Projecting Victor Caratini

Following Miguel Montero’s kerfluffle with Jake Arrieta, the Cubs designated Montero for assignment today. In his place, they called up Victor Caratini from Triple-A. The switch-hitting Caratini had been tearing up PCL pitching this season to the tune of .343/.384/.539. Needless to say, that’s mighty exciting coming from a catcher. Caratini’s offensive profile is built around an encouraging combination of contact and power. At Triple-A this season, he struck out in less than 15% of his plate appearances while posting an ISO just south of .200. The latter was largely due to his 20 doubles. Caratini has also run high walk rates in the past.

KATOH likes Caratini more than most, projecting him for 5.1 WAR over his first six seasons by stats-only KATOH and 3.7 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his prospect ranking. Those marks place him 80th and 100th, respectively, among prospects. Caratini doesn’t even sniff most scouting-based top-100 lists.

To put some faces to Caratini’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Caratini’s Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

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Welcome to the Strike Zone, Sean Newcomb

All along, Sean Newcomb has been very much an individual pitching prospect. And yet, he’s also been several pitching prospects, innumerable pitching prospects. Newcomb has been one of so many young pitchers with tantalizing stuff, but just not enough control. Every single one of those pitchers has always been unique, but it’s such a familiar profile. Throwing hard is hard. Throwing different pitches hard is hard. Controlling those pitches might be the hardest thing of all. Newcomb’s always been young, so he’s always had time, but each and every one of us has been burned. We all recall that pitchers who just couldn’t make it.

After being drafted in the first round some years back by the Angels, Newcomb was good without being very good. In 2015, he missed bats, but he yielded too many walks. In 2016, he missed bats, but he yielded too many walks. Earlier in the minors in 2017, he missed bats, but he yielded too many walks. There were small signs of progress, sure, but nothing dramatic. Newcomb remained a work in progress.

Here we are now, suddenly, with Newcomb having started four games in the majors. And he’s…thrown strikes. Newcomb has left his old identity behind.

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The Legacies of Anthony Young

Former Mets pitcher Anthony Young died Tuesday after a fight with cancer, an inoperable brain tumor, at 51.

Teammates say he was known for his dignity and grace, characteristics he demonstrated through what his career is remembered for: losing 27 consecutive decisions between the 1992 and 1993 seasons, the longest streak in major-league history.

He died on the anniversary of his 24th consecutive loss on June 27, 1993, which set the major-league record.

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Another Reason the Brewers Sit in First Place

Give this to the Brewers — as much as everyone still expects them to fade, they haven’t faded yet. They’ve played at least .500 baseball in April, May, and June, and they’ve held at least a share of first place in the National League Central for more than a month. Sure, the Cubs remain the favorites. Sure, the Cubs are the more talented ballclub. But the Brewers have effectively cut the season in half, which does wonders for both the odds and morale. The first-half Brewers have been a great story.

A team doesn’t overachieve without players doing the same, and we’ve dedicated posts to several of Milwaukee’s pleasant surprises. We spent the whole first month writing about Eric Thames, and we’ve also addressed Jimmy Nelson, Corey Knebel, and so on. There’s another player I’ve been intending to write about, too. The Brewers rank eighth in baseball in starting-rotation WAR, and Nelson’s the leader of the group. And yet he is only barely holding off Chase Anderson.

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Michael Conforto on His June Swoon

Coming into the season, Michael Conforto saw opportunity with the Mets despite a crowded outfield. He seized his chance early in the year and was among the majors’ best players in April and May. Then the league made an adjustment, one with which he’s struggling to adjust back. You could call that regression. You could also just call it baseball — as the player himself did recently with a shrug — but that ebb and flow is important. He needs to figure out this latest puzzle to get back on track.

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Daily Prospect Notes: 6/28

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Adbert Alzolay, RHP, Chicago NL (Profile)
Level: Hi-A Age: 22   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 R, 7 K

Notes
His delivery is a bit rough (though it’s more efficient than it used to be), but Alzolay has good stuff, sitting in the mid-90s and topping out at 97 with arm-side run. He’ll flash an average changeup and can vary his breaking ball’s shape, at times exhibiting 12-6 movement and showing two-plane wipe at others. He has a chance for a plus-plus fastball an two solid-average secondaries, perhaps a tick above, to go with fringe command.

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Let’s Do the Math on Miguel Montero and Jake Arrieta

*Update: Miguel Montero will be designated for assignment, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago.

The Cubs had a rough evening in Washington on Tuesday.

Yes, Trea Turner can really run, as verified by the latest Statcast tool — Sprint Speed — available to the masses. (Turner is the right-most purple dot in the chart below.)

But the Cubs lost complete control of the running game last night, allowing a total of seven stolen bases (including four to Turner alone) in a 6-1 loss to Washington.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 6/28/17

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:02
Dave Cameron: You know the underrated part of being on crutches? It’s really hard to take stuff with you when you move. Hey, neat, I got this fruit out of the refrigerator… now how do I get it to the table?

12:03
Dave Cameron: Anyway, let’s talk baseball for the next hour or so.

12:03
Dave Cameron: Or the joy of having your knee cut open, if you’re into that kind of thing.

12:03
Jeries: What is the most common reason for relievers being unable to start: lack of a third pitch or lack of stamina?

12:04
Dave Cameron: Can’t get opposite handed hitters out.

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NERD Game Scores for June 28, 2017

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric forefather Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game.

How are they calculated? Haphazardly, is how. An explanation of the components and formulae which produce these NERD scores is available here. All objections to the numbers here are probably justified, on account of how this entire endeavor is absurd.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Milwaukee at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
Anderson (89.1 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Castillo (5.0 IP, 120 xFIP-)
The author’s haphazardly constructed algorithm has identified today’s Brewers-Reds game as the day’s most promising — in no small part due to the presence of young right-hander Luis Castillo. Castillo hasn’t pitched a sufficient quantity of innings to receive a proper NERD score. At my discretion, however, he’s received a nearly perfect mark due to his debut performance, during which he recorded an average fastball velocity of 98.3 mph, a figure that would place him first among all qualifiers by that measure. He would appear to have some capacity either for thrilling or delighting or both thrilling and delighting.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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What Can Speed Do?

Over at Baseball Savant, another Statcast leaderboard has been rolled out. This one relates to speed. They are calling it Sprint Speed, and the definition is as follows:

Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window.” The Major League average on a “max effort” play is 27 ft/sec, and the max effort range is roughly from 23 ft/sec (poor) to 30 ft/sec (elite). A player must have at least 10 max effort runs to qualify for this leaderboard.

While Sprint Speed has been used for a while, we didn’t have leaderboards until now. Mike Petriello over at MLB.com has a full article on the rollout which I would recommend. Among the highlights: Sprint Speed correlates well from year to year; it doesn’t require a large sample to become reflective of true talent (Petriello compares speed to fastball velocity); and it might be useful when attempting to identify injuries that could be slowing players down.

So, we know that the metric can tell us who is fast and who is not. That’s helpful. I wondered if it might also be able tell us anything about any other statistics.

Before trying to predict the future or look at past years, I thought it might be useful to compare speed to the stats we have and see how they compare. While the leaderboard over at Statcast features nearly 350 names (every player who’s produced 10 or more max-speed data points), those sample sizes might be a bit too small when looking at other statistics. As a result, I narrowed the sample for this study down to the 166 players who were qualified at the end of Monday’s games.

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