Young Players Are Leading the Rise in Three True Outcomes

The defining characteristic of that period in baseball now known as the PED Era isn’t particularly hard to identify: it was power. Home-run totals increased across the game. The long-standing single-season home-run record was broken multiple times in a few years. And, of course, drug testing ultimately revealed that many players were using steroids and other PEDs specifically to aid their physical strength.

Attempting to find a similarly distinctive trend for the decade-plus since testing began isn’t as easy. For a while, the rise of the strikeout seemed to be a candidate. A combination of increased velocity, better relievers, and a bigger strike zone has caused strikeout rates to increase dramatically in recent seasons.

Over the last couple years, though, we’ve also seen another big rise in homers — a product, it seems, both of a fly-ball revolution and potentially juiced ball. We’ve also witnessed the aforementioned growth of the strike zone begin to stagnate, perhaps even to reverse.

The combination of the strikeouts with the homers over the last few years has led to its own sort of trend: an emergence of hitters who record a lot of strikeouts, walks, and homers — each of the three true outcomes, in other words — without actually hitting the ball in play all that often.

The players responsible for this development are the sort who swing and miss frequently while refusing to offer at pitches on which they’re unable to do damage. To get a sense of who I mean, here’s a list of the top-10 players this season by percentage of plays ending in one of the three true outcomes.

Three True Outcome Leaders in 2017
Name Team PA HR BB SO TTO% wRC+
Joey Gallo Rangers 364 31 45 138 58.8% 125
Aaron Judge Yankees 467 35 81 146 56.1% 174
Miguel Sano Twins 429 25 48 150 52.0% 128
Eric Thames Brewers 417 25 60 122 49.6% 124
Khris Davis Athletics 469 30 53 149 49.5% 126
Trevor Story Rockies 364 15 34 131 49.5% 67
Mike Napoli Rangers 373 22 32 126 48.3% 82
Steven Souza Jr. Rays 446 24 57 128 46.9% 139
Mark Reynolds Rockies 437 23 52 128 46.5% 111
Cody Bellinger Dodgers 385 32 42 103 46.0% 141

That’s a pretty representative collection of the sort of hitter I’m talking about. Not only are these guys refusing to hit balls in play, they’re being rewarded for it: all but two have recorded distinctly above-average batting lines.

And this group of 10 is representative of a larger trend across the league. Consider how TTO% has changed in the 20-plus years since the strike.

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Newsletter: Judge Not Rising

Judge Not Rising

At this point, the concern about Aaron Judge’s second-half performance has passed from hand-wringing over a perceived home run derby curse into something a little more tangible. His streak of consecutive games with at least one strikeout hit 26 last night, which is enough to tie the record for such a single-season streak by a position player. (The overall record is Bill Stoneman’s 37, with his streak lasting through parts of two different seasons. The overall record for a position player is Adam Dunn’s 36, which also ran through two seasons.)  

But those strikeouts, of course, aren’t an isolated problem. The differences between Judge’s first and second half are pretty stark through just about any lens. Part of that is due to just how amazing his first half was—yes, the wRC+ of 75 that he’s compiled through his 106 plate appearances of the second half so far wouldn’t have ever looked good by any stretch of the imagination, but it sure would have looked less bad if it wasn’t next to a first-half figure of a whopping 198. His rate of hard contact has literally almost been cut in half—49 percent of his contact before the break, versus 26 percent since—and his power has dried up, too.

Part of this has been a struggle with breaking and offspeed pitches. Before the All-Star break, he whiffed on 18 and 19 percent of those, respectively. Since? 27 and 26 percent. (He’s whiffed more on regular fastballs, too, but only just barely—an 11 percent figure in the first half compared to 13 percent in the second.) This struggle has been especially apparent when dealing with offspeed and breaking balls that are right over the plate—an area where he rarely whiffed during the first half and has done so quite a bit since.  As the Yankees buckle down for a tight wild card race, with six teams within two and a half games, they can only hope he figures it out soon.  

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Throwback Thursday:

Alex Wood Is Finding His Strikeouts Again

The Dodgers’ Alex Wood is in the midst of a career year. On this day two years ago, Dave Cameron was showing that Wood had been getting his Ks back after being traded from Atlanta. A little time has proven him right—Wood’s two and a half seasons in LA have yielded markedly improved strikeout rates compared to his years in Atlanta. 

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Data Visualization of the Day:
The Mike Trout MVP Precedent

Mike Trout is playing at not just an MVP level, but an all-time great one. Of course, spending six weeks on the disabled list in the middle of the season makes the question of MVP tricky. On FanGraphs this week, Craig Edwards pulls out some historical context to see what’s what.

Excerpt from “From the Fall League to the Owner’s Box” by Shakeia Taylor

“The two share a bond and many things in common. Chief among them? Winning. But perhaps, while Michael Jordan’s influence on Derek Jeter was one of business, Jeter has softened Jordan, revealing a more personable side of him. Either way, Jeter is poised to follow in Jordan’s footsteps once again and become the owner of a sports team, and Jordan may be there every step of the way.”


Effectively Wild Episode 1095: Ken Rosenthal on Sticking to Sports and Pivoting to Video

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the new-look, less-stuff Carter Capps, then bring on MLB on FOX reporter and MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal to discuss how and when Rosenthal relaxes and takes vacations; how baseball news leaks; how the Dodgers’ deep front office works; how he knows when a source has ulterior motives; how he evolved from a beat writer to a well-known national writer, and the differences between covering baseball nationally and locally; whether he’s learned from news-breakers in other sports; his contacts list; the origin of his bowtie-wearing; sticking to sports; Fox’s shift to video and the future of media; and more.
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Phillies Promote Their Best Hitter From Triple-A

Today, the Phillies will add Rhys Hoskins to their roster, bringing him to the Majors as a left fielder after failing to find a trade partner for first baseman Tommy Joseph. A few months ago, manager Pete Mackanin said the two couldn’t coexist on the same National League roster, but after trading Howie Kendrick and losing Aaron Altherr to the disabled list, the team decided it was better to give Hoskins an audition at a spot they needed help than simply bench Joseph to install Hoskins at first base.

I don’t know how the left field experiment is going to go. Based on the outfield performances of other “how bad can he be out there?” first baseman, I’m guessing this will last until Altherr returns, and then everyone will agree they don’t really want to see Hoskins running around the outfield anymore. But despite the possibility of some pretty bad outfield defense, Hoskins still belongs in the Majors, because he’s probably already the team’s best hitter.

From our depth charts, here are the projected rest of season wOBAs for the Phillies position players.

Phillies Hitters Rest of Season
Name PA BA OBP SLG wOBA
Rhys Hoskins 91 0.264 0.343 0.500 0.356
Maikel Franco 192 0.262 0.315 0.461 0.327
Tommy Joseph 176 0.254 0.307 0.464 0.325
Odubel Herrera 194 0.279 0.335 0.424 0.324
Hyun Soo Kim 77 0.269 0.348 0.398 0.324
Aaron Altherr   126 0.248 0.320 0.437 0.322
Daniel Nava 104 0.261 0.346 0.384 0.321
Cesar Hernandez 192 0.278 0.350 0.382 0.320
Nick Williams 110 0.252 0.289 0.436 0.305
Brock Stassi 20 0.238 0.317 0.379 0.303
J.P. Crawford 11 0.236 0.323 0.359 0.300
Cameron Rupp 131 0.230 0.298 0.404 0.299
Scott Kingery 4 0.255 0.300 0.399 0.299
Ty Kelly 4 0.242 0.326 0.345 0.297
Dylan Cozens 5 0.218 0.282 0.416 0.296
Freddy Galvis 197 0.250 0.293 0.401 0.295
Andrew Knapp   60 0.234 0.309 0.364 0.291
Andres Blanco 85 0.238 0.300 0.363 0.289
Roman Quinn   16 0.241 0.304 0.354 0.287
Cam Perkins 33 0.247 0.295 0.368 0.286
Jorge Alfaro 10 0.224 0.267 0.362 0.270

It’s not even all that close, with Hoskins 30 wOBA points ahead of the next best projected hitters. Of course, this projection is entirely based on his minor league performance, so there’s more expected variance around that mean, but it’s pretty obvious Steamer loves Rhys Hoskins. And for good reason; he walks, doesn’t strike out, and hits for power, which are basically the three things you want to do at the plate.

While he’s been a little older than you’d like prospects to be at each level along the minor league ladder, Hoskins’ results have been so overwhelming that Steamer thinks he’s ready to step in and hit big league pitching from day one. As Eric Longenhagen has noted, some scouts have questioned the swing and the power he’ll show in the Majors, but the concerns raised about him are the same ones that were raised about Paul Goldschmidt when he was mostly overlooked as a prospect. You don’t want to project anyone to get to Goldschmidt’s level, but there are some similarities in their scouting profile and minor league performances, so it’s probably best not to buy comments about Hoskins’ limited upside just yet.

If he can hit like Steamer thinks he can hit, he’s going to be the Phillies first baseman for a good long while. And the Phillies offense might be a lot better tonight than it was yesterday.


Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 8/10/17

1:39
Eno Sarris: Apparently this is obpmusic, so it can get on base or what

12:00
Eno Sarris: Let’s!

12:00
Hannah Hochevar: Vampire Tanaka struggled in the evening last night. Was it the dome? Or is there just no rhyme/reason at this point?

12:01
Eno Sarris: As much as I’ve advocated for the no fastball approach, I think it might lead to this sort of thing. Dave Righetti once told me that if you throw that many sliders, you’ll lose it for stretches. He was talking about Romo, who was the original All Breaking Ball Guy.

12:01
Jose: Has the flyball / swing revolution reached the minors? If not, how might that impact guys who look ready to make an impact?

12:02
Eno Sarris: Every day sees more FanGraphs readers in the minor leagues. Absolutely sure there are guys we can find. Look at Hoskins, he’s hitting 50% fly balls and loving life. Ryder Jones just told me he used plate discipline (like Bruce) to lift the ball better.

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Lars Anderson Discovers Japan, Part 4

Earlier this week, we ran what was originally planned as the final installment of a threepart series chronicling Lars Anderson’s experiences playing baseball in Japan. Thanks to popular demand — and Anderson’s interest in sharing additional stories — this is Part 4, with more to come.

———

Lars Anderson: “Birdman Bats’ fearless, peerless leader, Gary Malec made the long trek to visit me in Japan and temporarily join this bizarre circus. He flew into Osaka and took three trains in order to meet the team for our game in Kagawa. As the Fighting Dogs rolled up to the stadium on the team bus, I saw my good friend standing there wearing a Birdman t-shirt and board shirts with his trademark chicken legs sticking out. By his side was a box of bats and a suitcase. He was also sporting a huge, goofy grin. It was a cool moment.

“I met Gary through a mutual friend. We initially bonded over music, going so far as to start the band Daytime Nightlife with Gary’s little brother, Mark. Gary was hand-turning birch bats at the time, which I was obviously intrigued by. They were immaculate as well. As the years progressed and our friendship grew, we decided to use my experience and connections in baseball — and his passion of making baseball bats — to start a baseball bat company.

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That Other Truly Dominant Starting Pitcher

Health is the only real weakness in Paxton’s profile at the moment. (Photo: hj_west)

 
In this, the year during which the all-time record for homers in an MLB season will be broken, there has been no shortage of dominant starting pitcher performances. From Clayton Kershaw to Max Scherzer in the NL to Chris Sale and Corey Kluber in the AL, true greatness has been on display. In this space not too long ago, I dug a little deeper into the exploits of Dodgers lefty Alex Wood. Today, let’s do the same in the AL and give Mariner lefty James Paxton his due.

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Indians Lose Michael Brantley, Add Jay Bruce

It was an eventful 24 hours for the Cleveland Indians outfield. On Tuesday, left fielder Michael Brantley sprained his ankle in a game against the Colorado Rockies, so Wednesday, the team put him on the disabled list and promptly traded for his replacement, Jay Bruce.

Because Bruce cleared waivers last week, the transaction was fairly straightforward. The Mets already knew they weren’t going to get much for him, as every team in baseball passed on taking on the remaining $4 million of his contract. So when Cleveland suddenly needed an outfielder, it represented a chance for the Mets to at least save some money while also freeing up playing time for Dominic Smith at first base. In exchange for assuming responsibility for the remainder of Bruce’s contract this year, Cleveland surrendered just RHP Ryder Ryan, a player so notable that this is the first time his name has ever been mentioned on the site.

Here’s what you need to know about Ryan: he was a 30th-round pick in the 2016 draft and is pitching in relief in A-ball as a 22-year-old. This trade isn’t exactly like the Indians claiming Bruce on waivers and the Mets just letting him go, but it’s basically that.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1094: Not-Live Listener Emails

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about live shows, bounced throws, the spread of “such is life,” stats displayed on baseball broadcasts, more strange fields, a Dan Haren rules question, and the best non-All-Star seasons, then answer more listener emails about the Angels and Albert Pujols, an odd Brian Dozier game, crooked numbers, Chris Tillman’s first-inning problems, the Dodgers’ World Series odds, Corey Kluber’s breaking-ball usage, and more.
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Alex Wood’s Worrisome Trend

About a month ago, the notion of adding Yu Darvish seemed to be something of a luxury for the Dodgers. After all, not only had the Dodgers emerged as the best team in baseball, they had entered the season with the most pitching depth in the game.

But then Clayton Kershaw was sent to the DL, a place where Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir and Hyun-Jin Ryu have resided at times this season — and where they have been placed often throughout their careers. Read the rest of this entry »