NERD Game Scores for Monday, May 11, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Sabathia (38.0 IP, 96 xFIP-) vs. Colome (10.0 IP, 46 xFIP-)
Over 16.0 innings in 2013, Tampa Bay right-hander Alex Colome produced a strikeout- and walk-rate differential of merely four points. In 23.2 innings last season, he recorded a differential of only three points. Not particularly great, either of those numbers. Over his first 10.0 innings this season, however, Colome has posted strikeout and walk rates of 26.3% an 0.0%, respectively — to which figures the application of subtraction produces a differential of exactly 26.3 points. Considerably bigger, that number. How has he facilitated that improvement? Mostly by means of chance, probably. But also by way of an increased swinging-strike rate, too, probably. Most impressive thus far has been a pitch referred to alternately as a cutter and slider.

Here’s an example of it to Mookie Betts from last week:

And to Xander Bogaerts, from that same game:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

Two Brief Notes
Mike Trout Excellence Status Update
The current iteration of Steamer’s updated end-of-season projections — which combines each player’s WAR figure to date with his rest-of-season projection — suggests that Mike Trout will outperform the next-best hitter (in this case, Paul Goldschmidt) by over 50%, as exhibited here (click to enlarge):

The same thing for ZiPS produces an even more exaggerated outcome for Trout — most immediately over Josh Donaldson, in this case (click to enlarge, once again):

Regarding Today’s Free Game
Today’s free game features Chicago AL at Milwaukee, starts at 7:20pm ET, and can be accessed by means of this hyperlinked text.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet. Note that the calculations both for team and game NERD scores have changed recently to better integrate playoff odds into same. Read more about those changes here, if you’re the sort of person accustomed to making poor life decisions.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Gerrit Cole	PIT	10	6	6	0	6	PHI	Jerome Williams	19:05
Marco Estrada*	TOR	6	7	6	6	6	BAL	Ubaldo Jimenez	19:05
Shelby Miller	ATL	8	3	6	6	6	CIN	Mike Leake	19:10
CC Sabathia	NYA	7	6	7	5	10	TB	Alex Colome	19:10
Jeff Samardzija	CHA	7	1	5	3	6	MIL	Wily Peralta	19:20
Danny Duffy	KC	8	7	6	3	5	TEX	Colby Lewis	20:05
Jacob deGrom	NYN	9	5	7	5	8	CHN	Jon Lester	20:05
Max Scherzer	WAS	10	5	7	6	5	AZ	Josh Collmenter	21:40
Rick Porcello	BOS	7	5	6	6	7	OAK	Scott Kazmir	22:05
Tom Koehler	MIA	4	4	5	8	5	LAN	Zack Greinke	22:10

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.