Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 6/5/18

Meg Rowley: Hello! Welcome to my let-Meg-sleep-at-least-a-little delayed chat!

never fail beta male: Brewers just dropped 2 out of 3 to the lowly White Sox, this is the beginning of the end and the fun is over, right? Please tell me I’m not right…

Meg Rowley: You’re probably not right! The Brewers are a good team, but even good teams lose to lousy teams sometimes.

Meg Rowley: I like that Brewers team a lot. It must be so strange to be a baseball player and have your bad days make everyone so profoundly nervous.

Meg Rowley: We all have bad days.

Brewers Fan: New Glarus or Capital Brewery ?

Meg Rowley: New Glarus but they both have things to like and might I suggest Karben4 Brewing?

MY FIELD OF DREAMS: Always great work, 10 team H2H points dynasty. I have a few stud pitchers but a ton of mid tier guys such as Corbin, Lester, Tanaka, Faria, Lopez, Junis, Pivetta, Gausmann, Wood. How would you go about this situation and curious on your strategy of holding onto all these guys and seeing if a few can breakout or package two to get a consistent starter? Thanks!

Meg Rowley: I would, because I care about you as person, ask a fantasy chat!

Snarfle: Why can’t an antelope elope with a cantaloupe?

Meg Rowley: Do antelopes observe marriage traditions like people do? I would imagine that’s as big a barrier as anything. Also, viewing your spouse as a snack.

Defenestrater: How is baseball on jet lag?

Meg Rowley: I am very tired because of travel stuff outside of my control. This might be the most I ever feel like a baseball player.

Baseball is Weird: If the Tigers still had their signed-thru 2018 players from last year they traded (mostly Verlander), even if he wasn’t as good as he is with Houston, they’d be neck and neck right now with Cleveland for the division.

Meg Rowley: The issue is they likely wouldn’t stay neck and neck with Cleveland.

2-D: Is it safe to say that Kenley Jansen is out of the April woods?

Meg Rowley: Safe-ish? The velocity seems like it has ticked back, but man, remember last year when Kenley was striking out all the people and walking none of the people? That was so cool. I’m still not sure we talked about that enough.

divine chanteuse: why are Rays minor league pitchers magnets for tommy john surgery? follow up, what can i do to escape this waking nightmare?

Meg Rowley: They’re pitchers? I don’t think there is any special Rays thing there.

Meg Rowley: But you should remember that fandom isn’t like having blue eyes. You can always root for a different team.

Meg Rowley: I would suggest an NL East Coast or Midwest team so they are easy to watch.

Billy Beane: Very pleased that Luke Heimlich’s name has not been called and I wish him luck working in advertising or as a gas station manager or something where people don’t buy shirts with his name on it.

Meg Rowley: The draft isn’t over yet.

Brandon: I just want to say, as someone who works in a FO, it’s very sad when public baseball twitter stops commenting on every pick 🙁 What else are ops interns supposed to do between picks!?

Meg Rowley: Brandon, I had to sleep. I hadddd to.

Guest: So many guys coaching collegiate softball, and no women anywhere in MLB or the baseball CWS. What the heck? Women can write, so I’m assuming they can coach… Meg…Meg.. what the heck?

Meg Rowley: I think it’ll happen eventually, but most coaches and managers used to be players and most women aren’t playing competitive baseball.

Meg Rowley: But we’ve seen a number of NFL teams hire women as assistants and position group coaches, so I imagine it will happen for baseball, too.

Matt: Do you think there is any connection to Altuve not running so much and him signing that extension? Any sort of “look what happened to Trout” type dialogue?

Meg Rowley: I haven’t seen anything like that. I know Michael Baumann did a very deep dive on Altuve a little while back and he’s mostly the same guy when you look at the peripherals. I think we’ll see the power turn around.

Meg Rowley: And he has 8 stolen bases. His base running value is still quite good.

Meg Rowley: Love the Altuve you have, imo.

ThatsNotMyMonster: Astros just went 4-6 against CLE, NYY and BOS (granted, they were all on the road). They’re out of first place in the AL West. They’re not panicking, sure, but are they as dominant as we thought?

Meg Rowley: I am a Mariners fan and the Mariners being in first place as the first place Seattle Mariners is great, delightful fun, but the Astros are terrifying. Don’t let a 4-6 road record against good teams fool you.

Meg Rowley: Terrifying. Terrifying! Let’s look at the Astros for a minute:

Meg Rowley: The Astros are tied with the first place Seattle Mariners and the Brewers for the third best record in baseball, and they are underperforming their pythag by 7 wins. They’re underperforming their BaseRuns record by 4 games.

Meg Rowley: They have a 122 run differential. The next closest team is the Cubs at 93.

Meg Rowley: The Astros are terrifying.

yojiveself: A player hits a single and then is on 1st base.  What does he and the first baseman talk about?  Even teams that rarely face each other always seem to have guys on opposing teams chit-chatting, occassionally sharing a laugh at first base.  any thoughts?

Meg Rowley: A lot of guys seem to have genuine friendships that last through offseasons. Guys become friends at the All-Star game. Sometimes it might just be them admiring the other player as a player. There’s always an umpire to complain about.

Chapultepec Audiorama: How much do you think the fan support for the Golden Knights inproves Las Vegas’s standing as a possible expansion city?

Meg Rowley: Maybe marginally. Leagues always do in depth market research before they go into a new market, so I’m sure this isn’t surprising. Plus it is pretty easy to get hyped for a team that is literally in the Stanley Cup their first year.

Meg Rowley: It is a nice proof of concept, though.

Cool: Hi Meg, how was your reunion? Are college/high school reunions worth it to go to?

Meg Rowley: I think the milage on them can vary, but I went to a small all-women’s college, so there were a lot of people there I was quite close to, and it was great to see them.

Meg Rowley: Also, Bryn Mawr looks like a gosh darn castle, and it is never bad to spend a weekend at a castle.

Stuck in a Slump: Meg,

What’s up with Nimmo? Is this sustainable? Is there reason to believe that he can continue to be a solid producer ROS? Outside of his ISO, nothing seems to standout in his statline. His Pull% is up, his Hard% is up (so is his Soft%), but he’s also hitting a lot of popups. Thanks!

Meg Rowley: I think the popups thing is mostly due to him hitting more line drives, which is a good thing. He walks a fair amount, has a very good eye, and has the pop. He’s hitting the ball hard more. I think it is ok to be excited about Nimmo. He’s good. He might not be this good all the time, but he’s pretty good.

Cool: Is Dan Vogelbach destined to be a AAAA guy?

Meg Rowley: Won’t someone somewhere let him DH? Please.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Hey Meg, do you mind reminding our friends in California, Montana, Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota to get out there and vote today?

Meg Rowley: Voting is your most sacred duty as a citizen. You should vote if you possibly can (recognizing that our system makes voting much harder than it should). This has been my plug for Voting. Next week? Jury Duty.

Jake Junis Priest: What do we do with Luke Heimlich?

Meg Rowley: If you and me were running a draft room? Wish him well in a life as an insurance salesman or a cabinet maker.

Gabe Kapler: Am I going to use a consistent closer this season? Will it be Seranthony Dominguez? When will the saves come? Thanks Meg.

Meg Rowley: I think you’ll settle (sort of) on something and it could well be Seranthony! He is very interesting.

Meg Rowley: If you haven’t, you guys should read Jake Mailhot’s fourth residency piece on him https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/finding-the-next-edwin-diaz/

Cool: I’ve seen a lot of knowledgeable people say that a league wide DH rule seems far off. Why wouldn’t owners like the idea of adding the DH to the NL? I like watching a pitcher crush one as much as the next person but the positives seem obvious: Increased offense, presumably better health for pitchers, and the union would like that there are now twice as many jobs for slower, lumbering power hitters. What am I missing?

Meg Rowley: The union part might be part of the practical resistance to it, but a lot of it is that they are attached to the tradition. People have Views about the DH.

Meg Rowley: I think pitchers hitting is goofy (I grew up watching Edgar Martinez, so) but I like that it happens as a bit of experimentation and difference and texture

…: How elated am I allowed to be after Felix’s last start?

Meg Rowley: You are allowed to be as excited as you want to be. I don’t know you, so I’m not sure how well you handle let downs, but that is Future You’s problem.

Brian CashGod: Given your recent flight, what are your thoughts on the Yankees / MLB / MLBPA vs. ESPN scuffle?

Meg Rowley: I think it is incredibly reasonable to be miffed over. Refusing access is always a weird way to go about expressing that, but I totally understand why they are mad. I’ve been disappointed to see some fans let their dislike of the Yankees cloud what is I think a pretty straightforward labor issue.

unpopular opinion: bryce harper and manny machado are both overrated fight me irl if you win you get beer

Meg Rowley: I think I win getting to enjoy Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Fighting is silly.

HappyFunBall: Are you a hockey fan Meg? Given the success of the Vegas Golden Knights, will there be riots in Seattle (polite ones, of course) if the expansion draft rules are neutered a bit before 2020?

Meg Rowley: I like hockey, even though I don’t know it super well. And yes. I think some folks here are indulging unrealistic expectations.

Ben: Justin Smoak has turned into a useful player. He now has 4.9 WAR over 1,035 MLB games in his career. Mike Trout has 5.1 WAR in 61 games this season. How crazy is that?

Meg Rowley: He is just so amazing.

stever20: Do you think Corey Kluber will be able to keep up what he’s done the last calendar year (23-4 with a 1.76 ERA in 35 starts with 312 k’s)?  Or do you think he’ll fade?

Meg Rowley: We all fade eventually, but he hasn’t shown me anything to suggest it will happen soon.

Guest: I heard about Beyond the Baselines: Celebrating Women in Baseball through the Effectively Wild Podcast and was super interested. Unfortunately I live a little too far away and cannot attent, but I really want to see the event. Will there be a live-stream or video recording of the event?

Meg Rowley: I’ll confirm we’re doing it again, but yes, I think so. We did a Facebook livestream of the event last year.

stever20: Is Fantasy baseball the #1 reason why old school stats still are used so much?

Meg Rowley: It isn’t the only reason, but it is probably a reason, and maybe a big one.

Bo: What would it take from the Braves to get Donaldson and a SP like Stroman? Would the Jays listen on either/both?

Meg Rowley: I imagine that in short order, the Jays will start listening on lots of things.

Justin: My god, can we climb out of the Astros’ backsides on FG for a day? They strike out a lot of people. But maybe, as we saw in an April chat you ran, they’re not going to win like 110 games? I still think they’re the best, talent-wise, but the gap cannot just be BaseRuns and pythag. Blowing bullpen games matters!

Meg Rowley: It is but also, they have the 6th best bullpen by WAR in the majors, and it is only June. I’m not saying they are going to win 110 games. I think they are the best team in baseball.

54: Where do you foresee Max Muncy falling on the Justin Turner-Chris Taylor spectrum?

Meg Rowley: Somewhere in between, probably leaning closer to Taylor, but that opinion is subject to entire libraries of changed opinion. I will admit to not being super familiar with Muncy as a minor leaguer, so I need to see more.

David: Do you think the Brewers considered the revenue loss in jersey sales for even one minute when they decided not to draft Seth Beer?

Meg Rowley: Not even one minute but I am in mourning.

54: If you weren’t Emerald City through and through, but chose to emigrate to America, and part of the process for repatriating was learning everything about every baseball franchise, and then you had to select a favorite team without any sort of allegiance, just like, the players and FO and their twitter feed, what cap are you rocking? I was born into the evil empire, but admire the Rays and As.

Meg Rowley: I like the Brewers a lot. If, in this scenario, I still like weird baseball as much as I do, I might pick the Rockies, but that’s partly because I like Denver so much.

HappyFunBall: Why would the union be opposed to the DH? It’s the perfect roster spot for older players who might otherwise be pushed out of the league by someone younger and cheaper (and not in the union yet)?

Meg Rowley: Apologies, I wasn’t super clear. The union wouldn’t be; paying players doesn’t seem to be ownerships’ favorite thing to do.

Al: Why is Heimlich fit enough to be an insurance salesman or a cabinet maker (actual jobs) but not someone who plays a child’s game for a living?

Meg Rowley: I recognize that folks milage on this varies. There are a lot of reasons I’m not comfortable with Heimlich in baseball, but here’s what I think it comes down to. Baseball players are entertainers. They do it with a bat or a ball, but they are entertainers. They entertain children; they entertain victims and survivors of sexual abuse. They are held up as role models to children. And this guy sexually abused his niece. Baseball is not obligated to participate in Heimlich’s redemption. And we aren’t suggesting he go to jail. We are suggesting that he do one of the literally thousands of jobs that isn’t this.

Bryan: Hypothetically, if the Mariners were to make the Wild Card, would you want Paxton pitching that game or the potential game 1 of the DS so you can maybe get 2 starts from him?

Meg Rowley: If it lined up, Paxton for the WC. You have to win the WC to advance. It’s the obvious disadvantage of not winning the division, but the stakes could not be higher.

Meg Rowley: You pitch your best pitcher and then you figure the division series out later.

Jason: That Yankees complaints about travel and schedule is very sad.  Welcome to Seattle’s world every season.  Get over it. Right??

Meg Rowley: No. Two things can be bad at once.

Brian CashGod: Any tips for not fan-ing out when meeting someone from your favorite team? I recently met someone from my favorite club for the first time, and while I think I played it pretty cool, I nearly forgot my gf’s name when I went to introduce them.

Meg Rowley: I think you get to fan out a little! You’re a fan! They want you to be a fan. You being a fan is important to their whole job.

Meg Rowley: I think it is nice to just say, “Hey Player X, I really enjoy watching you play. Keep it up, we’re rooting for you.”

Sum: thoughts on those oven mitts baserunners wear to protect their filanges on headfirst slides? I’m of the opinion that, while practical, they provide an unfair advantage of a couple of could-be important inches.

Meg Rowley: I think whatever marginal advantage they provide (which I have to think is pretty marginal) is outweighed by us getting to watch great players all season rather than lose some to injury.

Darth Sabean: I just made a joke about Dipoto immediately trading Logan Gilbert for Kirk Nieuwenhuis. But the joke was on me, apparently Dipoto had already acquired Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

Meg Rowley: There are some WILD names on the Mariners roster. WILD.

Bo: Of the teams currently holding a playoff spot, who doesn’t make it?

Meg Rowley: Entirely? I hate to say Seattle but maybe Seattle? Or you know what? It might be Arizona?

Connor: Who wins the NL West?

Meg Rowley: I think it’ll probably still be the Dodgers.

Moltar: Fantasy Baseball is also the #1 reason new stats are used so much. Also the #1 reason people care so much more about the draft these days. It’s a good thing!

Meg Rowley: It was not meant to be a knock on fantasy baseball, truly.

Andy: Does Ohtani have an edge in that when he’s hitting, he has a better idea of what’s going through the mind of the pitcher? And vice-versa when he’s pitching?

Meg Rowley: I can see why this is tempting to believe, but I think it is probably a marginal advantage. I always think catchers should be amazing hitters but then…

HappyFunBall: I’d bet old people is the #1 reason old school stats are used so much (MLB has the highest average fan age of the major pro sports) and that fantasy baseball, on the contrary, has contributed immensely to the following of FanGraphs, BP, etc … which has mainstreamed fans to sabermetrics faster than traditional media is getting them there.

Meg Rowley: I think there are definitely folks for whom this is true.

Matt: Would you prefer a drought beer, or a draft Beer?

Meg Rowley: Can I have a draft beer after the Mariners playoff drought ends?

Scott: Seattle has won a Stanley Cup

Meg Rowley: Indeed. The first by an American team in fact. I meant another.

Guest: If the Mariners make the postseason and win the WS will we see Philly style rioting??

Meg Rowley: When the Seahawks won their first Super Bowl, there was some nonsense, but people also observed the walk/don’t walk signs downtown. Some panes of glass on a pergola in Pioneer Square were damaged. People raised money to replace them. We are a weirdly polite bunch.

Andy: I was going to ask your view on Heimlich, but see you’ve answered that question. Do you feel the same way about Matt Bush?

Meg Rowley: I know the fact of criminal conviction makes the cases seem the same, but they are pretty different. For one thing, Matt Bush isn’t denying he did it. The relationship with the victim, both at the time of the abuse and after was different. I don’t know that I would have welcomed Bush back.

Matt: Are Seattleonians just Canadians a few generations removed?

Meg Rowley: No, not really. Seattleites are a different crew. In my experience, no one is as heavily acculturated to politeness as Canadians.

John: Should Houston regret the Altuve extension? I know that he is still productive and a top teir player but the power and speed aren’t there and he has never walked much. He was under contract for two more years and there really wasn’t a big rush, they paid him market value anyway so it’s not even like they got a discount. It feels like Ryan Howard to me.

Meg Rowley: John, I don’t say this to make you feel bad, but that is a wild take.

Meg Rowley: Altuve is a better player than Howard was at the time of the extension, and also, we’re three months into the extension time, and Altuve is a 132 wRC+ palyer.

Matt: Should __(insert decision making entity here)__ be worried about the past two weeks of only slightly above league average production from __(insert great player name here)__?

Meg Rowley: We can worry about all sorts of things, but also do ourselves the kindness of realizing things might be fine!

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: For the record, no one in Philly rioted or got arrested after the super bowl.

Meg Rowley: They celebrated vigorously, and that one guy ate that thing, which was very gross. Friendly amendment?

The Old Buccaneer: Who is more fun to watch, Mookie Betts or Mike Trout?

Meg Rowley: Why would we have to choose?

Meg Rowley: Betts is really good and more dynamic and Mike Trout is Mike Trout.

Matt: How much better would he be considered, relative to his peers, if we found out the Mike is actually a trout?

Meg Rowley: If a fish could do this it would be terrible because Science would steal him away and study him, and then we’d be without Mike Trout.

Jaime: Which stadium has the best ballpark food?

Meg Rowley: I have not been to every ballpark, but of the ones I have been to, I like Safeco and AT&T just because of the variety present.

Slurve: Trout wasn’t the consensus 1.1 pick that ARod or Griffey were… how did he become a generational (at least) talent?

Meg Rowley: Eric or Kiley could fill in some of the specifics here that I might be forgetting (or misremembering) but I seem to recall that it was very cold in the Northeast that year, and some teams were late seeing him and maybe got fewer looks overall?

Pad Squad: Time to give up on Austin Hedges, Manuel Margot, and Hunter Renfroe being key components of the next good Padres team?

Meg Rowley: I still like Manuel Margot and I’m a sucker for good defensive catchers and Hunter Renfroe has a 134 wRC+ but I think the next really good team is a ways off.

2-D: It’s down to Adrian Gonzalez and Carlos Correa as the last qualified infielders yet to make an error this year. I’m sure everyone is aware of this tremendous battle but here’s a reminder.

Meg Rowley: I’m taking this mostly as an opportunity to say (not because he hasn’t committed an error) that Correa’s defense looks better and is grading out better than it has in the past.

Meg Rowley: That’s neat.

Matt: Followup to my Trout-as-a-trout question. Could Mike Trout be the “particle that shouldn’t exist” that physicists found? https://www.livescience.com/62721-sterile-neutrino-detected-fermilab.h…

Meg Rowley: Well Matt, you just blew my very tired mind.

Andy: Has there ever been talk of setting up a forum at FG, so issues could be discussed over longer periods of time? A typical post by one of the writers will reap a lot of comments for about 24-48 hours, then that topic dies. Sometimes the post is about some specific event that clearly has a limited shelf life, but sometimes it has more general value that could provoke long-lasting debate.

Meg Rowley: Hmmm interesting. I might be inclined to do this if we could establish breakers that required everyone to log off, go outside, talk to a human, pet a dog, etc. Debate and discussion is good. Being So Online probably isn’t.

Meg Rowley: I’ll ask though!

Andy: There are at least four AL SS eminently worthy of being in the ASG this year: Machado, Lindor, Correa and Simmons. Who would be your pick to start, and assuming four can’t make the team, who would you regretfully leave off (or maybe move to third?)

Meg Rowley: Just based on where they stack up right now, I’d go Lindor to start, and then Simmons and Machado. If I had to be sure to just pick three, I’d make a point of including Simmons.

Meg Rowley: He hasn’t made the game yet, his year has been great, and I think it means a lot to these guys to make it.

Bryan: If Gleyber keeps it up, do you think he has any chance at winning ROTY?

Meg Rowley: Any chance? Oh sure. I think it will likely still be Ohtani if he stays good because the story is amazing and the degree of difficulty is nuts, but I think Gleyber will make it a race for sure.

The Old Buccaneer: If you are a GM of a team and you can sign one player this summer (without regard to positional need) do you sign Harper or Machado?

Meg Rowley: I expected my instinct to be Harper but I think I’d actually maybe say Machado?

Meg Rowley: You have the positional versatility and the health is a little better and mostly, I just really love watching him play.

ohioastrosfan: My patience is being tested on Vlad being called up….. WHEN??? They talked about moving him to AAA in the next month? Seems so slow.

Meg Rowley: It is so slow.

Meg Rowley: You are right to feel annoyed. I am here to validate your feeling of annoyance.

aaron: gleyber an all star?

Meg Rowley: Hmmm maybe. You know Altuve will go.

Meg Rowley: After that, it will depend on some badish teams and who their reps will be.

Meg Rowley: The Rays have gotten good production there, and who else are they sending? Jed Lowrie has cooled off, but been good, though maybe Chapman goes for them or a reliever.

Meg Rowley: Yankees are going to have plenty of reps so he might lose out just on a positional basis.

Rockie Dangerfield: On a scale of 1-stepping on a lego, where does a neck kink that prevents you from turning your head to one side land?

Meg Rowley: Stepping on a lego for sure. That’s the worst. I’m sorry.

The Old Buccaneer: Can you make me feel better about Cody Bellinger? Last year he was so much more fun.

Meg Rowley: People continue to grow and change all throughout their lives, he’s young, and he’s been good before.

Justin: So who actually does sign Machado?

Meg Rowley: I keep thinking of him as a Yankee. I do. not. like. it. But I keep thinking of him as one. Will sorta depend on the positional stuff I guess.

Jkim: Is it irrational for me to hate the Astros forever as an Asian-American fan? I hate them more than the Giants as a Dodger fan

Meg Rowley: Fandom is inherently an exercise in choosing what you care about the most, and people have disliked teams for far more trivial reasons than that.

Meg Rowley: You aren’t obligated to like any team.

Guest: How many Braves games have you seen this year?

Meg Rowley: A fair number. They’ve been fun! With the exception of Sunday Night Baseball and James Paxton starts, I don’t reliably watch whole games much anymore, but I find myself navigating to them a lot.

Brian CashGod: I see Harper as a more viable target for NYY over Machado – bats lefty, Gleyber and Andujar are killing it at 2B and 3B (and Didi is of course at SS), and Harper could likely take over a lot of the reps in CF, he played it earlier in his career and CF defense isn’t as important as it used to be anyways.

Meg Rowley: Harper in center seems like a not great idea to me.

Bo: What’s your favorite road ballpark to catch a game?

Meg Rowley: I really like Coors and AT&T. I tend to like ballparks in the city the best.

Meg Rowley: Alright folks, I need to get rolling and do some editing.

Meg Rowley: Thanks for chatting and accommodating a goofy schedule, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t get to.

Meg Rowley: See you next week!