassing number, really.

CocoPuffs: Thank you for chatting Meg! What is your favorite and least favorite part of your job?

Meg Rowley: My favorite part of my job is that my job is baseball and I get to think about the thing I like most all day, and discuss it with smart writers I admire who feel obligated to talk to me during working hours because they’re my colleagues.

Meg Rowley: My least favorite part is freelancers filing late.

Meg Rowley: Grinds my gears.

RDJ818 : Who’s the person to contact about when more hoodie sizes will be available to order.

Meg Rowley: Hmmm the answer is probably Appelman, but I’m not sure. Ask me again next week and I’ll find out in the meantime.

Reg Mowley: if mlb wants to speed up games, why not eliminate warm up pitches for relievers?

Meg Rowley: I imagine the pitch clock is coming. I imagine a limit on how many warm ups they throw is coming, though they have the commercial break so I’m not sure how much time that will really save.

stever20: why was this postseason so unmemorable?   Especially on the heels of so many great ones recently?

Meg Rowley: When series resolve quickly you get fewer chances for big moments, and fewer of them in the games you do have, which tend to be more lopsided.

Reg Mowley: what reporter has the best inside sources?

Meg Rowley: Probably the folks you’d expect. Passan, Rosenthal, etc. That is not an exhaustive list by any means.

Dylan J: Which Major League team is most in need of adding a live animal mascot?

Meg Rowley: There shouldn’t be mascots. Mascots are weird and we shouldn’t indulge them.

Nats fan : Am I wrong for thinking that both Robles and Soto will have a higher WAR next year than Harper?  And that it won’t even be close?

Meg Rowley: They could have a higher WAR, but I expect if they did it would be close.

If I were a rich man: Why don’t the Mets at least deepen their Analytics department its cheaper then purchasing free agents?

Meg Rowley: You need ownership to buy in. Ownership will continue to be the issue there.

Shiny: Moving Kyle Seager at this point would be a terrible idea: true or false?

Meg Rowley: I would wait and see if there is value to be rebuilt, which I expect there is. He was dinged up last year, and also couldn’t figure out how to deal with the shift. I expect you need to sort out how much of each was in play.

Regarding Mascots: Yeah but if teams listened to you, we never would have gotten Gritty.

Meg Rowley: Take: Gritty is like the Joker in the Dark Knight Rises. In our desperation, we’ve turned to a man we didn’t fully understand.

Kelly: What’s wrong with Mather, in your opinion?

Meg Rowley: If it were me personally, I wouldn’t have promoted him to CEO post workplace harassment. Just a little thought of mine.

Meg Rowley: And now, as mascot takes roll in, I must take my leave to podcast with Carson. Sorry for what I didn’t get to.

Meg Rowley: I will be chatting next week, but some others won’t as a result of the holiday.

Meg Rowley: Until then, have a great rest of your week and thanks for hanging out.