The man with a 96 mph fastball and devastating changeup looks more himself these days. Danny Salazar is back up with the Indians, dealing, and was even name-checked by his General Manager as a deadline acquisition that should make their rotation hum this postseason. It could just be two good starts, but his pitching mix is radically changed. And though that change looks drastic, the driver of change might actually be more subtle.

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If you read this past Sunday’s notes column, you know that Lars Anderson is playing for an independent league team in Japan. The adventure-seeking former big-leaguer — and his Kochi Fighting Dogs teammate Manny Ramirez —were featured prominently. I concluded the segment by saying that we’d hear more from Anderson about his experiences playing baseball on the other side of the world in the near future.

As promised, here is the first installment of Lars Anderson Discovers Japan.

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Is there anyone having a weirder season than Masahiro Tanaka? Dude is in the top fifteen when it comes to strikeouts minus walks, and yet he’s got an ERA over five. He’s been better recently! And he’s done it by… refusing to throw fastballs. Despite this wrinkle, he’s still giving up nearly two home runs per game. We haven’t even gotten to the weird day/night splits, but they’re part of the story, too. Weird.

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To make sense of things, to organize, to help create narratives, we, as humans, like to put labels on things. We like to place people and items in specific bins. And at trade deadline time, we typically categorize teams as either buyers or sellers. I am guilty of this and it does serve a practical purpose. Generally by the end of July, teams have a pretty good idea if they are contenders or looking ahead to next season.

But things are more complicated than they once were as the two wild cards — in addition to five-team divisions — have muddied the waters of the deadline market. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in 1906, the Chicago Cubs won 116 games, lost just 36, and put up a .763 win percentage equivalent to 124 wins in a 162-game schedule. Over the next 50 or so years, three other teams won at least 110 games, and another 11 posted at least 105 wins in a season. In 1961, Major League Baseball added eight more games to the schedule, giving us the 162-game schedule that we have today. Over the next 55 years, only two teams won more than 110 games, with more teams equaling greater parity, making it tougher to put up gaudy win totals. The New York Yankees put up a modern-day record 114 wins in 1998 on their way to a World Series title, but they were bested by the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who tied the all-time record by winning 116 games on their way to not winning the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers are perhaps the first team since with a shot at topping the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners. The Dodgers have a shot at 117.

After all the moves at the trade deadline, the Dodgers’ record stood at 74-31, a .705 winning percentage, best in all of baseball by a healthy margin over the Houston Astros. If we assume the Dodgers would just win games at the same rate going forward, the team would end up with 114 wins. Here are a few different scenarios for LA going forward:

• If they go roughly .500 (28-27), they will finish with 102 wins.
• If they hit their rest-of season projections (34-23), they will finish with 108 wins, which would be tied for fifth since 1961, and also behind the 1927 Yankees and a few teams from more than 100 years ago.
• If they continue at their current pace of wins (40-17), they will win 114 games, tied for third with the 1998 Yankees and behind only the 2001 Mariners and the 1906 Cubs.
• If they play their final 57 games like their most recent 57 games (46-11), they will finish with 120 wins, four more than any other team.

While outplaying their projections by the seven games necessary to tie the record and eight games better to beat the record isn’t exactly likely, their record thus far, especially since mid-May indicates it is something the team is capable of. Losing Clayton Kershaw for any amount of time is certainly a blow, but picking up Yu Darvish and getting massive reinforcements for the bullpen certainly lessens that loss and could make the team even better. Read the rest of this entry »

James Paxton had a pretty bad June. His season got off to a wonderful start, but then he landed on the DL, and shortly after his return, the calendar flipped and pitching was hard again. Paxton in June ran a 7+ ERA, and opponents blasted him to the tune of a .395 wOBA. Something appeared to be seriously wrong, but Paxton blamed his mechanics, and not his health. He found that he had some straightening out to do.

For me, one of the fundamental markers of greatness is the ability to adjust on the fly. It’s one thing to play well, but it’s quite another to play well, then struggle, then get back to playing well again. We’ve recently seen this with, say, Rich Hill. And, of course, we’ve seen this with Paxton. Paxton started six games in July, and he won each of them. He issued a total of just six walks, and he trimmed that .395 June wOBA almost literally in half. Paxton has gotten himself back on track, and I don’t know what more evidence people might need. James Paxton is extremely good. He is sufficiently proven.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Salina, skateboarding, and Albert Pujols, then break down all the big (and modest) trade-deadline deals and non-deals, paying particular attention to the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the competitive landscape with two months remaining in the regular season.

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