Padres Buy Bryan Mitchell From Yankees
The competitive-balance tax isn’t a salary cap, not in the hard and fast sense, but sometimes it acts in the exact same way. As a consequence, you can have big-budget teams in the business of cutting payroll, which can lead to situations like Tuesday’s, where the Padres have come to the aid of the Yankees. The Yankees are trying to stay below the threshold, even after acquiring Giancarlo Stanton, and that almost fully explains this morning’s exchange.
Padres get:
Yankees get:
This is a trade involving three major-league players. And even though I’m not at all convinced Blash lasts the winter on the Yankees’ 40-man roster, there are things about him to like. Ultimately, though, this is really quite simple to understand — the Padres are taking Headley’s $13-million final year, and they’re getting Mitchell for the trouble. The Yankees drop their payroll, and the Padres get a project.
I don’t want to write Blash completely off. I know that he’s 28, and I know that he has a big-league wRC+ of 84, but let me quickly introduce you to Jabari Blash, the hitter.
Blash is a big strong man. He’s beaten the absolute crap out of Triple-A pitching, and he’s always drawn a high rate of walks. The issue, as you could imagine, is that he runs low contact rates, but he doesn’t often chase, and the power is legitimate. Though he might be designated for assignment tomorrow, if not today, you can’t help but think about the things Blash has in common with 2016’s Aaron Judge. Even though Blash doesn’t really fit with the Yankees, it would be fun if he did fit, because it would be fun to see him get a year against major-league pitching. I’d like to see someone find out. Maybe that’s my own pro-power bias.
But I won’t linger on Blash. From the Yankees’ perspective, this is easy. Mitchell had fallen down the depth chart. And although Headley was slotted as a starter, the Yankees always wanted to improve at third base. Headley is neither particularly bad nor particularly good, and he’ll turn 34 years old in May. Even though he’s not a total sunk cost, the 2018 Yankees weren’t going to lean on Headley, so they seized a chance to send him off. The salary now is completely gone, and only Mitchell has been stripped from the ranks to make it happen.
That being said, I like this gamble for the Padres. As interesting as Blash might be, the odds are clearly stacked against him. The team has plenty of short-term financial flexibility, and Headley is going to play. The Padres can use Headley for a little while, even if they have next to no shot at contention in the season ahead. A competent player is a competent player. And Mitchell? Mitchell is the key, and he’s more interesting than his career 4.94 ERA might indicate.
Mitchell is a 26-year-old righty, and he’s appeared in the majors in each of the past four seasons. He has both started and relieved with the Yankees, and his strikeout rate is a mediocre 14%. You’re not going to look at Bryan Mitchell’s major-league track record and come away impressed. The statistical markers are entirely forgettable, and for that reason you can justify the Yankees giving him up.
But let me tell you just a few things. First of all, the Padres have room in their rotation. Mitchell is likely to get a chance to start, and if he works out, he’s got another four years of team control. The Padres’ burden here is their blessing; they can give Mitchell an opportunity. And this past season, Mitchell performed very well in Triple-A. He appeared in 14 games, making 13 starts. There were 185 pitchers in Triple-A who started at least ten games. Out of that pool, Mitchell ranked ninth in K-BB%, fourth in ground-ball rate, and first in FIP. He threw two-thirds of his pitches for strikes. Mitchell, in the high minors, was very good. That didn’t carry over to the Yankees.
And there’s stuff here to back it up. Mitchell isn’t some finesse righty who hangs around the corners and relies on minor-league over-aggressiveness. Mitchell has a high-spin curveball, he has a cutter he throws almost a quarter of the time, and the fastball can hang around the mid-90s. Mitchell’s big-league average fastball velocity sits at 96.2. Even in starting appearances, it hasn’t been a whole lot lower. The arm strength is clearly present. There are the makings of a full repertoire. It just hasn’t fully translated.
You can think of Mitchell as being a 26-year-old prospect. He’s worth giving 100 innings to see if he can put it together. And the comp I can’t get out of my mind is Tyler Chatwood. It’s not that Mitchell and Chatwood are exactly the same, but they do throw similar pitches, and they’ve never been impressive by their major-league peripherals. The Cubs just gave Chatwood $38 million over three years because they think they can get him to throw his pitches more consistently. The Cubs think they can get Chatwood to throw strikes. Mitchell isn’t a dissimilar project, and he doesn’t have Chatwood’s background of two Tommy John surgeries. Chatwood has had more success in the actual majors, but this is the same kind of profile, and Mitchell won’t cost the Padres nearly so much. If you’re a Chatwood fan, you should see this as a promising roll of the dice.
The probability is that Mitchell won’t reach his ceiling. Maybe he ends up a swingman, and maybe he ends up worse. Remember, as much as the Padres are happy to take this chance, the Yankees are going along with it. The Yankees made Mitchell available. But this is a bet on Bryan Mitchell’s tools, and on his recent minor-league record. The stuff should be there for Mitchell to make for a pretty effective major-league starter, and an actual effective major-league starter costs a whole hell of a lot more than one year of Chase Headley. The Padres don’t have a very good rotation. In a way that just worked out in their favor.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Great trade for both teams, especially considering that Mitchell is out of options and was no guarantee to break camp with a bullpen spot.
I really love Preller’s leveraging the Pads’ irrelevance to accumulate talented players that other teams can’t afford to roster.
I don’t really understand why the Pads would do the Yanks a solid like this…for organizational depth? Make those Yanks eat those contracts!
You should read the article
This is bad logic. As Jeff mentioned, Chatwood got 3 years/$38 million and is in a similar situation as Mitchell. Mitchell is under control for 4 years, has starter stuff, and the minor league numbers to show that is *could* be something useful. The Padres got all that for a $13 million starting 3B. You could argue the Padres got a better deal than the Cubs.
This is good baseball decision-making. Sure, the Padres could stick it to the Yankees but the Padres need to get better too. This is how non-competitive teams should manage. If you’re gonna suck and have payroll flexibility, why not mess around with potentially valuable players?
Preller is on the YOLO train and I do not blame him at all.
Preller had all the leverage as the Yankees obviously needed to dump salary. He must be really excited about Bryan Mitchell, or jazzed that Cashman would take the time to text him back! Right idea, disappointing return.
What kind of return did you expect for a $13 millon salary dump?
And it’s not $13M salary dump. You could argue (I won’t) that Headley is actually underpaid based on WAR. At the least though he’s a $10M guy easily.
Two issues:
A) The Yankees didn’t “need” to dump salary, even as they’re certainly glad to have been able to.
B) $13m isn’t a significant enough sum to be worth more than Mitchell.
There are other rebuilding teams with low salary commitments for 2018 who would also be candidates to take the Padres’ side of this trade. The Phillies and White Sox both immediately come to mind.
Dumb questions… Miguel Andujar is likely Headley’s replacement at 3B (frankly I’m confused why he didn’t get more reps last year). But Steamer only projects for 5 games next year.
1) Will steamer update based on depth charts prior to 2018 season (I assume yes)
2) Until then, is it okay to use his .265/.308/.421 slash? Would change if he were projected for more ABs?
I really think this heralds a reunion with the Toddfather as a stopgap 3B and Bird insurance.
It could make sense on a baseball-level, but isn’t Frazier expected to get the same or slightly higher AAV than Headley? Doesn’t make much sense as a move for luxury tax if that’s the case.
God I hope not (as a Yankee fan). Frazier is going to require a multi-year deal, will probably get more than $13M a year, and is not significantly better than Headley. I’m actually concerned about the gaping holes at 3B and 2B right now. With Castro and Headley gone, the addition of Stanton is more than half canceled out.
He didn’t get more of a look because the Yankees don’t believe he’s quite ready, and I doubt that’s changed since last September. After trading for Stanton, I don’t see the Yankees going into 2018 with two rookies in the infield. Gleyber Torres, yes; Andujar, no. There’s another move coming.
Yeah as I understand, they sent Andujar down after his wonderful debut so he could continue getting every day reps at 3B to improve his defense. Also agree they won’t go in with both Andujar at 3B and Torres at 2B. Something like Howie Kendrick could make some sense here, though he makes sense for a bunch of teams.
yeah but we thought the red sox had a plan after trading all their third basemen last offseason too…
Seems like a smart deal for both teams. It is a strange world where the Padres are offering the Yankees “salary relief”, but it not being done out of kindness. Headley is still a solid player, and Mitchell has an arm you dream on but has never been given a long look in the majors because on injuries and other circumstances. High velocity, high spin rate. I like the deal for the Padres, and yes it helps the Yankees clear some salary space to make other moves. A win for both sides.
A more obvious salary dump has never occurred in the long annals of baseball. If Jabari Blash is on the Yankees opening day roster it will challenge Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2016, at odds of 5,000 to 1, as the greatest surprise in sports history. While Headley is only a place holder for a team that is going nowhere, he isn’t an empty uniform and coupled with Mitchell is actually quite a good deal for the Padres. It certainly looks like there is $13M in value there and maybe a lot more. A really good move by Preller.
Yup.
Headley will also be eminently flippable for a lottery ticket if he starts hot, or a contender loses their 3B, as he’ll be just $5m for the rest of the season by the deadline.
Yeah – I could see a team like … the Yankees buying Headley in July.
FWIW, $13 million is about the surplus value for an FV45 pitcher.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/
Whether you think this is a good deal is going to depend largely on whether you think Bryan Mitchell is about an FV45, less than that, or waaaaay less than that.
My first take is that I don’t think he’s worth the bother. Pitchers who walk as much as they strike out don’t really excite me. But Preller must have seen something in Mitchell’s last AAA stint to make him think he can get K’s.
The other factor is that $13m isn’t occurring in a vacuum.
The Padres don’t run a tiny payroll because they’re broke or cheap – they just don’t have any players worth paying big money to.
Much like the Browns and Osweiler, they don’t have anything better to spend their available funds on.
That $13 million also includes Headley, though, who’s averaged about 2 WAR per year over the past 3 years.
This is a salary dump for NY, but Headley’s signed to a market rate contract. It’s not like San Diego is taking on an albatross here. As long as Mitchell is worth more than Blash, the Padres should come out ahead on this one. (And since Blash was worth all of -0.1 WAR last year, Mitchell doesn’t have to clear a terribly high bar here.)
They already had Solarte (Who makes much less). Who would give Headley $13 million/yr if he were a FA?
almost any team that had a hole at third base?
Preller did okay on this. 3rd will be shored up, but $13 million is kinda high for Headley’s output, and Mitchell will just be another question mark to add to their list of question marks in the bullpen and rotation. That being said, Blash is AAAA player and if he hasn’t figured it out now, he never will.
$13m is exactly market value “for Headley’s output” of 1.5-2 WAR, haha.
I guess you’re right. My contention would be that you got virtually the same production from Spangenberg/Schimpf with nowhere near the $13 million dollar price tag. Shoot, maybe Preller really sees something in Mitchell that not many else see.
The other factor you’re not accounting for is that the “$13m price tag” has absolutely zero impact on the Padres’ bottom line, now or in the future.
This deal brings their 2018 commitments up to $58m…and they ran a payroll of $100m as recently as 2016.
I think there’s a decent chance that Headley never plays a game for the Padres. Seems like he could be flipped for a small return to a team like the Angels or maybe Giants depending on other moves this offseason.
If the Giants or Angels were willing to flip a monor prospect for Headley…he’d be a Giant or Angel right now.
Although…eating like $10m of Headley’s contract to get a real prospect in return is EXACTLY the type of thing Preller likes to do.
I think we’d have to erase 2007-2014 for that to be true 🙂
Look at the major and minor league (pre-’17) splits for Blash. He has some value as a LHP killer, he just can’t play against righties.
And if there’s one thing the Yanks are missing, it’s deceptively athletic, big bodied OFs with RH power!
I see a lot of people (not necessarily here) talking about this trade in the context of Headley being a $13M sunk cost, but that’s not really the case. He’s coming off a 2-win season. He’s been worth 6 wins over the last 3 seasons. He’s projected to be worth something like 2 wins. San Diego is paying 13M for a roughly league average player, which is absolutely fine. It might be a bit more than they’d other wise spend on a league average-ish stop gap, but Mitchell is more than enough compensation for whatever that discrepancy is.
Nice move for the Padres.
I wrote it off because who cares if the Padres lose 67 or 68 games? What matters is the guy who might be with the team 2 or 3 years down the line.
In theory, Chase Headley is flippable at the trade deadline. In practice, that also makes it longer to identify useful longer-term pieces. Sounds like a wash to me.
Can you name any potential “useful longer term pieces” whom acquiring Headley “makes it take longer” for the Padres to identity?
Not even being facetious right now. Villanueva, I guess?
I get what you mean but this kind of pure-tanking rationale never really works out well for teams or their fans. The product on the field still matters. You have to send someone out there to play the games, it’s nicer for everyone if they can win once in a while, give the kids someone to root for, sell a few jerseys, even in a down year.
@CLS and RMHF: I’m not thinking about anyone that’s a star. I’m thinking to see whether someone like Spangenberg, Asuaje, or Villaneuva can be a 1-2 WAR piece just like Headley is. You figure out a guy with team control who might be a solid asset for you in the medium term, that’s worth something.
And they already had Solarte who duplicates Headley’s production pretty well, although maybe they’ll try and trade him now.
My example of what not to do is what the Phillies did last year, who loaded up on guys they thought they could flip at the deadline like Saunders and Kendrick, preventing them from taking a good look at guys like Altherr and Quinn (although they got a good look at them anyway).
I’m not suggesting tanking, but I do think that the impact of Chase Headley is going to have a minimal effect on the on-field product and it’s worth it to see what you already have.
I also should mention I don’t think this move hurts the Padres in any substantial way…I mean, it’s just not a big deal by itself. But if they do this at a few more position then I would start to get worried.
“whether someone like Spangenberg, Asuaje, or Villaneuva can be a 1-2 WAR piece”
I would totally buy this argument, if I weren’t pretty sure already that all those specific guys kind of suck and aren’t worth giving too many more chances. And I suspect the Padres front office just signaled its agreement.
Then I guess just keep Solarte, who provides similar value and is way less expensive? I just don’t see the upside in Headley. I guess I’m less convinced that every single one of them sucks, but I would agree that the odds any single one of them makes it is below average.
This is why I think Mitchell is really the key here. Headley doesn’t really help the team now or in the future.
I’m reading in an interview that Preller has already discussed moving Headley before the season begins. That would seem to be the best for all parties involved. Probably he’ll go to whoever wants a 3rd baseman but doesn’t want to pony up for Moustakas or Frazier.
This doesn’t stop them from keeping Solarte, who can play below average defense at second just as easily as he can at third, haha.
It also lets them either force their legion of replacement level 26/27 year old infielders to earn playing time, or eat a ton of Chase’s contract (since they have nothing better to spent the money on) and make him a perfect stopgap for a budget-conscious contender.
It’s a good deal for San Diego. But for the yankees, you can’t just look at it as $13M alone. The Yankees had the $13M. What they don’t have is the cap space. Just the first dollar over is incredibly expensive. They need room, especially if they have a mid-season injury that has to be filled.
It’s pretty easy to see why the Padres would do this. The really interesting part is the Yankees’ side. They could have really used Headley; as it stands now, they’re taking a big risk at 3B, 1B, and 2B. The salary dump is nice, but they could have moved an OF to free up space for that starter they need (or moved a different OF for a cheap one). That’s why I think this trade is the prelude to another one, specifically for Machado.
Which OF should they have moved?
Ellsbury refuses to leave, Hicks is their dirt cheap starting CF, and Gardner’s the unofficial captain and implicit 4th “starting OF” to be rotated through DH with Judge and Stanton.
There’s also the fact that Headley is probably pretty popular in San Diego and familiar with Petco. That’s gotta count for something, right?
As a Yankee fan I was always high on Mitchell, but even though his fastball velocity is very good, he doesn’t nearly spin his fastball enough to get whiffs on it. He always had a good curveball, but he has not been able to develop the vital third pitch. Anyhow I hope me finds a role for himself in San Diego.