Starting CC Sabathia Tonight is Perfectly Reasonable

In July, the Yankees sent a significant package of talent to the Oakland A’s in order to acquire Sonny Gray, hoping to improve their rotation for both the stretch run and the postseason. But now that they’re in the postseason, and their season is on the line, Joe Girardi has chosen to hand the ball to CC Sabathia instead.

On the surface, this looks like another example of one of Girardi’s primary weaknesses; overreacting to recent performances. We saw him do this with Luis Severino, bumping him to Game 4 of the ALDS after he was bombed in the Wild Card game, despite Severino being pretty clearly the Yankees best starter right now. And while Gray has a clear edge over Sabathia in track record, he didn’t finish the season very well, allowing a season-worst .330 wOBA in September, and he wasn’t good in his first outing in this series either.

Despite his struggles of late, though, Gray is pretty clearly a better pitcher than Sabathia at this point. I’d generally suggest that a team is better off relying on projections than on what-have-you-done-for-me-lately reactions, and so from a process standpoint, I don’t think picking Sabathia over Gray is a great choice.

But Girardi’s recency bias aside, there’s actually a pretty good case to be made for starting Sabathia tonight.

Read the rest of this entry »


Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/11/17

12:00
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Should be a pretty interesting day of baseball.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Let’s grab some questions for a bit before it starts.

12:01
Dave Cameron: I will note that I might not go to the full hour today, since I’ll be live-blogging CLE-NYY tonight.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Gotta save some chatting energy.

12:02
Matt: Did Dusty lie the whole time or was Strasburg shamed into this?

Read the rest of this entry »


The Death of a Fastball, with CC Sabathia

The last time I saw Dan Haren in the clubhouse, I wanted to hug him. He was a part of a young Cubs team that was about to enter the postseason ahead of schedule. He was also about to retire, though, and I didn’t peg him for one who’d work in the game after he was done. I didn’t know when I’d see him next, and he’d been a go-to source for many of my pieces. This happens more often than we might imagine, this bit of deflation right in the middle of so much elation. For many players, their last appearance in a major-league game also represents their last day in baseball.

The effort to be here now, to be fully present in the moment, is an ongoing one — and a difficult one when it comes to baseball. For example: as much as I’m in love with the present version of Bartolo Colon, I sometimes remember fondly the days when he threw gas — and threw something other than a fastball. I’ve had the opposite experience with Rafael Devers recently: as impressed as I am by his abilities right now, I can’t help but think of his future whenever I watch him.

Contemplating CC Sabathia in this context yields a slightly different experience. The left-hander debuted as a 20-year-old and began producing above-average numbers right away. Over the course of his age-35 and -36 seasons, meanwhile, he’s recorded nearly seven wins. In terms of his capacity to prevent runs, the Sabathia of 2017 isn’t much different than the Sabathia of 2001. As such, Sabathia offers a unique means by which to experience nostalgia for yesterday, the immediacy of today, and the hope for tomorrow all at once.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Yankees Have Shown Us the Future

The Yankees gave us a glimpse of the future on Monday night, demonstrating how a game of ever-increasing extremes is only likely to continue trending in that direction.

No, this isn’t about bullpenning, a strategy that the club almost accidentally employed in the Wild Card game against Minnesota and that they ought to use again in Game 5 tonight. Rather, this is about fastball velocity.

The Yankees’ average fastball in Game 4 against Cleveland traveled at 98 mph. Ninety-eight! New York pitchers failed to throw a single fastball under 96 mph.

That’s kind of terrifying.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1121: Is This Really a Revolution?

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the inaccessibility of playoff stats and the average length of this year’s playoff games, then discuss whether we’re really witnessing a revolution in postseason pitcher usage before breaking down each of the division series, analyzing the latest controversial managerial decisions, and bidding farewell to two more eliminated teams.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 10/10/17

4:04
Paul Swydan:

Will the Nationals-Cubs game be over by the time the chat starts?

Yes, these games have moved fast (0.7% | 1 vote)
 
No, it’s going to be raining, stupid (93.9% | 125 votes)
 
Maybe! (5.2% | 7 votes)
 

Total Votes: 133
4:05
Paul Swydan:

Will the Nationals be eliminated tonight?

Yes (10.1% | 13 votes)
 
No (89.8% | 115 votes)
 

Total Votes: 128
4:07
Paul Swydan:

What do you think would be the most entertaining World Series?

Houston vs. Los Angeles (25.4% | 52 votes)
 
Houston vs. Chicago (2.4% | 5 votes)
 
Houston vs. Washington (2.9% | 6 votes)
 
Cleveland vs. Los Angeles (19.6% | 40 votes)
 
Cleveland vs. Chicago (9.3% | 19 votes)
 
Cleveland vs. Washington (5.8% | 12 votes)
 
New York vs. Los Angeles (21.5% | 44 votes)
 
New York vs. Chicago (7.8% | 16 votes)
 
New York vs. Washington (2.9% | 6 votes)
 
I can’t decide! (1.9% | 4 votes)
 

Total Votes: 204
9:01
Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02
Chaps: 4th option to the 1st question: no, this is going to be the game that ends with a final score of 15-14 where each team has 30+ hits and takes 5+ hours to play

9:02
Paul Swydan: It might be! But tomorrow. Stupid rian.

Read the rest of this entry »


Try to Tell the Difference Between Jake Arrieta and Tanner Roark

I have to admit to a bias. I’ve been aware of Tanner Roark since he entered the major leagues a few years ago, but my evaluation failed to evolve. In my head, Roark was still the guy he was when he made his first impression, as a strike-throwing and hittable sort who seemed to pitch with the intent of beating his peripherals. It is my job to try to know as much as I can, and I concede that this is my own failing, but in my partial defense, Roark hasn’t been close to the most interesting member of the Nationals’ pitching staff. Why would I choose to concentrate on Roark, when I could focus instead on Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg?

I have to admit to another bias. I find it tempting to believe that the larger population perceives things in the same way that I do. I haven’t kept up with Roark; therefore, I bet no one has kept up with Roark. Sometimes this gut feeling is correct. Sometimes, I’m just out of the loop. In any case, I’m about to put you all to the test. This isn’t going to be about me anymore.

Read the rest of this entry »


In Defense of Dusty Baker

Yesterday, the Nationals lost Game 3 of their division series to the Cubs 2-1, and now trail by the same margin in the series. Despite a brilliant outing from Max Scherzer, the Cubs managed to plate a couple of runs against the team’s bullpen, putting the team on the brink of elimination in the first round once again. And because the Cubs got their runs with Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez on the mound, with Max Scherzer, Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle all watching, Dusty Baker has come under fire for his bullpen management once again.

But on this one, I have to say that the criticism feels a bit unfair. If we look at the circumstances and what actually happened, it seems like Baker mostly made reasonable decisions.

Read the rest of this entry »


Postseason Reveals Widening Gap Between Haves, Have Nots

The Indians are the last team of their kind standing, the last small-market club remaining in the playoff field, and it may not be all that surprising.

On Friday, this author wondered whether we might be entering an era of super teams. One reason to think that might be the case? This year, for the first time since 1999, six teams produced run differentials of 140 or greater (the equivalent of about 0.9 runs per game). Also: all eight teams that advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs posted run differentials of 100 or greater. Maybe it’s just an outlying season, maybe it’s nothing. On the other hand, it’s a rare event, fueled also in part by the quantity of non-competitive teams in the sport.

That a lot of those non-competitive teams also possess only modest spending power oughtn’t come as a surprise. In a post last month, Craig Edwards found that baseball’s age of parity was over, that the relationship between wins and payroll has grown stronger.

Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/10

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning! Quick chat today as I want to get to Brewers intrasquad before Fall League gets underway.

12:02
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, let’s do this

12:03
hscer: what’s up with barreto

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Just a 21-year old struggling with his initial taste of the toughest baseball league on the planet. I don’t think he’s a SS but think he’ll hit enough to play wherever he ends up, which will still likely be an up-the-middle position.

12:04
Los doyers: Any doyer kids you see in Az on the brink of making an impact soon? Or all youngins

Read the rest of this entry »