Neil Weinberg FanGraphs Q&A – 10/29/14

Neil Weinberg: Hey all, we’ll get started at 3pm. Remember this chat has a stat/sabermetrics/FG data focus, but anything is fair game. And I’m @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter if you’re looking for some info during other parts of the week. Queue is open!

Neil Weinberg: Alright, shall we baseball chat?

Comment From mtsw
Which outfield prevents more runs: 2 Lorenzo Cains or 5 Fangraphs writers?

Neil Weinberg: I would think 2 Cains, but I guess I don’t know for sure the talent distribution of the staff. I would put my confidence at 95%.

Comment From John
Could you all ever add standings to team stat pages? It would make it a lot easier to test the effect of different variables on W/L records.

Neil Weinberg: You can use Team Pitcher W/L record to take care of that.

Comment From Aaron
Does Ben Zobrist’s positional flexibility factor into his WAR at all?

Neil Weinberg: He gets credit for the positions he plays. He does not get extra credit for being able to move to SS to allow the team to pinch hit, for example, unless it happens.

Comment From Chris
How is there not yet an article on NotGraphs titled “There’s a 100% Chance This Weblog Will Die Tonight”?

Neil Weinberg: I assume because that joke is funnier once the game starts, but who knows! I am very interested to see how it ends.

Comment From Phil
How big of a difference do you think the numbers and stats used that we have here are versus the numbers and stats used that teams are actually collecting and working with? Particularly on defense? Seems like there could be a big gap there based on team, etc.

Neil Weinberg: No one has ever let me look at their teams data or anything but it’s somewhere between 0-5 years by most estimates (i.e. how far ahead they are). Generally though, teams have an advantage in that they know things we can’t see. Like which pitch was called, health, etc. Teams have HITf/x, but I was never super impressed with how much extra info was there. StatCast could also really flatten the whole thing because they definitely don’t have better data than that.

Comment From Ceej
The vaunted 1-2 of Buxton/Sano just keeps getting pushed back. With Buxton’s latest injury and what has been said about Sano, do we even see either for September call ups?

Neil Weinberg: I think yes, September 2015 makes a lot of sense.

Comment From Guest
What’s the current break-even point for stolen bases in today’s run environment?

Neil Weinberg: Something like 65-67%. But that’s on average. Each situation has its own, if you want to get technical.

Comment From mtsw
Is Guts the worst pitcher ever to start a World Series Game 7?

Neil Weinberg: I haven’t looked at a list, but there’s a pretty good chance that he’s close enough to call him the winner!

Comment From Loose Seal
Does a pitcher’s performance in the first X innings of a game have any predictive value on how well he’ll perform in X+1 inning?

Neil Weinberg: Almost none. MGL just wrote about this. There’s a tiny effect, maybe, but nothing very meaningful.

Although, pitchers who are pitching poorly and throwing lots of pitches typically do worse than expected, I think?

Comment From Jake deBomb
difference between park/league adjusted and park/league neutral..?

Neil Weinberg: If I understand your question correctly, those are the same thing.

Comment From mtsw
Is the high variability and noise in indvidual defensive stats due to imprecise/subjective measurements that could be improved by tracking data, or is it mostly a function of limited chances and small sample size?

Neil Weinberg: It’s both. And we don’t really know how much of it is each. But, better tracking data will eliminate the measurement ….maybe entirely? That remains to be seen, but getting StatCast instead of human coders will be a big step forward.

Now on the other hand, there aren’t many plays that aren’t routine, so we will always have a sample size problem that you simply cannot resolve. You just have to understand it.

Comment From John W
Thoughts on Bill James’ comments about WAR (http://sportsworld.nbcsport…)? I’ve criticized some specific aspects of WAR myself but overall think it is a great tool. Should James be ashamed for drawing additional unnecessary (uneducated) criticism toward WAR, given his stature in the industry? Posnanski too, for presenting James’ thoughts uncritically?

Neil Weinberg: I confess that I’ve only read the intro and the WAR specific part, so if there’s other stuff that conditions it, my apologies, but I think Bill’s criticism is very weird. Because he criticizes the models, but doesn’t really offer a specific example of the problems he sees.

Neil Weinberg: I would have liked Joe to follow up and push him to explain, but I can imagine he got that quote, put up his feet, and knew he had something people would flock to read.

Neil Weinberg: I’m happy to engage on the merits of WAR, but there isn’t really anything in that quote that I can respond to because I have no idea what his problem with WAR is.

Neil Weinberg: But I agree with Dave’s comments this afternoon, this is a questionable argument, but it doesn’t discredit him or anything at large.

Comment From Jays fan
Is there a ‘war’ for playoff play? Is/would replacement level be higher?

Neil Weinberg: There is not. 1) We don’t have defensive metrics in the postseason, although they are possible, 2) exactly, I have no idea how we would change replacement level.

When you’re looking at HOF cases or something, you can do some approximations for playoff performance, but there’s not Playoff WAR you can just find.

Comment From Gropx
How many fantasy leagues do you play in? Primarily ottoneo, or some other site?

Neil Weinberg: One Ottoneu league. Used to do Yahoo with some friends, but they never took it seriously enough all year. Moved up last year and enjoyed it.

Comment From Guest
That SB% seems lower than I last remember seeing. So do you believe Joe Maddon is correct in believing one way to combat this pitching-dominate era is using speed more?

Neil Weinberg: It used to be higher. But the run environment is much lower than it was 5-10 years ago, which is big deal, because the cost of an out is much lower, so you can risk stealing more often than you used to be able to. Teams should try to steal more now than they did a decade ago, but that doesn’t mean just running wild, either.

Comment From J Money
If it is known that the deeper(more pitches) a pitcher goes the less effective he gets, would it follow that a guys first pitch should be his most effective pitch, with each pitch after that losing incremental amounts of effectiveness. Or would it build up to a certain point at say, pitch 50, and then begin to decline from that point, like a bell curve?

Neil Weinberg: More pitches does not = less effective

Neil Weinberg: You get worse as your opponent sees you more often, so the first time through the lineup you are at one level, then second time another level, etc. It’s more of a step down process than anything continuous.

At some point, fatigue will grab you, but not until you get over 75 pitches, for sure, assuming you are stretched out.

Comment From Gropx
Do you know of any online tutorial for creating fantasy auction draft value based upon fangraphs statistics, in excel?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t, but ask Eno or one of the other fantasy guys. That has to exist.

Comment From Floorguy
Wouldn’t it be a little rude to put up one’s feet in an interview?

Neil Weinberg: Touche.

Comment From GiantsFanAsking?
Is what Bumgarner doing (in the WS) really all that impressive? He is beating a mediocre offense. When Schilling and Johnson were dealing for the 2001 Dbacks, it was against a vaunted Yankees lineup.

Neil Weinberg: I don’t think anyone is really considering Bumgarner better than those guys, are they? Still pretty impressive though

Comment From Dylan
Baseball HAS to fix the strikezone or swing the pendulum back towards offense if they are worried about popularity, right? Will change happen prior to opening day?

Neil Weinberg: I think we’re probably going to see the strike zone stop expanding for about two years then it will slowly shrink. I don’t have any official evidence for this, but I’m pretty confident MLB is doing this on purpose to demonstrate the “end” of the steroid problem.

Comment From mtsw
If there was a “Hall of Very Good” for players who fall just short of the HoF, what city would you locate it in?

Neil Weinberg: Atlanta? Dallas?

Comment From Mike
If I judge past pitcher performance on RA9-WAR and try to gauge future performance using (regular) WAR, is that somewhat accurate?

Neil Weinberg: Not really. FIP-WAR will be a better prediction of the future than RA9-WAR in most cases, but that doesn’t mean RA9-WAR is a better measure of past performance. You have to decide what you want to measure about a pitcher first, and then pick your stats of choice

Comment From Chris
I think the issue with WAR is people expect their stats to be precise measures of something, but WAR, by its very nature, is more of a guideline stat than something precise, and it rubs people the wrong way. That’s my hypothesis.

Neil Weinberg: I think you are mostly correct. The general population does not understand probability and statistics very well at all, which leads them to all sorts of problems like this one.

Neil Weinberg: The other issue is that people don’t like the idea that GREAT players are only 10 games better than horrible ones.

Neil Weinberg: If Trout was 24 WAR and Cabrera was 21 (last year), I think people would honestly be more likely to believe it.

Comment From mtsw
Do you suspect a lot of stuff we’ve learned in the last 20 years was known about by previous generations of baseball thinkers who just never shared it? Earl Weaver, in particular, seems to have understood baseball on a more modern/sophisticated level than he could’ve/should’ve given the convetional wisdom/strategy in his era.

Neil Weinberg: To some extent, yes. My guess is that Weaver, for example, had an intuition about some of the things that we have real evidence for. That happens a lot in science. Someone has a really good theory, but they can’t point to the proof, and so they don’t go around telling everyone.

Comment From mtsw
What’s the argument against letting teams trade future draft picks? Is there a competitive balance rationale? It seems like a wash from a players’ union perspective.

Neil Weinberg: Officially, it’s to keep poor teams from being bad and then selling their picks. There are problem wage-suppression reasons that I can’t recognize too.

Comment From FC
Is 50/50 Pitcher WAR listed anywhere besides the Combined WAR Leaderboards?

Neil Weinberg: No. Can always export and average them in Excel!

Comment From Guest
Wouldn’t the cost an out be much higher since scoring runs has become more scarce? Just seems a bit counter intuitive. Perhaps I’m missing something and just need some clarity.

Neil Weinberg: Cost of an out is lower because there’s a higher probability that you’re going to make an out to end the inning before you score.

Neil Weinberg: I.E. You’re probably not scoring if you’re on first base. If you’re on second, you might score! As the run environment shifts, the break even point slides. It doesn’t shift a lot. But some

Comment From Stephen
Neil, Ottoneu does have an article by Chad Young I think that lays out how he created auction values. Don’t know the link.

Comment From mtsw
Is there a good argument against having relievers ride Segways to the mound to speed up the game other than it being silly?

Neil Weinberg: 1) There used to be bullpen carts.
2) Someone would have to come get it!

Neil Weinberg: 3) Bullpens should just be right behind the dugout, underground. Problem solved!

Comment From Guest
Based on your gut with what they’ll do in the offseason, what do you put the Cubs odds at of winning the NLC in 2015?

Neil Weinberg: Would have to look at the numbers to be confident, but let’s say 20-30%.

Comment From Guest
Is this any reason some ardent baseball fan hasn’t opened a hall of very good in his own basement?

Neil Weinberg: Someone probably has, but no one wants to show up because, dude, it’s in basement.

Comment From Josh
How do we know exactly that a pitcher is not less effective (i.e. decline in stuff) as the game goes on? How can we discern that effect from the effect of being seen multiple times through the order? I’ve always thought of it as a bell curve as the previous question stated. Maybe pitches 1-20 are off as a pitcher finds his feel, and then maybe 80+ or so decline due to fatigue

Neil Weinberg: Pitch count doesn’t really predict performance when controlling for times through the order. So pitch 45 to leadoff hitter and pitch 80 to number 9 hitters on the second trip through don’t yield significantly different outcomes (compared to the expected).

Granted, pitchers might get more comfortable after the first inning or something, but I don’t think anyone has found evidence that a particular set of pitches is the “Best” set

Comment From Gary
Several people have suggested that making the strikezone smaller could make offense problems worse, not better by encouraging even more passivity in batters. There is likely not a simple solution.

Neil Weinberg: I don’t buy that concern at all.

Comment From pop
What is the next advanced stat to go mainstream? I hope it’s GB%. I’d love for guys like Keuchel to get their due.

Neil Weinberg: I think some of these raw percentage will catch on pretty easily.

Comment From Guest
will tonight’s game be a good one? or a blow out

Neil Weinberg: Blowout.

Comment From mtsw
Do you follow the political polling analysis community at all? If so, What were your thoughts on the Nate Silver/Sam Wang feud?

Neil Weinberg: Link? Haven’t really followed this cycle because I haven’t found it very compelling. So I don’t know about this particular one. I recall Silver and PPP going at it a year or two ago

Comment From Guest
Is Notgraphs really going away #BringBackNotGraphs

Neil Weinberg: Yup, but there’s a new site starting outside of the FG empire that will be basically the same. Banknotes Industries!

Comment From Stephen
Yeah, but baseball isn’t basketball, hence why great players aren’t worth 20 more wins than awful ones

Neil Weinberg: Right, but I don’t think people grasp that very well.

Comment From pop
Who is more valuable: C or SS, both with off the charts D but terrible, terrible bat skills?

Neil Weinberg: Catcher, assuming same proportion of awesome defense.

Comment From Los
Jeremy Guthrie is getting a lot of crap for being the “worst Game 7 starter” or whatever. He’s been a useful major leaguer for a long time.

Neil Weinberg: You would never start someone who isn’t a useful MLB starter in a Game 7 unless you played a marathon in game 6. Guthrie has had a solid career, but the sample population isn’t everyone in MLB, it’s playoff caliber starters

Comment From Guest
WAR… a good many folk don’t understand the value of defense either.

Neil Weinberg: Sure, this too

Comment From CatGuy
On Segways – injury risk!!

Neil Weinberg: Have you seen the relievers run in? That’s dangerous too!

Comment From STiVo
When you hear the term “ceiling” for a prospect or player, do you have a particular likelihood of reaching that level in mind? In other words, do you think ceiling means something like 20% chance, 10%, 5%–something else entirely?

Neil Weinberg: If I was using the term, I would say 20-25%.

Comment From mtsw
Relief pitchers hopping off and relaying Segway to batboy would have high gifability potential.

Neil Weinberg: Manager has to ride it back?

Comment From Guest
I went to a museum of fluorescence in a dude’s basement in Amsterdam…

Neil Weinberg: I don’t have anything to add to this.

Comment From mtsw
Cushier gig: 3rd base coach or bullpen catcher?

Neil Weinberg: Bullpen catcher. My dream job. Had a buddy who was a good HS pitcher, but not good enough to get drafted. Played college ball a little. Made him swear to get me a job as a BP catcher if he made the show.

Comment From mtsw
If concerns about baseball’s popularity flagging among young people due to late playoff start times and long games are true, wouldn’t we be able to demonstrate that it’s occurring disproportionately on the east coast?

Neil Weinberg: In theory, yes.

Comment From pop
Are most Fangraphs writers salaried or paid on a per contribution basis? Do have a day job?

Neil Weinberg: Most of us are paid by how much we write, but there are a handful of FT people. I’m currently a graduate student in addition to my various writing jobs.

Comment From mtsw
Here’s a decent rundown of the Silver/Wang feud http://talkingpointsmemo.co…

Neil Weinberg: Per, earlier.

Comment From notalcoholic
Which meal better compliments the baseball viewing experience: beer & hotdog or scotch?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t drink, so the hot dog one.

Comment From timmy l
what inning does bumgarner come in?

Neil Weinberg: Third or fourth

Comment From notalcoholic
Should most MLB clubs be rostering an additional RP and approaching their regular season games playoff style (ie brining in RP much earlier in the game)?

Neil Weinberg: No. Teams have too many RP already.

Comment From Mike
Which would lead to higher run scoring (over the course of a season)? A lineup full of high OBP (.370+), low SLG guys (sub .350) OR a lineup full of high SLG (.500+), low OBP guys (sub .300)?

Neil Weinberg: Would have to run the numbers to be sure, but very likely the OBP team. But it depends on the precise value.

Comment From zurzles
home field advantage sure seems a lot more important now than it did at the ASB. to think, if waino didn’t lob a meatball to jeter…

Neil Weinberg: Wainwright is probably very broken up about the Giants playing on the road! 🙂

Comment From mtsw
Does the unusual strategy of a game 7 (every pitcher is available) mean anything in terms of how teams should compose their batting lineup?

Neil Weinberg: Probably more important to split handedness

Comment From timmy l
re: shortening the game, what do you make of enforcing specific times between pitches, as it affects baserunning? also, do you agree with bill james assertion that the real problem is the number of pitching changes? lastly, is this even that big of a problem? personally i enjoy longer baseball games!

Neil Weinberg: I think they could fix this with one rule change. You can’t step out of the box unless you swing or are doing so to avoid being hit. A lot of the length is commercial time and most of the rest is guys stepping out of the box. Fix the latter and you’ve done all you can.

I don’t mind the length, but I’m not MLB’s target audience.

Comment From notalcoholic
Will there ever be a WAR-esq stat that combines a pitcher’s performance on the mound with his defensive and offensive contributions?

Neil Weinberg: You can combine these yourself pretty easily in Excel if you want to, but I would imagine it’s low on the list of priorities for the big boss, considering almost every pitcher is not worth considering at the plate

Comment From Guest
what do you think about cutting the size of the mound?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t really see the need.

Comment From Guest
will there be a two-way player in your lifetime? e.g. one that excels at pitching and hitting

Neil Weinberg: Lifetime? Yes, just because I’d bet on most crazy things happening in the next 50+ years, but not in the next generation.

Comment From timmy l
will the royals SB potential emerge tonight as it did in the wild card game?

Neil Weinberg: Not like that. But I’m hoping for a 3-2 game and Gore PR in the bottom of the 9th

Comment From Guest
you’re younger than I realized

Neil Weinberg: People say I was born at 40, so given the fact that you’ve never seen me, this is not surprising.

Comment From Mike
How much do you think the Royals/Giants offseason strategy will change depending on who loses tonight? At all?

Neil Weinberg: If the Royals win, I think they might spend a little more. Giants probably don’t do anything differently.

Comment From Guest
where have all the paul swydan chats gone

Neil Weinberg: He chats Tuesday nights, which have been taken over by live blogs. He’ll be back!

Comment From philberto
Born at 40 would make you approximately 74 years old

Neil Weinberg: Younger, actually.

Comment From cor
why doesn’t instagraphs have a border on the front page?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know! Design choice!

Comment From Guest
nothing abt your demeanor, I simply often forget how young people are on this site. get one grey hair and join a fangraphs chat and suddenly you’re an aarp member

Neil Weinberg: My high school english teacher once asked if I had gray hair. I was 17. Wasn’t sure how to take it,.

Comment From Guest
a restaurant near me is serving smoked ice in their cocktails. what is this world coming to

Neil Weinberg: What??

Comment From mtsw
It seems like public interest in getting someone to autograph something has plummeted in the last 20 years. With fewer aggressive autograph hunters pestering players, will fewer players end up acting like jerks when interacting with fans?

Neil Weinberg: Interesting question, but you forgot about social media trolls.

Comment From philberto
Do you believe Van Slyke would thrive in a full time role? Perhaps like Jason Werth without the D.

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know what thrive means, exactly, but I think he can handle a FT role

Comment From Guest
Any stats about how teams do after being shutout?

Neil Weinberg: Nothing lying around to look up easily, to my knowledge

Comment From zurzles
selfies with celebrities are cutting into the necessity for autographs

Neil Weinberg: Or RTs?

Neil Weinberg: Zach Braff fav’d one of my tweets once and someone I went to high school with thought it was the coolest thing ever. Human beings are weird.

Comment From Guest
is war park adjusted?

Neil Weinberg: Yes!

Comment From philberto
What does your custom Fangraphs dashboard look like?

Neil Weinberg: Don’t use one, ironically. I hate change and am too used to the main stats and where the others are located to move them

Comment From Mike
Where do all the un answered chat questions go to die?

Neil Weinberg: We take them to a nice comments section to live out their days

Comment From mtsw
Selfies with celebrities are crucially non transferable. I think most players have a lot more tolerance for annoying actual fans than they do for autograph dealers who aggressively pester them in order to sell the memorabilia for profit.

Neil Weinberg: Very true

Comment From CatGuy
Is WAR adjusted to reflect the number of a games in a regular season?How do we view a player’s X WAR in the context of 154 game seasons vs. 162-game ones, or seasons that were shortened due to wars or strikes.

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, so there are more WAR when there are more games. So a 10 WAR season in 1960 is probably slightly less awesome than one in 1961, but the real issue is when the league expands and replacement level changes.

Comment From cor
Who would be a better left fielder for the Reds, Aoki or Van Slyke?

Neil Weinberg: SVS, I think

Comment From Harold Reynolds
Momentum says ya gotta give this game to the Royals, right Neil?

Neil Weinberg: Unless literally anything happens in the first inning that makes you change your mind.

Comment From Guest
1/2 Helpful tips for rainy day driving: Turn on your headlights! Increase your following distance/watch for brake lights ahead.2/2 A very safe driver, drives defensively/ obeys all traffic laws.

Neil Weinberg: This feels like spam, but it’s good advice, so I will allow it.

Comment From Lucas
Pitch fx questions! Is it more closely related to era or FIP? Is it park adjusted?

Neil Weinberg: There’s no closely related aspect of it to ERA or FIP. Specific pitches lead to different outcomes. Our data isn’t park adjusted, but the data at Brooks Baseball for PITCHf/x is.

Comment From philberto
Do you select which questions to answer, or is there some other moderator?

Neil Weinberg: Whoever is answering the questions picks the questions

Comment From philberto
Which is more valuable over the course of a season: 30 SB in 45 attempts or 15 SB in 16 attempts?

Neil Weinberg: 15 for 16.

Comment From Marketbabies
What’s Friedman’s first priority with the Dodgers?

Neil Weinberg: Deciding on an OF.

Comment From mtsw
Do you think Statcast data will be useful for baseball video game designers?

Neil Weinberg: Hmmmm, probably!

Comment From Harold Reynolds
Thanks for your answer, Neil! I really like the fan engagement you and others at Fangraphs have going on. I’ll have my people look into it, and maybe we can allow a lucky fan to “tweet” at us and have his or her question answered — on-air!

Neil Weinberg: I didn’t actually mean to publish this one, but I like the fake Harold persona you have.

Comment From Player Development Nerd
Does Fangraphs estimate the marginal improvement of a substitution? If a team decides to pinch hit to secure a platoon advantage, is the expected improvement in WPA readily available?

Neil Weinberg: We don’t have anything readily available. Our WPA is all averages. To do that kind of live updating you need a lot of computing power, I think. But these types of calculations can absolutely be done. I, for example, have a thing on my computer than estimates RE tables based on the batter and on deck batter.

Comment From Chris
How will you be watching the game tonight?

Neil Weinberg: On my couch. My wife will fall asleep (not because she doesn’t like baseball, but because she gets tired early) and the dog will probably lay on me.

Comment From CatGuy
On the topic of baseball video games, have you played any? Which was your favourite? Which game had the most realistic player ratings?

Neil Weinberg: Used to play a lot, but haven’t in a couple years. Like MVP way back when, then 2K was okay. Never had PS3, so no The Show

Neil Weinberg: Quick, minute or two break then we’ll go to 430p. Fire off any last questions.

Comment From Marketbabies
Who wins the AL West in 2015?

Neil Weinberg: Rangers

Comment From Theo Barkstein
Your dog for Liberty, Freedom, and a dachshund to be named later. Who says no?

Neil Weinberg: Not sure that’s a fit for either side. Liberty wouldn’t really be happy in my apartment, given what I’ve heard about her size/activity level.

Comment From Marketbabies
I take it you see bounce backs from Choo and Fielder?

Neil Weinberg: Yeah. Raw health should help them a lot. Plus probably a nice smart sign or two

Comment From Mike
Who defines the “routine” defensive plays? And are they player neutral (i.e. is a “routine” defensive play different for Delmon Young than it would be for Jarrod Dyson – assuming they played the same position)?

Neil Weinberg: Based on average player at the position

Comment From Guest
puppy in bulletproof vest — cute photo or disturbing photo?

Neil Weinberg: Super, super, super cute.

Comment From Guest
What does WPA do with defensive indifference steals? They have got to be mostly low leverage, or else why would the defense be indifferent, but somebody has to be assigned credit (or blame) for the play, right?

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, WPA thinks it’s a steal, but they happen only in low leverage spots so it’s basically not important

Comment From Guest
Are you a fan of artistic froth in your lattes?

Neil Weinberg: Don’t drink coffee, but no.

Comment From Jake deBomb
adjusted vs. neutral: war description uses the term park & league neutral, while RC+ back up uses the term park & league adjusted, so I wanted to know if there is a difference.

Neil Weinberg: Same thing. Sorry for the confusion.

Comment From Guest
How do you stay awake?

Comment From portobello
No coffee, no spirits: LDS?

Neil Weinberg: Nope, just don’t have a need or taste for either. I cut out soda/caffeine about 5 years ago, felt a ton better

Comment From Guest
aren’t outs more, not less, valuable?

Neil Weinberg: In a lower run environment, you are more willing to risk the out for a steal because the odds are higher than you won’t score anyway.

Comment From mtsw
My girlfriend loves watching football but hates baseball. How can I pitch the game to her to make it more appealing?

Neil Weinberg: What does she like about football? Is it the action? My wife got into baseball once she understood the nuance of the game.

Comment From Abby
Break up with her mtsw, football is immoral.

Neil Weinberg: This is a strong comment

Comment From Guest
Who is MGL? I’m new to these things but I have most of the other abbreviations figured out.

Neil Weinberg: Mitchell Litchman. He was a co-author of The Book. Abrasive, but very smart baseball researcher

Comment From FIREPLACE??
If you have a male child, would you consider calling him Wein Neilberg?

Neil Weinberg: No. That would be so confusing.

Comment From Guest
I’m struggling to understand this: But the run environment is much lower than it was 5-10 years ago, which is big deal, because the cost of an out is much lower, so you can risk stealing more often than you used to be able to.”

Comment From Player Development Nerd
For Guest: If you score 1 run a game on average, then each out is worth 1/27 of a run. If you score 27 runs a game, then each out is worth 1 run. In a higher-scoring environment, you’re giving up more value for each out.

Neil Weinberg: You get three outs per inning. If you make an out in a low run environment, you are giving up fewer runs because the odds are lower that you would score in that inning.

Comment From Jim
unless bulletproof vests have gotten a lot lighter lately, a bulletproof vest on a puppy would be horrible for the puppy…

Neil Weinberg: The human office is holding his future vest around him. He’s training!

Comment From Marketbabies
Maddon more likely to end up with the Cubs or the Dodgers?

Neil Weinberg: Cubs.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, I need to wrap this up before my computer dies. We’ll do it again next week. Remember Dave and Jeff will be here for Game 7 tonight and you can always grab me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.

Neil Weinberg: Sorry for the questions I didn’t get to answer.