One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for May 4th


Phil Collins is uncommonly excited for Zack Greinke’s Brewer debut.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Milwaukee at Atlanta, Cleveland at Oakland, and Colorado at Arizona.

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

3. Entirely relevant and timely pop-culture references.

Milwaukee (8) at Atlanta (4) | 19:10 ET
Starting Pitchers
Brewers: Zack Greinke (N/A)
ZiPS Projection: 223.0 IP, 9.20 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9, 2.88 FIP, 71 FIP-

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Braves: Tim Hudson (4)
41.1 IP, 4.35 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, .275 BABIP, 61.2 GB%, 2.7% HR/FB, 3.71 xFIP, 98 xFIP-

What Today Is
Today is Zack Greinke’s first real-live start as a Brewer.

What You’re Feeling
It.

Where You Can Feel It
In the air tonight. Oh Lord. Oh Lord.

An Actual Note About Greinke
In three minor-league rehab appearances, Greinke did this: 10.2 IP, 13 K, 2 BB, 1 HR — i.e. what you’d expect Zack Greinke to do in the minors.

A Note About This Game, Generally
It’s the second game of a doubleheader; therefore, the time is just an approximation.

Cleveland (10) at Oakland (4) | 22:05 ET
Starting Pitchers
Indians: Josh Tomlin (5)
33.0 IP, 4.91 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, .179 BABIP, 40.4 GB%, 13.5% HR/FB, 4.02 xFIP, 100 xFIP-

A’s: Trevor Cahill (7)
38.1 IP, 7.75 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, .264 BABIP, 50.0 GB%, 6.7% HR/FB, 3.11 xFIP, 77 xFIP-

Notes
• If you were to’ve told Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti back in March, “You’ll get six-plus innings of league-average pitching from Josh Tomlin every time he starts,” Antonetti would’ve probably been like, “Awesome.”
• If you were to’ve told Antonetti, “Around, say, May 4th, the Indians will have the highest team WAR (i.e. hitting plus fielding) for every team but the Cardinals,” he’d have probably been like, “That’s excellent what you’re saying, but improbable.”
• If you were to’ve continued, “Actually, I’m not predicting this. I know this. I’m from the future. From May 4th, specifically,” he’d have probably been like, “Please remove yourself from my person.”

Colorado (9) at Arizona (10) | 21:40 ET
Starting Pitchers
Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin (7)
34.0 IP, 6.88 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, .273 BABIP, 60.4 GB%, 17.4% HR/FB, 3.12 xFIP, 82 xFIP-

Diamondbacks: Barry Enright (3)
29.2 IP, 5.46 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, .316 BABIP, 38.0 GB%, 14.3% HR/FB, 4.64 xFIP, 122 xFIP-

Notes
• In his native Venezuela, Jhoulys Chacin’s first name is basically the equivalent of Jim here.
• Strangely, the name Jim in Venezuela isn’t anything like the name Jhoulys in the U.S.
• It’s much more like what Barry is here.
• Barry, as you’ll undoubtedly know, is short for Bareth (short for Fionnbharrth), de Barra, Barrath, Barenth, Barold, Bearrach or Finbarr.
Totally not according to Wikipedia.

Also Playing
These games are likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

18 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Azim
15 years ago

You forgetted the first Brewers-Braves game!

Dave
15 years ago

Typo: you’ve got the tigers facing both the yankees and boston. That’s a rough day 🙂

Jross
15 years ago

How can Morrow only have a 5 pNERD? What is the over/under on his strike outs?

mbrady16
15 years ago
Reply to  Jross

The asterisk means Morrow hasn’t accumulated the minimum innings to qualify for a NERD score yet. That said, he’s a 10. Like Brooklyn Decker.

skippyballer486
15 years ago
Reply to  mbrady16

It seems like there should be some way to approximate a pNERD for players who don’t qualify yet. Why not take their peripherals from the season before, adjust age and whatever else can be adjusted, and add 1 or 2 for the first start of a season because watching a pitcher’s first start is always interesting. Similarly, I think for rookies, the following scale should be used:
top 5 prospect – 10
top 20 prospect – 9
top 50 prospect – 8
top 100 prospect – 7
team top 10 prospect – 6
other rookies – 5

Sitra
15 years ago

Quite a day for the Tigers, playing both the Yankees and the Red Sox at the same time after stealing Ervin Santana without anyone knowing.

Todd
15 years ago

Can’t wait to NERD it up on some Greinke tonight.

herve houchoua
15 years ago

pNERD of the night
……………………….

if you want play monney or ………….peanuts

……………………………………………………….

PINEDA 10 vs cj wilson ( 5 ) : under tendency
GREINKE * wait and see
LINCECUM 9 vs capuano ( 6 ) : w lincecum tendency
DANKS 8 vs blackburn ( 3 ) : under tendancy and w danks
HANSON 8 vs estrada ( 5 ) : under tendancy
CAHILL 7 vs tomlin ( 5 ) : 10 é inning tendancy
CHACIN 7 vs enright ( 3 ) : w chacin tendancy
BECKETT 7 vs SANTANA 7 : under tendancy
WOOD 7 vs a rodriguez ( 5 ) * : over tendancy

……………………………………………………………

the frenchie

do you now ” the savigny lions ” ?
– le site du club est sur google

doug KMember since 2020
15 years ago

It would be fascinating to do another take on the FanGraphs Spring Training Meeting with Antonetti today wouldnt it? Maybe your future May 4th guy could have showed up at the pavillion and spread the news to all. I bet Antonelli would have thought him an annoying heckler and asked for him to be removed.

I mean Antonelli came about as close to admitting the Indians had no chance in 2011 as any GM could do saying things like “Of course I will be disappointed if we dont win this year since any GM is supposed to win every year but we arent worried about this year here we are thinking about the future”.

Good thing he was as vague as that (and at one point caught himself and paused mid sentence just before he admitted his true thoughts about his chances in 2011). Or there would have been some egg on his face from some recordings somewhere on this. I wouldnt be surprised if in some other venue his true expectations were recorded.

Not that any one else could blame him. I mean 20-8? Really? Seriously, that roster without a single MLB proven star other than Choo (who is batting what 241/317/380) taking the AL apart like Godzilla loose in Tokyo?

If the Tribe can even play .500 ball the rest of the way that would be what 87 wins? Unless someone turns around in the division that just might get the Indians into October. And playing the way they did in the 2nd half last season (.475 roughly) should be enough to get them into the pennant race in September the way the other teams in the division look.

Maybe soon someone will need to redo the Indians situational analysis here as at 20-8 this Little Big Horn redo is getting out of hand.

JR
15 years ago

Antonetti

doug KMember since 2020
15 years ago
Reply to  JR

I was 1 for 2 with that name sorry.

herve houchoua
15 years ago

the day after : may 4

HOUSTON 2 @ 3 CIN REDS
……………………………………
WOOD : pNERD7

draw vs a rodriguez * ( pNERD 5)

ip 6………………………..rodriguez ip 5 ( -1 )
h 5 ………………………..rodriguez h 1
er 2………………………..rodriguez er 0
bb 4 so 7…………………rodriguez bb 1 so 3
go (:2)/fo = 4.5 / h5…..rodriguez = 6 / h 1 ( -5 )

total : 0…………………..rodriguez : -6

my result : WOOD W / RODRIGUEZ L

herve houchoua
15 years ago

the day after : may 4

MIN TWINS 3 @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX 2

…………………………………………………
DANKS : pNERD 8

loose vs blackburn ( pNERD 3 )

ip 8……………………blackburn ip 6.2 ( -1 )
h 8…………………….blackburn h 4
er 3……………………blackburn er 1
bb 3 so 0 ( -6 )……..blackburn bb 4 so 1 ( -4 )
go (:2)+fo : 11/h8 ( -3)…….blackburn go/fo : 6.5/h 4 ( -2.5)

total : -9…………………blackburn -7.5

my result : DANKS L / BLACKBURN W

comment : danks ( 0-5 ) ……….projections : 0-8…..why not ?

herve houchoua
15 years ago

the day after : may 4

TEXAS 5 @ SEATTLE 2

……………………………………………….
PINEDA : pNERD 10

loose vs cj wilson ( p NERD 5 )

ip 7 (-2 )………………………………..wilson ip 9
h 7…………………………………………wilson h 6
er 4………………………………………..wilson er 1
bb 0 so 9…………………………………wilson bb 1 so 12
go ( :2)+fo : 5.5/h7……………………wilson go/fo : 8.5/h 6 (-2.5)

total : -2………………………………….wilson : -2.5

my result : diff <1 : PINEDA / DRAW / CJ WILSON

comment : pineda ( 4-2) era 2.58…………….projections ( 6-3) era 2.82

herve houchoua
15 years ago

the day after : may 4

SF GIANTS 2 @ NY METS 0

……………………………………………
LINCECUM :pNERD : 9

Win vs capuano ( pNERD 6)

ip 7…………………………….capuano ip 6.1 (-1)
h 5………………………………capuano h 8 ( -2 )
er 0 …………………………….capuano er 2
bb 3 so 12……………………capuano bb 3 so 5
go(:2)/fo : 5.5/h5 ( -0.5)………capuano go/fo : 9.5/h8 ( -1.5)

total : -0.5…………………………capuano : -4.5

my result : LINCECUM W / CAPUANO L

comment : logical result

herve houchoua
15 years ago

the day after : may 4

MILWAUKEE 3 @ ATLANTA 8

……………………………………
HANSON (pNERD 8 )

w vs estrada ( pNERD 5 )

ip 6…………………………..estrada ip 5.1 (-1)
h 3……………………………estrada h 9 ( -4 )
er 2 ………………………….estrada er 7
bb 2 so 7……………………estrada bb 3 so 5 ( -5 )
go:2/fo : 9/h 3 ( -6)………estrada go/fo : 6.5/h 9

total : -6………………………estrada : -10

my result : HANSON W / ESTRADA L

comment : hanson (4-3 , 2.63 era ) vs hudson ( 4-2 , 2.86 era , pNERD 4 ! )
who is the best ?