Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/30/19

Meg Rowley: Hello and welcome to the chat!

Meg Rowley: With a little over 24 hours to the trade deadline the most of exciting move of the season is Stroman, and the Phillies trying to talk themselves into being excited about Jason Vargas!

Meg Rowley: What a time to be alive.

Theo Epstein: Do I need to do more this deadline than sit and hope Hamels, Zobrist, and Morrow come back healthy?

Meg Rowley: Some reinforcements would be nice. Whether ownership let’s you do more… that I’m unsure of. The Cubs aren’t in terrible shape. If you look at our projected WAR totals for the rest of the season, they aren’t languishing at the bottom, and are the best in the Central. But I like insurance. I am perhaps inclined to being overinsured.

Meg Rowley: That bullpen seems like an obvious spot, though that is also an obvious spot for a lot of teams with more to offer.

Outta my way, Gyorkass?: Got any statcast measurements on Bauer’s rocket over the CF wall?

Meg Rowley: I’m inclined to find misbehavior at work all that charming, or worthy of measurement.

Outta my way, Gyorkass?: “We cannot make any baseball trades but we can have a baseball chat.”…Jerry DiPoto just took that as a challenge.

Meg Rowley: Wouldn’t hate it!

Outta my way, Gyorkass?: MIL is commonly talked about as a team in need of starting pitching (you should check out brewers.com’s “probable pitchers” tab for the next few days lol), but would this team maybe be better suited long term by dealing their 1 year offensive producers like Grandal and/or Moustakas for reinforcements?

Meg Rowley: I see the argument for Mouse more, but Yas has been the best catcher in baseball this year, which I dunno, seems valuable for a playoff run?

Meg Rowley: They can obviously make a move in the offseason (or, ya know, extend Grandal) but their best catching prospect is still a ways out and they are trying to win now.

Meg Rowley: Although, Jacob Nottingham getting more time does allow for Robin Hood related humor, so maybe I’m in?

Aaron: Someone should write a book on a failed MLB rebuild. The five year, 500 loss type where they come out of it with neither a good team nor a good farm.

Meg Rowley: I mean, someone is bound to write a book about the mid-2000s Mariners at some point.

Meg Rowley: ZING! This is somewhat unfair, but only somewhat.

Jerry D: How many trades do I make before the deadline? over under 2 and a half

Meg Rowley: I’ll put them at two. I don’t think their guys are a lot of team’s first choice, but I think a lot of teams aren’t going to get their first choice, so they might end up busy tomorrow.

Outta my way, Gyorkass?: NYM’s Stroman acquisition: mild LOLMets, moderate LOLMets, or most LOLMets?

Meg Rowley: On it’s own, and with Syndergaard still on the roster, it seems fine. If they deal Syndergaard, I like it less.

2-D: Has Kikuchi been a disappointment or are you willing to excuse it as a trial year?

Meg Rowley: So, my expectations weren’t crazy high, but they haven’t been met either.

Meg Rowley: The fastball was known to be below average, but I thought the rest of the repertoire would play up more than it has. And now he’s 28.

Aaron: My Giants deadline hopes. Madison stays if he wants, goes if he wants. The relievers turn into MLB ready prospects who help the team tomorrow.

Meg Rowley: Hope is neat that way.

Bored: Use your powers to make something happen.

Meg Rowley: Would that I could

Kevin: Does the Stroman trade set the market for starters or do we see the Jays return as an aberration tomorrow evening? If two lower ranked pitchers can get a controllable starter, then a Top 50 guy from the Rays like Brujan or Sanchez should be able to get any available starter. I’m desperate as a Rays fan for them to trade one or both of these guys for a win now move!!

Meg Rowley: I think it absolutely alters how anyone trying to deal with the Mets for Thor views things, though the Mets would also be right to note the differences and demand more.

Meg Rowley: Contenders can also get kinda desperate as the clock ticks down. But generally not so desperate to overpay. Elsewhere, I think it depends on the dude, as these things often do.

Brook Jacobin: Hi Meg. Is there a writeup in the works on the Indians/Rays trade? I was surprised to see that Arroyo still has a 50 FV on is player page, and am wondering what his future prospects look like after a couple of lost seasons.

Meg Rowley: Yup, though it’ll be that within the context of other 40-man crunch situations.

Keith Law’s T30 Yu-Gi-Oh Cards: Tatis is rocking a .433 BABIP and a K rate above 29%. He’s absolutely due for regression. Where do you see him falling? It seems like everyone is so enamored with him that they kind of ignore such historic luck he’s having while showing a clear hole in his game.

Meg Rowley: I think he’s one of those guys where yes, we know it probably isn’t this, but he’s a tremendously gifted player. The contact was always the thing to watch with him; what he’s doing now doesn’t fully answer that question so much as it forestalls a critical assessment of it at the big league level.

David: I feel like we are actively encouraging Jerry Dipoto’s addiction to trades, shouldn’t we be getting this man some help.

Meg Rowley: Eh, what if we didn’t frame his propensity to trade using a vocabulary of addiction?

MARCUS STROMAN: DO I HELP

Meg Rowley: Yes. You’re a good pitcher. Good pitchers almost always help! Will you help enough to turn around the Mets? I mean, you are but one man, and mortal at that.

Derek : Is the next 24 hours going to be an extended nightmare for all FanGraphs employees, or are there just not going to be any trades?

Meg Rowley: Why not both?

Meg Rowley: It’s been quiet.

Meg Rowley: A little *too* quiet.

Meg Rowley: The last day is always kinda goofy. I expect to be tired on Thursday. Our loins are properly girded.

Buttonupsquash: Domingo Santana slumping in July and being bad at defense, plus the sore elbow all seems to spell “lousy return”.  Should the Mariners trade Vogelbach?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think the return was ever going to be amazing. He’s limited to a DH profile, or should be (the defense is truly very bad) but there are teams that need a DH. Cleveland makes a ton of sense to me. I don’t think Vogey really nets them much, and I haven’t heard much scuttlebutt there, but ya never know.

ManBearPuig: Getting hit hard by the Sox is always going to be amplified by the fanbase and media, but the Yanks staff has been hot garbage since the All-Star break. It seems they are being more proactive with fixing issues (Paxton changing his warmup routine to get over first inning issues) than they were last year (Sevy’s second half struggles/pitch tipping, Sonny Gray), but at what point is Larry Rothschild on the hot seat?

Meg Rowley: Those sorts of personnel decisions are always kind of murky because it is difficult to tease out what is the pitching coach, what is the pitcher, and what is baseball ops having an idea. Seems like the approach merits some consideration generally, though. They can’t be thrilled to see Gray’s resurgence coupled with Lance Lynn being a viable Cy Young candidate in the year of our lord 2019.

Meg Rowley: But what of that is Larry specifically? I wouldn’t pretend to know.

Garm: Assuming that no moves are made, which team do you see winning the NL East? It looks like the Braves might be losing some steam lately with the injuries to Markakis and Swanson, and with Austin Riley not being able to hit his way out of a paper bag.

Meg Rowley: I don’t think (but will likely be proven wrong) that Atlanta stands totally pat with their outfield, but I still think they’re the team to beat, even as the margins have tightened.

Bo: Is it possible the Mets still move Stroman? They pretty much control the SP market and could net major hauls for he, Thor and Wheeler.

Meg Rowley: They’ve said they won’t, but also, it is the Mets, so who knows!

Guest: Are the Giants crazy if they do not trade Bumgarner and Smith? I can see it both ways.

Meg Rowley: I think that front office wants to rebuild. I think there’s value in letting your fans like things. I’d be inclined to move them, given the state of their farm, but I can see the argument.

CamdenWarehouse: Mickey Callaway managed to ruin the best Mets moment this season. Boooooo. Jeff McNeil – Cheeer!

Meg Rowley: I imagine that his year-end review will come with some notes.

Squid Vicious: Who’d be the best fit for the Astros: Boyd, Wheeler or MadBum?

Meg Rowley: Boyd or Wheeler

Meg Rowley: Man, I always forget how old Wheeler is

Meg Rowley: that doesn’t change my answer, but I just forget

Derek : The animated Robin Hood is the best Disney movie.

Meg Rowley: It is definitely supremely under-appreciated

Meg Rowley: Robin Hood, Great Mouse Detective (lol I said Mouse instead of Moose earlier, didn’t I?), Sword in the Stone

Nate: If the Brewers move Grandal, think there’s any way the Astros could sneak in there to make some kind of three way out of it and get him?

Meg Rowley: I don’t think they’ll do that, so no.

jerry Deeeeeeeeee: do you keep up with any other sports besides baseball?

Meg Rowley: I watch a lot of NFL and some college football. I enjoy college basketball sporadically. The WNBA is fun.

Ralph Rowdie : The Tigers seem to have missed out dealing Castellanos because no one met their asking price. Then they find out he wasn’t near as valuable as they thought and will be lucky to get back anything for him. They didn’t deal Fulmer for the same reason and he got hurt. Now they appear to be holding on to Boyd for the same reason. At what point do they need to get what they can for their guys to have any sort of future?

Meg Rowley: I think Boyd and Fulmer are a little different than Castellanos, because young, cost controlled pitchers are valuable both as trade chips but also as building blocks, whereas Castellanos was the best of seemingly 95,000 DHs playing out of position on their team. But drafting and player is likely to be what really shapes their org’s direction. You’d like to hit on this stuff, but

Matt: Have you given any thought as to who your favorite team might be if the Mariners had failed to secure the funding for the new stadium in the 90s and moved?

Meg Rowley: Honestly, probably the Braves, just based on what else is likely to have been on regularly? But I’m not sure how my family would have reacted to losing the M’s. We’re still not really NBA people after 2008.

Davy: Meg, is there any chance that the Nationals are going to do anything smart in the next two days?

Meg Rowley: Yes.

jerry Deeeeeeeeee: With your multifaceted role, do you find one particular avenue (writing, chatting, podcasting, editing) more intellectually stimulating?

Meg Rowley: Writing and editing are the top, but they all have their moments.

Disheartened Dodger Fan: I like my FO. I trust them. I understand that there’s a really narrow path to walk on to 1) field a great team while 2) planning to field a great team in the future. That said, something has to be done about the pen. I can’t describe to you how excruciating late game leads feel anymore.

Meg Rowley: I imagine they’ll make a move. I don’t say this with special insight but that Díaz rumor made a bunch of sense to me.

Chat Mapman: Why don’t the Rays move to Nashville? The Sounds sell out their AAA stadium regularly and the city is a boomin’.

Meg Rowley: Could the Rays outdraw the Vandy Boys (please, won’t you all do something, ANYTHING about that nickname), an exploration in sadness

Bo: Pending FAs probably wish to get dealt, since that would negate the possibility of having a QO tied to them in the offseason. Good reason to waive a no-trade clause (MadBum, Greinke to name a few)?

Meg Rowley: Would think it definitely factors.

Lorax: Rest of the year, do you prefer Tatis, or Bichette

Meg Rowley: Tatis

Meg Rowley: I am excited for Bichette, don’t get me wrong.

Meg Rowley: But Tatis looks pretty special at short a lot of the time, and I think there are still some concerns about Bichette’s ability to stick there. But more good, exciting young prospects is good. We are all lucky.

White Sox Fan: Is this the worst starting rotation in recent memory.  We had a guy give up 5 runs in the first on 14 pitches – pretty historic.

Meg Rowley: (Gestures at many years of Reds pitching)

Joe joe bean: You answer a lot of questions about the Mariners. 99% of people don’t give a crap about the Mariners

Meg Rowley: I get a lot of questions about the Mariners. I answer a lot of questions about a lot of teams. The Mariners, a team that makes trades, seems relevant the day before the deadline, no?

Netting: So I agree with you about netting because safety is the most important factor, but I very rarely sit in seats that would be affected by the new netting anyway. The Nats just installed netting all the way down the lines, the first team to do so, and I happened to have upper deck tickets to the game where there was a freak rainstorm that delayed the start of the game. And so after an hour and a half of waiting, I never ventured to the upper deck but instead kept moving closer and closer to the field, eventually ending up four rows behind the home dugout. And I found myself to be annoyed by the netting. It really did make me feel further from the game and was distraction, though it was still amazing being so close to the action and hearing all the on-field sounds. I still support the netting because I’d rather have a worse view and have no one get hurt than the opposite, but I was surprised by how much I didn’t like it (even though I support it.)

Meg Rowley: The White Sox also made the change. I think you’d be surprised how quickly you would get used to it. I know you’re not arguing against netting, but again, the best seats in the house, seats often occupied by people who have to have a good view of the field to do their jobs (scouts) are already behind netting.

Doug: Sour grapes YU-GI-OH is ignoring the fact that Tatis is 20 years old. Of course, he can’t keep up the BAPIP and his K rate is high but a good chunk of the regression monster should be offset but him getting better as he ages. Or maybe he should just watch him play more.

Meg Rowley: I think one can acknowledge that the underlying stats suggest some regression is coming, while still thinking Tatis is a really good player who will be really good for a long time.

yondpete alonso: I miss jeff sullivan

Meg Rowley: Yeah, he was pretty good at this.

RayInEnemyTerritory : Do you feel weird speculating on all the trade scenarios that you all are asked that you can’t possibly know the answers to?

Meg Rowley: Well sometimes we have insight into the situation, and we can still think about fit/front office proclivity etc.

Meg Rowley: There are a lot of trade questions in the queue I haven’t answered, if it makes your feel better.

Spamgettheesquashed: So, that trade for Diaz and Cano netting Kelenic and Dunn…not looking amazing.  Do you assume the Mets won’t get the same value if the trade Diaz now?  What’s the drop in value look like?

Meg Rowley: They won’t, but that’s not really a relevant consideration. Díaz is who they have now.

Morris Buttermaker : Is Andy Green’s managing for his job in the second half? The Pads have taken a step back since the break and I think it’s fair to question if he has punched the right buttons at times given how the team has responded.

Meg Rowley: I don’t think so. I imagine the team knows this roster isn’t fully cooked yet.

HappyFunBall: So does FG pre-write skeletons of trade articles in anticipation? Has someone, for example, written a few hundred words on how Will Smith is going to help Mystery Team X, and then you just fill in the blanks Madlibs style if it happens?

Meg Rowley: We do when we feel confident we know the general shape of the trade or signing. We’re able to turn stuff around quickly enough otherwise that I don’t want people to waste work.

Niles: How has becoming an objective national writer changed how you feel about the trade deadline?

Meg Rowley: Not really? I want teams to try to get better, and for there to be action

Jsto: Who is your pick as of now for NL MVP?

Meg Rowley: Bellinger

kumquatch: Is there a conspiracy theory afoot that GMs are colluding somehow scuttling the news cycle by postponing meaningful trades until Wednesday at 10 am?

Meg Rowley: Not that I’m aware of, but I don’t really traffic in those circles.

Meg Rowley: Alright all, I have to go direct traffic for a while. There will be a chat tomorrow at 12 PT/3 ET ahead of the deadline, so keep your eyes pealed for that.

Meg Rowley: Sorry for everything I didn’t get to. All of your trade proposals were very good and smart, even the bad ones.