Manny Machado is on the trade block. And rightfully so, as the Orioles are not very close to the other contenders in the AL East, and are looking at losing Machado, Zach Britton, and Adam Jones to free agency next winter. There is simply too large a divide to justify holding those guys and hoping the team lucks into a Wild Card spot, so moving their best pieces while they have the most value is the rational decision.

That said, as I’ve ready some of the suggested offers various teams could make to bring Machado to their city, it seems there remains a disconnect between the understanding of Machado’s abilities and Machado’s trade value. It’s unquestioned that Machado is one of the best players in the world. He’s a star, and will be paid accordingly in free agency next year. But for anyone acquiring him, he’s a one-year rental, with some fringe benefit of being able to try to get him to give you a discount in free agency next winter. That’s worth something, but it isn’t worth the kinds of packages that people seem to expect.

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The Orioles have seemingly come to their senses about their place on the win curve and, as such, are open to trading Manny Machado. On the other hand, it’s been nearly a week since that news broke, and we haven’t heard many concrete trade offers out for Baltimore’s All-Star infielder. Perhaps the news was overblown. Perhaps not. One thing we can say with certainty is that, if Machado were traded, it would be fairly historic.

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This past Friday, writing even before the actual start of winter (it’s still officially autumn!), this author nevertheless declared the Angels the winners of the offseason.

Their triumph in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes alone might have sealed that distinction, but last week the Angels also added Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler. Earlier in the offseason, they extended Justin Upton. And for good measure, they signed former Braves prospect Kevin Maitan.

They’ve added a number of crucial wins — at a reasonable total cost — to propel themselves from the bubble of the projected standings to a Wild Card favorite.

The Angels have upgraded two infield positions, retained a slugging corner outfielder, and have added perhaps an ace pitcher. I touched on all this in the piece regarding the Angels from the end of last week. What I didn’t examine was another area of need the club has addressed thanks to Ohtani’s dual-threat status.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Cardinals hitters ranked eighth in the majors by WAR this past season, and they did it in the precise way one expects Cardinals hitters to do these things: on the back of a 29-year-old center fielder who entered the season with fewer than 400 plate appearances. Also key were the contributions of a shortstop who’d played mostly third base in the minors and a first baseman who hit just 29 homers in nearly 1,500 minor-league plate appearances. Tommy Pham (532 PA, 3.3 zWAR), Paul DeJong (602, 2.1), and Matt Carpenter (573, 3.0) are all under contract for 2018 and all profile as average or better players.

The newest member of the club also appears to be the best. St. Louis was among the beneficiaries of Miami’s attempt to liquidate every possible asset, acquiring outfielder Marcell Ozuna (644, 3.7) for a modest package of prospects. ZiPS calls for him to produce what amounts to an even split between his 2016 and -17 seasons.

As for weaknesses, there are few among the club’s position-player core. One possible concern is shortstop defense (DeJong is projected for -6 runs there), although that’s also been a possible concern for the last three or seven years.

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The Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants have been two of the most successful franchises of the last decade, with a combined nine playoff appearances, five World Series appearances, and three titles — all to the Giants — but both teams had disappointing seasons this past year and face uncertain futures. Each was connected to a trade earlier this offseason for a major, high-salaried player — Giancarlo Stanton in the Giants’ case, Zack Greinke in the Rangers’ — although neither deal came to fruition.

Neither team’s strategy has been readily apparent. After a deal on Friday, however, their paths forward have become a bit more clear, even if neither club’s intentions appear crystallized.

Rangers receive

• LHP Matt Moore
• $750,000 of the Giants’ international bonus pool

Giants receive

• RHP Sam Wolff
• RHP Israel Cruz

The main piece in the deal, Matt Moore was a part of an underachieving rotation in San Francisco last season. Johnny Cueto couldn’t repeat his great 2016 campaign, and Madison Bumgarner missed a chunk of the season due to an off-field injury. Matt Moore was pretty good in 2016, putting up an ERA and FIP right around four — including an even better 3.53 FIP in his partial stint in San Francisco — and completed that season with average numbers and a 2.3 WAR. After that, though, his velocity dipped — by more than 1 mph on his fastball. His swinging-strike percentage declined down from 10.4% in 2016 to 8.6% last year, and batters made contact on 90% of swings in the zone, his worst career mark.

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Kirsten Karbach grew up listening to Andy Freed and Dave Wills call Tampa Bay Rays games on the radio. Now she’s following in their footsteps. At age 27, Karbach is the voice of Philadelphia’s high-A affiliate, the Clearwater Threshers. She’s been with the Florida State League club since 2013.

According to Ben Gellman, Karbach got her job by “knocking our socks off” in an interview.

“When I was with the Threshers, my boss told me I could hire a No. 2 broadcaster to intern and help me out,” explained Gellman, who now does play-by-play for the Salem Red Sox. “He suggested a guy from the University of South Florida, whose tape was pretty good, but I’d heard a couple of innings of Kirsten on tape and was blown away by the quality of her call. I told my boss, ‘We have got to bring her in for an interview.’

“We brought her on board and she was a terrific partner, consistently pointing out nuances of the game and enhancing the broadcast. When she took over the lead job in 2014, I knew she’d do a fantastic job and I’m so happy to see her continued success in a corner of our industry that badly needs more women and people of color — and other people who aren’t straight, white males — to give us a diverse perspective that better reflects our fans.”

Karbach obviously feels the same way, and while she’s currently the only female play-by-play broadcaster in affiliated baseball she doesn’t expect that to be the case for much longer. Read the rest of this entry »

Every Friday, for a couple of hours, I host a FanGraphs live baseball chat. Yesterday, I held my first chat in the aftermath of the winter meetings. The previous Friday, I held my last chat before the winter meetings. Within that chat, here’s a question that popped up:

We might never know Tom’s true identity. But, Tom, if that is your real name — good going. You came awfully close.

With five players involved, this is a big trade for two teams to make. But then, if we’re going to be realistic, this isn’t about the players at all. This is a swap of money, or, more accurately, this is a swap of debt. There is short-term debt, and there is shorter-term debt.

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Each week, we publish in the neighborhood of 75 articles across our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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