Rangers and Padres Pitching Prospects Open Instructs

Instructional League began in Arizona on Wednesday with the Texas and San Diego groups playing in Peoria, AZ. Lefty Brett Martin started for Texas and sat 92-94 with his downhill fastball, touching 95. He frequently utilized a changeup that flashed average, but was mostly below in the 83-85 mph range with an upper-80s cutter. I saw no curveballs from Martin, which I had previously evaluated as his best secondary pitch. I’m not certain if the pitch has been scrapped temporarily for developmental purposes — or perhaps medical ones, as Rangers pitchers in Extended were on fastball-only programs for a while — or if he simply didn’t happen to throw any. Regardless, Martin’s changeup needs reps, as he’s missed significant time with injury during each of the last three years. Between 2015 and -17 he’s had hip, elbow, and back issues. He has mid-rotation upside if he can stay healthy and more consistently locate a fully developed changeup.

Speaking of changeups, Cole Ragans is going to have a really good one. The Rangers 19-year-old lefty sat 88-91 with his fastball yesterday and flashed an above-average, fading changeup in the upper 70s. I have it and Ragans’ command projected to plus. His fastball is a 40 on pure velocity but plays better than that due to plane and deception. He also showed a fringey, low-70s curveball. I can see the basis for the Cole Hamels comparisons, as there are some mechanical similarities and the repertoire is structured similarly. That said, Ragans isn’t as graceful and athletic as Hamels is/was, nor does he have the velocity. Yet.

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Updating the Language of Hitting

We’ve written about a possible sea change in baseball over the last few years here, using phrases like “point of contact” and “attack angle” to better articulate the emergence of a Fly-Ball Revolution, itself another relatively new expression. Add those phrases to all the ones we’ve been compelled to learn for the benefit of Statcast alone — terms like “launch angle,” “exit velocity,” “spin rate,” etc. — and it’s obvious that our baseball dictionaries are getting an update on the fly.

Simply because we’re using a new lexicon, however, doesn’t mean we’re using it correctly — or, at the very least, that some of our assumptions couldn’t benefit from an update, as well.

With that in mind, I decided to examine some of the most notable and commonly used terms in this new language of hitting. With the help of the players themselves, perhaps we can better see what lies beneath each of them and attempt to reach something closer to a common understanding.

Fly-Ball Revolution

“I wish you wouldn’t call it the ‘fly-ball revolution,'” Daniel Murphy told me earlier in the year. “Coaches then think we’re talking about hitting the ball straight into the air. Call it the ‘high-line-drive revolution.'”

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The Rockies’ Big Advantage in the Wild Card Race

The Rockies are struggling again. After winning eight of nine to re-solidify their lead in the race for the second Wild Card spot, they’ve now lost five of seven, including their last three in a row. Meanwhile, the surging Brewers have won nine of 12, closing Colorado’s lead to just a single game. Yesterday, they got shut out by Matt Moore, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. The team’s inconsistent offense broke up for 16 runs last Saturday, but scored a grand total of 12 runs in the other five games they’ve played in the last week, and now the Brewers are nipping at their heels.

But if you look at our Playoff Odds, our algorithm still thinks the Rockies are in a pretty good spot, with a 68% chance of capturing the second Wild Card spot, versus just 16% for the Brewers. With just a one game lead, this is a pretty big discrepancy, and might seem like our projections are just wildly overrating the difference between the two teams. However, those calculations aren’t just accounting for the projected performance of the Brewers and Rockies over the next week and a half, but also taking both teams’ schedules into account. And the schedules for the two teams couldn’t be more different.

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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 9/21/17

1:14
Eno Sarris: This chat is one thing we could not fully automate, I don’t think.

12:00
Guest: has anyone asked for your autograph before? was it weird?

12:00
Eno Sarris: Nobody has. that would be super weird.

12:01
Sam: Who’s coming out of the NL and why?

12:01
Eno Sarris: Nationals. Shorter series favors their dual-ace, superstar-driven strategy as long as Harper is healthy.

12:02
2-D: So next time you see Neshek are you going to ask him for his autograph… and hand him a Zack Greinke card?

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The 2017 Fans’ Scouting Report

For the last 15 years, Tom Tango — now senior database architect on MLB’s Statcast team — has hosted the Fans’ Scouting Report on his site, tapping into the wisdom of the crowd to create another data point to help in the evaluation of a player’s defensive performance each season. While we’ve hosted the results of the voting on FanGraphs the last few years, we’re excited to announce that we’ll now be hosting the voting for the project on the site, as well.

Using the link to the scouting report here, you will be able to provide your evaluation of the defenders on a specific team; this should be for the team you watch most frequently. Instead of providing an overall valuation of a player’s defensive contribution this year, you’ll be grading players on a series of individual skills, which will be tallied into a final overall rating. These ratings should be drawn from your own observation, and as best as you can manage, not be influenced by other defensive metrics you’ve seen for any particular player.

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Let’s Improve the Wild-Card Round

Since the second Wild Card was introduced in 2012, Major League Baseball has enjoyed most of what the expanded playoff field has done for the game. The extra playoff berth has made division titles significantly more important. Winning a division outright allows a team to bypass the play-in game to advance into the October tournament. The second Wild Card has also created two more playoff races, allowing the majority of clubs to retain some plausible chance of reaching the postseason into the second half.

The Wild Card play-in game has also made for some compelling television, manufacturing two made-for-TV elimination games.

But the new format isn’t without its flaws, the most prominent of which, in the opinion of this author, is this: the No. 1 Wild Card can be a significantly better team than the No. 2 Wild Card but is nevertheless subject to playing in something of a coin-flip game after the grind of a 162-game season. It can be pretty unfair to have, say, a 98-win team lose to an 86-win team in a one-game playoff.

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Job Posting: Wasserman Sports Analytics Internship

Position: Wasserman Sports Analytics Internship

Location: New York

Description:
Wasserman is continually looking to expand its internal analytics capabilities to better serve clients across a multitude of sports. New hires take on a variety of responsibilities ranging from daily database maintenance to player-specific statistical research. As such, ideal applicants will have strong problem solving skills and a willingness to undertake new and unfamiliar tasks.
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Mike Trout’s Never Won a Playoff Game and It’s Weird

Mike Trout can do everything. Almost. (Photo: Keith Allison)

In one form or another, the majority of posts at this site are based on some type of leaderboard. Highest average velocity among qualified pitchers, lowest ground-ball rate among qualified batters: these are the sort of distinctions that attract the attention both of writers and readers — and even illustrate the game’s trends towards one pole or another.

Generally speaking, when Mike Trout appears on a leaderboard at FanGraphs, it’s because he’s exerted his excellence in yet another way. Currently, for example, Trout possesses the top batting line among all active players and also the second-most baserunning runs among active players and the second-highest WAR total among all major-league batters ever through age 25.

One capacity in which Trout hasn’t been able to exert his excellence, however, is team success. During his time in Anaheim, Trout has made the playoffs on just one occasion. It was in 2014, and his Angels were swept out of the playoffs promptly. The Angels have had some decent seasons during Trout’s career — they won 89 in 2012, 85 in 2015, and they also currently have a winning record. Odds are, however, that Trout is about to finish his sixth full season as the best player in baseball, and he’s never won a single game in the playoffs. That’s odd.

We know that baseball is a team sport, and even when one-third of teams make the playoffs every year, one player can’t do it alone. Every player is very much reliant on his team. Even Mike Trout.

If it seems unusual that a player of Trout’s stature has failed to win even a single postseason game, that’s because it is. To provide a little context before taking a more historic approach, below is a table featuring the best position players by WAR since Trout exhausted his rookie eligibility in 2012. I’ve also included the total number of postseason games each player has won during that time.

MLBs Best WAR with Playoff Wins Since 2012
Name PA WAR Playoff Wins
Mike Trout 3883 52.9 0
Josh Donaldson 3522 36.5 14
Joey Votto 3504 31.7 2
Andrew McCutchen 3969 31.6 3
Buster Posey 3582 31.3 25
Adrian Beltre 3578 31.2 1
Paul Goldschmidt 3804 31.0 0
Robinson Cano 4033 29.8 3
Miguel Cabrera 3741 28.0 12
Bryce Harper 3242 27.9 5
Manny Machado 3326 26.5 3
Giancarlo Stanton 3072 26.4 0
Jose Altuve 4038 25.5 3
Kyle Seager 3972 25.5 0
Freddie Freeman 3595 24.7 1
Anthony Rizzo 3702 24.4 15
Dustin Pedroia 3517 23.8 11
Jason Heyward 3391 23.6 13
Matt Carpenter 3584 23.2 20
Evan Longoria 3698 23.0 2
Among Position Players

This is one of the few bad leaderboards on which Trout’s name appears. Since becoming an MLB regular in 2012, Trout has recorded double the WAR of all but 10 players. Of those 10 players, Paul Goldschmidt is the only one (besides Trout) not to win a playoff game. Arizona will get an opportunity this season to address that issue — and, of course, Goldschmidt himself recorded two playoff with the Diamondbacks in 2011. Of the top-20 position players since 2012, the only others not to win a playoff game are Giancarlo Stanton and Kyle Seager. With expanded playoffs, good players generally get opportunities to appear on a winning club at some point, and reaching a playoff series generally means winning a playoff game.

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Job Posting: Miami Marlins Baseball Analytics Internship

Position: Miami Marlins Baseball Analytics Internship

Location: Miami

Description:
The Baseball Analytics Intern will assist Baseball Operations decision-making through the analysis and research of baseball information. The specific day-to-day responsibilities of this position will vary depending on the baseball calendar, but will revolve around using data analysis to answer baseball-related questions, with a strong preference for a candidate possessing an established foundation of statistical, programming, and database skills. We are accepting both full year (January-December) and summer candidates at this time.
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Job Posting: Washington Nationals Baseball Operations Analyst

Position: Washington Nationals Baseball Operations Analyst

Location: Washington D.C.

Description:
The Washington Nationals are seeking a full-time Baseball Operations Analyst. The role’s responsibilities include designing and developing analytical tools to aid baseball operations, salary arbitration research and preparation, and ad-hoc research projects to support baseball operations. The ideal candidate will have strong analytical and mathematical skills, excellent verbal and written communication skills, be well-versed in publicly available Sabermetric research, and have a demonstrated passion for working in baseball. The position will report to the Director, Baseball Operations.
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