Winter Meetings Live Blog, Day 2

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from Orlando, friends. My phone screen is broken, hopefully I’m not stuck here forever as a result. But hey, baseball time.

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, had some wifi trouble but working now…

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Well, sorta

12:08
Mike Stanton: What prospects would the Sox have to include to bring back Machado? Seems like a perfect match with Devers at third, with a potential move to first in the coming years, no?

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think they have the horses for that. System is thin.

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: You could make an argument that Flores was their best guy. I can’t see teams centering a package around Groome unless they think he’s really grown up. Already a lot of risk acquiring a pitcher as a centerpiece, let alone you don’t have sufficient makeup reports on.

12:10
Joe: Thoughts on Ozuna to the Indians? Cleveland could send Zimmer+Greg Allen and more if necessary. Have to think Miami would be intrigued

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m asking for Mejia to start, not Zimmer. And probably working on sifting through Cleveland’s very young latin american group for the best of them, whether it’s Aaron Bracho, Marco Gonzalez or someone else, I don’t personally know. Cleveland didn’t have a traditional instructs and I didn’t get a look at those guys.

12:12
Xolo: How would you distribute the Padres minor league shortstops around the different levels? Could Arias go to High-A?

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d like to see Rondon in the big leagues, Guerra and Urias at El Paso, Tatis and Giron at San Antonio, Cordoba at Hi-A, Arias, Lopez and Almanzar start at Fort Wayne while Barley is in extended and goes to Tri-City in the summer

12:17
Zonk: Chase Headley for Jabari Blash looks like a pure salary dump by the Yankees….what do you think their plan is for 3B/2B?  I know Gleyber figures in there somewhere

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: As soon as he’s ready, yeah. I saw him last summer before he got hurt and didn’t think he was, not defensively anyway. I think it speaks to their confidence in some combination of Estrada, Wade and Andujar immediately, or at least as major role players off the bench.

12:18
Q-Ball: Why would the Padres want Chase Headley back?  I suppose they need a 3B, but what’s the point?

12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Think the deal was more about Mitchell for them. Headley clearly isn’t a long term solution. They took his contract on in order to get someone they think has a big league arm. Mitchell is 94-97 with a plus curveball, just hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity in New York.

12:21
CamdenWarehouse: Is this the week when Carson’s sangria bets are paid?

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Actually, yeah. I think we’re recording a pod this afternoon.

12:21
Baseball fan: Why did the marlins feel the need to tear everything down? Seemed like they had a solid core of players and with the right moves could have been relevant. Was it purely a money issue?

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: I agree, and yes.

12:21
Joe: Manny Machado. Say it ain’t so! Or say it is? I dunno, as an Orioles fan what should I want?

12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Well he has one year left, right? Do you think they’re going to contend this season or have an immediate path to contention? I’m skeptical, but Baltimore has outperformed preseason projections multiple times in recent years. But if you don’t think you can compete with New York or Boston and think Tampa is talented enough to be a third hurdle (I do) then you need to at least consider moving Manny while you can. They won’t be able to retain him once he hits free agency.

12:23
Legeisc: Which combo has the most WAR in 2018, Stanton/Judge or the best 2 of Altuve, Springer, and Correa?

12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll take the Houston guys.

12:24
…. Chris: Soooo … Gleybar at 3B now?  And the Yankees get back … an outfielder?  Am I … confused?

12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: I seriously doubt Blash makes the roster.

12:24
Daniel: Marcell Ozuna for Victor Robles who says no?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: I actually like that as a foundation for the deal, but if I’m Washington I do whatever I can to avoid parting with Robles. But he’d be a great get for Miami. He’s big-league ready now.

12:25
zippy: Gordon, Jay, and Granite for 2 years of Cole – Do you make that trade if you’re the Twins or try to sub out something for a lesser prospect(s)?

12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t be confident in Jay’s ability to stay healthy and would be asking for Gonsalves instead.

12:28
Eric A Longenhagen: And I prefer Wade to Granite, but if Pittsburgh thinks Granite plays a killer CF then that makes sense. He could play CF until Meadows shows he’s healthy and ready and then move into a 4th OF role.

12:28
zippy: How many innings does it take for the pitch values to be accurate. For instance, Aaron Slegers got a sip of coffee and his pitch values are better than one might expect. Anything to those ratings?

12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure when they stabilize but, for me, pitch value and pitch quality are two different things. Pitch value impacted by things like sequencing and deception.

12:30
Coz: Who had the most fun last night?

12:30
Eric A Longenhagen: I think I was the last one awake but my body is still on AZ time.

12:30
Giants fan: Would Aramis Garcia and Joan Gregorio be enough for McCutchen? Or would it have to be Shaw or Beede and Garcia?

12:32
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not a big Garcia fan, think he’s a fringe prospect. Beede looked like a #4/5 in the Fall League, Shaw got hurt and is blocked by your corner OFs and Bell….not sure there’s a fit here unless Pittsburgh is interested in Heliot Ramos and other younger guys. The advanced prospects in SF’s system are very meh.

12:32
Charlie: If a team is just looking for a 4th OF is Victor Reyes worth a look in Rule 5?

12:36
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so. He had a good fall league on paper and he can really run but I’m very skeptical about his ability to hit. Might rather have Tocci, Hanneman, Ian Miller…

12:38
DDP: Long term thoughts on Kevin Maitan? If his body is kept in check, can he stay at ss? Or is a move to 3b/2b more likely?

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not about keeping it in check anymore, it’s about getting it back to a place where he can play something other than 1B. He was always likely to move to 3B, even when his stock was at peak.

12:39
beefy: Are the Cubs going to trade for another starter if they don’t get Cobb?

12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think they make a move for a starter.

12:40
Bryce Harper: Thoughts on a Profar-Harvey swap? Is it worth it for the Mets to add a little more to get it done?

12:41
Eric A Longenhagen: It makes sense for NYM but I’m not sure Harvey is acquirable. Not that NYM wouldn’t love to rid themselves of him, but if I were running a team I wouldn’t be all that interested.

12:42
YDG: what has been your personal favorite moment of the winter meetings so far?

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: I got in late last night so, for now, it’s this morning’s coffee. Which I stole from a timeshare seminar occurring in the hotel.

12:43
Terry’s Sarape: Will the Mariners be able to spend their international money?  if so, how will they distribute it?  anything else coming from Japan?  Cuba?

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: They need to acquire intelligence about who might become eligible between now and June 15 and then go after whoever they think is the best guy. Maybe that’s Julio Pablo Martinez (who I like) or Raimfer Salinas or Antonio Cabello (who I think remain unsigned from this year’s period) or maybe Yoelkis Cespedes tries to leave? Gotta find somewhere to spend it.

12:46
Capt’n Canada: Anyone who thinks the yankees are attaching a top prospect to unload Ellsbury, is not right in the head. The yankees have deep pockets, and Ellsbury is a 2 WAR player, at 3 years, 34 mil, that’s pretty much what he would get on the open market.

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Well, he’s not a 2 WAR player for the Yankees because of his role. They might need to add someone to sweeten a deal but I agree with you that it won’t be a top guy in their system.

12:47
Troy O’Leary: Is there still hope for Henry Owens?

12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, but you have to do a lot of mental gymnastics to say so. He was 88-91 in the fall league, changeup is still plus. He began working with a lower arm slot mid-season so if you think he needs more time to get a feel for it (and start throwing strikes when he does) then yeah, he could be something. But he’s never ever thrown strikes.

12:49
Nick: Do you think there are more guys that can play an average shortstop in MLB or that can hit 30 homers?

12:50
Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, though ‘average shortstop’ is changing because of defensive positioning.

12:51
Anthony: Who’s the best prospect you see being traded this winter?

12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: I can see scenarios where either Mejia or Robles get moved. After that…Verdugo? Clint Frazier?

12:52
stl cardinals: “We are looking for a significant impact player”.
“We lost our first choice, so we’re looking at other options.”
“The cost of the other options is out of our comfort zone.”
“We really like the players we have.”

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: I think they line up too well with Miami for something not to get done there. They have what Miami covets in near-ready talent and St. Louis has the depth to make a bigger deal without it destroying the farm.

12:54
Tom: Does Yefri del Rosario land in your top 100? Should he be considered above Kevin Maitan

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: No to the first question, the second one is tough. Probably still behind Maitan if you view Maitan with his amateur reports as context. In front of Maitan if you view pro reports in a vacuum.

12:55
Matt: What are your thoughts on Gohara and could he potentially line up a deal with C Frazier?

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Unless the new regime has serious concerns about Gohara’s body/off-field stuff, etc. I can’t see them trading him in lieu of trading a less-proven arm, like one of the guys at Double-A.

12:57
osick87: Have you stolen the Baseball wizard yet

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s nailed down pretty good.

12:57
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: How’d you break your phone?

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: Dropped it in the car. Lie, just on the carpet of the car. And it’s toast. At least it looks that way.

12:58
Anthony: So, on Dee Gordon: how much can outfielders improve their tracking ability with reps? Is it something inherently instinctive, or do players tend to improve, even as professionals already, at reads off the bat, etc.?

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the player. Carl Crawford could never get a feel for reading the ball off the bat in center field. Billy Hamilton picked it up pretty quickly. I give Dee a good chance to get it. He worked to become as good as he is at 2B –he was a pretty erratic defender while he was with the Dodgers — and I think he’ll do that as he transitions to CF.

1:00
Anthony: Any more optimistic than you were last year about Barreto staying on the dirt?

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: No

1:01
E: I don’t have a solution but this whole Marlin’s situation is an embarrassment for baseball right? I know baseball is ultimately a business but they should have to give some façade of caring about more than money, no?

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Most rhetoric about ‘competitive balance’ and the like is just bs public relations speak to distract fans from this very fact. It’s why, when I was a stupid kid, I thought Scott Boras was ruining baseball and that players were greedy. I rooted for laundry. It’s an effective tactic. Maybe this Marlins business will be a net positive when everyone wakes up and realizes their emotions are often being taken advantage of for someone’s financial gain.

1:04
LegallyEagle: Not say the Dodgers are skimping on spending, but it seems the Dodgers prefer to keep young talent (cheap contract) versus trading said talent to open cap space to bring in proven stars. You prefer one approach > other?

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I think you need to do a bit of both, but your priorities should be colored by where you are on the competitive spectrum. For LAD that means chasing a ring first. And I’d have enough faith in my amateur scouting staff to move some prospects (they could have easily trumped the NYY offer for Stanton) without worrying about having a barren system.

1:07
Jobu: Passan reports that Padres are looking for a SS, and lists the Cubs as a potential match.  Do the Pads have enough to land Russell or Baez?  Could Lamet + Hand + prospect do it, or would pulling in a 3rd team be necessary?

1:10
Eric A Longenhagen: SD has enough in the system to make a deal on their own. The Cubs probably do have to decide between Javy and Russell at some point, but it doesn’t have to be now. They both hit free agency in, like 2022?

1:10
Jason: Lucius Fox, top 50 prospect in baseball as a SS in 2 years, yes or no?

1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: I like Fox a lot but he’d probably have to show that there’s more pop in there to be a top 50 overall guy.

1:12
John: When will things actually get started in Orlando? Sure, the Headley trade happened but when will the flurry of deals occur? I have seen some reporters say it has been dead down there so far. Did the timing of the Stanton and Ohtani deals push back teams’ plans?

1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, it’s quiet here. I do think the Stanton situation stifled things a bit. Not Ohtani, that was happening independent of most of the WM activity. I think this year’s Rule 5 has enough interesting relief arms that the relief market might not start moving until after Thursday, especially since Neshek deal set a pretty high bar for relief contracts. If you think there’s a 7th or 8th innings guy in the Rule 5, don’t you wait to see if you can get one before you go signing relievers in their late-30s to multi-year deals?

1:14
Silly Beane: Aren’t the Giants a great fit for Machado?  Hole at 3B, can offer a boffo extension or re-sign him.  But their farm is barren

1:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Manny Machado is a great fit for any team.

1:15
Matt Harvey: Is it a good idea to trade me now when my value is the lowest?

1:15
Eric A Longenhagen: You’re maybe not such a treat to be around

1:17
Cash Man: Does trading for Stanton hurt the NYY chances of signing Bryce Harper in 2019?

1:17
Eric A Longenhagen: People in baseball think Harper stays in DC

1:19
Chel: Are there actually “rumors” about trades in the WM? What  I mean is, do you get to see enhanced activity and chatting right about now about the Yankees-San Diego trade?

1:20
Eric A Longenhagen: You have to be pretty observant in the lobby to see anything happening in real time, and even then it more frequently involves agents than two teams talking. Most decision-makers are smart enough to take it to a room or somewhere private. The feeling in the hotel when something big happens in electric, and sometimes word of a deal rushes through via word of mouth before it actually gets confirmed and reported, but it’s not for every deal.

1:21
LegallyEagle: Could you clarify “traditional instruct” versus “non-traditional instruct” for Latin American players?

1:22
Eric A Longenhagen: Traditional instructional league involves scrimmaging against players from other teams. Clubs are moving away from that and toward more isolated physical and mental development away from the field.

1:23
Babe Lincoln: Do the Mets have the non-Rosario horses to get anyone with any real surplus value?

1:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe two or three (Andres Gimenez, some teams like Nido and Alonso) but Alderson himself said they’re not exactly teeming with prospects.

1:25
Dougie: Does J.B. Woodman have MLB starter upside? Or is more of a 4th/5th outfielder kind of guy?

1:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Needs to make more contact to even reach Double-A

1:25
ATCQ: Any thoughts on Bryan Mitchell, who was just traded to SDP?  Will there be a post on this?

1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s 94-97 without much movement, plus curveball, fringey cutter. I think he’s a nice bullpen arm but maybe he gets a shot in an expanded role in SD.

1:26
LudeBurger: Hi Eric, fangraphs’ resident ichthyologist here. I’m getting my piranhas today!!!

1:29
Eric A Longenhagen: Congrats. My wife likes piranhas. I’m more of a wobegong guy.

1:30
John: Give a very anxious person some  hope that one of seven interviews will result in a hobby

1:30
Eric A Longenhagen: You’re here putting yourself out there, you’ve already done more than 99% of people are willing to do.

1:31
Gary: What dollar value would you put on Vlad Jr. right now?

1:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry, wifi blows

1:44
Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t put a dollar value on the kid’s head. I guess on the open market he’d garner roughly what Moncada did, penalties and all.

1:44
Biff Bob: Hi Eric:  Is Ben Gamel worth viewing as a starting outfielder?  He seems to be fringe with bat, defense, and pretty modest with power.  Cam Perkins is insurance.  Why wouldn’t the Mariners invest in left field?

1:44
Eric A Longenhagen: I like Gamel as a bench OF or platoon bat but not an everyday corner OF.

1:44
trades r fun: what kind of things do you guys do at the winter meetings when you’re not writing/working?

1:45
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll go from this to combing the hotel for people to talk to about prospects to writing about prospects. That’s kind of it for me, though the middle part might involve an adult beverage.

1:45
Daniel: Who has a higher trade value right now, Marcell Ozuna or Domingo Santana?

1:45
Eric A Longenhagen: Ozuna.

1:46
Anthony: Is Madrigal the best college position player in this year’s class for you? How does he compare to someone like Eierman, who seems to have more of a prototypical build on paper?

1:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Right now he is, but if Eierman convinces you he can play SS then he probably moves ahead of Madrigal because Eierman has more pop.

1:46
Anthony: Have you heard anything on Chris Martin’s time in Japan? He just got a two-year deal with Texas

1:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Have nothing new on him, just what I have prviously written

1:47
Daniel: If Ozuna goes to DC, who plays CF Ozuna or Eaton?

1:47
Eric A Longenhagen: I think Eaton is the better defender but if you want to keep him healthy maybe he moves to a corner.

1:47
Biff Bob: Marco Gonzalez of the Mariners:  was his prospect star higher when he was drafted out of Gonzaga?  Did you ever have him with a higher ceiling than he seems to have now?

1:49
Capt’n Canada: Speaking of Int’l money, the yankees still have 3.5 mil to spend. What do you think they do with it?

1:50
Eric A Longenhagen: On Marco: Has always projected as a back of the rotation guy, sometimes command/changeup guys develop elite command and become more than that.

1:50
Eric A Longenhagen: On NYY Int’l: They’ve been connected to the aforementioned Salinas but haven’t officially signed him for reasons I’m not aware of.

1:50
Biff Bob: Braden Bishop and Ian Miller were really very good in AA for the Mariners last year.  Miller fell on his face in AAA.  Both are fast.  Bishop might be a better CF.  What do you think of them?  Will they hit enough?

1:51
Eric A Longenhagen: I give Bishop a better chance to hit because he’s more a more physical player. Miller is very undersized. Bishop is a 7 in CF for me.

1:52
Ryan: If it were your call, which of Gillaspie, Palka, or Mike Ford would you prefer to give a mlb shot as a DH/1B next season?

1:53
Eric A Longenhagen: Palka

1:54
mike: Would D.Santana, Burnes, and Erceg be enough for Archer? I feel like this would be enough but….your thoughts?

1:54
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d do that, yeah.

1:54
Cmon: Can we get someone who talks about actually trade rumors and signings instead of prospects please

1:56
Kretin: Is a 6 man rotation for the Angels the best thing for their starters? Will the extra off day interfere with routine or can starters adapt pretty well?

1:56
Eric A Longenhagen: This is regularly scheduled chat time, Cmon. I’m answering what I’ve got in the queue.

1:58
Eric A Longenhagen: Part of me is intrigued by the idea of a 6-man rotation but I think for LAA to compete they need as much Ohtani as they can get, not approx 20% fewer starters

1:58
Jonathan: Luis Medina has been getting a ton of hype this off-season, and I half-expected him to be part of the Stanton trade.  Is it a rational point of view to suggest he’s more valuable than Jorge Guzman?

1:59
Eric A Longenhagen: Those two are fairly close to one another, not irrational to prefer one over the other.

1:59
Matt: Just you today, or is anyone else tagging in at some point?

1:59
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t see anyone else around right now but I imagine at some point there will be relief

2:00
Biff Bob: Are spin rates independent of velocity a tool that doesn’t get valued the same way other skills do?  Should they?

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: They’re correlated so not totally separate, but teams are weighing it more heavily as part of the eval when they have that data.

2:01
salty fan : Obviously the general consensus is that Jeter hasn’t handled the Stanton situation well. Do you see some endgame to his early actions or is it more just inexperience?

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Clearly they have a need to cut costs immediately and try to build from within, and that’s the endgame. But should an ownership group that aims to do that be allowed to won a team? That’s where my  issue with the situation lies. Mike Baumann wrote about it well over at the Ringer.

2:03
Braves Fan : Would it be wise to put Flowers on the market? What would he return

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I would. One year left on that deal, coming off a huge season. Could command something just shy of what Lucroy did in 2016 if a team think he’s the missing piece of a playoff puzzle.

2:04
Yandy: What’s your outlook on Yandy Diaz?  It appears Cleveland plans to start him at 3B next season.

2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: I continue to have him projected as a utility man unless a change is made to the path of his swing.

2:06
Christian: What would you project for Chance Adams if he started for the full year this year?

2:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Something like what German Marquez did this past season

2:08
Roughneck Odor: If you see an item like “Phillies interested in Arrieta,” how likely this was placed by an agent to stir interest?

2:09
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think it’s untrue but it is convenient that one of the teams with the most money to spend has shown cursory interest in your client.

2:09
zippy: I recently saw a 2019 ETA on Royce Lewis. Is it crazy to hope he can follow the Machado/Trout route?

2:10
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s obviously not reasonable to expect him to be THAT good, but I do think there’s a chance he gets there quickly, yeah.

2:11
gump: Why do some teams (Yankees, Astros, Rays) have 4 rookie level affiliates, while others only have 2? If it’s a budget thing, why do the Rays do it? If it’s a saber tool to increase playing time, why haven’t the A’s/Red Sox done it?

2:13
Eric A Longenhagen: If you had a big, recent international class, you need somewhere to put all of those guys. The teams you cited have had those. Generally, I do think casting a wider developmental net in the minors is a good idea and Tampa might think the investment in another low-level minor league club is ultimately worth the return while Boston would just rather allocate that money to the big league roster directly. Player valuation is pretty uniform, team to team. Player evaluation and, especially, development, still varies club to club.

2:14
YKnotDisco?!: Do you think Embiid’s skill-set eventually tops Cousins’?

2:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

2:14
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: I can’t help but think the FG contingent at the WM is akin to the kids from Animal House.

2:15
Eric A Longenhagen: But they’re the dumb frat….

2:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d say Revenge of the Nerds as a knee-jerk pick but that movie has NOT aged well.

2:15
Didi GreGlorious: Teams that got stuck with International money to spend Have to spend it before July or it just goes away right? They cant use it on domestic players or roll it over?

2:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Correct. June 15th is the cutoff, no rollover.

2:17
WillC468: If Robles is MLB ready now, who has better longer term value? Robles or Ozuna?  If Robles, then why trade him for Ozuna?  Why not just play Robles?

2:18
Eric A Longenhagen: big league ready does not equal big league peak. Robles’ peak is probably close to what Ozuna already is.

2:19
Josh R: Highest chance at real 2018 Major League value:  Brandon Woodruff, Sandy Alcantara, Tyler Mahle, Mitch Keller?

2:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Woodruff and Mahle, then the other two

2:20
A Random Dude: Cubs as one of the favorites to land Cobb? Thoughts on a trade for Archer centered around Schwarber and/or Russell? Odds they go for both? Since they probably need to move Russell or Baez, I’d keep Baez’s defense/positional flexibility and seems like the time to go after Archer.

2:20
Eric A Longenhagen: I think Cobb more likely than Archer for Cubs.

2:30
Eric A Longenhagen: You’re all getting Eno momentarily…

2:36
Eno Sarris: heyoooooo

2:36
Phan: ENO!!!

2:36
I am the Walrus: Eno, better career?  Moncada or Jimenez?

2:37
Eno Sarris: Thought De’Angelo for a second and was like Yoan easily, but I’ll take Eloy actually. I’m a little biased against the swing and miss.

2:37
Joe M.: Eno, do you think it would be wise for the Cards to trade for Machado knowing he isn’t likely to sign an extension in St. Louis?

2:37
Eno Sarris: Yeah, I mean, your’e going to give up Flaherty and… Reyes? naw you can’t do that. Even if it is hard to get stars to go there.

2:37
alpha309: Is it just me, or do these Winter Meetings have a little less volume in terms of news than normal?

2:39
Eno Sarris: It is not just you. Hopefully part of the good is that the silly stupid rumor is dying a bit. But there’s a slow build here that seems slower than usual. Is it Ohtani and Stanton’s fault? Maybe. As much as they were independent things and only concerned a few teams, look at how the Yankees are suddenly in every rumor now once they made their first big move.

2:40
Avila: It seems to be the consensus that the Yankees wont include Frazier/Torres with Ellsbury to dump salary.  Would they do something like Frazier/Torres/Ellsbury for Fulmer?

2:40
Eno Sarris: I dreamt up a Fulmer trade, should be publishing any moment.

2:40
Kristaps: Francisco Mejia – Does he start 2018 in the minors or Cleveland’s everyday catcher? Is he trade bait?

2:40
Eno Sarris: Third base, apparently, because they like their two guys. Weird.

2:40
Alex: ENO: help me out. Keep forever league 6×5 (OPS).  Kershaw, Votto, Donaldson, Jose Ramirez, Hoskins and Goldschmidt.   Have to throw one back.

2:40
Eno Sarris: Dang dude. Guess it’s Rhys.

2:41
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Eno, the Rays traded a no-name minor leaguer for Schimpf. Hot takes for a lukewarm stove?

2:41
Eno Sarris: Over under on how many times he hits the catwalks? Guess it really depends on how much he plays.

2:41
Adam: Odds NYY shedding Headley was a precursor to some other trade/signing, vs just opening a spot for Andujar?

2:42
Eno Sarris: Money. They have $30 million now. I bet they sign a pitcher instead of trading for Fulmer, actually. Could trade for Kinsler, sign a pitcher.

2:42
Rhys’s Phys’s: What do you think is the Giants’ biggest move this winter, Eno?

2:42
Eno Sarris: A lack of moves. I think they want to stay under the threshold, which means they have like $10m to spend.

2:43
Eno Sarris: If that. They at $191 right now with benefits according to cots.

2:43
Babe Lincoln: It’s quiet.  Too quiet…..

2:43
Eno Sarris: SOMETHING PLEASE HAPPEN

2:43
Jstodola : Who do you predict to hit more home runs: Judge or Stanton next year?

2:43
Eno Sarris: Judge. Health?

2:45
George Brett: What’s the highest career WAR you’ve seen tipsy at the WM? No name, just a number

2:45
Eno Sarris: 2.5

2:46
Tony P: Serious question- why is it hard to get stars in STL? Maybe not exposelike NYY or LAD or CHC, but they are on national TV all the time

2:46
Eno Sarris: Maybe an appraisal of the city? Stanton put bigger cities on his list.

2:47
Eno Sarris: I haven’t hung out a lot in St. Louis so I can’t speak on that personally.

2:47
Scott: Any teams you think of as a decent fit for Machado? Willing to part with 2 controllable pitchers, and in need of SS/3B?

2:47
Eno Sarris: Oh good lord the Yankees

2:47
Hannah Hochevar: Are you and Dave gonna cage match over Lance Lynn? I realize he’s not a name that seems cage-match-worthy, but this is a slim FA class…

2:47
Eno Sarris: I’ve lost most of my cage matches with Dave but I do like Lynn better than he does, I noticed that.

2:48
Eno Sarris: Dude can mix his fastballs, and we have research that suggests mixing fastballs is good. Possible improving change, decent cutter, some upside in fiddling with the pitch mix, command better a year away from TJ…

2:48
Town brewery : What’s the best cheese with chorizo

2:49
Eno Sarris: Something dry and easy like a cotija?

2:49
Corey Patterson: Odds Jesse Winker opens the season as leadoff hitter for the Reds?

2:49
Eno Sarris: high.

2:49
Hannah Hochevar: Liked the deep dive on Mike Fiers on the pod. Clearly they needed someone to fill the K/HR void left by letting Anibal Sanchez go.

2:49
Eno Sarris: HEYO

2:49
Biff Bob Ertz: Mariners deal Sam Carlson and international money to Giants for all of Cueto’s contract.  Giants would say no, right?

2:50
Eno Sarris: A Cueto cash dump is actually not impossible to dream up. Giants at a real crossroads. Felt like they might want to stay under the threshold in the suite yesterday.

2:51
Nelson: Why does everyone hate the thought of signing Hosmer but OK with Moustakas? Whats the Diff?

2:52
Eno Sarris: One guy hits fly balls and the other sees his value oscillate based on ground ball BABIP? One guy plays a defensive position that matters more? And that guy looks like he’ll cost less?

2:54
KW: Cobb has basically confessed his undying love for Jim Hickey and his desire to go to the Cubs. But am I crazy to think the Yankees are going to top the Cubs offer after moving Headley’s cap hit and grab him?

2:55
Eno Sarris: I’m nervous about Cobb myself. Changeup never came back and that used to be his jam. he’s in play everywhere, though, because he made that fastball/curve combo work I guess.

2:55
bob: What’s your suggestion for addressing the problem of finding old beer on the shelves?  I tend to check dates, but sometimes get lazy and often get back home to find the beer I just purchased is 10-months old.  I know that some beers are fine and may even get better with age, but this was an Allagash Hoppy Table Beer, which the website suggests consuming withing 6 months.

2:56
Eno Sarris: Oh a beer like that you really want to have in the first three months even. I’m hoping that more and more breweries will have better born on dating in the near future. Make it easy on us!

2:56
Matt: I think most athletes are just offended at what St Louis calls “pizza”

2:56
JJ: Stanton put the final four from last year’s playoffs on his list … Had nothing to do personally with STL/SF IMO.

2:57
Eno Sarris: Yeah that’s a good point. Sabean mention ‘playoff teams.’

2:57
Eno-tional Hardcore: Should more non-contender’s buy up good bullpen arms with the aim of trading them for prospects at the deadline? I see the Phils are interested in Addison Reed and already signed Neshak. Seems like a decent way to buy prospects.

2:58
Eno Sarris: It won’t get you the top top prospects but it is a good way to put a toe in the water for this year and try to be a little competitive, but also buy pieces that are easy to sell if you’re not. Billy Beane been doing it.

2:58
Josh Nelson: What is your favorite version of Speedway Stout? I visited AleSmith this weekend (Sweet Tony Gwynn museum!) and tried the apple Speedway Stout. Good stuff.

2:58
Eno Sarris: Vietnamese Coffee. soooooooooooo creamy

2:58
Soxtober 2020: How much do you hate the nickname “AviChado” for the 2018 3-4 hitters for the Sox, Avi Garcia and Manny Machado?

2:58
Eno Sarris: A lot

2:59
Capt’n Canada: Moustakas now makes sense to Yankees???

2:59
Eno Sarris: Yup. Any infielder and starter combo is on the table, $30m to spend, still leaves them $5m for in-season trade without going over.

2:59
Nerdman: Matlab, Mathematica, or R?

2:59
Eno Sarris: “What are things I should learn how to use for $500, Alex?”

2:59
Chalupa Batman: Eno, is there anything you know of that could/would possibly be done about the Mets ownership situation? Having that poorly-run of a franchise in the NY market cannot be good for baseball, right?

3:01
Eno Sarris: The only time a group has been removed, really, was when Frank McCourt lost the dodgers, right? Oh and dude with the Rangers. So in both cases, money troubles. Unfortunately, the Wilpons seem to have weathered the biggest storms they were facing?

3:01
Babe Lincoln: Mickey Callaway talking analytics at WM right now.  No FG mention yet, but this stuff starting to get mainstream….

3:01
Eno Sarris: Dammit. When I was over there, it was boring talk.

3:01
Nelson: Find that Jai Alai yet?

3:02
Eno Sarris: Definitely. Had some Crooked Can, too. And some Due South. But the Crooked Can might have been my favorite.

3:02
John: Also nobody has talked about this, but as an alert Moustakas’ defensive numbers at third base have been getting worse and worse for years now, and he’ll probably move to 1B before Year 2. Teams are probably baking that into a guy that has only had 1 year above 120 wRC+. Would argue he’s also overrated, like Hosmer because he hit 38 homers.

3:03
Eno Sarris: I don’t think he’s that close to going to first. I wouldn’t take this year’s ratings as a sign that he can’t do it yet. He’s been a positive at the position for a long time, and has held steady.

3:03
Chalupa Batman: What do you think the Mets should do with Gsellman? Keep and start, keep and convert to multi-inning reliever, or trade? I’ll hang up and listen

3:05
Eno Sarris: There was a little bit of hope with his changeup in the second half, one of a handful of changeups that improved. I’d stretch him. and then if it’s the same stuff, he’s great for that 100 inning middle inning guy.

3:05
Wut: Alex Cobb abandoned his change-up and never throws high fastballs. Jim Hickey is known for preaching both those things. Cobb will go where he gets the most money. The Cubs won’t get a discount.

3:06
Eno Sarris: I agree in certain respects, but also heard that Hickey thinks that he can get the changeup back and only abandoned it in-season because the results weren’t there. Whatever that’s worth.

3:06
Fair line: I’m pleased with it of course, but why do the teams welcome the media to Winter Meetings? Wouldn’t it be more conducive to getting shit done without every reporter huddled around every rumor-spinning agent? Or does the market work better with the coverage?

3:07
Eno Sarris: I think it’s actually a trade show. MLBPR needs to have everyone in one place for managers and announcements and the like. There’s an actual trade show. The Rule 5 draft. it’s baseball’s big trade show, so the media has to come. It’s also a way for the sport as a whole to foment interest in the offseason and stay relevant nearly year round.

3:07
Matt: Eno, I know you’ve talked about Cobb’s changeup never coming back post-TJ, but what’s the explanation for his late-season K rate spike? Over his last 7 starts, his K/9 jumped up to 8.92. Anything notable that led to that?

3:07
Eno Sarris: Threw the curve a poop tonne right

3:09
Eno-tional Hardcore: Oskar Blues Death by Coconut, yay or nay? Easy 5 caps on untappd for me.

3:10
Eno Sarris: All in. Maui imperial coconut stout is my Christmas beer for the year, but that one is great too.

3:11
Jon Bon Jovi: Eno, how much would you be willing to go Ohtani in an ottoneu fangraphs points league?

3:12
Eno Sarris: I’d treat him as an oft-injured pitcher with ace-level upside, like a James Paxton. 30s probably.

3:12
Fair line: Wonder why Neshek is willing to take sign again with knowing he’s going to be flipped in 7 months – unless the Phils are overpaying, which wouldn’t make sense since they are cutting into their return value after flipping him (again). I get signing with a rebuilding team to help your value, but seems so personally de-stabilizing to do it twice. I guess Klentak could’ve promised “Hey, Pat, I’ll make sure you land with a team going to the WS”

3:13
Eno Sarris: He put a trade kicker in the deal and got paid well.

3:15
Eno Sarris: sorry, internet is not good here right now

3:15
Electric: Any thoughts on the opposition to a new stadium in Oakland?

3:15
Eno Sarris: wouldn’t be surprised if that group reversed course. I don’t think Oakland (fans and city) want the team to build another stadium where it is now.

3:16
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You are an American league with a limited amount of dollars remaining. You want to pick up a swing starter, a bullpen arm, and a designated hitter/bench piece. By percentage, how do you allocate your remaining dollars towards those three players?

3:16
Eno Sarris: 35/45/20? Just thinking that bullpen arms are costing more and it’s hard to get good value in the middle. other option is 40/20/40 and hope you can identify the next Blake Parker.

3:17
Hannah Hochevar: Do you think the Mets move Harvey? What does his 2018 look like anyway?

3:18
Eno Sarris: No they won’t move him. He fits their staff: they have depth and need a couple of their guys to break out and be good. He could still be good. I don’t know how hopeful I am — I think he had sneaky bad command and just a little step back on the fastball has made it all worse — but maybe good health brings it back.

3:18
Magic 8 Ball: Friedman talks of providing young starters like Buehler and Stewart  a “soft landing” into the Dodgers rotation. Can we take that to mean no Darvish and another ample use of the 10 day DL?

3:18
Eno Sarris: I still like Stewart and they have a decent rotation as is. I think this is what happens.

3:18
capconstrained: No way does Mitchell become an effective ML starter.

3:19
Eno Sarris: It’s possible. His fastball is straight and he lacks command, so he’s a plus velo, plus curve guy with real flaws. Even move to pen didn’t solve it last year.

3:19
Bleh: I can never tell the difference between Hosmer and Moustakas.  I thought they were the same guy for a full season

3:19
Eno Sarris: I am NOT going to comment on this.

3:20
YDG: How necessary is being at the winter meetings to covering them? If you were on house arrest this week how much would that affect your job?

3:20
Eno Sarris: Not much but I do like being able to see everyone, and there is decent access to front office people that mostly disappear during the season.

3:20
Gerald: Monday Night Brewing Slap Fight, one of ATLs best. or nah

3:21
Eno Sarris: 100%. That and something from Orpheus, and if you can count Tropicalia from Creature Comforts (Athens), that’s my best foot forward from the region.

3:21
drewbagels: deep dynasty lg – thoughts on pivetta biagini and trevor williams this season and going forward?

3:21
Eno Sarris: Might be most interested in Pivetta. Movement and velo suggest better work is possible.

3:21
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: IT IS BECAUSE NESHEK LOVES SIGNING THINGS!

3:21
Eno Sarris: oh that was good

3:22
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: My pet peeve is people doing “[punchline] for [dollar figure], Alex” jokes but choosing a value that is not actually used on Jeopardy. (Also, R, Matlab is for macroeconomists and Mathematica is for more pure math applications than a baseball guy should need.)

3:22
Eno Sarris: I think I should learn R. It makes a lot of normal baseball questions super easy and adds a visualization component, so I could use it in place of both SQL and Tableau.

3:22
Michelle: Hi Eno! What are your thoughts on Greg Bird for 2018? Can he reach 30 homers?

3:23
Eno Sarris: Yes! Big fan. May hit .230 but with good OBP and power.

3:23
TB: What did you drink in the hotel bar last night?

3:23
Eno Sarris: Maui cocunut brown, some local saison, and then the resort here brewed some okay pale ale with a stupid Phins type name.

3:24
Michael: I’m learning Tableau in my statistics class. Is that a good skill to have for a job in baseball?

3:25
Eno Sarris: Being able to show any finding in an easy visualization is important for all jobs. Not sure if it’s number one, but it’s a good skill.

3:25
Jock: Graveman and Lowrie from the A’s enough to pry Frazier from the Yankees?

3:27
Eno Sarris: I think they’re going to save him for higher upside. They have money, could buy Neil Walker and CC or Vargas or something and save Frazier.

3:27
Matt: Do the mascots show up to the winter meetings?

3:27
Eno Sarris: No but they should. Don’t they need to go over best practices for uniform upkeep?

3:28
Anthony: Haven’t had a chance to read your Fulmer piece yet. Just scanned it, and didn’t see any mention of his injury (sorry if I missed it), but would that worry you at all?

3:28
Eno Sarris: I did mention his injury history, but his particular injury has good outcomes. They just moved the nerve.

3:29
HappyFunBall: If I were in an MLB FO, I would totally use my team mascot to pass notes to media members for things I didn’t feel were worthy of a full press conference.

3:30
Eno Sarris: “Mr Met would like to announce that he’d…. like to have sex in a villa?” … “Wait no, the Mets have signed Alex Avila.”

3:30
Ehhhhhrly. : As someone training to be in the medical profession, I can’t help but chuckle at “just moved the nerve” because of how absurd it is that it can be a minor surgery.

3:31
Eno Sarris: Ah, yes, all surgeries are a big deal, for sure. It’s just that traditionally this one has a great success rate.

3:31
Fair line: Orlando (AP): Sources reported a physical altercation that left several injured after a notably boozy second evening of Major League Baseball’s annual Winter Meetings. Witnesses reported seeing 2 peirogis and a triceratops exchanging blows.

3:31
Matt: R is good for simple data manipulation, and is vectorized, so it makes computations nice an easy. Tableau’s greatest strength is data exploration. The visualizations can be helpful (and useful) but more often than not it works best to allow you to slice and dice and pull out trends as a data analyst.

3:34
botchatheny:

3:34
Eno-tional Hardcore: I like to imagine there is a town crier at the Winter Meetings who announces every transaction.

3:35
Eno Sarris: HEAR YE HEAR YE

3:35
Eno Sarris: ALEXI OGANDO HAS SIGNED A MINOR LEAGUE DEAL WITH THE INDIANS

3:36
Nerdman: While I was originally just asking a silly question about Eno’s preference, I’d like to point out two important things: first, that learning *all* of the various statistical and math packages can be worthwhile because they have varying strengths of application; and second, that Mr. Met clearly does not fit in the oven, I mean what is he even doing.

3:36
Jon Bon Jovi: What are your feelings about Trevor Story for 2018? Is he going to be the Rockies SS by the end of the season or more of a platoon?

3:37
Davy: Any Orlando or Tampa beer recs? Last minute Christmas present ideas needed!

3:37
Eno Sarris: starting shortstop, just a bit flawed, but above average.

3:39
Eno Sarris: Tampa: Green Bench or Cycle very interesting right now. One of them is great at sours forget which one right now.

3:39
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: What would happen if we meshed your article and Travis’ article to include Ellsbury in the package to Det to eat his contract. How much more would that net for Detroit?

3:39
Eno Sarris: Not sure that’s a Yankee priority after Headley. I think Travis got the idea right but ended up with a different player.

3:41
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Slow chat right now? I’ve never had a question answered so quickly . . .

3:42
Eno Sarris: slowing down a bit in hour three, plus slow internet, plus slow in the head writer

3:42
Paccus: STL should market its thriving beer scene to attract the high end free agents

3:42
Eno Sarris: Apparently Eric Thames showed up to Milwaukee and was like ‘the beer here is awesome!’

3:43
Jebby: As a NYY fan, I don’t like your trade proposal. And I bet DET fans don’t like it either. Which means you probably nailed it.

3:43
Eno Sarris: Big Justus fan?

3:45
Phan: How far away are the phillies?

3:45
Eno Sarris: Around the corner. I still have some hope for Maikel Franco, they have money coming. They have so many outfielders… I hear they love Kingery.

3:46
K2: Phillies, Cards, Giants linked to the O’s for Machado.  What would trade packages look like?  Pick the best if it saves time!

3:46
Eno Sarris: Cards link up best if O’s want pitching. Jack Flaherty plus some stuff. One year of surplus might not get them that much more?

3:46
Drew: Wait – per Fair Line’s comment about the media being at the winter meetings. It helps to have the media there, right. As an agent, you can leak to reporters and generate leverage. Teams can leak to reporters and generate leverage. Volume of media adds cloud over the leak details and provides some cover. I think GMs are right to welcome media. On the other hand, Buster’s jab at Jeter for not defending his trade was silly. Teams have no responsibility to anyone but profits but can use the media as a tool. C’mon Buster.

3:47
Eno Sarris: Agents for sure use the media for leaks. I was asking some front office people about active front office disinformation and they were skeptical.

3:47
Show Hey O’Tawny: Oh wow the Indians actually did sign Alexi Ogando I thought you were kidding

3:47
Eno Sarris: it’s like the news is just washing over us like a bathtub full of wine

3:47
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Went to a friends brewery recently and his beer sucked.  What would Eno do in this situation?

3:48
Eno Sarris: Pick the best one, say it was solid first, and then address an easy to talk about flaw in another beer so that their beer can get better but they don’t get mad about it.

3:48
Adam: If the velocity gains in Justus’ FB are sustainable over full seasons, he’s a stud.

3:48
Eno Sarris: Isn’t there a second ‘if’ wrt his changeup?

3:49
Seth: Do you think Cesar and Galvis will both be traded? Phils go with an infield of Franco, Crawford, Kingery, and Hoskins.

3:49
Eno Sarris: I bet you Galvis doesn’t have enough value to really trade and ends up the super util in that group. Fair amount of smoke around Cesar.

3:49
Mark: Best 2018: Mahle, Bob Steve, or Romano?

3:50
Eno Sarris: Bob Steve. Interested in this two breaking ball approach.

3:51
Drew: A team can say, hey we got a pretty good offer for player x, which is kind of a leak, but isn’t disinformation. Just a nice way to get better offers.

3:52
J: Thoughts on the Phins and Feathers pale ale they have in the lobby?

3:52
Eno Sarris: That’s it. Caused me to talk about how craft beer is everywhere, and that’s fine, because I’ll take even that stuff over the macro lagers.

3:53
JJ: If the Twins land Darvish and rebuild that pen, do they leapfrog the Tribe?

3:53
Eno Sarris: I don’t think so but they certainly become more interesting. I can’t believe they made the playoffs with that staff last year.

3:54
Eno Sarris: And the prediction was right: Yankee fans want to add Ellsbury into my offer and Tiger fans say it’s Torres or bust.

3:54
Henry: Would Quantrill, Renfroe, and Lauer work for Yelich and Chen?

3:55
Eno Sarris: I can’t see Padres trading Quantrill now, he’s going to be up next year likely.

3:55
Josh: Is PBR the best cheap American beer?

3:55
Eno Sarris: I’ll dig on it. Coors Banquet is okay.

3:56
Eno-tional Hardcore: Blasphemy! High Life or Narragansett for cheap American beer.

3:57
Eno Sarris: Fun nuggets from a twitter exchange for anyone wondering: Steamer projections for free agents are in a neutral environment, batter projections include exit velocity.

3:57
JJ: Is Fat Tire the most overrated beer?

3:57
Eno Sarris: yes.

3:58
Fat Matt: In wisconsin, Spotted Cow is the most overrated

3:58
Eno Sarris: It’s not a standout but at least I can drink a few. Don’t hand me a Fat Tire please.

3:58
Capt’n Canada: Favorite Canadian Beer?

3:59
Eno Sarris: One of Bellwood’s hoppy sours!

3:59
Safety Stegosaurus: Would it be more or less fun if the Winter Meetings were held in a random smaller city like Billings, MT?

3:59
Eno Sarris: About the same. 90% of the attendees don’t leave the hotel.

3:59
Eno Sarris: Guys! I’m going on MLBNow shortly, have to answer a bunch of texts and emails, so this is where we bid adieu.

4:00
Eno Sarris: thanks for hanging out!

We hoped you liked reading Winter Meetings Live Blog, Day 2 by Eric Longenhagen!

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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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