Dallas Keuchel Executed, the Yankees Executed Better

Dallas Keuchel didn’t overwhelm the Yankees like usual on Wednesday. Rather than continuing his career domination of the New York nine — which includes 14 scoreless innings in the postseason and a 1.09 ERA in eight starts overall — he did what Joe Girardi said before the game he rarely does: lay an egg. Keuchel was chased in the fifth, having surrendered seven hits and four runs.

In the lefty’s opinion, the egg was a matter more of results than process. Following the game, he wasn’t so much self-critical as he was complimentary of his competition.

“Outside of Castro’s double in the second — it was a backup cutter and he put a good swing on it — I don’t think I can pinpoint another mistake pitch,” Keuchel told reporters. “Sanchez’s double down the line was a pretty good pitch down and in, and he hadn’t had great success on that pitch. Judge… [the] cutter was in; maybe it wasn’t in quite far enough, but it was in enough to get an out. [Greg Bird] hit a good pitch. It was inside — it was off the plate — and he just stuck his hands in enough to get it over Yuli’s head.”

Yankees hitters expressed multiple viewpoints regarding Keuchel’s performance. Todd Frazier — presumably referring to more than just Castro’s knock — opined that his teammates “hit the mistakes.” (What constitutes a mistake from Keuchel is a point on which Frazier elaborates below.)

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Can Jose Quintana Save the Cubs?

The Cubs staved off elimination last night through the might of Javier Baez, retaining the hope of becoming the first back-to-back World Series winner since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees. As a reward for their survival, they get to face the best pitcher of this generation in Clayton Kershaw, who has a chance to exorcise some postseason demons of his own with a decisive putaway performance.

But this isn’t about Kershaw. It’s about the man the Cubs send to the mound opposing him. Jose Quintana, whom the Cubs received for a very reasonable return, was acquired for this very reason, and the changes he made since coming to the North Side may set him up for success against the Dodgers tonight.

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This Is the Postseason of the Home Run

Yesterday was a good day for the Yankees and the Cubs. The Yankees moved to the brink of making the World Series, while the Cubs managed to avoid NLCS elimination. From a less team-oriented perspective, yesterday was also a good day for the home run. In Chicago, Willson Contreras started the scoring with a long solo shot. Javier Baez hit two solo dingers of his own, while the Dodgers got solo shots from Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner. In New York, Gary Sanchez launched a homer out to left. There were six home runs hit, on a day in which there were just 10 total runs scored. For none of the homers were any runners on base, but even so, that means that dingers accounted for 60% of the offense.

Now, 60% is extreme. It should be considered a one-day blip. And yet it does still fit a pattern. So far in the playoffs, we’ve seen a total of 234 runs. Of those, 115 have scored on homers. That means that 119 have scored on non-homers. You’ll notice that 115 and 119 are almost identical.

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2017-18: Ballot 2 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them first basemen.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Alex Avila / Welington Castillo / Chris Iannetta / Jonathan Lucroy.

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Lucas Duda (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Duda:

  • Has averaged 406 PA and 1.4 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.1 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.1 WAR in 491 PA in 2017.
  • Is projected to record 2.1 WAR per 600 PA**.
  • Is entering his age-32 season.
  • Made $7.3M in 2017 after avoiding arbitration in January.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starter.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Duda.

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Are We Watching Pitchers Hurt Themselves in the Playoffs?

The postseason game is changing around us. Starting pitchers are being asked to go harder for shorter periods of time, allowing teams to begin playing matchups with the bullpen as early as the third inning. And while strategically sound in most cases, this trend has emerged without a major change in how we think about rest and schedules in the postseason. As much as we might love the high-intensity matchups that “bullpenning” provides, is it possible that pitchers are having to endure greater stress than in the past?

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The Fastball Is Back This Postseason

Last October gave us the postseason of the curveball — of the breaking ball, in general. The Indians, among others, navigated their way through the playoffs with an increasing reliance on breaking pitches. A combination of Andrew Miller’s slider and Corey Kluber’s breaking-ball combination nearly delivered a World Series title for Cleveland.

These playoffs have been different, however. This year, the fastball has been king.

The current postseason began, of course, with a Yankees club employing a fastball that averaged 98 mph against the Twins in the Wild Card game. Other pitchers, other teams have increasingly relied upon the pitch, as well. Consider, for example, that, through Tuesday, fastball usage was up seven percentage points from last postseason. While the postseason does, by nature, produce a smaller sample of data and a varying pool of teams from year to year, we haven’t seen a continuation of last year’s trend in terms of breaking-ball usage.

The Postseason Fastball in Statcast Era
Year Total FT and FF fastballs Average FB velocity Average spin rate %. of total pitches
2015 4869 94.2 2233 46.9
2016 4350 94.0 2340 42.6
2017 3944 93.9 2289 49.9
SOURCE: Statcast via Baseball Savant

Yes, it helps to have Justin Verlander and Luis Severino on the mound in October to boost fastball usage.

On Saturday, Verlander — whose velocity is back — shoved 71 four-seam fastballs. The pitch averaged 96.1 mph and the 71st traveled out of his hand at 96.7 mph. Severino, for his part, has displayed an electric arm for much of the postseason and is quite possibly the best AL pitcher not named Kluber or Chris Sale.

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What’s Wrong With Houston’s Offense?

Last night, behind seven brilliant innings of work from Masahiro Tanaka, the Yankees blanked the Astros 5-0 to take a 3-2 lead in the ALCS. After that shutout, Houson has now scored just nine runs in the first five games of this series, and they are hitting an anemic .147/.234/.213 so far in the ALCS. This isn’t what anyone expected from a club that produced baseball’s best batting line in the regular season and then thoroughly pummeled Red Sox pitching in the first round of the postseason.

So, how has a team that scored nearly 900 runs in the regular season gotten so thoroughly shut down against the Yankees?

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FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 10/18/17

9:37
Paul Swydan:

Who will win the ALCS?

Astros (22.6% | 56 votes)
 
Yankees (77.3% | 191 votes)
 

Total Votes: 247
9:37
Paul Swydan:

Who will win the NLCS?

Cubs (5.1% | 12 votes)
 
Dodgers (94.8% | 223 votes)
 

Total Votes: 235
9:37
Paul Swydan:

Will the Dodgers sweep tonight?

Yes (52.1% | 124 votes)
 
No (29.8% | 71 votes)
 
Maybe! (18.0% | 43 votes)
 

Total Votes: 238
9:01
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01
Mike: The single-season record for pitcher appearances is Mike Marshall with 106. That’s pretty impressive, but do you think Carl Edwards Jr. will break it in August or in September next year?

9:02
Paul Swydan: I don’t think that Toothpick Edwards’ appendages will stay together for that many appearances in such a short timespan.

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FanGraphs Audio: Travis Sawchik’s Moral Predicament

Episode 777
Travis Sawchik recently won his second consecutive title in the simulation baseball league of which he and a number of major-league beat reporters are a part. The tactics on which he’s relied for success, however, are the very sort that he’s condemned in actual baseball. Will he be able to sleep at night? Should he be able to? These are merely two of the questions he’s reluctant to answer on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 16 min play time.)

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These Are the Most Talented Playoff Teams of the Wild-Card Era

It’s been apparent from the beginning that these playoffs have included some awfully talented teams. Travis wrote a couple weeks ago about the possible arrival of the era of the super-team, and I examined the landscape myself at the start of the month, when I did my best to rate all 10 of the playoff teams based on their numbers and their expected playing times. We’re watching a lot of elite-level talent this month, and it only helps that the two weakest participants were eliminated in the wild-card games. Only quality left.

But now I want to look at this in a different way. I ran some numbers in the way that I did last October. I’d actually forgotten about that analysis until last night, when I mis-clicked on a spreadsheet I’d saved before. Nothing quite like stumbling your way into a new and timely article.

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