Maybe There Really Was Something Up With the Ball

Look, I don’t want to dwell on this too much. I’m not sure there’s anywhere to take it, and I’m a natural skeptic with these theories, anyway. I’m not sure why the World Series baseball would feel unusually slick, and, even if it’s true that it did, well, both teams got the same baseballs. You adjust and you deal. The Astros won one more game than the Dodgers did. Every single baseball game is played under its own unique conditions. The Astros are the rightful champions, and the Dodgers are the rightful runners-up.

But there’s always going to be that what-if element. It would be there anyway. What if Clayton Kershaw started Game 7, instead of Yu Darvish? What if Cody Bellinger had actually walked off Game 2? What if Yulieski Gurriel had been suspended immediately, instead of having it delayed until 2018? What if a million things. Baseball seldom makes it clean. What if there truly was something weird about the ball? What could’ve happened if there weren’t?

There’s no closure to be found through entertaining these questions. The games will never be replayed, and the Astros will stand as the 2017 champs forever. I just wonder. I see the argument against the ball being different. I made it just the other day! And yet, I’m not sure how to explain Brad Peacock.

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2017-18: Ballot 11 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them starting pitchers.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Jake Arrieta / Alex Avila / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Jay Bruce / Melky Cabrera / Trevor Cahill / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Andrew Cashner / Jhoulys Chacin / Alex Cobb / Bartolo Colon / Zack Cozart / Johnny Cueto / Yu Darvish / Lucas Duda / Jarrod Dyson / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Doug Fister / Todd Frazier / Jaime Garcia / Carlos Gomez / Carlos Gonzalez / Miguel Gonzalez / Curtis Granderson / Jeremy Hellickson / Matt Holliday / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Francisco Liriano / Jonathan Lucroy / Lance Lynn / J.D. Martinez / Cameron Maybin / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Ricky Nolasco / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Jose Reyes / Carlos Santana / Justin Upton / Neil Walker / Jayson Werth.

***

Michael Pineda (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Pineda:

  • Has averaged 144 IP and 2.6 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.3 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons*.
  • Recorded a 1.1 WAR in 96.1 IP in 2017.
  • Is projected to record 0.0 WAR per 180 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-29 season.
  • Made $7.4M in 2017 after avoiding arbitration in January.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**That is, because he’s unlikely to pitch after undergoing Tommy John surgery this year.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Pineda.

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Justin Upton Is Staying in Anaheim

Billy Eppler does not care about baseball writers. A year ago, the day after the World Series ended, he traded for Cameron Maybin to shore up his outfield. Today, the day after the World Series ended, he gave Justin Upton a new contract to convince him to not use his opt-out clause and become a free agent, once again improving his outfield.

The deal seems pretty straight forward; in addition to the $88 million he had remaining on his contract over the next four years if he didn’t opt-out, the Angels added an $18 million guarantee for a fifth year, pushing his new guaranteed total to $106 million over five years. Given what the market is paying for wins these days, this effectively values Upton as something like a +3 WAR player expected to age fairly normally.

Obviously, he was a lot better than that this year, putting up his second best season by WAR in his career, but since signing his last free agent contract, he’s totaled +6.3 WAR over two seasons, so a +3 WAR per year estimate seems about right. Upton might not be the steadiest performer around, but given his base of skills, a little over $100 million for five years seems about right.

The Angels just saw a division rival win the World Series, and the Astros are going to enjoy all the benefits that comes with that over the next few years, making them an even tougher opponent to overcome. But with Upton in the fold at a fair rate, they have a better shot at capitalizing on Mike Trout’s prime than they would have had Upton hit the open market.


Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 11/2/17

3:19
Eno Sarris: Dedicated to Yu? No, dedicated to Rob Manfred and his juiced balls? Wait. You dedicate this.

12:03
Eno Sarris: I’m here I’m here I’m here

12:04
Lance McCullers: I got 4 hit (batsmen) and a RBI.  Which is more surprising?

12:04
Eno Sarris: The RBI. AL pitcher!

12:04
dan: Should bellinger get blames just as much for the dodger losing last night as yu darvish?

12:05
Eno Sarris: It wasn’t a good postseason for Bellinger, and he had some flaws exposed. I saw some say he’ll fall off quickly and isn’t that good. I believe he has some contact improvement in him and this was part of that first rookie adjustment myself.

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An Ode to the Astros’ Veterans

When the accolades are being given out for this 2017 Astros championship, they’ll deservedly go to the club’s young core. They were spectacular. World Series MVP George Springer led the way in the final seven games with an OPS over 1.400, five home runs, and enough exuberance to exhume the dead. Possible regular-season MVP Jose Altuve led the club with a 1.021 postseason OPS and seven home runs. Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa combined for nine wins this year. Indeed, no team club received as many wins from players aged 28 or younger than this Houston Astros team.

We shouldn’t forget the veterans on this squad, though, a collection of players who not only offered important production but supported their younger teammates all the way to the end.

The Astros hitters over 30 — led by Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and Josh Reddick — compiled the 17th-most wins among 30-somethings across the league. It doesn’t look like a lot, but that group may have helped change what had been a losing culture in Houston most recently.

“There was a lot of concern about where this thing was going,” said general manager Jeff Luhnow after the game, “and culture is a hard thing to quantify. From the young guys that we’ve had here — Altuve, [Carlos] Correa, Springer, [Alex] Bregman — they were developing their own culture, and the thing that we were missing was the McCann, Beltran, been there, done that, been in every situation and can help these guys through it, and that was useful.”

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Charlie Morton Was Baseball in 2017

Last night, with the franchise’s first championship hanging in the balance, Astros manager A.J. Hinch handed the ball to Charlie Morton. He never asked for it back, and four innings later, the Astros mobbed Morton on the mound. They are champions today in part because of Charlie Morton, and there was perhaps no more fitting player to get the last out of the 2017 season, because Charlie Morton embodies so much of what baseball is today.

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George Springer Had an All-Time World Series

Symbolism is useful, but it’s also overused. The Astros just won the World Series, and George Springer just won the World Series MVP. Are there ways in which Springer is a symbol for what the Astros are, and for what they’ve achieved? Sure, if you need him to be. He’s a good young player. Homegrown. Seems like a leader. Thrived on the biggest stage. Springer could serve as a symbol, because he is great, and the Astros are great. Look how easy this is!

But while it’s appropriate that Springer won the award, I don’t think that’s because the Astros made a point of following his lead, or anything. I don’t think the Astros made themselves in George Springer’s image, any more than they made themselves in Jose Altuve’s. A winning team is a collection of a whole lot of talent. It’s appropriate that Springer won the award because of this.

You thought you were seeing a lot of this before. You haven’t seen anything yet. You’re going to hear about this from your dentist.

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2017 World Series Game 7 Live Blog

7:56
Dave Cameron: Happy Game 7 everyone!

7:56
Dave Cameron:

I am rooting for

The Dodgers (46.5% | 154 votes)
 
The Astros (53.4% | 177 votes)
 

Total Votes: 331
7:56
Dave Cameron:

I think the

Dodgers will win (62.3% | 195 votes)
 
Astros will win (37.6% | 118 votes)
 

Total Votes: 313
7:57
Dave Cameron:

Clayton Kershaw will face

0 batters (2.1% | 7 votes)
 
1-3 batters (16.4% | 53 votes)
 
4-6 batters (48.7% | 157 votes)
 
7-9 batters (22.9% | 74 votes)
 
9+ batters (9.6% | 31 votes)
 

Total Votes: 322
7:58
Dave Cameron:

Justin Verlander will face

0 batters (36.7% | 116 votes)
 
1-3 batters (42.4% | 134 votes)
 
4-6 batters (14.8% | 47 votes)
 
6-9 batters (3.1% | 10 votes)
 
7-ow my arm (2.8% | 9 votes)
 

Total Votes: 316
7:58
Dave Cameron:

Who lasts longer?

Darvish (50.8% | 152 votes)
 
McCullers (49.1% | 147 votes)
 

Total Votes: 299

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Effectively Wild Episode 1131: This One Goes to Seven

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the historic nature of the 2017 World Series and discuss World Series Game 6, including Josh Reddick’s record in clutch situations, David Roberts’ Rich Hill hook, a Justin Verlander decision, and the Astros’ and Dodgers’ different approaches to pitcher usage, then analyze Game 7’s pitching predicaments and the Clayton Kershaw question before answering listener emails about heavily used playoff relievers, starters pitching on short rest in the postseason, the significance of shutdown innings, Chris Taylor’s value, clutch defense, the timing of MVP voting, and more.

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New Effectively Wild Heat Map T-Shirts Are Here!

Both the Effectively Wild podcast and community are marvelous. And with the help of that community, we have a new t-shirt for sale.

This is the first two-sided t-shirt in FanGraphs history, and it’s a doozy. As has become a FanGraphs custom, the t-shirt was designed by Aaron Gershman of Creative Sentencing, who you should absolutely hire for your next design project. But the cool part about this shirt is that it was made with input from the EW community. Let’s take a look at the broad strokes:

The back, as you can see, is a heat map. But it’s not just any heat map. It’s a heat map of all the things that are (or are not) discussed on the podcast. The items in the red boxes are discussed frequently, those in the white boxes are discussed rarely, and in the blue are things that are never discussed. Let’s take a closer look at the heat map, shall we?

Things like actual baseball games may never be discussed on the pod, but with plenty of Matt Albers and Ned Garver talk, you really can’t go wrong.

These wonderful t-shirts are now available for sale for $30. We have to charge a little more for these since they are two-sided, but we think it’s still a pretty great value. We hope you will too, and will continue to support Effectively Wild, which has been a great addition to the FanGraphs family!

(In other t-shirt news, the “Do You Go To FanGraphs At All?” t-shirts are also back in stock. Get ’em while they’re hot!)